Leisure-time physical activity mitigated the cognitive effect of PM2.5 and PM2.5 components exposure: Evidence from a nationwide longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) impairs cognition, while physical activity (PA) improves cognitive function. However, whether taking PA with PM2.5 exposure is still beneficial to cognition remains unknown. METHODS: We utilized national representative longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Study (CFPS), comprising a total sample of 108,099 from 2010 to 2018 in three waves. Cognitive performance and leisure-time PA were measured using the standard cognitive module and Godin-Shephard Leisure-Time Physical Activity Questionnaire. Gridded overall PM2.5 and major chemical components of PM2.5 were estimated using a two-stage machine learning model and matched to each participant based on their residential location. Mixed-effect models and difference-in-difference models were employed to investigate the individual and joint effects of total PM2.5, PM2.5 components, and leisure-time PA on cognition. RESULTS: Every 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a -0.035 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.052, -0.018) point change in cognitive score. All PM2.5 components exhibited negative associations with cognitive change, with black carbon (BC) contributing the most significant cognitive decline (ß = -1.025, 95% CI = -1.367, -0.683). Every one-time (or one-hour) increase in leisure-time PA frequency (or PA time) per week was associated with an increase in cognitive score by 0.576 (0.270) points (PA frequency: 95% CI = 0.544, 0.608, PA time: 95% CI = 0.248, 0.293). PA frequency (ß = -0.005, 95% CI = -0.006, -0.003) and PA time (ß = -0.002, 95% CI = -0.003, -0.001) exhibited interactive effects with PM2.5. Increased PA frequency and time were more beneficial to cognitive function in the low PM2.5 exposure group compared to those exposed to high PM2.5 levels. Moreover, relative to lower PM2.5 exposure, the cognitive benefits of physically active individuals with higher PM2.5 exposure were attenuated but still improved cognition when compared to those with no PA. CONCLUSION: Engaging in leisure-time PA provides cognitive benefits even under PM2.5 exposure, although PM2.5 exposure attenuates these benefits. Among all PM2.5 components, BC demonstrated the most significant cognitive hazard and interaction with leisure-time PA. Promoting PA as a preventive measure may offer a cost-effective and convenient strategy to mitigate the negative impact of PM2.5 exposure on cognition. There is no excuse to avoid PA under PM2.5 exposure, as its cognitive benefits persist even in polluted environments.

Impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on sugar producers in Ukraine.

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages can promote health and raise revenue. Whether these taxes negatively impact domestic sugar producers, an argument often made by opponents, is understudied. We extended a simulation model based on a uniform specific volume-based tax of UAH 4/L in Ukraine. We estimated best- and worst-case scenarios for reductions in domestic sugar demand to be 162 and 23 000 metric tons. This is at worst ∼0.5% of current exports, meaning decreases in domestic demand could easily be absorbed by export markets given export trends. Due to highly protectionist sugar sector policy, sugar producers would not be able to fully substitute domestic sales revenues through increased export revenues, but the worst-case revenue gap was <0.5% of total sectoral output in recent years. Overall, introducing a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ukraine is likely to have a very limited impact on domestic sugar producers.

Global Coverage and Design of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes.

Importance: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are gaining in popularity. The lack of a comprehensive repository of standardized data on SSB taxes and their designs, however, has stymied understanding of current practice in SSB taxes. Objective: To assess the coverage and design of SSB taxes worldwide using the new Global SSB Tax Database. Evidence Review: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes were collated from existing data sources, hand-searching of peer-reviewed and gray literature, and an internet search. Relevant legislation was identified to verify each tax and extract data on designs. Findings: A total of 118 taxes were verified, including 105 national and 13 subnational taxes. National SSB taxes are in effect in 103 countries and territories, covering 51% of the world's population. A total of 67% of people living in low-income and 73% in lower-middle-income economies are covered by national SSB taxes, compared with 29% in upper-middle-income and high-income economies. National SSB taxes cover 98% of the population in South Asia compared with only 10% in East Asia and the Pacific. Most SSB taxes are excise taxes (104 of 118 [88%]). Excise taxes in high-income economies are mostly specific (27 of 36 [75%]), whereas ad valorem and mixed taxes are more common in low- and middle-income economies (36 of 66 [55%]). Most specific excise taxes are based on volume only (54 of 59 [92%]), with just 3 jurisdictions applying purely sugar-specific excise taxes. More than half of excise taxes worldwide (55 of 104 [53%]) apply tiered rates, with tiers more commonly defined by beverage type (41 of 55 [75%]) than by sugar content (18 of 55 [33%]). Tiers defined by sugar content are mainly used in high-income countries (13 of 18 [72%]) and Europe and Central Asia (10 of 18 [56%]). Almost one-third of excise taxes worldwide (30 of 104 [29%]) and almost half of excise taxes in low- and middle-income economies (28 of 66 [42%]) apply to unsweetened bottled water. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides a comprehensive review of global coverage and design of SSB taxes. Sugar-sweetened beverage tax coverage is higher than previously reported, with clear differences in designs between regions and income groups. These findings can inform a more empirically grounded approach to SSB tax guidance.

