Interactions of allelic variance of PNPLA3 with nongenetic factors in predicting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and nonhepatic complications of severe obesity.

OBJECTIVE: Allelic variation (rs738409C→G) in adiponutrin (patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3, PNPLA3) has been associated with hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis. The physiologic impact of the PNPLA3 G allele may be exacerbated in patients with severe obesity. In this study, we investigated the interactions of PNPLA3 rs738409 with a broad panel of metabolic and histologic characteristics of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in patients with medically complicated obesity. DESIGN AND METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing bariatric surgery were selected for a prospective study. They underwent extensive laboratory and histologic (liver biopsy) assessment, as well as evaluation of rs738409 polymorphism by TaqMan assay. RESULTS: Only 12 (8.3%) of the 144 patients had normal liver histology, with 72 (50%) NASH, of whom 15 (10.4% of total patients) had fibrosis stage 2-3. PNPLA3 GG genotype correlated positively (P < 0.05) with serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), asparate aminotransferase (AST), glucose, fibrinogen, and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance, and presence of NASH. Multivariate analysis indicated that PNPLA3 rs738409 G versus C allele remained an (independent) risk factor for NASH, in addition to CK-18 >145 IU/l, glucose >100 mg/dl, and C-reactive protein (CRP) >0.8 mg/dl. The probability of NASH increased from 9% (no risk factor) to 82% if all four risk factors were present. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with medically complicated obesity, PNPLA3 rs738409 G allelic expression is associated with hepatic (NASH) and nonhepatic complications of obesity, such as insulin resistance. These novel findings may be related to a greater impact of PNPLA3 variant in magnitude and scope in patients with severe obesity than in less obese populations. Further studies are needed to characterize the nature of these associations.

Acute lung injury prediction score: derivation and validation in a population-based sample.

Early recognition of patients at high risk of acute lung injury (ALI) is critical for successful enrollment of patients in prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. We aimed to develop and prospectively validate an ALI prediction score in a population-based sample of patients at risk. In a retrospective derivation cohort, predisposing conditions for ALI were identified at the time of hospital admission. The score was calculated based on the results of logistic regression analysis. Prospective validation was performed in an independent cohort of patients at risk identified at the time of hospital admission. In a derivation cohort of 409 patients with ALI risk factors, the lung injury prediction score discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.89; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.60). The performance was similar in a prospective validation cohort of 463 patients at risk of ALI (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.88). ALI prediction scores identify patients at high risk for ALI before intensive care unit admission. If externally validated, this model will serve to define the population of patients at high risk for ALI in whom future mechanistic studies and ALI prevention trials will be conducted.

The impact of obesity on long-term outcomes in liver transplant recipients-results of the NIDDK liver transplant database.

The impact of obesity on outcomes following liver transplantation has been difficult to determine, in part due to the confounding effects of ascites on BMI. We evaluated the impact of pretransplant recipient obesity on outcomes following liver transplantation using the NIDDK Liver Transplantation Database. Pretransplant BMI, corrected for ascites, was categorized as underweight (BMI <18 kg/m(2)), normal weight (BMI 18-25 kg/m(2)), overweight (BMI 25.1-30 kg/m(2)), Class I obese (BMI 30.1-35 kg/m(2)), Class II obese (BMI 35.1-40 kg/m(2)) and Class III obese (BMI >40 kg/m(2)). Primary outcomes were patient and graft survival. Secondary outcomes included days in hospital and days in ICU. Data from 704 adult liver transplant recipients from the NIDDK LTD and a further 609 patients from the Mayo Clinic were analyzed. Early and late patient and graft survival was similar across all BMI categories. Correcting for ascites volume resulted in 11-20% of patients moving into a lower BMI classification. The relative risk for mortality increased by 7% for each liter of ascites removed. We conclude that corrected BMI is not independently predictive of patient or graft survival. Obesity, within the ranges observed in this study, should not be considered to be a contraindication to liver transplantation in the absence of other relative contraindications.

