Machine Learning for Prediction of Stable Warfarin Dose in US Latinos and Latin Americans.

Populations used to create warfarin dose prediction algorithms largely lacked participants reporting Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. While previous research suggests nonlinear modeling improves warfarin dose prediction, this research has mainly focused on populations with primarily European ancestry. We compare the accuracy of stable warfarin dose prediction using linear and nonlinear machine learning models in a large cohort enriched for US Latinos and Latin Americans (ULLA). Each model was tested using the same variables as published by the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC) and using an expanded set of variables including ethnicity and warfarin indication. We utilized a multiple linear regression model and three nonlinear regression models: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, and Support Vector Regression. We compared each model's ability to predict stable warfarin dose within 20% of actual stable dose, confirming trained models in a 30% testing dataset with 100 rounds of resampling. In all patients (n = 7,030), inclusion of additional predictor variables led to a small but significant improvement in prediction of dose relative to the IWPC algorithm (47.8 versus 46.7% in IWPC, p = 1.43 × 10-15). Nonlinear models using IWPC variables did not significantly improve prediction of dose over the linear IWPC algorithm. In ULLA patients alone (n = 1,734), IWPC performed similarly to all other linear and nonlinear pharmacogenetic algorithms. Our results reinforce the validity of IWPC in a large, ethnically diverse population and suggest that additional variables that capture warfarin dose variability may improve warfarin dose prediction algorithms.

Evaluation of the Long-Term Impact on Quality After the End of Pharmacist-Driven Warfarin Therapy Management in Patients With Poor Quality of Anticoagulation Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Warfarin is the most common oral anticoagulant drug, especially in low-income and emerging countries, because of the high cost of direct oral anticoagulant (DOACs), or when warfarin is the only proven therapy (mechanical prosthetic valve and kidney dysfunction). The quality of warfarin therapy is directly associated with dose management. Evidence shows that pharmaceutical care achieves a better quality of therapy with warfarin. However, there are no studies showing this intervention in a specific patient group with poor quality of anticoagulation in a long period after the end of the follow-up by a pharmacist. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate whether the quality of warfarin therapy driven by a pharmacist remains stable in the long term after the end of follow up with a pharmacist, in AF patients with poor quality of anticoagulation. METHODS: This is a prospective study, which evaluated about 2,620 patients and selected 262 patients with AF and poor quality of anticoagulation therapy with warfarin (TTR<50% - based on the last three values of international normalized ratio). Pharmacist-driven therapy management was performed up to 12 weeks. Data from patients were evaluated 1 year after the end of the follow-up with pharmacist. RESULTS: Comparison between mean TTR after 12 weeks of pharmaceutical care (54.1%) and mean TTR one year after the end of the pharmaceutical care (56.5%; p=0.081) did not achieve statistical difference, demonstrating that the increment of quality due to intervention of 12 weeks was maintained for 1 year after intervention. CONCLUSION: The long-term impact of pharmaceutical care was beneficial for patients with AF and poor quality of warfarin anticoagulation. This design might be an important strategy to treat a subgroup of patients without proven effectiveness of warfarin.

Pharmaceutical Care Increases Time in Therapeutic Range of Patients With Poor Quality of Anticoagulation With Warfarin.

Thromboembolic events are associated with high mortality and morbidity indexes. In this context, warfarin is the most widely prescribed oral anticoagulant agent for preventing and treating these events. This medication has a narrow therapeutic range and, consequently, patients usually have difficulty in achieving and maintaining stable target therapeutics. Some studies on the literature about oral anticoagulant management showed that pharmacists could improve the efficiency of anticoagulant therapy. However, the majority of these studies included general patients retrospectively. The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate a pharmacist's warfarin management in patients with poor quality of anticoagulation therapy (Time in the Therapeutic Range- TTR < 50%). We included 268 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and without stable dose of warfarin (TTR < 50%, based on the last three values of International Normalized Ratio-INR). We followed them up for 12 weeks, INR values were evaluated and, when necessary, the dose adjustments were performed. During the first four visits, patient's INR was measured every 7 days. Then, if INR was within the target therapeutic range (INR: 2-3), the patient was asked to return in 30 days. However, if INR was out the therapeutic target, the patient was asked to return in 7 days. Adherence evaluation was measured through questionnaires and by counting the pills taken. Comparison between basal TTR (which was calculated based on the three last INR values before prospective phase) and TTR of 4 weeks (calculated by considering the INR tests from visits 0 to 4, in the prospective phase of the study) and basal TTR and TTR of 12 weeks (calculated based on the INR tests from visits 0 to 12, in the prospective phase of the study) revealed significant statistical differences (0.144 ± 0.010 vs. 0.382 ± 0.016; and 0.144 ± 0.010 vs. 0.543 ± 0.014, p < 0.001, respectively). We also observed that the mean TTR of 1 year before (retrospective phase) was lower than TTR value after 12 weeks of pharmacist-driven treatment (prospective phase) (0.320 ± 0.015; 0.540 ± 0.015, p < 0.001). In conclusion, pharmaceutical care was able to improve TTR values in patients with AF and poor quality of anticoagulation with warfarin.

