Statistical profiling of hospital performance using acute coronary syndrome mortality.

BACKGROUND: In order to improve the quality of care delivered to patients and to enable patient choice, public reports comparing hospital performances are routinely published. Robust systems of hospital 'report cards' on performance monitoring and evaluation are therefore crucial in medical decision-making processes. In particular, such systems should effectively account for and minimise systematic differences with regard to definitions and data quality, care and treatment quality, and 'case mix'. METHODS: Four methods for assessing hospital performance on mortality outcome measures were considered. The methods included combinations of Bayesian fixed- and random-effects models, and risk-adjusted mortality rate, and rank-based profiling techniques. The methods were empirically compared using 30-day mortality in patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome. Agreement was firstly assessed using median estimates between risk-adjusted mortality rates for a hospital and between ranks associated with a hospital's risk-adjusted mortality rates. Secondly, assessment of agreement was based on a classification of hospitals into low, normal or high performing using risk-adjusted mortality rates and ranks. RESULTS: There was poor agreement between the point estimates of risk-adjusted mortality rates, but better agreement between ranks. However, for categorised performance, the observed agreement between the methods' classification of the hospital performance ranged from 90 to 98%. In only two of the six possible pair-wise comparisons was agreement reasonable, as reflected by a Kappa statistic; it was 0.71 between the methods of identifying outliers with the fixed-effect model and 0.77 with the hierarchical model. In the remaining four pair-wise comparisons, the agreement was, at best, moderate. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the inconsistencies among the studied methods raise questions about which hospitals performed better or worse than others, it seems that the choice of the definition of outlying performance is less critical than that of the statistical approach. Therefore there is a need to find robust systems of 'regulation' or 'performance monitoring' that are meaningful to health service practitioners and providers.

Evaluation of risk scores for risk stratification of acute coronary syndromes in the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the discriminative performance of the PURSUIT, GUSTO-1, GRACE, SRI and EMMACE risk models, assess their performance among risk supergroups and evaluate the EMMACE risk model over the wider spectrum of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). DESIGN: Observational study of a national registry. SETTING: All acute hospitals in England and Wales. PATIENTS: 100 686 cases of ACS between 2003 and 2005. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Model performance (C-index) in predicting the likelihood of death over the time period for which they were designed. The C-index, or area under the receiver-operating curve, range 0-1, is a measure of the discriminative performance of a model. RESULTS: The C-indexes were: PURSUIT C-index 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.80); GUSTO-1 0.80 (0.79 to 0.81); GRACE in-hospital 0.80 (0.80 to 0.81); GRACE 6-month 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80); SRI 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80); and EMMACE 0.78 (0.77 to 0.78). EMMACE maintained its ability to discriminate 30-day mortality throughout different ACS diagnoses. Recalibration of the model offered no notable improvement in performance over the original risk equation. For all models the discriminative performance was reduced in patients with diabetes, chronic renal failure or angina. CONCLUSION: The five ACS risk models maintained their discriminative performance in a large unselected English and Welsh ACS population, but performed less well in higher-risk supergroups. Simpler risk models had comparable performance to more complex risk models. The EMMACE risk score performed well across the wider spectrum of ACS diagnoses.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality for patients admitted with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a real-world study using the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database.

OBJECTIVE: Although early thrombolysis reduces the risk of death in STEMI patients, mortality remains high. We evaluated factors predicting inpatient mortality for patients with STEMI in a "real-world" population. DESIGN: Analysis of the Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project (MINAP) database using multivariate logistic regression and area under the receiver operating curve analysis. SETTING: All acute hospitals in England and Wales. PATIENTS: 34 722 patients with STEMI from 1 January 2003 to 31 March 2005. RESULTS: Inpatient mortality was 10.6%. The highest odds ratios for inpatient survival were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, independently associated with a mortality risk reduction of over half. A 10-year increase in age doubled inpatient mortality risk, whereas cerebrovascular disease increased it by 1.7. The risk model comprised 14 predictors of mortality, C index = 0.82 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.83, p<0.001). A simple model comprising age, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) offered a C index of 0.80 (0.79 to 0.80, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The strongest predictors of in-hospital survival for STEMI were aspirin therapy given acutely and out-of-hospital thrombolysis, Previous STEMI models have focused on age, SBP and HR We have confirmed the importance of these predictors in the discrimination of death after STEMI, but also demonstrated that other potentially modifiable variables impact upon the prediction of short-term mortality.

