RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD), but little is known about the risk for ischemic stroke among younger patients with CHD (aged <65 years) with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using data from the National Swedish Patient Register and Cause of Death Register, we identified all patients with both CHD and AF born in Sweden between 1970 and 2017. The Swedish total population register was used to identify age- and sex-matched patients without CHD; those with AF were used as controls. Bottos hierarchical classification was used to define CHD as either complex or noncomplex. Controls were followed from the onset of AF until the index ischemic stroke, death, or end of study (December 31, 2017). We identified 951 patients with CHD with AF and 606 controls with AF. Among patients with both CHD and AF, 2.9% of patients (n=28) developed ischemic stroke, compared with 0.5% (n=3) in controls. When adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, and heart failure, a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.16 (95% CI, 1.52-17.46) was acquired. The HR in noncomplex CHD was 3.84 (95% CI, 1.07-13.84), and the HR in complex CHD was 8.34 (95% CI, 2.27-30.57). For patients born in 1970 to 1989, the HR in ischemic stroke was 7.35 (95% CI, 1.70-31.75). No adjusted HR for patients with CHD born in 1990 to 2017 could be acquired due to few events. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for ischemic stroke may be 5 times higher in patients with both CHD and AF compared with patients without CHD with AF. However, larger studies may be needed to confirm/refute these results.
RESUMO
AIMS: Individuals with congenital heart disease (CHD) are at an increased risk for cancer. As cancer survival rates improve, the prevalence of late side effects, such as heart failure (HF), is becoming more evident. This study aims to evaluate the risk of developing HF following a cancer diagnosis in patients with CHD, compared with those without CHD and with CHD patients who do not have cancer. METHODS: CHD patients (n = 69 799) and randomly selected non-CHD controls (n = 650 406), born in Sweden between 1952 and 2017, were identified from the Swedish National Health Registers and Total Population Register (excluding those with syndromes and transplant recipients). CHD patients who developed cancer (n = 1309) were propensity score-matched with non-CHD patients who developed cancer (n = 9425), resulting in a cohort of 1232 CHD patients with cancer and 2602 non-CHD controls with cancer (after exclusion of individuals with HF prior to cancer diagnosis). In a separate analysis, CHD patients with cancer were propensity score-matched with CHD patients without cancer (n = 68 490). A total of 1233 CHD patients with cancer and 2257 CHD patients without cancer were included in the study. RESULTS: Among CHD patients with cancer, 73 (5.9%) developed HF during a mean follow-up time of 8.5 ± 8.7. Comparatively, in the propensity-matched control population, 29 (1.1%) non-CHD cancer patients (mean follow-up time of 7.3 ± 7.5) and 101 (4.5%) CHD patients without cancer (mean follow-up time of 9.9 ± 9.2) developed HF. CHD patients exhibited a significantly higher risk of HF post-cancer diagnosis compared with the non-CHD control group [hazard ratio (HR) 4.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.83-6.81], after adjusting for age at cancer diagnosis and comorbidities. In the analysis between CHD patients with cancer and those without cancer, the results indicated a significantly higher risk of developing HF in CHD patients with cancer (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.13-2.07). CONCLUSIONS: CHD patients face a more than four-fold increased risk of developing HF after a cancer diagnosis compared with cancer patients without CHD. Among CHD patients, the risk of HF is only modestly higher for those with cancer than for those without cancer. This suggests that the increased HF risk in CHD patients with cancer, relative to non-CHD cancer patients, may be more attributable to CHD itself than to cancer treatment-related side effects.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: It has been estimated that 80% of cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are due to cardiac causes. It is well-documented that diabetes is a risk factor for conditions associated with sudden cardiac arrest. Type 1 diabetes (T1D) displays a threefold to fivefold increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death compared with the general population. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the characteristics and survival outcomes of individuals with and without T1D who experienced an OHCA. Design: A registry-based nationwide observational study with two cohorts, patients with T1D and patients without T1D. Setting: All emergency medical services and hospitals in Sweden were included in the study. PARTICIPANTS: Using the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry, we enrolled 54 568 cases of OHCA where cardiopulmonary resuscitation was attempted between 2010 and 2020. Among them, 448 patients with T1D were identified using International Classification of Diseases-code: E10. METHODS: Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression. Multiple regression was adjusted for age, sex, cause of arrest, prevalence of T1D and time to cardiopulmonary resuscitation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcomes were discharge status (alive vs dead), 30 days survival and neurological outcome at discharge. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in patients discharged alive with T1D 37.3% versus, 46% among cases without T1D. There was also no difference in neurological outcome. Kaplan-Meier curves yielded no significant difference in long-term survival. Multiple regression showed no significant association with survival after accounting for covariates, OR 0.99 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.02), p value=0.7. Baseline characteristics indicate that patients with T1D were 5 years younger at OHCA occurrence and had proportionally fewer cases of heart disease as the cause of arrest (57.6% vs 62.7%). CONCLUSION: We conclude, with the current sample size, that there is no statistically significant difference in long-term or short-term survival between patients with and without T1D following OHCA.
