Trends in State-Level Opinions toward the Affordable Care Act.

CONTEXT: This article argues that the devolution of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to the states contributed to the slow progression of national public support for health care reform. METHODS: Using small-area estimation techniques, the authors measured quarterly state ACA attitudes on five topics from 2009 to the start of the 2016 presidential election. FINDINGS: Public support for the ACA increased after gubernatorial announcement of state-based exchanges. However, the adoption of federal or partnership marketplaces had virtually no effect on public opinion of the ACA and, in some cases, even decreased positive perceptions. CONCLUSIONS: The authors' analyses point to the complexities in mass preferences toward the ACA and policy feedback more generally. The slow movement of national ACA support was due partly to state-level variations in policy making. The findings suggest that, as time progresses, attitudes in Republican-leaning states with state-based marketplaces will become more positive toward the ACA, presumably as residents begin to experience the positive effects of the law. More broadly, this work highlights the importance of looking at state-level variations in opinions and policies.

The Role of Public Opinion-Does It Influence the Diffusion of ACA Decisions?

We consider two ways that public opinion influenced the diffusion of ACA policy choices from 2010 through 2014. First, we consider the policy feedback mechanism, which suggests that policy decisions have spillover effects that influence opinions in other states; residents in the home state then influence the decisions of elected officials. We find that both gubernatorial ACA announcements and grant activity increased support for the ACA in nearby states. Consistent with our expectations, however, only gubernatorial announcements respond to shifts in ACA support, presumably because it is a more salient policy than grant activity. Second, we test for the opinion learning mechanism, which suggests that shifts in public opinion in other states provide a signal to elected officials about the viability of decisions in their own state. We find evidence that states are more likely to emulate other states with similar ACA policy preferences when deciding about when to announce their decisions. Our results suggest that scholars and policy makers should consider how shifts in public support influence the spread of ideas across the American states.