Using a dynamic mass balance model to predict fate and transport of PCBs in a polluted boreal lake in Sweden.

In 2013, a screening survey including fish (European perch, Perca fluviatilis) from 20 locations in the Stockholm region of Sweden indicated exceptionally high levels of PCBs (>450 ng ΣPCB7/g ww) in Lake Oxundasjön. An extensive sampling program was launched to define the magnitude and area of impact of PCBs. Moreover, a dynamic mass balance model approach was applied to identify and quantify key transport processes and predict the long-term turnover of PCBs given various remediation scenarios. Based on the dating of sediment profiles, primary emissions of PCBs to Lake Oxundasjön have likely occurred from the end of the 1940s until 1980, reaching the lake via one of its tributaries. Presently, the main source of PCBs is diffusion from the lake sediments. From the lake outlet, >400 g ΣPCB7/yr are transported to Lake Mälaren (the third largest lake in Sweden), supplying drinking water for parts of the Stockholm area. Remediation actions are necessary to reduce the PCB levels in fish below today's marketing limits and environmental quality standards. With natural recovery, our results indicate that the PCB levels in non-migratory fish from Lake Oxundasjön will be elevated for decades to come. The mass of PCBs stored in the lake sediments was estimated, and to our knowledge, Lake Oxundasjön is the most heavily PCB contaminated lake in Sweden. The system constitutes a unique opportunity to test and develop a mathematical mass balance model for PCBs, with substantial data acquired from different aquatic matrices. The model presented in the paper is applicable for risk assessments of PCBs, and the results contribute to the general understanding of the transport and turnover dynamics of PCBs in aquatic ecosystems.

Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea-Kattegat marine ecosystem: implications for policy and management actions.

The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors.

Estimating costs and potentials of different methods to reduce the Swedish phosphorus load from agriculture to surface water.

This paper reviews 17 measures to reduce phosphorus leakage from Swedish agriculture to surface waters. Our aim is to evaluate the possible contribution from agriculture to achieve environmental goals including the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Using a regional approach integrating the variability in field specific characteristics, typical costs and national potential for the included measures may be estimated without identifying, e.g., suitable individual fields for implementation. The result may be helpful to select suitable measures but may also influence the design of environmental targets before they are determined. We find that the cheapest measures are reduced phosphorus content in animal food and fertilizer application supervision in pig farms, both measures with annual potentials of around 50t each, and costs of euro7 to euro11 kg(-1)yr(-1). The total potential of the listed measures is an annual phosphorus reduction to surface waters of 242t. If the most expensive measures are excluded (>euro1000 kg(-1)yr(-1)) and including retention in lakes the phosphorus transport to the sea could be reduced by 165 t yr(-1). This amount can be compared with the Swedish commitment in the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) to reduce input to the Baltic Proper by 290 t yr(-1).

The optimal size of dynamic phosphorus models for coastal areas.

One method to assess environmental effects from industrial emissions to coastal and inland waters, e.g. from pulp and paper industries, is to quantify these emissions with mass balance models. In this study six different mass balance models for phosphorus with varying degrees of complexity have been tested in 11 Swedish coastal areas. The majority of these areas are recipients of pulp and paper industries. The accuracy of model predictions of phosphorus and chlorophyll is evaluated and compared between models. The results imply that for the included water bodies, models containing state variables for phosphorus in surface water and deep water are superior to models treating the water column as a completely mixed entity. The results do not justify the separation of phosphorus into dissolved and particulate fractions, but for chlorophyll predictions the results were significantly improved when phytoplankton was included as a state variable. Unless detailed descriptions or predictions of chlorophyll dynamics are required, modelling eutrophication in coastal areas may be considered as a matter of total phosphorus in two water compartments plus sediments.