Clinical and Epidemiological Findings from Enhanced Monkeypox Surveillance in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo During 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox is a poorly described emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and Western Africa. METHODS: Using surveillance data from Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2011-2015, we evaluated differences in incidence, exposures, and clinical presentation of polymerase chain reaction-confirmed cases by sex and age. RESULTS: We report 1057 confirmed cases. The average annual incidence was 14.1 per 100 000 (95% confidence interval, 13.3-15.0). The incidence was higher in male patients (incidence rate ratio comparing males to females, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.37), except among those 20-29 years old (0.70; .51-.95). Females aged 20-29 years also reported a high frequency of exposures (26.2%) to people with monkeypox-like symptoms.The highest incidence was among 10-19-year-old males, the cohort reporting the highest proportion of animal exposures (37.5%). The incidence was lower among those presumed to have received smallpox vaccination than among those presumed unvaccinated. No differences were observed by age group in lesion count or lesion severity score. CONCLUSIONS: Monkeypox incidence was twice that reported during 1980-1985, an increase possibly linked to declining immunity provided by smallpox vaccination. The high proportion of cases attributed to human exposures suggests changing exposure patterns. Cases were distributed across age and sex, suggesting frequent exposures that follow sociocultural norms.

A Tale of Two Viruses: Coinfections of Monkeypox and Varicella Zoster Virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Recent enhanced monkeypox (MPX) surveillance in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where MPX is endemic, has uncovered multiple cases of MPX and varicella zoster virus (VZV) coinfections. The purpose of this study was to verify if coinfections occur and to characterize the clinical nature of these cases. Clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory results were used to investigate MPX/VZV coinfections. A coinfection was defined as a patient with at least one Orthopoxvirus/MPX-positive sample and at least one VZV-positive sample within the same disease event. Between September 2009 and April 2014, 134 of the 1,107 (12.1%) suspected MPX cases were confirmed as MPX/VZV coinfections. Coinfections were more likely to report symptoms than VZV-alone cases and less likely than MPX-alone cases. Significantly higher lesion counts were observed for coinfection cases than for VZV-alone but less than MPX-alone cases. Discernible differences in symptom and rash severity were detected for coinfection cases compared with those with MPX or VZV alone. Findings indicate infection with both MPX and VZV could modulate infection severity. Collection of multiple lesion samples allows for the opportunity to detect coinfections. As this program continues, it will be important to continue these procedures to assess variations in the proportion of coinfected cases over time.

Varicella in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, 2009-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To describe varicella cases in Tshuapa Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo identified during monkeypox surveillance. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and epidemiological data were collected from each suspected monkeypox case 2009-2014. Samples were tested by PCR for both Orthopoxviruses and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); a subset of VZV-positive samples was genotyped. We defined a varicella case as a rash illness with laboratory-confirmed VZV. RESULTS: There were 366 varicella cases were identified; 66% were ≤19 years old. Most patients had non-typical varicella rash with lesions reported as the same size and stage of evolution (86%), deep and profound (91%), on palms of hands and/or soles of feet (86%) and not itchy (49%). Many had non-typical signs and symptoms, such as lymphadenopathy (70%) and sensitivity to light (23%). A higher proportion of persons aged ≥20 years than persons aged ≤19 years had ≥50 lesions (79% vs. 65%, P = 0.007) and were bedridden (15% vs. 9%, P = 0.056). All VZV isolates genotyped from 79 varicella cases were clade 5. During the surveillance period, one possible VZV-related death occurred in a 7-year-old child. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of patients presented with non-typical varicella rash and clinical signs and symptoms, highlighting challenges identifying varicella in an area with endemic monkeypox. Continued surveillance and laboratory diagnosis will help in rapid identification and control of both monkeypox and varicella and improve our understanding of varicella epidemiology in Africa.