A controlled trial of calcitonin therapy for the prevention of post-liver transplantation atraumatic fractures in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis and primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Accelerated bone loss occurs early after liver transplantation (OLT) and, in cholestatic patients with pre-existing osteopenia, causes spontaneous fracturing. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of calcitonin, a powerful inhibitor of bone resorption, in preventing or reducing the accelerated rate of bone loss and fracturing which occurs in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis and primary sclerosing cholangitis early after OLT. METHODS: Sixty-three patients undergoing OLT for primary biliary cirrhosis (n = 26) and primary sclerosing cholarigitis (n = 37) were randomized to receive: (a), 100 IU/day of salmon calcitonin subcutaneously for the first 6 months posttransplant; or (b), no therapy. At pretransplant, and at 4 and 12 months after OLT, patients were investigated clinically, biochemically, by bone mineral density of the lumbar spine, and by radiographs of the thoracolumbar spine, chest and site of any bone pain. RESULTS: The bone mineral density of the lumbar spine fell equally at 4 months in both groups, from 0.85 to 0.81 g/cm2 in calcitonin-treated patients (n = 29) and from 0.88 to 0.82 g/cm2 in controls (n = 34); at 12 months, both groups had stabilized to 0.83 g/cm2. Fracturing was the same in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Calcitonin therapy for the first 6 months after OLT is unable to prevent or reduce accelerated bone loss or spontaneous fractures which occur in the first posttransplant year.

A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease.

A recent mandate emphasizes severity of liver disease to determine priorities in allocating organs for liver transplantation and necessitates a disease severity index based on generalizable, verifiable, and easily obtained variables. The aim of the study was to examine the generalizability of a model previously created to estimate survival of patients undergoing the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure in patient groups with a broader range of disease severity and etiology. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) consists of serum bilirubin and creatinine levels, International Normalized Ratio (INR) for prothrombin time, and etiology of liver disease. The model's validity was tested in 4 independent data sets, including (1) patients hospitalized for hepatic decompensation (referred to as "hospitalized" patients), (2) ambulatory patients with noncholestatic cirrhosis, (3) patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and (4) unselected patients from the 1980s with cirrhosis (referred to as "historical" patients). In these patients, the model's ability to classify patients according to their risk of death was examined using the concordance (c)-statistic. The MELD scale performed well in predicting death within 3 months with a c-statistic of (1) 0.87 for hospitalized patients, (2) 0.80 for noncholestatic ambulatory patients, (3) 0.87 for PBC patients, and (4) 0.78 for historical cirrhotic patients. Individual complications of portal hypertension had minimal impact on the model's prediction (range of improvement in c-statistic: <.01 for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and variceal hemorrhage to ascites: 0.01-0.03). The MELD scale is a reliable measure of mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease and suitable for use as a disease severity index to determine organ allocation priorities.

Impact of nutritional status on outcomes after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Poor preoperative nutritional status has been reported to be associated with adverse outcomes after liver transplantation. Published data are, however, conflicting, with methods of preoperative nutritional assessment and postoperative outcomes varying between studies. METHODS: We prospectively studied the predictive value of preoperative nutritional status for adverse outcomes after liver transplantation. Assessment of preoperative nutritional status included: body cell mass determination, subjective global assessment, anthropometry, handgrip dynamometry, biochemical and amino acid profile, Child's score, and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Death, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay > or =4 days, hospital length of stay > or =15 days, blood usage > or =36 U of blood products, infection, rejection, and global resource utilization (an index of cost) greater than the median were considered poor outcomes. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were studied. Longer ICU stay was associated with lower handgrip strength (P<0.01) and lower aromatic amino acid levels (P<0.01). Longer total hospital stay and the development of infections were associated with lower branched chain amino acid levels (P<0.01 and <0.001, respectively). Acute cellular rejection was associated with lower total body fat (P<0.001) and higher triglyceride levels (P<0.02). Neither death nor higher global resource utilization was associated with any preoperative nutritional parameter. CONCLUSIONS: Lower preoperative handgrip strength and branched chain amino acid levels are associated with longer ICU stays and increased likelihood of posttransplant infections. In our program, in which nutritional support was provided to potential recipients exhibiting malnourishment, none of the measured nutritional parameters were associated with mortality or greater global resource utilization.

