Machine Learning to Predict Outcomes of Fetal Cardiac Disease: A Pilot Study.

Prediction of outcomes following a prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart disease (CHD) is challenging. Machine learning (ML) algorithms may be used to reduce clinical uncertainty and improve prognostic accuracy. We performed a pilot study to train ML algorithms to predict postnatal outcomes based on clinical data. Specific objectives were to predict (1) in utero or neonatal death, (2) high-acuity neonatal care and (3) favorable outcomes. We included all fetuses with cardiac disease at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada, from 2012 to 2021. Prediction models were created using the XgBoost algorithm (tree-based) with fivefold cross-validation. Among 211 cases of fetal cardiac disease, 61 were excluded (39 terminations, 21 lost to follow-up, 1 isolated arrhythmia), leaving a cohort of 150 fetuses. Fifteen (10%) demised (10 neonates) and 65 (48%) of live births required high acuity neonatal care. Of those with clinical follow-up, 60/87 (69%) had a favorable outcome. Prediction models for fetal or neonatal death, high acuity neonatal care and favorable outcome had AUCs of 0.76, 0.84 and 0.73, respectively. The most important predictors for death were the presence of non-cardiac abnormalities combined with more severe CHD. High acuity of postnatal care was predicted by anti Ro antibody and more severe CHD. Favorable outcome was most predicted by no right heart disease combined with genetic abnormalities, and maternal medications. Prediction models using ML provide good discrimination of key prenatal and postnatal outcomes among fetuses with congenital heart disease.

Right ventricular function during exercise in children after heart transplantation.

Aims: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is a common problem after heart transplant (HTx). In this study, we used semi-supine bicycle ergometry (SSBE) stress echocardiography to evaluate RV systolic and diastolic reserve in paediatric HTx recipients. Methods and results: Thirty-nine pediatric HTx recipients and 23 controls underwent stepwise SSBE stress echocardiography. Colour tissue doppler imaging (TDI) peak systolic (s') and peak diastolic (e') velocities, myocardial acceleration during isovolumic contraction (IVA), and RV free wall longitudinal strain were measured at incremental heart rates (HR). The relationship with increasing HR was evaluated for each parameter by plotting values at each stage of exercise versus HR using linear and non-linear regression models. At rest, HTx recipients had higher HR with lower TDI velocities (s': 5.4 ± 1.7 vs. 10.4 ± 1.8 cm/s, P < 0.001; e': 6.4 ± 2.2 vs.12 ± 2.4 cm/s, P < 0.001) and RV IVA values (IVA: 1.2 ± 0.4 vs. 1.6 ± 0.8 m/s2, P = 0.04), while RV free wall longitudinal strain was similar between groups. At peak exercise, HR was higher in controls and all measurements of RV function were significantly lower in HTx recipients, except for RV free wall longitudinal strain. When assessing the increase in each parameter vs. HR, the slopes were not significantly different between patients and controls except for IVA, which was lower in HTx recipients. Conclusion: In pediatric HTx recipients RV systolic and diastolic functional response to exercise is preserved with a normal increase in TDI velocities and strain values with increasing HR. The blunted IVA response possibly indicates a mildly decreased RV contractile response but it requires further investigation.

Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention after Kawasaki Disease: The Pediatric Canadian Series.

Coronary artery (CA) aneurysms are serious complications of Kawasaki disease (KD) responsible for ischemic events. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are reported with limited data on indications and comparative efficacy. Retrospective multicenter comparison of CA intervention following KD is performed in this study. Twenty two cases were available from 5 centers, of whom 11 underwent CABG, 10 PCI and 1 systemic thrombolysis. Age at intervention (8.3 ± 3.9 vs 11.3 ± 4.9 years, p = 0.14) and interval from diagnosis (5.6 ± 4.1 vs 6.5 ± 4.7 years, p = 0.64) were similar between CABG and PCI. Interventions were based on angiography in 15 patients or cardiac event in 7, with no difference between CABG and PCI (p = 0.24). Patients with CABG were more likely to undergo multivessel intervention (73 vs 10 %, p = 0.006). None of the patients needed reintervention after CABG, compared to 6 after PCI and 1 after systemic thrombolysis (p = 0.004). Signs of ischemia on stress testing or MIBI were present in 15 patients before intervention and persisted in 9 patients following last intervention, in a significantly higher proportion after CABG than PCI (80 vs 17 %, p = 0.01). In this series, CABG, which mostly involved multivessel intervention, was superior to PCI. Nevertheless, larger-scale studies may help define patient selection criteria for a beneficial PCI approach.

Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging as a Rule-Out Test for Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy.

Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a leading cause of mortality after heart transplantation. Noninvasive imaging techniques used in CAV evaluation have important limitations. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging to determine an optimal myocardial perfusion reserve index (MPR) cutoff for detecting CAV using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We evaluated CMR performance using sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratio analysis. We included 29 patients (mean 5 ± 4 years after transplant) scheduled for coronary angiography with intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) who completed CMR. CAV was defined as maximal intimal thickness (MIT) >0.5 mm by IVUS of the left anterior descending artery. CAV was evident in 19 patients (70%) on IVUS (mean MIT 0.82 ± 0.42 mm). MPR was significantly lower in patients with MIT ≥0.50 mm (1.35 ± 0.23 vs. 1.71 ± 0.45, p = 0.013). There was moderate inverse correlation between MPR and MIT (r = -0.36, p = 0.075). The optimal MPR cutoff ≤1.68 for predicting CAV showed sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 63%, a negative predictive value of 100%, a positive predictive value of 86% and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.7. An MPR ≤1.68 has high negative predictive value, suggesting its potential as a test to rule out CAV.

Risk factors for specific causes of death following pediatric heart transplant: An analysis of the registry of the International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation.

We sought to determine temporal changes in COD and identify COD-specific risk factors in pediatric primary HTx recipients. Using the ISHLT registry, time-dependent hazard of death after pediatric HTx, stratified by COD, was analyzed by multiphasic parametric hazard modeling with multivariable regression models for risk factor analysis. The proportion of pediatric HTx deaths from each of cardiovascular cause, allograft vasculopathy, and malignancy increased over time, while all other COD decreased post-HTx. Pre-HTx ECMO was associated with increased risk of death from graft failure (HR 2.43; p < 0.001), infection (HR 2.85; p < 0.001), and MOF (HR 2.22; p = 0.001), while post-HTx ECMO was associated with death from cerebrovascular events/bleed (HR 2.55; p = 0.001). CHD was associated with deaths due to pulmonary causes (HR 1.78; p = 0.007) or infection (HR 1.72; p < 0.001). Non-adherence was a significant risk factor for all cardiac COD, notably graft failure (HR 1.66; p = 0.001) and rejection (HR 1.89; p < 0.001). Risk factors related to specific COD are varied across different temporal phases post-HTx. Increased understanding of these factors will assist in risk stratification, guide anticipatory clinical decisions, and potentially improve patient survival.

Development and Impact of De Novo Anti-HLA Antibodies in Pediatric Heart Transplant Recipients.

There is increasing evidence that de novo anti-HLA antibodies, more specifically de novo donor-specific antibodies (DSA) following solid organ transplantation may be associated with negative outcomes including rejection in the first year and graft loss. Limited data are available in pediatric heart transplant recipients. We sought to prospectively determine the incidence, class and early impact of de novo anti-HLA antibodies in a cohort of pediatric heart transplant recipients. Serial panel reactive antibody testing posttransplant was performed in 25 patients (14 males) transplanted between January 2008 and June 2010. Five patients were sensitized pretransplant; all patients had negative direct crossmatch. Seventy-two percent developed de novo anti-HLA antibodies at a median of 2.6 weeks (IQR 1.2 weeks to 6.2 months) posttransplant; 67% of these were DSA. The majority of recipients in our cohort developed de novo anti-HLA antibodies within the first year posttransplant, with two-thirds being donor-specific. Acute cellular rejection, though frequent, was not different in patients with antibody development regardless of class or specificity, and there was no antibody-mediated rejection, graft loss or early cardiac allograft vasculopathy.