OBJECTIF: Décrire les cas de varicelle identifiés dans la province de Tshuapa en République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) au cours de la surveillance de la variole du singe (monkeypox). MÉTHODES: Des données démographiques, cliniques et épidémiologiques ont été recueillies pour chaque cas présumé de monkeypox entre 2009 et 2014. Les échantillons ont été testés par PCR pour les orthopoxvirus et le virus varicelle-zona (VZV); un sous-ensemble d'échantillons positifs au VZV a été génotypé. Nous avons défini un cas de varicelle comme une éruption cutanée avec confirmation du VZV en laboratoire. RÉSULTATS: 366 cas de varicelle ont été identifiés; 66% avaient 19 ans ou moins. La plupart des patients présentaient une éruption non typique de varicelle avec des lésions rapportées de la même taille et le même stade d'évolution (86%), profonds (91%), sur la paume des mains et/ou la plante des pieds (86%), sans démangeaisons (49%). Nombre d'entre eux présentaient des signes et des symptômes inhabituels, tels qu'une adénopathie lymphatique (70%) et une sensibilité à la lumière (23%). Une proportion plus élevée de personnes âgées de 20 ans et plus que de personnes âgées de 19 ans et moins avaient 50 lésions ou plus (79% contre 65%, p = 0,007) et étaient alitées (15% contre 9%; p = 0,056). Tous les isolats de VZV génotypés chez 79 cas de varicelle appartenaient au clade 5. Au cours de la période de surveillance, un décès possible lié au VZV est survenu chez un enfant de 7 ans. CONCLUSIONS: Une forte proportion de patients ont présenté une éruption de varicelle ainsi que des signes et symptômes cliniques non typiques, soulignant les difficultés rencontrées pour identifier la varicelle dans une zone endémique pour le monkeypox. Une surveillance continue et des diagnostics de laboratoire aideront à identifier et à contrôler rapidement le monkeypox et la varicelle et à améliorer notre compréhension sur l'épidémiologie de la varicelle en Afrique.

Epidemiologic and Ecologic Investigations of Monkeypox, Likouala Department, Republic of the Congo, 2017.

Monkeypox, caused by a zoonotic orthopoxvirus, is endemic in Central and West Africa. Monkeypox has been sporadically reported in the Republic of the Congo. During March 22-April 5, 2017, we investigated 43 suspected human monkeypox cases. We interviewed suspected case-patients and collected dried blood strips and vesicular and crust specimens (active lesions), which we tested for orthopoxvirus antibodies by ELISA and monkeypox virus and varicella zoster virus DNA by PCR. An ecologic investigation was conducted around Manfouété, and specimens from 105 small mammals were tested for anti-orthopoxvirus antibodies or DNA. Among the suspected human cases, 22 met the confirmed, probable, and possible case definitions. Only 18 patients had available dried blood strips; 100% were IgG positive, and 88.9% (16/18) were IgM positive. Among animals, only specimens from Cricetomys giant pouched rats showed presence of orthopoxvirus antibodies, adding evidence to this species' involvement in the transmission and maintenance of monkeypox virus in nature.

Frameworks for Preventing, Detecting, and Controlling Zoonotic Diseases.

Preventing zoonotic diseases requires coordinated actions by government authorities responsible for human and animal health. Constructing the frameworks needed to foster intersectoral collaboration can be approached in many ways. We highlight 3 examples of approaches to implement zoonotic disease prevention and control programs. The first, rabies control in Ethiopia, was implemented using an umbrella approach: a comprehensive program designed for accelerated impact. The second, a monkeypox program in Democratic Republic of the Congo, was implemented in a stepwise manner, whereby incremental improvements and activities were incorporated into the program. The third approach, a pathogen discovery program, applied in the country of Georgia, was designed to characterize and understand the ecology, epidemiology, and pathogenesis of a new zoonotic pathogen. No one approach is superior, but various factors should be taken into account during design, planning, and implementation.

Assessing Monkeypox Virus Prevalence in Small Mammals at the Human-Animal Interface in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

During 2012, 2013 and 2015, we collected small mammals within 25 km of the town of Boende in Tshuapa Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in this area is unknown; however, cases of human infection were previously confirmed near these collection sites. Samples were collected from 353 mammals (rodents, shrews, pangolins, elephant shrews, a potamogale, and a hyrax). Some rodents and shrews were captured from houses where human monkeypox cases have recently been identified, but most were trapped in forests and agricultural areas near villages. Real-time PCR and ELISA were used to assess evidence of MPXV infection and other Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infections in these small mammals. Seven (2.0%) of these animal samples were found to be anti-orthopoxvirus immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody positive (six rodents: two Funisciurus spp.; one Graphiurus lorraineus; one Cricetomys emini; one Heliosciurus sp.; one Oenomys hypoxanthus, and one elephant shrew Petrodromus tetradactylus); no individuals were found positive in PCR-based assays. These results suggest that a variety of animals can be infected with OPXVs, and that epidemiology studies and educational campaigns should focus on animals that people are regularly contacting, including larger rodents used as protein sources.