Effects of calorie labelling and contextual factors on hypothetical coffee shop menu choices.

This study examined the effects of calorie labelling and two key contextual factors (reflective motivation and habits) on the calorie content of hypothetical coffee-shop menu choices. In one exploratory (n = 70) and one pre-registered (n = 300) laboratory study (Studies 1 and 2 respectively), participants viewed a hypothetical calorie-labelled or non calorie-labelled menuboard and selected their preferred item(s). Coffee shop drinking habits were measured using the Self-Report Habit Index, and reflective motivation (relating to calorie intake) was assessed with three items asking about watching weight, eating healthily, and reading calorie labels. In Study 2, participants also estimated calories contained in a subset of the menuboard drinks. Results of both studies showed that labelling did not significantly affect the total calorie content of items selected. However, in Study 2, as predicted, there was a trend toward moderation by reflective motivation (p = .056) with less motivated participants showing relatively greater calorie selection when exposed to labelling. Participants with weaker habits took longer to select items (p = .002) but, contrary to predictions, were not more influenced by labelling. Higher reflective motivation was associated with selecting fewer calories (p = .002), correctly recalling the presence/absence of labelling (p = .016) and better estimating calorie content (p < .001). Overall, participants significantly underestimated calories in higher calorie drinks but overestimated calories in lower calorie drinks. The results highlight the importance of contextual factors such as habits and reflective motivation for obesity interventions and are relevant for the UK's introduction of selective mandatory calorie labelling. In some instances, labelling may actually increase intake among those less motivated by health and weight concerns, but further research is needed to substantiate this concern.

Financial interests of patient organisations contributing to technology assessment at England's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: policy review.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of financial interests among patient organisations contributing to health technology assessment at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England and the extent to which NICE's disclosure policy ensures that decision making committees are aware of these interests. DESIGN: Policy review using accounts, annual reports, and websites of patient organisations; payments declared by pharmaceutical manufacturers on their websites and a centralised database (Disclosure UK); declarations of interests by nominated representatives of patient organisations; and responses from patient organisations. SETTING: Appraisals of medicines and treatments (technologies) for use in the English and Welsh National Health Service. PARTICIPANTS: 53 patient organisations contributing to 41 NICE technology appraisals published in 2015 and 2016, with 117 separate occasions that a patient organisation contributed to the appraisal of a technology. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of specific interests (that is, funding from manufacturer(s) of a technology under appraisal or competitor products); proportion of specific interests of which NICE's decision making committees were aware; proportion of unknown specific interests for which disclosure was not required by NICE's policy RESULTS: 38/53 (72%) patient organisations had accepted funding from the manufacturer(s) of a technology or a competitor product in the same year that they had contributed to the appraisal of that technology or the previous year. Specific interests were present on 92/117 (79%) occasions that patient organisations contributed to appraisals in 2015 and 2016. NICE's decision making committees were aware of less than a quarter of specific interests (30/144; 21%). For nearly two thirds of the specific interests not known to committees (71/114; 62%), disclosure by patient organisations was not required by NICE's policy. CONCLUSIONS: Financial interests are highly prevalent among patient organisations contributing to health technology assessment. NICE should review its disclosure policy to ensure that decision making committees are aware of all relevant interests.

