The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position. DESIGN: We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: 19 742 respondents aged 2 and over. RESULTS: In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income. CONCLUSIONS: Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

Ascertaining the Francophone population in Ontario: validating the language variable in health data.

BACKGROUND: Language barriers can impact health care and outcomes. Valid and reliable language data is central to studying health inequalities in linguistic minorities. In Canada, language variables are available in administrative health databases; however, the validity of these variables has not been studied. This study assessed concordance between language variables from administrative health databases and language variables from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) to identify Francophones in Ontario. METHODS: An Ontario combined sample of CCHS cycles from 2000 to 2012 (from participants who consented to link their data) was individually linked to three administrative databases (home care, long-term care [LTC], and mental health admissions). In total, 27,111 respondents had at least one encounter in one of the three databases. Language spoken at home (LOSH) and first official language spoken (FOLS) from CCHS were used as reference standards to assess their concordance with the language variables in administrative health databases, using the Cohen kappa, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV). RESULTS: Language variables from home care and LTC databases had the highest agreement with LOSH (kappa = 0.76 [95%CI, 0.735-0.793] and 0.75 [95%CI, 0.70-0.80], respectively) and FOLS (kappa = 0.66 for both). Sensitivity was higher with LOSH as the reference standard (75.5% [95%CI, 71.6-79.0] and 74.2% [95%CI, 67.3-80.1] for home care and LTC, respectively). With FOLS as the reference standard, the language variables in both data sources had modest sensitivity (53.1% [95%CI, 49.8-56.4] and 54.1% [95%CI, 48.3-59.7] in home care and LTC, respectively) but very high specificity (99.8% [95%CI, 99.7-99.9] and 99.6% [95%CI, 99.4-99.8]) and predictive values. The language variable from mental health admissions had poor agreement with all language variables in the CCHS. CONCLUSIONS: Language variables in home care and LTC health databases were most consistent with the language often spoken at home. Studies using language variables from administrative data can use the sensitivity and specificity reported from this study to gauge the level of mis-ascertainment error and the resulting bias.

A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).

INTRODUCTION: Avoidable hospitalizations are considered preventable given effective and timely primary care management and are an important indicator of health system performance. The ability to predict avoidable hospitalizations at the population level represents a significant advantage for health system decision-makers that could facilitate proactive intervention for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The aim of this study is to develop and validate the Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Tool (AvHPoRT) that will predict the 5-year risk of first avoidable hospitalization for seven ACSCs using self-reported, routinely collected population health survey data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The derivation cohort will consist of respondents to the first 3 cycles (2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) who are 18-74 years of age at survey administration and a hold-out data set will be used for external validation. Outcome information on avoidable hospitalizations for 5 years following the CCHS interview will be assessed through data linkage to the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000-2017/2018) for an estimated sample size of 394,600. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, self-perceived health measures, health behaviors, chronic conditions, and area-based measures. Sex-specific algorithms will be developed using Weibull accelerated failure time survival models. The model will be validated both using split set cross-validation and external temporal validation split using cycles 2000-2006 compared to 2007-2012. We will assess measures of overall predictive performance (Nagelkerke R2), calibration (calibration plots), and discrimination (Harrell's concordance statistic). Development of the model will be informed by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. The predictive algorithm and findings from this work will be disseminated at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed publications.

Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling to Examine Caregiver Distress and Its Contributors.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and test the direct and indirect associations between caregiver distress and its many contributing factors and covariates. DESIGN: Analysis using data from a national, cross-sectional survey of Canadian caregivers. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 6502 respondents of the 2012 General Social Survey-Caregiving and Care-receiving who self-identified as a caregiver. METHODS: We used exploratory structural equation modeling to achieve our aims. Based on literature review, we hypothesized a structural model of 5 caregiving factors that contribute to distress: caregiving burden, caregiving network and support, disruptions of family and social life, positive emotional experiences, and caregiving history. Survey items hypothesized to measure each latent factor were modeled using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). After establishing a well-fit EFA model, structural equation modeling was performed to examine the relationships between caregiving factors and caregiver distress while controlling for covariates such as caregiver's and care-recipient's sociodemographic characteristics and kinship. RESULTS: EFA established a well-fit model that represented caregiver distress and its 5 contributing factors as hypothesized. Although all 5 had significant effects on caregiver distress, disruptions of family and social life contributed the most (ß = 0.462), almost 3 times that of caregiving burden (ß = 0.162). Positive emotional experiences also substantially reduced distress (ß = -0.310). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Understanding the multifaceted nature of caregiver distress is crucial for developing effective strategies to support caregivers. In addition to reducing caregiving burden, having flexible resources and policies to minimize disruptions to caregivers' families (eg, flexible work policies; family-oriented education, training, and counseling) and enhance the positive aspects of caregiving may more effectively reduce distress.

Estimated mortality risk and use of palliative care services among home care clients during the last 6 months of life: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, only 15% of patients requiring palliative care receive such services in the year before death. We describe health care utilization patterns among home care users in their last 6 months of life to inform care planning for older people with varying mortality risks and evolving care needs as they decline. METHODS: Using population health administrative data from Ontario, we performed a retrospective cohort study involving home care clients aged 50 years and older who received at least 1 interRAI (Resident Assessment Instrument) Home Care assessment between April 2018 and September 2019. We report the proportion of clients who used acute care, long-term care, and palliative home care services within 6 months of their assessment, stratified by their predicted 6-month mortality risk using a prognostic tool called the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-life in their Communities Tool (RESPECT) and vital status. RESULTS: The cohort included 247 377 adults, 11.9% of whom died within 6 months of an assessment. Among decedents, 50.6% of those with a RESPECT-estimated median survival of fewer than 3 months received at least 1 nonphysician palliative home care visit before death. This proportion declined to 38.7% and 29.5% among decedents with an estimated median survival between 3 and 6 months and between 6 and 12 months, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Many older adults in Ontario do not receive any palliative home care before death. Prognostic tools such as RESPECT may improve recognition of reduced life expectancies and palliative care needs of individuals in their final years of life.

Real-time evaluation of signal accuracy in wastewater surveillance of pathogens with high rates of mutation.

Wastewater surveillance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) commonly applies reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) to quantify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater over time. In most applications worldwide, maximal sensitivity and specificity of RT-qPCR has been achieved, in part, by monitoring two or more genomic loci of SARS-CoV-2. In Ontario, Canada, the provincial Wastewater Surveillance Initiative reports the average copies of the CDC N1 and N2 loci normalized to the fecal biomarker pepper mild mottle virus. In November 2021, the emergence of the Omicron variant of concern, harboring a C28311T mutation within the CDC N1 probe region, challenged the accuracy of the consensus between the RT-qPCR measurements of the N1 and N2 loci of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we developed and applied a novel real-time dual loci quality assurance and control framework based on the relative difference between the loci measurements to the City of Ottawa dataset to identify a loss of sensitivity of the N1 assay in the period from July 10, 2022 to January 31, 2023. Further analysis via sequencing and allele-specific RT-qPCR revealed a high proportion of mutations C28312T and A28330G during the study period, both in the City of Ottawa and across the province. It is hypothesized that nucleotide mutations in the probe region, especially A28330G, led to inefficient annealing, resulting in reduction in sensitivity and accuracy of the N1 assay. This study highlights the importance of implementing quality assurance and control criteria to continually evaluate, in near real-time, the accuracy of the signal produced in wastewater surveillance applications that rely on detection of pathogens whose genomes undergo high rates of mutation.

A comprehensive, open-source data model for wastewater-based epidemiology.