Reliability and validity of the NIDDK-QA instrument in the assessment of quality of life in ambulatory patients with cholestatic liver disease.

The NIDDK-QA instrument, developed and widely used in liver transplant recipients, assesses quality of life (QOL) in four domains, including liver disease symptoms, physical function, health satisfaction, and overall well-being. We investigated whether the instrument may be used as a disease-specific instrument in ambulatory patients with cholestatic liver disease. The NIDDK-QA instrument was administered in 96 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) seen at the Mayo Clinic. The SF-36, a well-established generic instrument, was also administered. Standard measures for test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and discriminant and concurrent validity were examined. All patients were ambulatory with mostly normal levels of serum bilirubin and albumin concentrations. The reliability of the NIDDK-QA, as measured by test-retest correlation (Pearson coefficients: 0.82-0.99, P <.01) and by internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.87-0.94) exceeded conventional acceptability criteria. The correlation between domain scores of the NIDDK-QA and SF-36 was clear and logical in that the physical function domain of NIDDK-QA strongly correlated with the physical component summary score of SF-36 (r = 0.86, P <.01). The overall well-being domain of the NIDDK-QA was closely associated with the mental summary score of SF-36 (r = 0.69, P <.01). Among PBC patients, there was a modest yet significant correlation between the Mayo risk score and overall well-being (r = -0.26, P =.03). In the assessment of QOL in patients with cholestatic liver disease, NIDDK-QA is found reliable and valid. These data, combined with our previous study, demonstrate its applicability in a wide spectrum of disease severity, ranging from early, ambulatory-phase disease to decompensated cirrhosis necessitating liver transplantation.

Utility of standard nutritional parameters in detecting body cell mass depletion in patients with end-stage liver disease.

Protein-calorie malnutrition, best measured by body cell mass (BCM) depletion, has been associated with adverse outcomes in patients with end-stage liver disease. We prospectively measured BCM and multiple standard nutritional parameters in patients with end-stage liver disease to determine which, if any, of the traditionally measured nutritional parameters correlate with BCM. A detailed nutritional assessment, including BCM analysis, subjective global assessment, anthropometry, handgrip dynamometry, laboratory tests, and body composition measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was performed in 69 sequential patients awaiting liver transplantation. The frequency of abnormalities of specific parameters of nutritional status varied between 19% and 99%. Most of the commonly measured parameters of nutritional status correlated poorly with BCM. Patients with depleted BCM (lowest quartile for sex) had midarm circumference (P <.01), arm-muscle circumference (P <.001), handgrip strength (P <.001), blood urea nitrogen (P <.01), and creatinine (P <.01) values less than those for patients with greater BCM (highest 3 quartiles for sex). In multivariate analysis, arm-muscle circumference and handgrip strength were the best predictors of BCM. The combined criteria of handgrip strength less than 30 kg and arm-muscle circumference less than 23 cm have a sensitivity of 94% and a negative predictive value of 97% in identifying patients with depleted BCM. Although abnormalities of nutritional parameters are highly prevalent among patients with end-stage liver disease, most parameters of nutritional status do not correlate with BCM. In patients with end-stage liver disease, arm-muscle circumference and handgrip strength are the most sensitive markers of BCM depletion.

A revised natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a natural history model for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) that is based on routine clinical findings and test results and eliminates the need for liver biopsy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Cox proportional hazards analysis, we created a survival model based on 405 patients with PSC from 5 clinical centers. Independent validation of the model was undertaken by applying it to 124 patients who were not included in the model creation. RESULTS: Based on the multivariate analysis of 405 patients, a risk score was defined by the following formula: R = 0.03 (age [y]) + 0.54 loge (bilirubin [mg/dL]) + 0.54 loge (aspartate aminotransferase [U/L]) + 1.24 (variceal bleeding [0/1]) - 0.84 (albumin [g/dL]). The risk score was used to obtain survival estimates up to 4 years of follow-up. Application of this model to an independent group of 124 patients showed good correlation between estimated and actual survival. CONCLUSIONS: A new model to estimate patient survival in PSC includes more reproducible variables (age, bilirubin, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and history of variceal bleeding), has accuracy comparable to previous models, and obviates the need for a liver biopsy.