QUALITY ASSURANCE OF REGISTRIES FOR HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify guidelines and assessment tools used by health technology agencies for quality assurance of registries and investigate the current use of registry data by HTA organizations worldwide. METHODS: As part of a European Network for Health Technology Assessment Joint Action work package, we undertook a literature search and sent a questionnaire to all partner organizations on the work package and all organizations listed in the International Society for Pharmaco-economics and Outcomes Research directory. RESULTS: We identified thirteen relevant documents relating to quality assurance of registries. We received fifty-five responses from organizations representing twenty-one different countries, a response rate of 40.5 percent (43/110). Many agencies, particularly in Europe, are already drawing on a range of registries to provide data for their HTA. Less than half, however, use criteria or standards to assess the quality of registry data. Nearly all criteria or standards in use have been internally defined by organizations rather than referring to those produced by an external body. A comparison of internal and external standards identified consistency in several quality dimensions, which can be used as a starting point for the development of a standardized tool. CONCLUSION: The use of registry data is more prevalent than expected, strengthening the need for a standardized registry quality assessment tool. A user-friendly tool developed in conjunction with stakeholders will support the consistent application of approved quality standards, and reassure critics who have traditionally considered registry data to be unreliable.

Political views of doctors in the UK: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the political views of doctors in the UK despite doctors' importance in the functioning of the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: This is a survey-based, cross-sectional study in which we asked questions about voting behaviour in 2015 and 2017 UK general elections and 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union (EU) (Brexit), and questions relating to recent health policies. RESULTS: 1172 doctors (45.1% women) from 1295 responded to an online survey. 60.5% described their political views as 'left-wing' and 62.2% described themselves as 'liberal'. 79.4% of respondents voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum compared with 48.1% of voters as a whole (χ2=819.8, p<0.001). 98.6% of respondents agreed that EU nationals working in the NHS should be able to remain in the UK after Brexit. The median score for the impact of Brexit on the NHS on a scale of 0 (worst impact) to 10 (best impact) was 2 (IQR=1-4). Most respondents agreed with the introduction of minimum alcohol pricing in the UK (73.9%), charging patients who are not eligible for NHS treatment for non-urgent care (70.6%) and protecting a portion of national spending for the NHS (87.1%). 65.8% thought there was too much use of NHS-funded private sector provision in their medical practice. Specialty, income and grade were associated with divergent opinions. CONCLUSIONS: UK doctors are left-leaning and liberal in general, which is reflected in their opinions on topical health policy issues. Doctors in the UK voted differently from the general electorate in recent polls.

Assessing the quality of health technology registers for national guidance development.

Background: The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence makes use of registers to collect data for technologies that require more evidence to inform future decision-making. This is particularly so for the Interventional Procedures Programme, which since 2003 has produced guidance for procedures that are typically not well established, meaning that named registers are often recommended for future data collection. Methods: We constructed a questionnaire based on quality standards for recommended registers defined by the Interventional Procedures Programme. All guidance from 2003 to 2016 were reviewed to identify recommended registers and compile a list of corresponding registries. We made a maximum of four attempts to contact each registry. Each register was scored on seven quality standards: accessibility, responsiveness, data publication, data coverage, data validity, independent oversight and data protection, with a maximum of 14 points. Results: We obtained responses from 17 out of 24 eligible registries, a response rate of 70.8%. The mean total score was 8.5 (standard deviation 2.9, range 4-14). Overall, the quality of recommended registers was disappointing, with a split between large registries that scored highly across all standards and smaller registries that scored poorly. Conclusions: This the first study to our knowledge to assess the quality of registers recommended by health technology assessment agencies. Only a limited number of registers were mature enough to deliver evidence of sufficiently high quality to inform funding decisions. A standardised quality assessment tool is needed to evaluate registers before their recommendation for observational data gathering by decision-making bodies.

Specialty training for the retention of Malawian doctors: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