The recent SARS-COV-2 pandemic has sparked the adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a low-cost way to monitor the health of populations. In parallel, the pandemic has encouraged researchers to openly share their data to serve the public better and accelerate science. However, environmental surveillance data are highly dependent on context and are difficult to interpret meaningfully across sites. This paper presents the second iteration of the Public Health Environmental Surveillance Open Data Model (PHES-ODM), an open-source dictionary and set of data tools to enhance the interoperability of environmental surveillance data and enable the storage of contextual (meta)data. The data model describes how to store environmental surveillance program data, metadata about measurements taken on various specimens (water, air, surfaces, sites, populations) and data about measurement protocols. The model provides software tools that support the collection and use of PHES-ODM formatted data, including performing PCR calculations and data validation, recording data into input templates, generating wide tables for analysis, and producing SQL database definitions. Fully open-source and already adopted by institutions in Canada, the European Union, and other countries, the PHES-ODM provides a path forward for creating robust, interoperable, open datasets for environmental public health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 and beyond.

Development and Evaluation of the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC) for Personalized Assessment and Feedback.

This study aimed to develop and validate a diet assessment screener - the Dietary Pattern Calculator (DiPaC). A scoping review identified currently available short diet quality assessment tools. Twenty-one articles covering 19 unique tools were included. The current tools mainly focused on individual nutrients or food groups or were developed for a specific population, and few ascertained overall dietary patterns. The 24-hour dietary recalls from the nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)-Nutrition 2015 (n = 13,958) were used to derive and validate a personalized dietary pattern informed by the scoping review using weighted partial least squares. The dominant dietary pattern in CCHS-Nutrition 2015 was characterized by high consumption of fast foods, carbonated drinks, and salty snacks and low consumption of whole fruits, orange vegetables, other vegetables and juices, whole grains, dark green vegetables, legumes, and soy. The dietary pattern assessment was used to create and evaluate DiPaC following an agile and user-centred research and development approach. DiPaC, which demonstrated high validity and intermediate reliability (internal consistency = 0.47-0.51), is publicly available at https://www.projectbiglife.ca/. DiPaC can be used by the public, clinicians, and researchers for quick and robust assessment of diet quality, providing immediate feedback with the advantage of being easy to implement.

Pandemic Effect on Healthcare Use and Death in Adults with Epilepsy: A Population Study.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a population-based study using Ontario health administrative data to describe trends in healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first pandemic year (March 2020-March 2021) compared to historical data (2016-2019). We also investigated if changes in outpatient visits and diagnostic testing during the first pandemic year were associated with increased risk for hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, or death. METHODS: Projected monthly visit rates (per 100,000 people) for outpatient visits, electroencephalography, magnetic resonance, computed tomography, all-cause ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality were calculated based on historical data by fitting monthly time series autoregressive integrated moving-average models. Two-way interactions were calculated using Quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS: In adults with epilepsy during the first quarter of the pandemic, we demonstrated a reduction in all-cause outpatient visits, diagnostic testing, ED visits and hospitalizations, and a temporary increase in mortality (observed rates of 355.8 vs projected 308.8, 95% CI: 276.3-345.1). By the end of the year, outpatient visits increased (85,535.4 vs 76,620.6, 95% CI: 71,546.9-82,059.4), and most of the diagnostic test rates returned to the projected. The increase in the rate of all-cause mortality during the pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic, was greater during months with the lower frequency of diagnostic tests than months with higher frequency (interaction p-values <.0001). CONCLUSION: We described the impact of the pandemic on healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first year. We demonstrated that access to relevant diagnostic testing is likely important for this population while planning restrictions on non-urgent health services.

Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among linguistic groups of patients receiving home care in Ontario: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have demonstrated the negative impact of language barriers on access, quality, and safety of healthcare, which can lead to health disparities in linguistic minorities. As the population ages, those with multiple chronic diseases will require increasing levels of home care and long-term services. This study described the levels of multimorbidity among recipients of home care in Ontario, Canada by linguistic group. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort of 510,685 adults receiving home care between April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2018, in Ontario, Canada. We estimated and compared prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity (2 or more chronic diseases) across linguistic groups (Francophones, Anglophones, Allophones). The most common combinations and clustering of chronic diseases were examined. Logistic regression models were used to explore the main predictors of 'severe' multimorbidity (defined as the presence of five or more chronic diseases). RESULTS: The proportion of home care recipients with multimorbidity and severe multimorbidity was 92% and 44%, respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity was slightly higher among Allophones (93.6%) than among Anglophones (91.8%) and Francophones (92.4%). However, Francophones had higher rates of cardiovascular and respiratory disease (64.9%) when compared to Anglophones (60.2%) and Allophones (61.5%), while Anglophones had higher rates of cancer (34.2%) when compared to Francophones (25.2%) and Allophones (24.3%). Relative to Anglophones, Allophones were more likely to have severe multimorbidity (adjusted OR = 1.04, [95% CI: 1.02-1.06]). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity among Ontarians receiving home care services is high; especially for whose primary language is a language other than English or French (i.e., Allophones). Understanding differences in the prevalence and characteristics of multimorbidity across linguistic groups will help tailor healthcare services to the unique needs of patients living in minority linguistic situations.