A model to predict poor survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) may worsen liver function and decrease survival in some patients. The Child-Pugh classification has several drawbacks when used to determine survival in such patients. The survival of 231 patients at 4 medical centers within the United States who underwent elective TIPS was studied to develop statistical models to (1) predict patient survival and (2) identify those patients whose liver-related mortality post-TIPS would be 3 months or less. Among these elective TIPS patients, 173 had the procedure for prevention of variceal rebleeding and 58 for treatment of refractory ascites. Death related to liver disease occurred in 110 patients, 70 within 3 months. Cox proportional-hazards regression identified serum concentrations of bilirubin and creatinine, international normalized ratio for prothrombin time (INR), and the cause of the underlying liver disease as predictors of survival in patients undergoing elective TIPS, either for prevention of variceal rebleeding or for treatment of refractory ascites. These variables can be used to calculate a risk score (R) for patients undergoing elective TIPS. Patients with R > 1.8 had a median survival of 3 months or less. This model was superior to both the Child-Pugh classification, as well as the Child-Pugh score, in predicting survival. Using logistic regression and the same variables, we also developed a nomogram that indicates which patients survive less than 3 months. Finally, the model was validated among an independent set of 71 patients from the Netherlands. This Mayo TIPS model may predict early death following elective TIPS for either prevention of variceal rebleeding or for treatment of refractory ascites.

Optimists vs pessimists: survival rate among medical patients over a 30-year period.

OBJECTIVE: To examine explanatory style (how people explain life events) as a risk factor for early death, using scores from the Optimism-Pessimism scale of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A total of 839 patients completed the MMPI between 1962 and 1965 as self-referred general medical patients. Thirty years later, the vital status of each of these patients was ascertained. RESULTS: Of the 839 patients, 124 were classified as optimistic, 518 as mixed, and 197 as pessimistic. Follow-up was available for 723 patients. Among these, a 10-point T-score increase on the Optimism-Pessimism scale (e.g., more pessimistic) was associated with a 19% increase in the risk of mortality. CONCLUSION: A pessimistic explanatory style, as measured by the Optimism-Pessimism scale of the MMPI, is significantly associated with mortality.

Hepatic retransplantation in cholestatic liver disease: impact of the interval to retransplantation on survival and resource utilization.

The aim of our study was to quantitatively assess the impact of hepatic retransplantation on patient and graft survival and resource utilization. We studied patients undergoing hepatic retransplantation among 447 transplant recipients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) at 3 transplantation centers. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for survival analysis. Measures of resource utilization included the duration of hospitalization, length of stay in the intensive care unit, and the duration of transplantation surgery. Forty-six (10.3%) patients received 2 or more grafts during the follow-up period (median, 2.8 years). Patients who underwent retransplantation had a 3.8-fold increase in the risk of death compared with those without retransplantation (P <.01). Retransplantation after an interval of greater than 30 days from the primary graft was associated with a 6.7-fold increase in the risk of death (P <.01). The survival following retransplantations performed 30 days or earlier was similar to primary transplantations. Resource utilization was higher in patients who underwent multiple consecutive transplantations, even after adjustment for the number of grafts during the hospitalization. Among cholestatic liver disease patients, poor survival following hepatic retransplantation is attributed to late retransplantations, namely those performed more than 30 days after the initial transplantation. While efforts must be made to improve the outcome following retransplantation, a more critical evaluation may be warranted for late retransplantation candidates.