Enhancing case definitions for surveillance of human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: Human monkeypox (MPX) occurs at appreciable rates in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Infection with varicella zoster virus (VZV) has a similar presentation to that of MPX, and in areas where MPX is endemic these two illnesses are commonly mistaken. This study evaluated the diagnostic utility of two surveillance case definitions for MPX and specific clinical characteristics associated with laboratory-confirmed MPX cases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data from a cohort of suspect MPX cases (identified by surveillance over the course of a 42 month period during 2009-2014) from DRC were used; real-time PCR diagnostic test results were used to establish MPX and VZV diagnoses. A total of 333 laboratory-confirmed MPX cases, 383 laboratory-confirmed VZV cases, and 36 cases that were determined to not be either MPX or VZV were included in the analyses. Significant (p<0.05) differences between laboratory-confirmed MPX and VZV cases were noted for several signs/symptoms including key rash characteristics. Both surveillance case definitions had high sensitivity and low specificities for individuals that had suspected MPX virus infections. Using 12 signs/symptoms with high sensitivity and/or specificity values, a receiver operator characteristic analysis showed that models for MPX cases that had the presence of 'fever before rash' plus at least 7 or 8 of the 12 signs/symptoms demonstrated a more balanced performance between sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory-confirmed MPX and VZV cases presented with many of the same signs and symptoms, and the analysis here emphasized the utility of including 12 specific signs/symptoms when investigating MPX cases. In order to document and detect endemic human MPX cases, a surveillance case definition with more specificity is needed for accurate case detection. In the absence of a more specific case definition, continued emphasis on confirmatory laboratory-based diagnostics is warranted.

Characterization of Monkeypox virus infection in African rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.).

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease endemic in Central and West Africa and is caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), the most virulent Orthopoxvirus affecting humans since the eradication of Variola virus (VARV). Many aspects of the MPXV transmission cycle, including the natural host of the virus, remain unknown. African rope squirrels (Funisciurus spp.) are considered potential reservoirs of MPXV, as serosurveillance data in Central Africa has confirmed the circulation of the virus in these rodent species [1,2]. In order to understand the tissue tropism and clinical signs associated with infection with MPXV in these species, wild-caught rope squirrels were experimentally infected via intranasal and intradermal exposure with a recombinant MPXV strain from Central Africa engineered to express the luciferase gene. After infection, we monitored viral replication and shedding via in vivo bioluminescent imaging, viral culture and real time PCR. MPXV infection in African rope squirrels caused mortality and moderate to severe morbidity, with clinical signs including pox lesions in the skin, eyes, mouth and nose, dyspnea, and profuse nasal discharge. Both intranasal and intradermal exposures induced high levels of viremia, fast systemic spread, and long periods of viral shedding. Shedding and luminescence peaked at day 6 post infection and was still detectable after 15 days. Interestingly, one sentinel animal, housed in the same room but in a separate cage, also developed severe MPX disease and was euthanized. This study indicates that MPXV causes significant pathology in African rope squirrels and infected rope squirrels shed large quantities of virus, supporting their role as a potential source of MPXV transmission to humans and other animals in endemic MPX regions.

Exposure to Lyssaviruses in Bats of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Lyssavirus infections in the Democratic Republic of Congo are poorly documented. We examined 218 bats. No lyssavirus antigens were detected but Lagos bat virus (LBV) neutralizing antibodies (VNA) were detected in Eidolon helvum and Myonycteris torquata . Four samples with LBV VNA reacted against Shimoni bat virus.

Presumptive risk factors for monkeypox in rural communities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a close relative of Variola virus, is a zoonotic virus with an unknown reservoir. Interaction with infected wildlife, bites from peri-domestic animals, and bushmeat hunting are hypothesized routes of infection from wildlife to humans. Using a Risk Questionnaire, performed in monkeypox-affected areas of rural Democratic Republic of the Congo, we describe the lifestyles and demographics associated with presumptive risk factors for MPXV infection. We generated two indices to assess risk: Household Materials Index (HMI), a proxy for socioeconomic status of households and Risk Activity Index (RAI), which describes presumptive risk for animal-to-human transmission of MPXV. Based on participant self-reported activity patterns, we found that people in this population are more likely to visit the forest than a market to fulfill material needs, and that the reported occupation is limited in describing behavior of individuals may participate. Being bitten by rodents in the home was commonly reported, and this was significantly associated with a low HMI. The highest scoring RAI sub-groups were 'hunters' and males aged ≥ 18 years; however, several activities involving MPXV-implicated animals were distributed across all sub-groups. The current analysis may be useful in identifying at-risk groups and help to direct education, outreach and prevention efforts more efficiently.