Nurse practitioner and physician end-of-life home visits and end-of-life outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: Physicians and nurse practitioners (NPs) play critical roles in supporting palliative and end-of-life care in the community. We examined healthcare outcomes among patients who received home visits from physicians and NPs in the 90 days before death. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked data of adult home care users in Ontario, Canada, who died between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2019. Healthcare outcomes included medications for pain and symptom management, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalisations and a community-based death. We compared the characteristics of and outcomes in decedents who received a home visit from an NP, physician and both to those who did not receive a home visit. RESULTS: Half (56.9%) of adult decedents in Ontario did not receive a home visit from a provider in the last 90 days of life; 34.5% received at least one visit from a physician, 3.8% from an NP and 4.9% from both. Compared with those without any visits, having at least one home visit reduced the odds of hospitalisation and ED visits, and increased the odds of receiving medications for pain and symptom management and achieving a community-based death. Observed effects were larger in patients who received at least one visit from both. CONCLUSIONS: Beyond home care, receiving home visits from primary care providers near the end of life may be associated with better outcomes that are aligned with patients' preferences-emphasising the importance of NPs and physicians' role in supporting people near the end of life.

Cannabis-Involved Traffic Injury Emergency Department Visits After Cannabis Legalization and Commercialization.

Importance: The impact of nonmedical cannabis legalization on traffic injuries and cannabis involvement in traffic injuries is unclear. Objective: To examine changes in the number and characteristics of cannabis-involved traffic injury emergency department (ED) visits from before to after legalization and subsequent commercialization (ie, increased retail store and product availability) of cannabis in Ontario, Canada. Design, Setting, and Participants: This repeated cross-sectional study examined changes in cannabis- and alcohol-involved traffic injury ED visits in Ontario, Canada, during 3 time periods: prelegalization (January 2010-September 2018), legalization with product and retail store restrictions (October 2018-February 2020), and commercialization with new products and expanded number of stores, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-December 2021). All individuals aged 16 years and older eligible for Ontario's Universal Health Coverage were included. Season- and time-adjusted quasi-Poisson models were used to generate rate ratios with 95% CIs. Data were analyzed from March to April 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly counts of cannabis-involved ED visits for traffic injury. Results: There were 947 604 traffic injury ED visits, of which 426 (0.04%) had documented cannabis involvement and 7564 (0.8%) had documented alcohol involvement. Of the 418 individuals with documented cannabis involvement, 330 (78.9%) were male, 109 (25.6%) were aged 16 to 21 years (mean [SD] age at visit, 30.6 [12.0] years), and 113 (27.0%) had an ED visit or hospitalization for substance use in the 2 years before their traffic injury ED visit. Annual rates of cannabis-involved traffic injury ED visits increased 475.3% over the study period (0.18 visits per 1000 total motor vehicle collisions in 2010 to 1.01 in 2021). Over the same period, alcohol-involved traffic injury ED visits increased by 9.4% (8.03 in 2010 to 8.79 per 1000 traffic injury ED visits in 2021). Legalization with restrictions was associated with a 94% increase in the quarterly rate of cannabis involvement in traffic injury ED visits relative to prelegalization (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.37-2.75). Commercialization/COVID-19 was associated with a greater increase of 223% in rates (aRR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.42-4.33). After adjusting for time trends before legalization, only commercialization/COVID-19 was associated with increased rates. Male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.38; 95% CI, 2.66-4.29), living in the lowest-income neighborhood (aOR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.39-2.67), being aged 19 to 21 years (aOR, 4.67; 95% CI, 3.27-6.67), and having a prior cannabis-related ED visit (aOR, 8.03; 95% CI, 5.85-11.02) were all positively associated with cannabis involvement during a traffic injury ED visit. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found large increases in cannabis involvement in ED visits for traffic injury over time, which may have accelerated following nonmedical cannabis commercialization. Although the frequency of visits was rare, they may reflect broader changes in cannabis-impaired driving. Greater prevention efforts, including targeted education and policy measures, in regions with legal cannabis are indicated.

