Spatial Distribution of Calcium Sparks Determines Their Ability to Induce Afterdepolarizations in Human Atrial Myocytes.

Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of calcium sparks showed a preferential increase in sparks near the sarcolemma in atrial myocytes from patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), linked to higher ryanodine receptor (RyR2) phosphorylation at s2808 and lower calsequestrin-2 levels. Mathematical modeling, incorporating modulation of RyR2 gating, showed that only the observed combinations of RyR2 phosphorylation and calsequestrin-2 levels can account for the spatio-temporal distribution of sparks in patients with and without AF. Furthermore, we demonstrate that preferential calcium release near the sarcolemma is key to a higher incidence and amplitude of afterdepolarizations in atrial myocytes from patients with AF.

Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach.

The current worldwide pandemic produced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the paradigm of mathematical epidemiology due to the high number of unknowns of this new disease. Thus, the empirical approach has emerged as a robust tool to analyze the actual situation carried by the countries and also allows us to predict the incoming scenarios. In this paper, we propose three empirical indexes to estimate the state of the pandemic. These indexes quantify both the propagation and the number of estimated cases, allowing us to accurately determine the real risk of a country. We have calculated these indexes' evolution for several European countries. Risk diagrams are introduced as a tool to visualize the evolution of a country and evaluate its current risk as a function of the number of contagious individuals and the empiric reproduction number. Risk diagrams at the regional level are useful to observe heterogeneity on COVID-19 penetration and spreading in some countries, which is essential during deconfinement processes. During the pandemic, there have been significant differences seen in countries reporting case criterion and detection capacity. Therefore, we have introduced estimations about the real number of infectious cases that allows us to have a broader view and to better estimate the risk. These diagrams and indexes have been successfully used for the monitoring of European countries and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Robust estimation of diagnostic rate and real incidence of COVID-19 for European policymakers.

Policymakers need clear, fast assessment of the real spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in each of their respective countries. Standard measures of the situation provided by the governments include reported positive cases and total deaths. While total deaths indicate immediately that countries like Italy and Spain had the worst situation as of mid-April, 2020, reported cases alone do not provide a complete picture of the situation. Different countries diagnose differently and present very distinctive reported case fatality ratios. Similar levels of reported incidence and mortality might hide a very different underlying pictures. Here we present a straightforward and robust estimation of the diagnostic rate in each European country. From that estimation we obtain a uniform, unbiased incidence of the epidemic. The method to obtain the diagnostic rate is transparent and empirical. The key assumption of the method is that the infection fatality ratio of COVID-19 in Europe is not strongly country-dependent. We show that this number is not expected to be biased due to demography nor to the way total deaths are reported. The estimation protocol is dynamic, and it has been yielding converging numbers for diagnostic rates in all European countries as from mid-April, 2020. Using this diagnostic rate, policy makers can obtain Effective Potential Growth updated every day, providing an unbiased assessment of the countries at greater risk of experiencing an uncontrolled situation. The method developed has been and will be used to track possible improvements in the diagnostic rate in European countries as the epidemic evolves.

Buffering and total calcium levels determine the presence of oscillatory regimes in cardiac cells.

Calcium oscillations and waves induce depolarization in cardiac cells which are believed to cause life-threathening arrhythimas. In this work, we study the conditions for the appearance of calcium oscillations in both a detailed subcellular model of calcium dynamics and a minimal model that takes into account just the minimal ingredients of the calcium toolkit. To avoid the effects of homeostatic changes and the interaction with the action potential we consider the somewhat artificial condition of a cell without pacing and with no calcium exchange with the extracellular medium. Both the full subcellular model and the minimal model present the same scenarios depending on the calcium load: two stationary states, one with closed ryanodine receptors (RyR) and most calcium in the cell stored in the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR), and another, with open RyRs and a depleted SR. In between, calcium oscillations may appear. The robustness of these oscillations is determined by the amount of calsequestrin (CSQ). The lack of this buffer in the SR enhances the appearance of oscillations. The minimal model allows us to relate the stability of the oscillating state to the nullcline structure of the system, and find that its range of existence is bounded by a homoclinic and a Hopf bifurcation, resulting in a sudden transition to the oscillatory regime as the cell calcium load is increased. Adding a small amount of noise to the RyR behavior increases the parameter region where oscillations appear and provides a gradual transition from the resting state to the oscillatory regime, as observed in the subcellular model and experimentally.

Influence of the tubular network on the characteristics of calcium transients in cardiac myocytes.

Transverse and axial tubules (TATS) are an essential ingredient of the excitation-contraction machinery that allow the effective coupling of L-type Calcium Channels (LCC) and ryanodine receptors (RyR2). They form a regular network in ventricular cells, while their presence in atrial myocytes is variable regionally and among animal species We have studied the effect of variations in the TAT network using a bidomain computational model of an atrial myocyte with variable density of tubules. At each z-line the t-tubule length is obtained from an exponential distribution, with a given mean penetration length. This gives rise to a distribution of t-tubules in the cell that is characterized by the fractional area (F.A.) occupied by the t-tubules. To obtain consistent results, we average over different realizations of the same mean penetration length. To this, in some simulations we add the effect of a network of axial tubules. Then we study global properties of calcium signaling, as well as regional heterogeneities and local properties of sparks and RyR2 openings. In agreement with recent experiments in detubulated ventricular and atrial cells, we find that detubulation reduces the calcium transient and synchronization in release. However, it does not affect sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) load, so the decrease in SR calcium release is due to regional differences in Ca2+ release, that is restricted to the cell periphery in detubulated cells. Despite the decrease in release, the release gain is larger in detubulated cells, due to recruitment of orphaned RyR2s, i.e, those that are not confronting a cluster of LCCs. This probably provides a safeguard mechanism, allowing physiological values to be maintained upon small changes in the t-tubule density. Finally, we do not find any relevant change in spark properties between tubulated and detubulated cells, suggesting that the differences found in experiments could be due to differential properties of the RyR2s in the membrane and in the t-tubules, not incorporated in the present model. This work will help understand the effect of detubulation, that has been shown to occur in disease conditions such as heart failure (HF) in ventricular cells, or atrial fibrillation (AF) in atrial cells.

Computational Model of Calcium Signaling in Cardiac Atrial Cells at the Submicron Scale.

In cardiac cells, calcium is the mediator of excitation-contraction coupling. Dysfunctions in calcium handling have been identified as the origin of some cardiac arrhythmias. In the particular case of atrial myocytes, recent available experimental data has found links between these dysfunctions and structural changes in the calcium handling machinery (ryanodine cluster size and distribution, t-tubular network, etc). To address this issue, we have developed a computational model of an atrial myocyte that takes into account the detailed intracellular structure. The homogenized macroscopic behavior is described with a two-concentration field model, using effective diffusion coefficients of calcium in the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) and in the cytoplasm. The model reproduces the right calcium transients and dependence with pacing frequency. Under basal conditions, the calcium rise is mostly restricted to the periphery of the cell, with a large concentration ratio between the periphery and the interior. We have then studied the dependence of the speed of the calcium wave on cytosolic and SR diffusion coefficients, finding an almost linear relation with the former, in agreement with a diffusive and fire mechanism of propagation, and little dependence on the latter. Finally, we have studied the effect of a change in RyR cluster microstructure. We find that, under resting conditions, the spark frequency decreases slightly with RyR cluster spatial dispersion, but markedly increases when the RyRs are distributed in clusters of larger size, stressing the importance of RyR cluster organization to understand atrial arrhythmias, as recent experimental results suggest (Macquaide et al., 2015).