Characterizing human mobility patterns in rural settings of sub-Saharan Africa.

Human mobility is a core component of human behavior and its quantification is critical for understanding its impact on infectious disease transmission, traffic forecasting, access to resources and care, intervention strategies, and migratory flows. When mobility data are limited, spatial interaction models have been widely used to estimate human travel, but have not been extensively validated in low- and middle-income settings. Geographic, sociodemographic, and infrastructure differences may impact the ability for models to capture these patterns, particularly in rural settings. Here, we analyzed mobility patterns inferred from mobile phone data in four Sub-Saharan African countries to investigate the ability for variants on gravity and radiation models to estimate travel. Adjusting the gravity model such that parameters were fit to different trip types, including travel between more or less populated areas and/or different regions, improved model fit in all four countries. This suggests that alternative models may be more useful in these settings and better able to capture the range of mobility patterns observed.

Comparative analysis of time-based and quadrat sampling in seasonal population dynamics of intermediate hosts of human schistosomes.

BACKGROUND: Despite their importance for designing and evaluating schistosomiasis control trials, little attention in the literature has been dedicated to sampling protocols for the parasite's snail intermediate hosts since their first development. We propose a comparative analysis of time-based and quadrat sampling protocols to quantify the seasonal variations in the abundance of these aquatic snail species of medical importance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Snail populations were monitored during 42 consecutive months in three types of habitats (ephemeral pond, ephemeral river and permanent stream) in two sites covering different climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We employed both a widely used time-based protocol of 30min of systematic collection at a weekly interval, and a quadrat protocol of 8 replicates per sample at a monthly interval. The correspondence between the two protocols was evaluated using an ensemble of statistical models including linear and saturating-type functional forms as well as allowing for count zero-inflation. The quadrat protocol yielded on average a relative standard error of 40%, for a mean snail density of 16.7 snails/m2 and index of dispersion of 1.51. Both protocols yielded similar seasonal patterns in snail abundance, confirming the asynchrony between permanent and ephemeral habitats with respect to the country's seasonal rainfall patterns. Formal model comparison of the link between time vs. quadrat counts showed strong support of saturation for the latter and measurement zero-inflation, providing important evidence for the presence of density feedbacks in the snail's population dynamics, as well as for spatial clustering. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to the agreement with the time-based method, quadrat sampling provided insight into snail population dynamics and comparable density estimates across sites. The re-evaluation of these "traditional" sampling protocols, as well as the correspondence between their outputs, is of practical importance for the design and evaluation of schistosomiasis control trials.

Space and time predictions of schistosomiasis snail host population dynamics across hydrologic regimes in Burkina Faso.

The ecology of the aquatic snails that serve as obligatory intermediate hosts of human schistosomiasis is driven by climatic and hydrological factors which result in specific spatial patterns of occurrence and abundance. These patterns in turn affect, jointly with other determinants, the geography of the disease and the timing of transmission windows, with direct implications for the success of control and elimination programmes in the endemic countries. We address the spatial distribution of the intermediate hosts and their seasonal population dynamics within a predictive ecohydrological framework developed at the national scale for Burkina Faso, West Africa. The approach blends river network-wide information on hydrological ephemerality which conditions snail habitat suitability together with ensembles of discrete time ecological models forced by remotely sensed estimates of temperature and precipitation. The models were validated against up to four years of monthly snail abundance data. Simulations of model ensembles accounting for the uncertainty in remotely sensed products adequately reproduce observed snail demographic fluctuations observed in the field across habitat types, and produce national scale predictions by accounting for spatial patterns of hydrological conditions in the country. Geospatial estimates of seasonal snail abundance underpin large-scale, spatially explicit predictions of schistosomiasis incidence. This work can therefore contribute to the development of disease control and elimination programmes.

Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.

We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.

A Theoretical Analysis of the Geography of Schistosomiasis in Burkina Faso Highlights the Roles of Human Mobility and Water Resources Development in Disease Transmission.

We study the geography of schistosomiasis across Burkina Faso by means of a spatially explicit model of water-based disease dynamics. The model quantitatively addresses the geographic stratification of disease burden in a novel framework by explicitly accounting for drivers and controls of the disease, including spatial information on the distributions of population and infrastructure, jointly with a general description of human mobility and climatic/ecological drivers. Spatial patterns of disease are analysed by the extraction and the mapping of suitable eigenvectors of the Jacobian matrix subsuming the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The relevance of the work lies in the novel mapping of disease burden, a byproduct of the parametrization induced by regional upscaling, by model-guided field validations and in the predictive scenarios allowed by exploiting the range of possible parameters and processes. Human mobility is found to be a primary control at regional scales both for pathogen invasion success and the overall distribution of disease burden. The effects of water resources development highlighted by systematic reviews are accounted for by the average distances of human settlements from water bodies that are habitats for the parasite's intermediate host. Our results confirm the empirical findings about the role of water resources development on disease spread into regions previously nearly disease-free also by inspection of empirical prevalence patterns. We conclude that while the model still needs refinements based on field and epidemiological evidence, the proposed framework provides a powerful tool for large-scale public health planning and schistosomiasis management.