Physician home visits to rostered patients during their last year of life: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Physician home visits are associated with better health outcomes, yet most patients near the end of life never receive such a visit. Our objectives were to describe the receipt of physician home visits during the last year of life after a referral to home care - an indication that the patient can no longer live independently - and to measure associations between patient characteristics and receipt of a home visit. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked population-based health administrative databases housed at ICES. We identified adult (aged ≥ 18 yr) decedents in Ontario who died between Mar. 31, 2013, and Mar. 31, 2018, who were receiving primary care and were referred to publicly funded home care services. We described the provision of physician home visits, office visits and telephone management. We used multinomial logistic regression to calculate the odds of receiving home visits from a rostered primary care physician, controlling for referral during the last year of life, age, sex, income quintile, rurality, recent immigrant status, referral by rostered physician, referral during hospital stay, number of chronic conditions and disease trajectory based on the cause of death. RESULTS: Of the 58 753 decedents referred in their last year of life, 3125 (5.3%) received a home visit from their family physician. Patient characteristics associated with higher odds of receiving home visits compared to office-based or telephone-based care were being female (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-1.35), being 85 years of age or older (adjusted OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.80-3.26) and living in a rural area (adjusted OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.18). Increased odds were associated with home care referrals by the patient's primary care physician (adjusted OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.39-1.58) and referrals occurring during a hospital stay (adjusted OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.13-1.28). INTERPRETATION: A small proportion of patients near the end of life received home-based physician care, and patient characteristics did not explain the low visit rates. Future work on system- and provider-level factors may be critical to improve access to home-based end-of-life primary care.

An exploration of the relationship between wastewater viral signals and COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ottawa, Canada.

Monitoring of viral signal in wastewater is considered a useful tool for monitoring the burden of COVID-19, especially during times of limited availability in testing. Studies have shown that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals and the increases in wastewater viral signals can provide an early warning for increasing hospital admissions. The association is likely nonlinear and time-varying. This project employs a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) (Gasparrini et al., 2010) to study the nonlinear exposure-response delayed association of the COVID-19 hospitalizations and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral signals using relevant data from Ottawa, Canada. We consider up to a 15-day time lag from the average of SARS-CoV N1 and N2 gene concentrations to COVID-19 hospitalizations. The expected reduction in hospitalization is adjusted for vaccination efforts. A correlation analysis of the data verifies that COVID-19 hospitalizations are highly correlated with wastewater viral signals with a time-varying relationship. Our DLNM based analysis yields a reasonable estimate of COVID-19 hospitalizations and enhances our understanding of the association of COVID-19 hospitalizations with wastewater viral signals.

Reducing touching eyes, nose and mouth ('T-zone') to reduce the spread of infectious disease: A prospective study of motivational, volitional and non-reflective predictors.