Adolescents with severe obesity: outcomes of participation in an intensive obesity management programme.

BACKGROUND: Most interventions for childhood obesity are randomized controlled studies. Less is known about the effectiveness of clinical obesity programmes. OBJECTIVE: To assess outcomes in adolescents participating in the SickKids Team Obesity Management Program (STOMP) vs. a comparison group of obese adolescents. METHODS: Severely obese adolescents (n = 75) in STOMP (15.1 ± 1.8 years, body mass index [BMI] 44.8 ± 7.8 kg m(-2) ) were compared with adolescents (n = 41) not in the programme (14.9 ± 2.0 years, BMI 34.5 ± 8.0 kg m(-2) ). Outcomes were change in BMI, cardiometabolic, psychological and health behaviour measures. RESULTS: At 6 months, STOMP patients' BMI was unchanged (0.08 ± 0.3; P = 0.79) and they reported improvements in quality of life and depression (-3.6 ± 1.4; P = 0.009), and increases in measures of readiness to change (RTC). Between-group differences in change between 0 and 6 months, in favour of STOMP patients, were observed for homeostatic measurement assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR; -2.7 ± 1.0; P = 0.007), depression scores (-3.5 ± 1.7; P = 0.04), diet-RTC (0.6 ± 0.2; P < 0.001) and physical activity (1.7 ± 0.9; P = 0.05). At 12 months, STOMP patients increased BMI (0.8 ± 0.5; P = 0.07), but they exhibited decreased waist circumference (-7.4 ± 2.1 cm; P = 0.001) and HOMA-IR (-1.9 ± 0.6; P = 0.002). Between-group differences in change between 0 and 12 months, in favour of STOMP patients, were observed for waist circumference (-5.9 ± 2.4 cm; P = 0.01), HOMA-IR (-2.9 ± 0.7; P < 0.001) and diet-RTC (0.9 ± 0.2; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: STOMP participants did not experience a significant reduction in BMI but did have improvements in cardiometabolic, psychological and health behaviour outcomes. Evaluation of paediatric clinical obesity programmes using multiple measures is essential to understanding real-world outcomes.

Effects of an acute, outpatient physiotherapy exercise program following pediatric heart or lung transplantation.

This prospective interventional study investigated the impact of a three-month, ambulatory HA or HB, semi-individualized, PT-prescribed exercise program following pediatric HTx or LTx. SMW distance, strength, and flexibility were assessed at start and completion of the program and one yr after enrollment. Subjects received either an HB or HA exercise program three times per week. The cohort demonstrated clinically and statistically significant improvements in SMW distances at three months (425.7 ± 109.4-500.6 ± 93.6 m, p < 0.001) and at one yr (528.5 ± 66.6 m, p = 0.001), although there was no difference between the two groups at any time. Similar improvements were also observed in strength and flexibility measures. Correlates with higher SMW distance at three months and one yr included older age, male gender, and underlying diagnosis other than CHD. Male gender and diagnosis other than CHD were associated with a slower improvement in the SMW distance. This is the first report of institutionally based, outpatient exercise rehabilitation in the recovery following pediatric thoracic transplantation. We found similar improvements to HB interventions up to one yr after surgery. Further study of the role of exercise rehabilitation and long-term fitness outcomes is needed.