Evaluation of a pharmacogenetic-based warfarin dosing algorithm in patients with low time in therapeutic range - study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Time in therapeutic range (TTR) is a measurement of quality of warfarin therapy and lower TTR values (<50%) are associated with greater risk of thromboembolic and bleeding events. Recently, we developed a pharmacogenetic-based warfarin dosing algorithm specifically calibrated for a Brazilian patient sample. The aims of this study are: to evaluate the impact of a genetic-based algorithm, compared to traditional anticoagulation, in the time to achieve the therapeutic target and in TTR percentage; and to assess the cost-effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin dosing in a specific cohort of patients with low TTR (<50%) from a tertiary cardiovascular hospital. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a randomized controlled trial in patients (n = 300) with atrial fibrillation with TTR < 50%, based on the last three INR values. At the first consultation, patients will be randomized into two groups: TA group (traditional anticoagulation) and PA group (pharmacogenetic anticoagulation). For the first group, the physician will adjust the dose according to current INR value and, for the second group, a pharmacogenetic algorithm will be used. At the second, third, fourth and fifth consultations (with an interval of 7 days each) INR will be measured and, if necessary, the dose will be adjusted based on guidelines. Afterwards, patients who are INR stable will begin measuring their INR in 30 day intervals; if the patient's INR is not stable, the patient will return in 7 days for a new measurement of the INR. Outcomes measures will include the time to achieve the therapeutic target and the percentage of TTR at 4 and 12 weeks. In addition, as a secondary end-point, pharmacoeconomic analysis will be carried out. Ethical approval was granted by the Ethics Committee for Medical Research on Human Beings of the Clinical Hospital of the University of São Paulo Medical School. DISCUSSION: This randomized study will include patients with low TTR and it will evaluate whether a population-specific genetic algorithm might be more effective than traditional anticoagulation for a selected group of poorly anticoagulated patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02592980 . Registered on 29 October 2015.

Age is associated with time in therapeutic range for warfarin therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Warfarin is the most prescribed oral anticoagulant used for preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. Time in the therapeutic range (TTR) has been accepted as the best method to evaluate the quality of warfarin therapy. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of variables on the time in the therapeutic range for warfarin therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation from a referral cardiovascular hospital. METHODS: This retrospective study included 443 patients were included (190 patients with age < 65 years and 253 patients with age ≥65 years) from 2011 to 2014 and TTR was computed according to Rosendaal's method. RESULTS: Patients with age ≥65 years had higher TTR value (67±22%) compared with patients with < 65 years (60±24%) (p = 0.004). In a linear regression model, only age ≥65 years emerged as a significant predictor of greater TTR values. In multivariate logistic regression model, the variable age ≥65 years was associated with higher OR for having a TTR higher than the median value (OR = 2.17, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We suggest that the age influenced TTR through greater drug adherence. Strategies for increasing drug adherence might improve quality of warfarin anticoagulation.

Development of a pharmacogenetic-based warfarin dosing algorithm and its performance in Brazilian patients: highlighting the importance of population-specific calibration.

BACKGROUND: The main aims of the present study were to develop a pharmacogenetic-based warfarin dosing algorithm and to validate it in a highly admixed population. MATERIALS & METHODS: We included two patient cohorts treated with warfarin (first cohort, n = 832; and second cohort, n = 133). RESULTS: Our algorithm achieved a determination coefficient of 40% including the variables age, gender, weight, height, self-declared race, amiodarone use, enzyme inducers use, VKORC1 genotypes and predicted phenotypes according to CYP2C9 polymorphisms. CONCLUSION: Data suggest that our developed algorithm is more accurate than the IWPC algorithm when the application is focused on patients from the Brazilian population. Population-specific derivation and/or calibration of warfarin dosing algorithms may lead to improved performance compared with general use dosing algorithms currently available. Original submitted 26 November 2014; Revision submitted 9 April 2015.