BACKGROUND: The route into the body for many pathogens is through the eyes, nose and mouth (i.e., the 'T-zone') via inhalation or fomite-based transfer during face touching. It is important to understand factors that are associated with touching the T-zone to inform preventive strategies. PURPOSE: To identify theory-informed predictors of intention to reduce facial 'T-zone' touching and self-reported 'T-zone' touching. METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative prospective questionnaire study of Canadians. Respondents were randomized to answer questions about touching their eyes, nose, or mouth with a questionnaire assessing 11 factors from an augmented Health Action Process Approach at baseline: intention, outcome expectancies, risk perception, individual severity, self-efficacy, action planning, coping planning, social support, automaticity, goal facilitation and stability of context. At 2-week follow-up, we assessed HAPA-based indicators of self-regulatory activities (awareness of standards, effort, self-monitoring) and self-reported behaviour (primary dependent variable). RESULTS: Of 656 Canadian adults recruited, 569 responded to follow-up (87% response rate). Across all areas of the 'T-zone', outcome expectancy was the strongest predictor of intention to reduce facial 'T-zone' touching, while self-efficacy was a significant predictor for only the eyes and mouth. Automaticity was the strongest predictor of behaviour at the 2-week follow-up. No sociodemographic or psychological factors predicted behaviour, with the exception of self-efficacy, which negatively predicted eye touching. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that focusing on reflective processes may increase intention to reduce 'T-zone' touching, while reducing actual 'T-zone' touching may require strategies that address the automatic nature of this behaviour.

A Health Survey-Based Prediction Equation for Incident CKD.

BACKGROUND: Prediction tools that incorporate self-reported health information could increase CKD awareness, identify modifiable lifestyle risk factors, and prevent disease. We developed and validated a survey-based prediction equation to identify individuals at risk for incident CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2), with and without a baseline eGFR. METHODS: A cohort of adults with an eGFR ≥70 ml/min per 1.73 m2 from Ontario, Canada, who completed a comprehensive general population health survey between 2000 and 2015 were included (n=22,200). Prediction equations included demographics (age, sex), comorbidities, lifestyle factors, diet, and mood. Models with and without baseline eGFR were derived and externally validated in the UK Biobank (n=15,522). New-onset CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) with ≤8 years of follow-up was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Among Ontario individuals (mean age, 55 years; 58% women; baseline eGFR, 95 (SD 15) ml/min per 1.73 m2), new-onset CKD occurred in 1981 (9%) during a median follow-up time of 4.2 years. The final models included lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity) and comorbid illnesses (diabetes, hypertension, cancer). The model was discriminating in individuals with and without a baseline eGFR measure (5-year c-statistic with baseline eGFR: 83.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 82.2 to 84.9; without: 81.0, 95% CI, 79.8 to 82.4) and well calibrated. In external validation, the 5-year c-statistic was 78.1 (95% CI, 74.2 to 82.0) and 66.0 (95% CI, 61.6 to 70.4), with and without baseline eGFR, respectively, and maintained calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported lifestyle and health behavior information from health surveys may aid in predicting incident CKD. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast.aspx?p=CJASN&e=2023_01_10_CJN05650522.mp3.

Mortality and Life Expectancy Lost in Canada Attributable to Dietary Patterns: Evidence From Canadian National Nutrition Survey Linked to Routinely Collected Health Administrative Databases.

Using 5 diet quality indexes, we estimated the mortality and life expectancy lost, at the national level, attributable to poor dietary patterns, which had previously been largely unknown. We used the Canadian Community Health Survey 2004, linked to vital statistics (n = 16,212 adults; representing n = 22,898,880). After a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 1,722 deaths were recorded. Population attributable fractions were calculated to estimate the mortality burden of poor dietary patterns (Dietary Guidelines for Americans Adherence Index 2015, Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, Healthy Eating Index, Alternative Healthy Eating Index, and Mediterranean Style Dietary Pattern Score). Better diet quality was associated with a 32%-51% and 21%-43% reduction in all-cause mortality among adults aged 45-80 years and ≥20 years, respectively. Projected life expectancy at 45 years was longer for Canadians adhering to a healthy dietary pattern (average of 5.2-8.0 years (men) and 1.6-4.1 (women)). At the population level, 26.5%-38.9% (men) and 8.9%-22.9% (women) of deaths were attributable to poor dietary patterns. Survival benefit was greater for individuals with higher scores on all diet indexes, even with relatively small intake differences. The large attributable burden was likely from assessing overall dietary patterns instead of a limited range of foods and nutrients.