Predictive value of bronchoscopy after infant cardiac surgery: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Airway evaluation following infant cardiac surgery often reveals evidence of tracheobronchial narrowing. We studied the association between airway narrowing and extubation failure (EF) in this population. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of infants (age ≤6 months) from March-September 2009. Flexible bronchoscopy (FB) evaluations were obtained using a standardised protocol after operative intervention. The primary endpoint was the development of extubation failure (EF; defined as the need for invasive mechanical ventilation ≤48 h after primary extubation) and several secondary endpoints. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were evaluated at a median age of 81 [interquartile range (IQR) 13-164] days and weight of 4.2 (IQR 3.2-6.0) kg; 13 (25 %) of the patients had single ventricle palliations and two subsequently underwent heart transplantation. Significant airway narrowing was noted in 15 of 30 [50 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 31-69 %] patients who underwent FB; ten of the 53 patients (19 %, 95 %CI 10-32 %) subsequently developed EF. Narrowed airway calibre on bronchoscopy had a sensitivity and specificity of 50 % (95 %CI 28-71 %) and 50 % (95 %CI 28-71 %), respectively, for EF. The single greatest predictor of EF by univariate analysis was the need for preoperative ventilation [odds ratio (OR) 6.5, 95 %CI 1.3-33.2, p = 0.03]. Patients with EF had a greater likelihood of intensive care readmission (OR 4.8, 95 %CI 1.1-21, p < 0.04) during the same hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Airway narrowing on FB is noted frequently after infant cardiac surgery. Overall assessment and presence of narrowing on bronchoscopy had poor sensitivity and specificity for EF in our cohort. Expert assessment of tracheobronchial narrowing on FB has poor to moderate inter-rater reliability.

Enhanced exercise performance and survival associated with evidence of autonomic reinnervation in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

Following heart transplantation (HTx), loss of autonomic input to the allograft results in elevated resting heart rate (HR) and decreased chronotropic reserve. As enhanced exercise capacity and HR recovery post exercise are suggestive of reinnervation in pediatric cohorts, we used heart rate variability (HRV) analysis to assess autonomic reinnervation in pediatric HTx recipients. Pediatric patients transplanted between 1996 and 2010 and with serial 24-hour Holter recordings post-HTx were analyzed for HRV using time and frequency domain measures. Of 112 patients, 68 (57%) showed evidence of autonomic reinnervation that was not associated with age at HTx. Evidence of reinnervation was associated with a significant increase in low-frequency power spectrum (p<0.001), suggesting sympathetic reinnervation. Patients with evidence of reinnervation showed higher percent-predicted maxVO(2) on performing an exercise test (+10.2 ± 3.6%, p = 0.006) and improved HR recovery at 3 minutes (-11.4 ± 3.9 bpm, p = 0.004), but no difference in percent-predicted maximal HR. Cox hazards modeling using presumed sinus reinnervation criteria at last Holter recording as a time-dependent covariate was associated with decreased hazard of mortality and/or retransplantation (HR: 0.2, 95% CI 0.04-1.0, p = 0.05). In conclusion, a majority of pediatric HTx recipients demonstrate evidence of reinnervation that is associated with functional outcomes. Studies to assess graft reinnervation as a marker of long-term prognosis are warranted.

Development of donor-specific isohemagglutinins following pediatric ABO-incompatible heart transplantation.

Graft acceptance following pediatric ABO-incompatible heart transplantation has been associated with a deficiency of donor-specific isohemagglutinins (DSI) due to B-cell elimination. Recent observations suggest that some of these patients do produce DSI. The purpose of this study was to examine the pattern of, risk factors for development and clinical impact of DSI. All children who underwent an ABO-incompatible heart transplant (1996-2009) were included. Serial postheart transplantation DSI titers and clinical outcomes were reviewed. DSI were produced in 27% of the patients (n = 11/41). Anti-A production was significantly greater in "at risk" patients than Anti-B (39% vs. 8%; p = 0.04). Risk factors associated with the development of DSI included: older age at transplantation (HR: 1.15/month, p = 0.04), pretransplant Anti-B level ≥ 1:8 (HR: 9.61, p = 0.004) and HLA sensitization (HR: 2.80, p = 0.11). The presence of DSI did increase the risk of cellular rejection but not antibody-mediated rejection, allograft vasculopathy, graft loss or death. Although these antibodies do not result in any significant clinical consequences, their presence suggests that B-cell tolerance is not the sole mechanism of graft acceptance.