Corrected TIMI frame counts correlate with stenosis severity and infarct zone wall motion after thrombolytic therapy.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with patent infarct-related arteries after thrombolytic therapy have slower than normal flow, which relates to myocardial perfusion. METHODS: To evaluate the relationships between blood levels of creatine kinase (CK) and the corrected Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) frame count (CTFC), infarct artery stenosis, and left ventricular function, we studied 397 patients with a first myocardial infarction who underwent angiography at 3 weeks. TIMI flow grades, the CTFC, infarct artery stenosis, and infarct zone wall motion (by contrast ventriculography using the centerline method) were assessed, and CK levels (in units per liter) were measured hourly for the first 4 hours after streptokinase (1.5 x 10(6) U over 30-60 minutes) and then every 4 hours over the next 20 hours, all blinded to treatment and outcome. RESULTS: Infarct artery stenosis and the CTFC, assessed as continuous variables, correlated in patients with patent infarct arteries (r = 0.33, P <.001). Also, there was a significant correlation between the CTFC and the sum of hypokinetic chords in the infarct zone (r = 0.15, P =.01). Patients with total occlusion or markedly slowed infarct artery flow (CTFC >100) had a higher fraction of chords with wall motion >2 SDs below normal (0.65 [0.41, 0.80] vs 0.37 [0.0, 0.67]) compared with patients with normal flow (CTFC < or =27) (P <.001). The rates of increase of median CK levels with respect to TIMI flow grades were 342 U/L/h for TIMI 3 versus 212 U/L/h for TIMI 2 versus 140 U/L/h for TIMI 0-1 (P <.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged corrected TIMI frame counts correlate with stenosis severity in the infarct artery after infarction, infarct zone regional wall motion, and CK levels.

Relationship between corrected TIMI frame counts at three weeks and late survival after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the corrected Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) frame count (CTFC) as a predictor of late survival after myocardial infarction. BACKGROUND: Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow grades predict late survival after myocardial infarction. The CTFC provides a more reproducible measurement of infarct-related artery blood flow than the TIMI flow grade, and has been linked to 30-day outcomes, but it has not yet been established how the CTFC correlates with late survival. METHODS: Of 1,001 patients with acute myocardial infarction presenting within 4 h of symptom onset, 882 underwent angiography at approximately three weeks. Infarct artery flow was assessed, blinded to clinical outcomes, according to the CTFC and TIMI flow grade. Late cardiac mortality and survival were determined in 97.5% of patients. RESULTS: The mean CTFC was 40 +/- 29 in 644 patent infarct arteries (median, 34 [interquartile range, 24 to 47]). The CTFC, assessed as a continuous univariate variable, was found to be a predictor of five-year survival, as was the TIMI flow grade (both p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, factors associated with five-year survival included the ejection fraction or end-systolic volume index (both p < 0.001); exercise duration (p = 0.005), age (p = 0.008), diabetes (p = 0.02) and CTFC (p = 0.02) or TIMI flow (p = 0.02). The same factors, except for the CTFC and TIMI flow grade, were predictors of 10-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: The CTFC three weeks after myocardial infarction was an independent predictor of five-year survival, but not 10-year survival. Although the CTFC provided additional prognostic information within TIMI flow grades, its superiority was not demonstrated.

New Q waves on the presenting electrocardiogram independently predict increased cardiac mortality following a first ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

AIMS: The prognostic significance of pathological Q waves appearing in the acute phase of myocardial infarction has not been determined. We investigated whether new Q waves on the presenting electrocardiogram of patients with acute ST-segment elevation were independently associated with a worse outcome after a first myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: The presence or absence of new Q waves on the presenting electrocardiogram was assessed in 481 patients who presented within 4 h of symptom onset and were randomized to receive either captopril or placebo within 2 h of streptokinase therapy for myocardial infarction. Ventriculography was performed at 22+/-6 days and mortality status was obtained at a median follow-up of 5.6 years. New Q waves were associated with a lower ejection fraction (51+/-13% vs 61+/-12%, P<0.0001), a larger end-systolic volume index (37 ml vs 28 ml, P<0.001), and increased cardiac mortality at 30 days (7% vs 2%, P=0.01) and at follow-up (17% vs 7%, P=0.002). On multivariate analysis, age (P<0.01), new Q waves at presentation (P<0.01) and a history of angina (P=0.046) were independent predictors of cardiac mortality, whereas randomization to captopril and the time from symptom onset to streptokinase administration were not. CONCLUSION: New Q waves at presentation are independently associated with a worse outcome after a first myocardial infarction. The presence of new Q waves on the presenting electrocardiogram allows very early identification of patients at risk of increased cardiac mortality.

Birth intervals, breastfeeding and determinants of childhood mortality in Malawi.

Childhood mortality in Malawi is analyzed by employing proportional hazards models. The analysis uses highly reliable data collected from the 1992 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of Malawi. The results show that the substantial birth interval and maternal age effects are largely limited to the infant period. The influence of social and economic variables on the mortality risk and on the relationship between biodemographic variables and mortality risk is much enhanced with increasing age of the child. It has also been found that consideration of breastfeeding status of the child does not significantly alter interpretation of effects of preceding birth interval length on mortality risk, but does partially diminish the succeeding birth interval effect. The results are discussed and then summarized in the context of policy implications for Malawi. The paper addresses a very important issue in Malawi and it adds valuable insights to the base of knowledge in childhood mortality in sub-Sahara Africa.