Deep ROC Analysis and AUC as Balanced Average Accuracy, for Improved Classifier Selection, Audit and Explanation.

Optimal performance is desired for decision-making in any field with binary classifiers and diagnostic tests, however common performance measures lack depth in information. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the area under the precision recall curve are too general because they evaluate all decision thresholds including unrealistic ones. Conversely, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and the F1 score are too specific-they are measured at a single threshold that is optimal for some instances, but not others, which is not equitable. In between both approaches, we propose deep ROC analysis to measure performance in multiple groups of predicted risk (like calibration), or groups of true positive rate or false positive rate. In each group, we measure the group AUC (properly), normalized group AUC, and averages of: sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and likelihood ratio positive and negative. The measurements can be compared between groups, to whole measures, to point measures and between models. We also provide a new interpretation of AUC in whole or part, as balanced average accuracy, relevant to individuals instead of pairs. We evaluate models in three case studies using our method and Python toolkit and confirm its utility.

Sodium, added sugar and saturated fat intake in relation to mortality and CVD events in adults: Canadian National Nutrition Survey linked with vital statistics and health administrative databases.

This study aimed to determine whether higher intakes of Na, added sugars and saturated fat are prospectively associated with all-cause mortality and CVD incidence and mortality in a diverse population. The nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition 2004 was linked with the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database and the Discharge Abstract Database (2004-2011). Outcomes were all-cause mortality and CVD incidence and mortality. There were 1722 mortality cases within 115 566 person-years of follow-up (median (interquartile range) of 7·48 (7·22-7·70) years). There was no statistically significant association between Na density or energy from saturated fat and all-cause mortality or CVD events for all models investigated. The association of usual percentage of energy from added sugars and all-cause mortality was significant in the base model with participants consuming 11·47 % of energy from added sugars having 1·34 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·77) times higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with those consuming 4·17 % of energy from added sugars. Overall, our results did not find statistically significant associations between the three nutrients and risk of all-cause mortality or CVD events at the population level in Canada. Large-scale linked national nutrition datasets may not have the discrimination to identify prospective impacts of nutrients on health measures.

Trends in outpatient and inpatient visits for separate ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: a province-based study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic led to global disruptions in non-urgent health services, affecting health outcomes of individuals with ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). Methods: We conducted a province-based study using Ontario health administrative data (Canada) to determine trends in outpatient visits and hospitalization rates (per 100,000 people) in the general adult population for seven ACSCs during the first pandemic year (March 2020-March 2021) compared to previous years (2016-2019), and how disruption in outpatient visits related to acute care use. ACSCs considered were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, angina, congestive heart failure (CHF), hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy. We used time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models to compare observed versus projected rates. Results: Following an initial reduction (March-May 2020) in all types of visits, primary care outpatient visits (combined in-person and virtual) returned to pre-pandemic levels for asthma, angina, hypertension, and diabetes, remained below pre-pandemic levels for COPD, and rose above pre-pandemic levels for CHF (104.8 vs. 96.4, 95% CI: 89.4-104.0) and epilepsy (29.6 vs. 24.7, 95% CI: 22.1-27.5) by the end of the first pandemic year. Specialty visits returned to pre-pandemic levels for COPD, angina, CHF, hypertension, and diabetes, but remained above pre-pandemic levels for asthma (95.4 vs. 79.5, 95% CI: 70.7-89.5) and epilepsy (53.3 vs. 45.6, 95% CI: 41.2-50.5), by the end of the year. Virtual visit rates increased for all ACSCs. Among ACSCs, reductions in hospitalizations were most pronounced for COPD and asthma. CHF-related hospitalizations also decreased, albeit to a lesser extent. For angina, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy, hospitalization rates reduced initially, but returned to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. Conclusion: This study demonstrated variation in outpatient visit trends for different ACSCs in the first pandemic year. No outpatient visit trends resulted in increased hospitalizations for any ACSC; however, reductions in rates of asthma, COPD, and CHF hospitalizations persisted.