Assuntos
Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Sistema de Registros , Humanos , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/mortalidade , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Suécia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/complicações , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/mortalidade , Idoso , Adulto , Fatores de Risco , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Sobrevida , Estimativa de Kaplan-MeierRESUMO
IMTRODUCTION: The high-risk population of patients with cardiovascular (CV) disease or risk factors (RF) suffering from COVID-19 is heterogeneous. Several predictors for impaired prognosis have been identified. However, with machine learning (ML) approaches, certain phenotypes may be confined to classify the affected population and to predict outcome. This study aimed to phenotype patients using unsupervised ML technique within the International Postgraduate Course Heart Failure Registry for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and Cardiovascular disease and/or RF (PCHF-COVICAV). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients from the eight centres with follow-up data available from the PCHF-COVICAV registry were included in this ML analysis (K-medoids algorithm). RESULTS: Out of 617 patients included into the prospective part of the registry, 458 [median age: 76 (IQR:65-84) years, 55% male] were analyzed and 46 baseline variables, including demographics, clinical status, comorbidities and biochemical characteristics were incorporated into the ML. Three clusters were extracted by this ML method. Cluster 1 (n = 181) represents mainly women with the least number of overall comorbidities and cardiovascular RF. Cluster 2 (n = 227) is characterized mainly by men with non-CV conditions and less severe symptoms of infection. Cluster 3 (n=50) mainly represents men with the highest prevalence of cardiac comorbidities and RF, more extensive inflammation and organ dysfunction with the highest 6-month all-cause mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: The ML process has identified three important clinical clusters from hospitalized COVID-19 CV and/or RF patients. The cluster of males with severe CV disease, particularly HF, and multiple RF presenting with increased inflammation had a particularly poor outcome.