The relative role of the Child-Pugh classification and the Mayo natural history model in the assessment of survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

The Child-Pugh classification is a simple, convenient prognostic measure in patients with liver cirrhosis. We investigated the relative role of the Child-Pugh classification and the Mayo model in the assessment of survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Of the 173 patients described in the original Mayo PSC natural history model, 147 patients had sufficient information in the medical record to allow computation of the Child-Pugh score. We used our most recent modification of the Mayo model to compute the risk score, based on patient's age, serum levels of bilirubin, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase and history of variceal bleeding. Using the risk score (R), patients were divided into the low- (R < 0), intermediate- (0 /= 2) groups. Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards analysis were used to evaluate the two prognostic models. Although there was a statistically significant correlation between the Child-Pugh and Mayo risk scores, two-thirds of the patients had a Child-Pugh score of 5 or 6 and a relatively wide range of risk scores (-1.1-4.3). The probability of survival for 7 years in patients in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 92%, 74%, and 40% for Child-Pugh class A (n = 96) and 100%, 62%, and 28% for Child-Pugh class B patients (n = 44), respectively. There were only a small number (n = 7) of Child-Pugh class C patients. In our age-adjusted multivariate analysis, each unit increase in the Mayo risk score was associated with a 2.5-fold increase in the risk of death (95% confidence interval: 1.8-3.4, P <.01), whereas Child-Pugh classification had no significant impact on survival (Child-Pugh B vs. A: risk ratio = 1.1 [95% confidence interval: 0.6-2.0]; Child-Pugh C versus A: risk ratio = 0.6 [95% confidence interval: 0. 2-1.8]). In contrast to the Child-Pugh classification, which was developed for advanced liver cirrhosis, the Mayo model provides valid survival information, particularly in patients early in the course of PSC.

Utilization of the Mayo risk score in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis receiving ursodeoxycholic acid.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is an effective therapy for most patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). During the management of these treated patients, a number of clinically important issues arose including which patients might be candidates for combined therapy, which patients require endoscopy for variceal bleeding, and how survival can be predicted during treatment. Our aims were: 1) to identify factors associated with a suboptimal response to UDCA in patients with PBC; 2) to define a simple, non-invasive method to predict those PBC patients most apt to have esophageal varices; and 3) to determine the reliability of the Mayo survival model in predicting the course of UDCA treated patients. METHODS: We analyzed the prospectively collected data of 180 patients, who we continue to follow, with PBC who participated in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of UDCA. RESULTS: After six months of UDCA therapy, patients with serum alkaline phosphatase levels less than twice normal (p < 0.04), and/or a Mayo risk score < 4.5 (p < 0.04) were more likely to respond favorably to treatment over a two year period. The Mayo risk score was the single risk factor independently predictive of development of varices (p < 0.01); 93% of patients who developed varices had a Mayo risk score > or = 4. The Mayo survival model, recalculated after 6 months on UDCA therapy accurately predicted patient survival. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal responders to UDCA can be identified by assessment of serum alkaline phosphatase levels, and/or Mayo risk score. A Mayo risk score above 4 helps in selecting patients for endoscopic surveillance for varices and the Mayo survival model accurately predicts the clinical course in patients with PBC receiving UDCA.

Quality of life before and after liver transplantation for cholestatic liver disease.

Liver transplantation (LT) is an established therapy for patients with end-stage primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) or primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). In this report, we describe the health status and quality of life (QOL) in patients with these cholestatic liver diseases before and after LT. A QOL questionnaire was completed by 157 adult patients with PBC or PSC before and 1 year after liver transplantation at the Mayo Clinic or Baylor University Medical Center. This questionnaire measured four aspects of QOL, including symptoms; physical, social, and emotional functioning; health perceptions; and overall QOL. Changes in these QOL parameters before and after LT were described, and regression analysis was used to assess the relationships between clinical and QOL factors. There were no differences in QOL parameters between patients with PBC and PSC. QOL following transplantation was substantially better than before transplantation. This was observed in all four aspects of QOL. The degree of improvement as measured by effect size (difference in mean scores divided by the pretransplantation standard deviation) was 0.53 for symptoms (P <.01), 1.16 for function (P <.01), 2.37 for health satisfaction (P <.01), and 1.16 for overall QOL (P <.01). Patients' overall QOL before transplantation was significantly related to subjective and objective health status indicators and clinical factors such as ascites and renal dysfunction. QOL at 1-year follow-up, however, could not be adequately predicted by the pretransplantation subjective health status and clinical factors. Patients with end-stage cholestatic disease undergoing LT experience substantial improvement in all aspects of QOL addressed in this study. The patients' QOL 1 year after LT could not be predicted by pretransplantation variables used in this study.