Equivalent outcomes for pediatric heart transplantation recipients: ABO-blood group incompatible versus ABO-compatible.

ABO-blood group incompatible infant heart transplantation has had excellent short-term outcomes. Uncertainties about long-term outcomes have been a barrier to the adoption of this strategy worldwide. We report a nonrandomized comparison of clinical outcomes over 10 years of the largest cohort of ABO-incompatible recipients. ABO-incompatible (n = 35) and ABO-compatible (n = 45) infant heart transplantation recipients (< or =14 months old, 1996-2006) showed no important differences in pretransplantation characteristics. There was no difference in incidence of and time to moderate acute cellular rejection. Despite either the presence (seven patients) or development (eight patients) of donor-specific antibodies against blood group antigens, in only two ABO-incompatible patients were these antibodies implicated in antibody-mediated rejection (which occurred early posttransplantation, was easily managed and did not recur in follow-up). Occurrence of graft vasculopathy (11%), malignancy (11%) and freedom from severe renal dysfunction were identical in both groups. Survival was identical (74% at 7 years posttransplantation). ABO-blood group incompatible heart transplantation has excellent outcomes that are indistinguishable from those of the ABO-compatible population and there is no clinical justification for withholding this lifesaving strategy from all infants listed for heart transplantation. Further studies into observed differing responses in the development of donor-specific isohemagglutinins and the implications for graft accommodation are warranted.

Outcomes of prenatally diagnosed tetralogy of Fallot: Implications for valve-sparing repair versus transannular patch.

OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes of prenatally diagnosed tetralogy of Fallot and determine factors associated with the choice to undergo a valvesparing repair versus transannular patch, and the use of prostaglandins at birth. METHODS: All cases at The Hospital for Sick Children (Toronto, Ontario) with a fetal diagnosis of tetralogy of Fallot from 1998 to 2006, were reviewed for demographic and fetal echocardiographic data to determine factors associated with the valve-sparing repair and need for perinatal support. RESULTS: Sixty-four fetuses met inclusion criteria (median gestational age 22 weeks) with 47 live births. Twenty-six underwent valve-sparing repair (median age 5.7 months) and 14 underwent transannular patch repair (median age 4.5 months). There were seven deaths before surgery and one post-transannular patch repair. One patient required a transannular patch repair after the initial valve-sparing repair. Twelve of 29 (41%) patients received prostaglandins at birth. Type of surgical repair, use of prostaglandins and postnatal death were among the outcomes investigated. The mean pulmonary valve (PV) z-score was -3.0+/-2.0 and the mean PV/aortic valve (AoV) ratio was 0.65+/-0.10. Lower PV z-score (P=0.04), smaller PV/AoV ratio (P=0.04) and the presence of nonantegrade arterial duct flow (P=0.02) were associated with prostaglandin use. A higher PV/AoV ratio was associated with valvesparing repair (P=0.04). Fetal z-scores of the PV, AoV and right pulmonary artery at 29 to 32 weeks gestational age correlated with respective postnatal z-scores (P=0.01). CONCLUSION: Fetal echocardiographic variables were associated with the use of prostaglandins and valve-sparing repair in fetuses with tetralogy of Fallot, and at 29 weeks, correlated with postnatal valve diameters.

Left ventricular morphology influences mortality after the Norwood operation.