RESUMO
Aims: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major health concern worldwide. Although one-third of all patients achieve a return of spontaneous circulation and may undergo a difficult period in the intensive care unit, only 1 in 10 survive. This study aims to improve our previously developed machine learning model for early prognostication of survival in OHCA. Methods and results: We studied all cases registered in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry during 2010 and 2020 (n = 55 615). We compared the predictive performance of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), logistic regression, CatBoost, random forest, and TabNet. For each framework, we developed models that optimized (i) a weighted F1 score to penalize models that yielded more false negatives and (ii) a precision-recall area under the curve (PR AUC). LightGBM assigned higher importance values to a larger set of variables, while XGB made predictions using fewer predictors. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC ROC) scores for LightGBM were 0.958 (optimized for weighted F1) and 0.961 (optimized for a PR AUC), while for XGB, the scores were 0.958 and 0.960, respectively. The calibration plots showed a subtle underestimation of survival for LightGBM, contrasting with a mild overestimation for XGB models. In the crucial range of 0-10% likelihood of survival, the XGB model, optimized with the PR AUC, emerged as a clinically safe model. Conclusion: We improved our previous prediction model by creating a parsimonious model with an AUC ROC at 0.96, with excellent calibration and no apparent risk of underestimating survival in the critical probability range (0-10%). The model is available at www.gocares.se.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) have an increased cancer risk. The aim of this study was to determine cancer-related mortality in CHD patients compared with non-CHD controls, compare ages at cancer diagnosis and death, and explore the most fatal cancer diagnoses. DESIGN: Registry-based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: CHD patients born between 1970 and 2017 were identified using Swedish Health Registers. Each was matched by birth year and sex with 10 non-CHD controls. Included were those born in Sweden with a cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: Cancer developed in 758 out of 67814 CHD patients (1.1%), with 139 deaths (18.3%)-of which 41 deaths occurred in patients with genetic syndromes. Cancer was the cause of death in 71.9% of cases. Across all CHD patients, cancer accounted for 1.8% of deaths. Excluding patients with genetic syndromes and transplant recipients, mortality risk between CHD patients with cancer and controls showed no significant difference (adjusted HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.49). CHD patients had a lower median age at cancer diagnosis-13.0 years (IQR 2.9-30.0) in CHD versus 24.6 years (IQR 8.6-35.1) in controls. Median age at death was 15.1 years (IQR 3.6-30.7) in CHD patients versus 18.5 years (IQR 6.1-32.7) in controls. The top three fatal cancer diagnoses were ill-defined, secondary and unspecified, eye and central nervous system tumours and haematological malignancies. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer-related deaths constituted 1.8% of all mortalities across all CHD patients. Among CHD patients with cancer, 18.3% died, with cancer being the cause in 71.9% of cases. Although CHD patients have an increased cancer risk, their mortality risk post-diagnosis does not significantly differ from non-CHD patients after adjustements and exclusion of patients with genetic syndromes and transplant recipients. However, CHD patients with genetic syndromes and concurrent cancer appear to be a vulnerable group.
Assuntos
Cardiopatias Congênitas , Neoplasias , Criança , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Estudos de Coortes , Suécia , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMO
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100407.].
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are recognized as independent risk factors contributing to excess mortality. Contemporary observational studies exploring the associations of risk factors, and risk of all-cause and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality in persons with T2D following the onset of incident peripheral artery disease are limited. The objectives of this study were to investigate the associations of risk factors, and assess mortality risks in people with T2D compared with controls without T2D after the onset of PAD. METHODS: All persons with T2D (n = 150,215) registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 2005 and 2009 were included, along with 346,423 controls without T2D matched for sex and age. Data were retrieved from several national registries, capturing information on risk factors, onset of incident peripheral artery disease, other comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and outcomes. To compare persons with T2D and controls following the onset of peripheral artery disease regarding the risk of all-cause, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality, Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier curves were employed. A gradient-boosting model was utilized to estimate the relative statistical contribution of risk factors to the modeling of incident mortality risk in people with both T2D and peripheral artery disease. RESULTS: Crude rates of incident all-cause mortality were higher in individuals with T2D compared with controls, following the onset of PAD (600.4 (95% CI, 581.4-619.8) per 10,000 person-years versus 549.1 (95% CI, 532.1-566.5) per 10,000 person-years). Persons with T2D had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.05-1.19, P < 0.01) compared with controls after onset of incident PAD. The comparable adjusted HR for cardiovascular mortality was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.19, P < 0.01). High age and hyperglycemia at baseline played a significant role in contributing to the predictive models for incident all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with both T2D and PAD. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of T2D with concomitant PAD is related to an increased risk of both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared with individuals with only PAD. This argues for implementing optimized and intensive treatment strategies for individuals with both conditions.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Doença Arterial Periférica , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Estudos de Coortes , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Fatores de Risco , Doença Arterial Periférica/diagnósticoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Life expectancy of patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) has increased rapidly, resulting in a growing and aging population. Recent studies have shown that older people with CHD have higher morbidity, health care use, and mortality. To maintain longevity and quality of life, understanding their evolving medical and psychosocial challenges is essential. OBJECTIVES: The authors describe the frailty and cognitive profile of middle-aged and older adults with CHD to identify predictor variables and to explore the relationship with hospital admissions and outpatient visits. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional, multicentric design, we included 814 patients aged ≥40 years from 11 countries. Frailty phenotype was determined using the Fried method. Cognitive function was assessed by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. RESULTS: In this sample, 52.3% of patients were assessed as robust, 41.9% as prefrail, and 5.8% as frail; 38.8% had cognitive dysfunction. Multinomial regression showed that frailty was associated with older age, female sex, higher physiologic class, and comorbidities. Counterintuitively, patients with mild heart defects were more likely than those with complex lesions to be prefrail. Patients from middle-income countries displayed more prefrailty than those from higher-income countries. Logistic regression demonstrated that cognitive dysfunction was related to older age, comorbidities, and lower country-level income. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-half of included patients were (pre-)frail, and more than one-third experienced cognitive impairment. Frailty and cognitive dysfunction were identified in patients with mild CHD, indicating that these concerns extend beyond severe CHD. Assessing frailty and cognition routinely could offer valuable insights into this aging population.
Assuntos
Disfunção Cognitiva , Fragilidade , Cardiopatias Congênitas , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Humanos , Feminino , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Fragilidade/complicações , Idoso Fragilizado/psicologia , Estudos Transversais , Qualidade de Vida , Cognição , Disfunção Cognitiva/complicações , Cardiopatias Congênitas/complicações , Cardiopatias Congênitas/epidemiologia , Avaliação Geriátrica/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Worldwide, 1-2% of children are born with congenital heart disease (CHD) with 97% reaching adulthood. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to demonstrate the risk of diabetes in patients with CHD, and the influence of incident diabetes on mortality in CHD patients and controls. METHODS: By combining data from patient registries, the incidence of adult-onset diabetes registered at age 35 or older, and subsequent mortality risk were analysed in two successive birth cohorts (born in 1930-1959 and 1960-1983), by type of CHD lesion and sex, compared with population-based controls matched for sex and year of birth and followed until a maximum of 87 years of age. RESULTS: Out of 24,699 patients with CHD and 270,961 controls, 8.4% and 5.6%, respectively, were registered with a diagnosis of diabetes at the age of 35 or older, hazard ratio (HR) 1.47 (95% CI 1.40-1.54). The risk of diabetes was higher in the second birth cohort (HR of 1.74, 95% CI 1.54-1.95) and increased with complexity of CHD. After onset of DM, the total mortality among patients with CHD was 475 compared to 411/ 10,000 person-years among controls (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort of patients with CHD and controls, the incidence of diabetes was almost 50% higher in patients with CHD, with higher risk in the most recent birth cohort and in those with conotruncal defects, with the combination of CHD and diabetes associated with a significantly increased mortality compared to diabetic controls.
Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Cardiopatias Congênitas , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Incidência , Cardiopatias Congênitas/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Sistema de Registros , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Increasing survival among patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) has recently been reported. However, the impact of Down syndrome (DS) in patients with CHD is still debated. We aimed to estimate survival in patients with CHD with versus without DS compared with matched controls from the general population without CHD or DS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked data from Swedish health registries to identify patients with CHD born between 1970 and 2017. Data from the Total Population Register were used to match each patient with CHD by sex and birth year with 8 controls without CHD or DS. A Cox proportional regression model was used to estimate mortality risk, and Kaplan-Meier curves were analyzed for the survival analysis. We identified 3285 patients with CHD-DS, 64 529 patients with CHD without DS, and 26 128 matched controls. The mortality risk was 25.1 times higher (95% CI, 21.3-29.5) in patients with CHD-DS versus controls. The mortality rate was 2 times higher (95% CI, 1.94-2.31) for patients with CHD with versus without DS. Lower mortality was found during the second versus first birth periods in patients with CHD-DS compared with controls; hazard ratio: 46.8 (95% CI, 29.5-74.0) and 17.7 (95% CI, 12.8-24.42) in those born between 1970 and 1989 versus 1990 and 2017, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective cohort study, the mortality risk among patients with CHD-DS was 25 times higher compared with matched controls and 2 times higher compared with patients with CHD without DS. Survival was higher in patients with CHD-DS born after versus before 1990, coinciding with the modern era of congenital heart care.