Status of patients with chronic pain 13 years after treatment in a pain management center.

This study describes the current vital, health, and employment status of 249 patients with chronic pain who were treated in a pain management center at the Mayo Clinic, on average, 13 years ago. These patients do not have an increased risk of mortality; their death rate is similar to that of the US white population. However, 68% of the patients reported worse-than-average or an abnormal level of bodily pain, with increased morbidity in their physical health, physical functioning, and social functioning. Emotional and mental health were claimed to be adequate. About half of the patients reported being gainfully employed.

Pessimism in the profile: estimating explanatory style from the MMPI.

Regression equations are presented for converting the non-K-corrected raw scores on the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) basic scales to an estimated optimism-pessimism score. This score describes an individual's explanatory style on a continuum from optimistic to pessimistic. These equations will enable clinicians and researchers to estimate an optimism-pessimism score if the MMPI item responses are not accessible or if computer scoring facilities for individual items are unavailable.

Ursodeoxycholic acid delays the onset of esophageal varices in primary biliary cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE: To address the effect of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy on development of esophageal varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We compared, as part of a prospective treatment trial, the risk of varices developing in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis who received ursodeoxycholic acid (13 to 15 mg/kg daily) versus those who received placebo for up to 4 years. Upper endoscopy was performed every 2 years or as indicated clinically. At the end of the 4-year period, all patients in the placebo group were offered ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. During follow-up, the risk of developing endoscopically confirmed varices was assessed. RESULTS: The 180 patients who entered the ursodeoxycholic acid trial were assessed for the presence or absence of varices by esophagogastroduodenoscopy; 139 patients had no varices, and 41 patients demonstrated varices on initial examination. At 4 years, the risk of newly developing endoscopically confirmed varices was 16% for the ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients and 58% for the placebo-treated patients (P < 0.001). Thus, the use of ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing varices in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: In addition to biochemical improvement, delay in death, and prolongation of time to orthotopic liver transplantation, ursodeoxycholic acid has now been demonstrated to decrease the risk of esophageal varices developing in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis.

Primary biliary cirrhosis: Dutch application of the Mayo Model before and after orthotopic liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: A retrospective study of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) was performed to study the Original Mayo Model for predicting survival by a Dutch data-set of patients, presentation of disease progression; assessment of liver transplantation, prediction of post-transplantation survival; and the addition of two laboratory variables to the Original Mayo Model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Survival of 83 patients, 37 of whom underwent transplantation, were studied. Mean follow-up was 6.0 +/- 0.45 SEM years. Risk score at diagnosis, platelet count, and serum sodium were analyzed in a Cox model. RESULTS: The Original Mayo Model estimated survival for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups accurately and it also presented disease progression. Baseline Mayo risk score in a Cox model had a regression coefficient of 1.01, indicating an excellent predictor p < 0.0001. Platelet count was a predictor of survival (p < 0.002), whereas serum sodium did not (p = 0.67). A new model combined of the Original Mayo risk score and platelet count predicted survival in high-risk patients somewhat better compared to the Original Mayo Model. With both models, liver transplantation had a significant beneficial effect on survival (p < 0.001). The scores revealed no significant influence (p = 0.47) for overall post-transplantation survival. CONCLUSIONS: The Original Mayo Model remains the model of choice for patients with PBC for prognostication from 3-8 years, is a useful tool in the assessment of liver transplantation but not an indicator of post-transplantation survival. Platelet count showed to have additional prognostic value. A new model combined of platelet count and the Original Mayo risk score did predict survival in high-risk groups slightly better compared to the Original Mayo Model.