BACKGROUND: Within the spectrum of congenital heart disease referred to as hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS), there is variation in the morphology and function of the left ventricle which could influence outcomes after stage I Norwood palliation. OBJECTIVE: To determine if left ventricular (LV) morphology is associated with outcome after stage I Norwood palliation for HLHS. METHODS: Echocardiograms were reviewed from 108 patients who had undergone Norwood palliation at our institution over the past 11 years. Total cardiac diameter, thickness of the interventricular septum (IVS), LV area and LV myocardial area were calculated. Competing risk analysis was performed for survival to a stage II operation and to determine potential predictors. RESULTS: From the Norwood operation up to stage II operation, mortality was predicted by IVS thickness, while the absence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction was predictive of survival to stage II operation. For the complete pathway, from Norwood to the Fontan operation, mortality was predicted by IVS, a lower RV fractional area change and the presence of significant tricuspid regurgitation. Cardiac transplantation during this period was predicted by a lower RV fractional area change (p = 0.02) and a larger LV area in diastole. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that LV hypertrophy and decreased RV function adversely effect survival after the Norwood operation. They suggest that LV morphology, especially septal hypertrophy, can influence outcomes in HLHS and should be considered when evaluating treatment options.

Assessment of an infectious disease history preceding juvenile dermatomyositis symptom onset.

OBJECTIVES: A number of studies have looked at the role of infectious diseases in triggering juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). Previous studies have found a moderately high frequency of infectious symptoms prior to disease onset; however, no specific pathogens could be identified. We sought to correlate preceding infectious symptoms with onset and outcomes of JDM. METHODS: We studied an inception cohort of all JDM cases diagnosed at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) between 1988 and 2006. Data pertaining to symptoms at onset, diagnosis and disease outcomes were abstracted. Two independent paediatric infectious disease specialists reviewed all records of patients with symptoms or tests suggestive of infection. RESULTS: A total of 110 patients were reviewed; of these, 78 had sufficient information about disease onset for inclusion. Potential indications of an infectious process prior to JDM onset were found in 55/78 (71%) patients and were further evaluated for evidence of infection temporally associated with symptom onset. Features suggestive of infection prior to JDM symptom onset were found in 40/55 [probable (30/40) or possible (10/40)]. Most children with probable infections had respiratory illnesses [24/30 (80%)]. Fewer patients than expected had disease onset during summer months. The presence of an infection at onset was not found to be associated with differences in characteristics at diagnosis or disease outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of JDM patients have a clinical history consistent with an infection prior to onset. Newly diagnosed patients should undergo a full infectious disease assessment as part of their initial work-up; specific attention should be given to respiratory infections.

Hypertrophy signaling during peripartum cardiac remodeling.

UNLABELLED: Molecular signaling pathways that regulate peripartum cardiac remodeling are not well understood. Our objectives were to study the role of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs), protein kinase B (Akt), and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) in mediating pregnancy and postpartum (PP) cardiac remodeling. METHODS: Adult female Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into nonpregnant (n = 5), 18 days pregnant (n = 5), 0 days PP (n = 7), and 14 days PP (n = 8). Rats underwent echocardiography under sedation to measure left ventricle (LV) size and function, and Western blots were performed to measure myocardial protein expression of MAPKs (p38, JNK, ERK), Akt, and eNOS. RESULTS: 1) During pregnancy, there was an increase in LV mass (0.62 +/- 0.03 to 1.1 +/- 0.04 g, P < 0.001), mass/volume ratio (0.7 +/- 0.02 to 1.28 +/- 0.02 g/ml, P < 0.0001), and ejection fraction (EF) (64 +/- 3 to 74 +/- 2%). Whereas LV mass and mass/volume ratio returned to prepregnancy values in the PP period, EF remained below normal range (53 +/- 3%, P < 0.05). 2) The expression of anti-hypertrophic factors (p38, JNK, Akt) decreased during pregnancy and normalized PP, except JNK, which increased to higher than normal levels. eNOS also increased to higher than baseline levels PP. 3) Activation of p38 and JNK was directly correlated with lower LV mass/volume ratio (r = -0.81 and -0.71, respectively; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Pregnancy is associated with physiological cardiac hypertrophy. There is rapid reversal of hypertrophy in the PP period while recovery of cardiac function is delayed, possibly related to PP upregulation of JNK. A dysregulation of MAPK signaling may be an important determinant of PP cardiac dysfunction.