Assuntos
Síndrome de Down , Cardiopatias Congênitas , Humanos , Síndrome de Down/complicações , Síndrome de Down/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Cardiopatias Congênitas/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Análise de SobrevidaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To investigate to what extent having control of peripheral artery disease (PAD) risk factors is associated with the risk of incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 148,096 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 2005 and 2009 were included and matched with 320,066 control subjects on the basis of age, sex, and county. A few control subjects who developed type 2 diabetes after recruitment, during wash-in (<0.2%), were not censored but instead matched with two new control subjects. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were evaluated according to the number of PAD risk factors beyond recommended guideline levels at baseline, including LDL cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, glycated hemoglobin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Incident PAD events were ascertained from 2006 to 2019. RESULTS: A graded association was observed between the number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The adjusted hazard ratio for PAD was 1.41 (95% CI 1.23-1.63) for those with type 2 diabetes with all PAD risk factors within target compared with control subjects matched for sex, age, and county but not risk factor status, in contrast with 9.28 (95% CI 3.62-23.79) for those with all five PAD risk factors not at target. CONCLUSIONS: A graded association was observed between increasing number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes.
Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Doença Arterial Periférica , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Suécia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fumar/efeitos adversosRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: We studied short-term (30-day) and long-term (up to ten-year) survival among children and young adults following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in Sweden over the course of the past 30 years. We also studied the causes of OHCA in children and examined predictors of survival. SETTING: This was a nationwide, registry-based cohort study, using the Swedish Registry of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Our study comprised a cohort of 4,804 individuals aged 0 to 30 years who suffered OHCA between 1990 and 2020, in whom cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) was initiated. We stratified the study cohort to distinct age groups and time periods. RESULTS: We found an increase in 30-day survival from 7% to 20% over the span of 30 years. In those under 1 year of age, survival increased from 2% to 19%. Time to CPR decreased from 14 to 2 min. The 10-year survival was high among those who survived 30 days. The etiology of cardiac arrests exhibited significant variations across different age groups but remained relatively consistent over time. Causes linked to mental illness constituted a substantial percentage of these cases. Compared to the reference period (1990-1994), the odds of survival in 2015-2020 was 3.00 (95% CI: 1.43, 6.94; p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Survival rate after OHCA in children and young adults has increased three-fold over the past 30 years. Still overall mortality is high underscoring the need for continued efforts to mitigate risk factors and optimize survival.
Assuntos
Reanimação Cardiopulmonar , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar , Criança , Humanos , Adulto Jovem , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/etiologia , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/terapia , Estudos de Coortes , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Low birth prevalence and referral bias constitute significant obstacles to elucidating the natural history of Ebstein anomaly (EA). OBJECTIVES: An extensive 2-country register-based collaboration was performed to investigate the mortality in patients with EA. METHODS: Patients born from 1970 to 2017 and diagnosed with EA were identified in Danish and Swedish nationwide medical registries. Each patient was matched by birth year and sex with 10 control subjects from the general population. Cumulative mortality and HR of mortality were computed using Kaplan-Meier failure function and Cox proportional regression model. RESULTS: The study included 530 patients with EA and 5,300 matched control subjects with a median follow-up of 11 years. In the EA cohort, 43% (228) underwent cardiac surgery. Cumulative mortality was lower for patients diagnosed in the modern era (the year 2000 and later) than for those diagnosed in the prior era (P < 0.001). Patients with isolated lesion displayed lower cumulative mortality than patients with complex lesions did (P < 0.001). Patients with a presumed mild EA anatomy displayed a 35-year cumulative mortality of 11% (vs 4% for the matched control subjects; P < 0.001), yielding an HR for mortality of 6.0 (95% CI: 2.7-13.6), whereas patients with presumed severe EA demonstrated an HR of 36.2 (95% CI: 15.5-84.4) compared with control subjects and a cumulative mortality of 18% 35 years following diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in patients with EA is high irrespective of presence of concomitant congenital cardiac malformations and time of diagnosis compared with the general population, but overall mortality has improved in the contemporary era.
Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Anomalia de Ebstein , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Mortalidade HospitalarRESUMO
Importance: Mortality in patients with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) has decreased substantially since the start of surgical correction of this abnormality in the 1950s. However, nationwide data in Sweden comparing survival trends among pediatric patients with TOF with the general population are still limited. Objective: To study survival trends in pediatric patients with TOF and compare them with matched controls. Design, Setting, and Participants: A Swedish registry-based, nationwide, matched cohort study was conducted; data were collected from national health registers from January 1, 1970, to December 31, 2017. Patients with a registered diagnosis of TOF as well as controls without TOF matched by birth year and sex were included in the study. Follow-up data were collected from birth to age 18 years, death, or the end of follow-up (December 31, 2017), whichever occurred first. Data analysis was performed from September 10 to December 20, 2022. Survival trends among patients with TOF were compared with matched controls using Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality during childhood in patients with TOF and matched controls. Results: The population included 1848 patients (1064 [57.6%] males; mean [SD] age, 12.4 [6.7] years) with TOF and 16 354 matched controls. The number of patients who underwent congenital cardiac surgery (henceforth, surgery group) was 1527 (897 [58.7%] males). In the whole TOF population from birth until age 18 years, 286 patients (15.5%) died during a mean (SD) follow-up time of 12.4 (6.7) years. In the surgery group, 154 of 1527 patients (10.1%) died during a follow-up time of 13.6 (5.7) years with a mortality risk of 21.9 (95% CI, 16.2-29.7) compared with matched controls. When stratified by birth period, a substantial decrease in the mortality risk was noted in the surgery group, from 40.6 (95% CI, 21.9-75.4) in those born in the 1970s to 11.1 (95% CI, 3.4-36.4) in those born in the 2010s. Survival increased from 68.5% to 96.0%. The risk of mortality for surgery decreased from 0.52 in the 1979s to 0.19 in the 2010s. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest there has been substantial improvement in survival in children with TOF who underwent surgery from 1970 to 2017. However, the mortality rate is still significantly higher in this group compared with matched controls. Predictors of good and poor outcomes in this group need to be further explored, with the modifiable ones evaluated for further outcome improvements.
Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Tetralogia de Fallot , Masculino , Humanos , Criança , Adolescente , Feminino , Tetralogia de Fallot/cirurgia , Estudos de Coortes , Suécia/epidemiologia , Estimativa de Kaplan-MeierRESUMO
AIMS: Knowledge of long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains limited. We sought to evaluate the risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) in patients with AF and a low cardiovascular risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Swedish National Patient Register were used to identify all patients with a first-time diagnosis of AF without underlying cardiovascular disease at baseline between 1987 and 2018. Each patient was compared with two controls without AF from the National Total Population Register. In total, 227 811 patients and 452 712 controls were included. During a mean follow-up of 9.1 (standard deviation 7.0) years, the hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset HF was 3.55 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.51-3.60] in patients compared with controls. Women with AF (18-34 years) had HR for HF onset 24.6 (95% CI 7.59-80.0) and men HR 9.86 (95% CI 6.81-14.27). The highest risk was within 1 year in patients 18-34 years, HR 103.9 (95% CI 46.3-233.1). The incidence rate within 1 year increased from 6.2 (95% CI 4.5-8.6) per 1000 person-years in young patients (18-34 years) to 142.8 (95% CI 139.4-146.3) per 1000 person-years among older patients (>80 years). CONCLUSIONS: Patients studied had a three-fold higher risk of developing HF compared with controls. Young patients, particularly women, carry up to 100-fold increased risk to develop HF within 1 year after AF. Further studies in patients with AF and low cardiovascular risk profile are needed to prevent serious complications such as HF.