Evaluation of the GeneXpert for Human Monkeypox Diagnosis.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a zoonotic orthopoxvirus (OPX), is endemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Currently, diagnostic assays for human monkeypox (MPX) focus on real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays, which are typically performed in sophisticated laboratory settings. Herein, we evaluated the accuracy and utility of a multiplex MPX assay using the GeneXpert platform, a portable rapid diagnostic device that may serve as a point-of-care test to diagnose infections in endemic areas. The multiplex MPX/OPX assay includes a MPX-specific PCR test, OPX-generic PCR test, and an internal control PCR test. In total, 164 diagnostic specimens (50 crusts and 114 vesicular swabs) were collected from suspected MPX cases in Tshuapa Province, DRC, under national surveillance guidelines. The specimens were tested with the GeneXpert MPX/OPX assay and an OPX PCR assay at the Institut National de Recherche Biomedicale (INRB) in Kinshasa. Aliquots of each specimen were tested in parallel with a MPX-specific PCR assay at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results of the MPX PCR were used as the gold standard for all analyses. The GeneXpert MPX/OPX assay performed at INRB had a sensitivity of 98.8% and specificity of 100%. The GeneXpert assay performed well with both crust and vesicle samples. The GeneXpert MPX/OPX test incorporates a simple methodology that performs well in both laboratory and field conditions, suggesting its viability as a diagnostic platform that may expand and expedite current MPX detection capabilities.

Phylogeography of the heavily poached African common pangolin (Pholidota, Manis tricuspis) reveals six cryptic lineages as traceable signatures of Pleistocene diversification.

Knowledge on faunal diversification in African rainforests remains scarce. We used phylogeography to assess (i) the role of Pleistocene climatic oscillations in the diversification of the African common pangolin (Manis tricuspis) and (ii) the utility of our multilocus approach for taxonomic delineation and trade tracing of this heavily poached species. We sequenced 101 individuals for two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), two nuclear DNA and one Y-borne gene fragments (totalizing 2602 bp). We used a time-calibrated, Bayesian inference phylogenetic framework and conducted character-based, genetic and phylogenetic delineation of species hypotheses within African common pangolins. We identified six geographic lineages partitioned into western Africa, Ghana, the Dahomey Gap, western central Africa, Gabon and central Africa, all diverging during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. MtDNA (cytochrome b + control region) was the sole locus to provide diagnostic characters for each of the six lineages. Tree-based Bayesian delimitation methods using single- and multilocus approaches gave high support for 'species' level recognition of the six African common pangolin lineages. Although the diversification of African common pangolins occurred during Pleistocene cyclical glaciations, causative correlation with traditional rainforest refugia and riverine barriers in Africa was not straightforward. We conclude on the existence of six cryptic lineages within African common pangolins, which might be of major relevance for future conservation strategies. The high discriminative power of the mtDNA markers used in this study should allow an efficient molecular tracing of the regional origin of African common pangolin seizures.

Extended Human-to-Human Transmission during a Monkeypox Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

A >600% increase in monkeypox cases occurred in the Bokungu Health Zone of the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the second half of 2013; this increase prompted an outbreak investigation. A total of 104 possible cases were reported from this health zone; among 60 suspected cases that were tested, 50 (48.1%) cases were confirmed by laboratory testing, and 10 (9.6%) tested negative for monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection. The household attack rate (i.e., rate of persons living with an infected person that develop symptoms of MPXV infection) was 50%. Nine families showed >1 transmission event, and >6 transmission events occurred within this health zone. Mean incubation period was 8 days (range 4-14 days). The high attack rate and transmission observed in this study reinforce the importance of surveillance and rapid identification of monkeypox cases. Community education and training are needed to prevent transmission of MPXV infection during outbreaks.

Laboratory Investigations of African Pouched Rats (Cricetomys gambianus) as a Potential Reservoir Host Species for Monkeypox Virus.

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease endemic to central and western Africa, where it is a major public health concern. Although Monkeypox virus (MPXV) and monkeypox disease in humans have been well characterized, little is known about its natural history, or its maintenance in animal populations of sylvatic reservoir(s). In 2003, several species of rodents imported from Ghana were involved in a monkeypox outbreak in the United States with individuals of three African rodent genera (Cricetomys, Graphiurus, Funisciurus) shown to be infected with MPXV. Here, we examine the course of MPXV infection in Cricetomys gambianus (pouched Gambian rats) and this rodent species' competence as a host for the virus. We obtained ten Gambian rats from an introduced colony in Grassy Key, Florida and infected eight of these via scarification with a challenge dose of 4X104 plaque forming units (pfu) from either of the two primary clades of MPXV: Congo Basin (C-MPXV: n = 4) or West African (W-MPXV: n = 4); an additional 2 animals served as PBS controls. Viral shedding and the effect of infection on activity and physiological aspects of the animals were measured. MPXV challenged animals had significantly higher core body temperatures, reduced activity and increased weight loss than PBS controls. Viable virus was found in samples taken from animals in both experimental groups (C-MPXV and W-MPXV) between 3 and 27 days post infection (p.i.) (up to 1X108 pfu/ml), with viral DNA found until day 56 p.i. The results from this work show that Cricetomys gambianus (and by inference, probably the closely related species, Cricetomys emini) can be infected with MPXV and shed viable virus particles; thus suggesting that these animals may be involved in the maintenance of MPXV in wildlife mammalian populations. More research is needed to elucidate the epidemiology of MPXV and the role of Gambian rats and other species.