Few medical schools and sustained emigration have led to low numbers of doctors in many sub-Saharan African countries. The opportunity to undertake specialty training has been shown to be particularly important in retaining doctors. Yet limited training capacity means that doctors are often sent to other countries to specialise, increasing the risk that they may not return. Expanding domestic training, however, may be constrained by the reluctance of doctors to accept training in their home country. We modelled different policy options in an example country, Malawi, to examine the cost-effectiveness of expanding specialty training to retain doctors in sub-Saharan Africa. We designed a Markov model of the physician labour market in Malawi, incorporating data from graduate tracing studies in 2006 and 2012, a 2013 discrete choice experiment on 148 Malawian doctors and 2015 cost data. A government perspective was taken with a time horizon of 40 years. Expanded specialty training in Malawi or South Africa with increasing mandatory service before training was compared against baseline conditions. The outcome measures were cost per doctor-year and cost per specialist-year spent working in the Malawian public sector. Expanding specialty training in Malawi is more cost-effective than training outside Malawi. At least two years of mandatory service would be more cost-effective, with five years adding the most value in terms of doctor-years. After 40 years of expanded specialty training in Malawi, the medical workforce would be over fifty percent larger with over six times the number of specialists compared to current trends. However, the government would need to be willing to pay at least 3.5 times more per doctor-year for a 5% increase and a third more per specialist-year for a four-fold increase. Greater returns are possible from doctors with more flexible training preferences. Sustained funding of specialty training may improve retention in sub-Saharan Africa.

The use of specialty training to retain doctors in Malawi: A discrete choice experiment.

Emigration has contributed to a shortage of doctors in many sub-Saharan African countries. Specialty training is highly valued by doctors and a potential tool for retention. Yet not all types of training may be valued equally. In the first study to examine preferences for postgraduate training in depth, we carried out a discrete choice experiment as part of a cross-sectional survey of all Malawian doctors within seven years of graduation and not yet in specialty training. Over August 2012 to March 2013, 148 doctors took part out of 153 eligible in Malawi. Despite evidence that specialty training is highly sought after, Malawian junior doctors would not accept all types of training. Doctors preferred timely training outside of Malawi in core specialties (internal medicine, general surgery, paediatrics, obstetrics & gynaecology). Specialty preferences are particularly strong, with most junior doctors requiring nearly double their monthly salary to accept training all in Malawi and over six-fold to accept training in ophthalmology (representing a bundle of unpopular but priority specialties). In contrast, the location of work before training did not significantly influence most doctors' choices when guaranteed specialty training. Using a latent class model, we identified four subgroups of junior doctors with distinct preferences. Policy simulations showed that these preferences could be leveraged by policymakers to improve retention in exchange for guaranteed specialty training, however incentivising the uptake of training in priority specialties will only be effective in those with more flexible preferences. These results indicate that indiscriminate expansion of postgraduate training to slow emigration of doctors from sub-Saharan African countries may not be effective unless doctors' preferences are taken into account.

Early career retention of Malawian medical graduates: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: There have been longstanding concerns over Malawian doctors migrating to high-income countries. Early career is a particularly vulnerable period. After significant policy changes, we examined the retention of recent medical graduates within Malawi and the public sector. METHODS: We obtained data on graduates between 2006 and 2012 from the University of Malawi College of Medicine and Malawi Ministry of Health. We utilised the alumni network to triangulate official data and contacted graduates directly for missing or uncertain data. Odds ratios and chi-squared tests were employed to investigate relationships by graduation year and gender. RESULTS: We traced 256 graduates, with complete information for more than 90%. Nearly 80% of registered doctors were in Malawi (141/178, 79.2%), although the odds of emigration doubled with each year after graduation (odds ratio = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.54-2.56, P < 0.0001). Of the 37 graduates outside Malawi (14.5%), 23 (62.2%) were training in South Africa under a College of Medicine sandwich programme. More than 80% of graduates were working in the public sector (185/218, 82.6%), with the odds declining by 27% for each year after graduation (odds ratio = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.61-0.86, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: While most doctors remain in Malawi and the public sector during their early careers, the odds of leaving both increase with time. The majority of graduates outside Malawi are training in South Africa under visa restrictions, reflecting the positive impact of postgraduate training in Malawi. Concerns over attrition from the public sector are valid and require further exploratory work.