Assuntos
Fibrilação Atrial , Insuficiência Cardíaca , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Fibrilação Atrial/complicações , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Suécia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Volume Sistólico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/etiologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/diagnósticoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with transcatheter closure of an atrial shunt (ASCIos), compared to patients with an atrial shunt and cerebrovascular event (CVE) but only medical treated (ASMed), and to age- and sex-matched control individuals without a previous CVE. METHODS: In total, 663 ASCIos patients were identified in the Swedish National Patient Register from 1997 to 2016 and matched by using propensity score with 663 ASMed patients. Nine age- and sex-matched controls to ASCIos patients (n = 6,302) without a diagnosis of atrial shunt or history of CVE were randomly selected from the general population. RESULTS: At a mean follow-up of 6.5 years, the incidence rate of recurrent stroke in the ASCIos group vs ASMed group was 0.9 vs 0.7 per 100 patient-years. The hazard ratio of recurrent stroke in the ASCIos group compared with index stroke in the control group was 9.9 (95% confidence interval, 5.5-17.9). The incidence of atrial fibrillation was similar in the ASCIos and the ASMed group, however four times higher in the ASCIos than in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Our large nationwide, register-based cohort study showed that, unexpectedly, the risk of recurrent stroke in the ASCos group was as high as in the ASMed group and almost ten times higher than the risk of an index stroke in matched controls without previous stroke.
Assuntos
Fibrilação Atrial , Forame Oval Patente , Ataque Isquêmico Transitório , AVC Isquêmico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Humanos , Ataque Isquêmico Transitório/etiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/cirurgia , AVC Isquêmico/complicações , Forame Oval Patente/complicações , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/terapia , Infarto Cerebral/complicações , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The survival of children with congenital heart disease has increased substantially over the past decades, with 97% currently reaching adulthood. The total effect of advanced treatment on future mortality and morbidity in adult survivors with congenital heart disease (CHD) is less well described. METHODS: We used data from the Swedish National Inpatient, Outpatient, and Cause of Death Register to identify patients with CHD who were born between 1950 and 1999 and were alive at 18 years of age. Ten controls identified from the Total Population Register were matched for year of birth and sex and with each patient with CHD. Follow-up was from 1968 and 18 years of age until death or at the end of the study (2017). Survival percentage with 95% CI for all-cause mortality were performed with Kaplan-Meier survival function. Cox proportional hazard regression models with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI were used to estimate the risk of all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We included 37 278 patients with adult CHD (ACHD) and 412 799 controls. Mean follow-up was 19.2 years (±13.6). Altogether, 1937 patients with ACHD (5.2%) and 6690 controls (1.6%) died, a death rate of 2.73 per 1000 person-years and 0.84 per 1000 person years, respectively. Mortality was 3.2 times higher (95% CI, 3.0-3.4; P<0.001) among patients with ACHD compared with matched controls. Up to the maximum of 50 years of follow-up, >75% of patients with ACHD were still alive. Mortality was highest among patients with conotruncal defects (HR, 10.13 [95% CI, 8.78-11.69]), but also significantly higher for the more benign lesions, with the lowest risk in patients with atrial septal defects (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.19-1.55]). At least 75% of patients with ACHD alive at 18 years of age lived past middle age and became sexagenerians. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, nationwide, register-based cohort study of patients with ACHD surviving to 18 years of age, the risk of mortality up to 68 years of age was >3 times higher compared with matched controls without ACHD. Despite this, at least 75% of patients with CHD alive at 18 years of age lived past middle age and became sexagenerians. A notable risk decline in the mortality for patients with ACHD was seen for those born after 1975.