Novel Paramyxoviruses in Bats from Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007-2012.

As part of a larger survey for detection of pathogens among wildlife in sub-Saharan Africa conducted during 2007-2012, multiple diverse paramyxovirus sequences were detected in renal tissues of bats. Phylogenetic analysis supports the presence of at least 2 major viral lineages and suggests that paramyxoviruses are strongly associated with several bat genera.

Human Monkeypox in the Kivus, a Conflict Region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic Orthopoxvirus infection endemic in central and western Africa. Human MPX cases occur in the central and northern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and this is the first report of confirmed MPX cases in the forested areas of North and South Kivu Provinces, with a detailed epidemiological investigation for one case. The location of each case is within areas predicted to be suitable for MPX virus transmission based on an ecological niche model. Phylogenetic analysis places these viruses in the Congo Basin clade.

Introduction of Monkeypox into a Community and Household: Risk Factors and Zoonotic Reservoirs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

An increased incidence of monkeypox (MPX) infections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was noted by the regional surveillance system in October 2013. Little information exists regarding how MPX is introduced into the community and the factors associated with transmission within the household. Sixty-eight wild animals were collected and tested for Orthopoxvirus. Two of three rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.) were positive for antibodies to Orthopoxviruses; however, no increased risk was associated with the consumption or preparation of rope squirrels. A retrospective cohort investigation and a case-control investigation were performed to identify risk factors affecting the introduction of monkeypox virus (MPXV) into the community and transmission within the home. School-age males were the individuals most frequently identified as the first person infected in the household and were the group most frequently affected overall. Risk factors of acquiring MPXV in a household included sleeping in the same room or bed, or using the same plate or cup as the primary case. There was no significant risk associated with eating or processing of wild animals. Activities associated with an increased risk of MPXV transmission all have potential for virus exposure to the mucosa.

A phylogeographic investigation of African monkeypox.

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease caused by a virus member of the genus Orthopoxvirus and is endemic to Central and Western African countries. Previous work has identified two geographically disjuct clades of monkeypox virus based on the analysis of a few genomes coupled with epidemiological and clinical analyses; however, environmental and geographic causes of this differentiation have not been explored. Here, we expand previous phylogenetic studies by analyzing a larger set of monkeypox virus genomes originating throughout Sub-Saharan Africa to identify possible biogeographic barriers associated with genetic differentiation; and projected ecological niche models onto environmental conditions at three periods in the past to explore the potential role of climate oscillations in the evolution of the two primary clades. Analyses supported the separation of the Congo Basin and West Africa clades; the Congo Basin clade shows much shorter branches, which likely indicate a more recent diversification of isolates within this clade. The area between the Sanaga and Cross Rivers divides the two clades and the Dahomey Gap seems to have also served as a barrier within the West African clade. Contraction of areas with suitable environments for monkeypox virus during the Last Glacial Maximum, suggests that the Congo Basin clade of monkeypox virus experienced a severe bottleneck and has since expanded its geographic range.

Enhancing health care worker ability to detect and care for patients with monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox (MPX) is an endemic disease of public health importance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In 2010, the DRC Ministry of Health joined with external partners to improve MPX surveillance in the Tshuapa Health District of DRC. A pivotal component of the program is training of health zone personnel in surveillance methods and patient care. In this report we evaluate outcomes of the training program. METHODS: Health care worker knowledge of key concepts in the MPX training curriculum was assessed using an anonymous self-administered survey. Additionally, evaluators collected feedback about the capacity of participants to perform the surveillance tasks. Training impacts were determined by assessing various surveillance performance metrics. RESULTS: Correct trainee responses to questions about MPX symptoms and patient care increased significantly upon completion of training events. During the 12 months after the initial training, the proportion of suspected cases investigated increased significantly (from 6.7 to 37.3%), as compared to the 5 months prior. However, the proportion of reported cases that were ultimately confirmed remained unchanged, 20.1% (5/24) vs 23.3% (60/257). CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that the MPX curriculum developed for this initiative was effective in transferring knowledge and was associated with improved detection of human MPX cases.

Mapping monkeypox transmission risk through time and space in the Congo Basin.

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.