The use of discrete choice experiments to inform health workforce policy: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Discrete choice experiments have become a popular study design to study the labour market preferences of health workers. Discrete choice experiments in health, however, have been criticised for lagging behind best practice and there are specific methodological considerations for those focused on job choices. We performed a systematic review of the application of discrete choice experiments to inform health workforce policy. METHODS: We searched for discrete choice experiments that examined the labour market preferences of health workers, including doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, mid-level and community health workers. We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, other databases and grey literature repositories with no limits on date or language and contacted 44 experts. Features of choice task and experimental design, conduct and analysis of included studies were assessed against best practice. An assessment of validity was undertaken for all studies, with a comparison of results from those with low risk of bias and a similar objective and context. RESULTS: Twenty-seven studies were included, with over half set in low- and middle-income countries. There were more studies published in the last four years than the previous ten years. Doctors or medical students were the most studied cadre. Studies frequently pooled results from heterogeneous subgroups or extrapolated these results to the general population. Only one third of studies included an opt-out option, despite all health workers having the option to exit the labour market. Just five studies combined results with cost data to assess the cost effectiveness of various policy options. Comparison of results from similar studies broadly showed the importance of bonus payments and postgraduate training opportunities and the unpopularity of time commitments for the uptake of rural posts. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first systematic review of discrete choice experiments in human resources for health. We identified specific issues relating to this application of which practitioners should be aware to ensure robust results. In particular, there is a need for more defined target populations and increased synthesis with cost data. Research on a wider range of health workers and the generalisability of results would be welcome to better inform policy.

Using Social Networking Sites for Communicable Disease Control: Innovative Contact Tracing or Breach of Confidentiality?

Social media applications such as Twitter, YouTube and Facebook have attained huge popularity, with more than three billion people and organizations predicted to have a social networking account by 2015. Social media offers a rapid avenue of communication with the public and has potential benefits for communicable disease control and surveillance. However, its application in everyday public health practice raises a number of important issues around confidentiality and autonomy. We report here a case from local level health protection where the friend of an individual with meningococcal septicaemia used a social networking site to notify potential contacts.

Academics and competing interests in H1N1 influenza media reporting.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised over competing interests (CoI) among academics during the 2009 to 2010 A/H1N1 pandemic. Media reporting can influence public anxiety and demand for pharmaceutical products. We assessed CoI of academics providing media commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. METHODS: We performed a retrospective content analysis of UK newspaper articles on A/H1N1 influenza, examining quoted sources. We noted when academics made a risk assessment of the pandemic and compared this with official estimations. We also looked for promotion or rejection of the use of neuraminidase inhibitors or H1N1-specific vaccine. We independently searched for CoI for each academic. RESULTS: Academics were the second most frequently quoted source after Ministers of Health. Where both academics and official agencies estimated the risk of H1N1, one in two academics assessed the risk as higher than official predictions. For academics with CoI, the odds of a higher risk assessment were 5.8 times greater than those made by academics without CoI (Wald p value=0.009). One in two academics commenting on the use of neuraminidase inhibitors or vaccine had CoI. The odds of CoI in academics promoting the use of neuraminidase inhibitors were 8.4 times greater than for academics not commenting on their use (Fisher's exact p=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of CoI among academics providing media commentary during the early H1N1 pandemic. Heightened risk assessments, combined with advocacy for pharmaceutical products to counter this risk, may lead to increased public anxiety and demand. Academics should declare, and journalists report, relevant CoI for media interviews.

Future career plans of Malawian medical students: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Malawi has one of the lowest physician densities in the world, at 1.1 doctors per 100,000 population. Undergraduate training of doctors at the national medical school has increased considerably in recent years with donor support. However, qualified doctors continue to leave the public sector in order to work or train abroad. We explored the postgraduate plans of current medical students, and the extent to which this is influenced by their background. METHODS: A self-administered questionnaire was developed after discussion with students and senior staff. This included questions on background characteristics, education before medical school, and future career plans. This was distributed to all medical and premedical students on campus over 1 week and collected by an independent researcher. One reminder visit was made to each class. Chi-squared tests were performed to investigate the relationship of student characteristics with future career plans. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-nine students completed the questionnaire out of a student body of 312, a response rate of 48%. When questioned on their plans for after graduation, 49.0% of students plan to stay in Malawi. However, 38.9% plan to leave Malawi immediately. Medical students who completed a 'premedical' foundation year at the medical school were significantly more likely to have immediate plans to stay in Malawi compared to those who completed A-levels, an advanced school-leaving qualification (P = 0.037). Current premedical students were slightly more likely to have immediate plans to work or train in Malawi compared to medical students (P = 0.049). However, a trend test across all the years was not significant. When asked about future plans, nearly half of students intend to work or train outside Malawi. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of respondents plan to leave Malawi in the future. The effectiveness of the substantial upscaling of medical education in Malawi may be diminished unless more medical students plan to work in Malawi after graduation.