Effectiveness and durability of mRNA-1273 BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine (mRNA-1273.222) against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 and XBB sublineages.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 sublineages continue to cause serious COVID-19 disease, but most individuals have not received any COVID-19 vaccine for >1 year. Assessment of long-term effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines against circulating sublineages is important to inform the potential need for vaccination with updated vaccines. In this test-negative study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, sequencing-confirmed BA.4/BA.5- or XBB-related SARS-CoV-2-positive cases (September 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023), were matched 1:3 to SARS-CoV-2-negative controls. We assessed mRNA-1273 bivalent relative (rVE) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) compared to ≥2 or 0 doses of original monovalent vaccine, respectively. The rVE analysis included 20,966 cases and 62,898 controls. rVE (95%CI) against BA.4/BA.5 at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 52.7% (46.9-57.8%) and 35.5% (-2.8-59.5%) for infection, and 59.3% (49.7-67.0%) and 33.2% (-28.2-68.0%) for Emergency Department/Urgent Care (ED/UC) encounters. For BA.4/BA.5-related hospitalizations, rVE was 71.3% (44.9-85.1%) and 52.0% (-1.2-77.3%) at 14-60 days and 61-120 days, respectively. rVE against XBB at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 48.8% (33.4-60.7%) and -3.9% (-18.1-11.3%) for infection, 70.7% (52.4-82.0%) and 15.7% (-6.0-33.2%) for ED/UC encounters, and 87.9% (43.8-97.4%) and 57.1% (17.0-77.8%) for hospitalization. VE and subgroup analyses (age, immunocompromised status, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) results were similar to rVE analyses. rVE of mRNA-1273 bivalent vaccine against BA.4/BA.5 and XBB infections, ED/UC encounters, and hospitalizations waned over time. Periodic revaccination with vaccines targeting emerging variants may be important in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Effectiveness of the live zoster vaccine during the 10 years following vaccination: real world cohort study using electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of live zoster vaccine during more than 10 years after vaccination; and to describe methods for ascertaining vaccine effectiveness in the context of waning. DESIGN: Real world cohort study using electronic health records. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated healthcare delivery system in the US, 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2018. POPULATION: More than 1.5 million people aged 50 years and older followed for almost 9.4 million person years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Vaccine effectiveness in preventing herpes zoster, postherpetic neuralgia, herpes zoster ophthalmicus, and admission to hospital for herpes zoster was assessed. Change in vaccine effectiveness by time since vaccination was examined using Cox regression with a calendar timeline. Time varying indicators were specified for each interval of time since vaccination (30 days to less than one year, one to less than two years, etc) and adjusted for covariates. RESULTS: Of 1 505 647 people, 507 444 (34%) were vaccinated with live zoster vaccine. Among 75 135 incident herpes zoster cases, 4982 (7%) developed postherpetic neuralgia, 4439 (6%) had herpes zoster ophthalmicus, and 556 (0.7%) were admitted to hospital for herpes zoster. For each outcome, vaccine effectiveness was highest in the first year after vaccination and decreased substantially over time. Against herpes zoster, vaccine effectiveness waned from 67% (95% confidence interval 65% to 69%) in the first year to 15% (5% to 24%) after 10 years. Against postherpetic neuralgia, vaccine effectiveness waned from 83% (78% to 87%) to 41% (17% to 59%) after 10 years. Against herpes zoster ophthalmicus, vaccine effectiveness waned from 71% (63% to 76%) to 29% (18% to 39%) during five to less than eight years. Against admission to hospital for herpes zoster, vaccine effectiveness waned from 90% (67% to 97%) to 53% (25% to 70%) during five to less than eight years. Across all follow-up time, overall vaccine effectiveness was 46% (45% to 47%) against herpes zoster, 62% (59% to 65%) against postherpetic neuralgia, 45% (40% to 49%) against herpes zoster ophthalmicus, and 66% (55% to 74%) against admission to hospital for herpes zoster. CONCLUSIONS: Live zoster vaccine was effective initially. Vaccine effectiveness waned substantially yet some protection remained 10 years after vaccination. After 10 years, protection was low against herpes zoster but higher against postherpetic neuralgia. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01600079; EU PAS register number EUPAS17502.

mRNA-1273 bivalent (original and Omicron) COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 outcomes in the United States.

The bivalent (original and Omicron BA.4/BA.5) mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine was authorized to offer broader protection against COVID-19. We conducted a matched cohort study to evaluate the effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in preventing hospitalization for COVID-19 (primary outcome) and medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospital death (secondary outcomes). Compared to individuals who did not receive bivalent mRNA vaccination but received ≥2 doses of any monovalent mRNA vaccine, the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against hospitalization for COVID-19 was 70.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0%-75.4%). rVE was consistent across subgroups and not modified by time since last monovalent dose or number of monovalent doses received. Protection was durable ≥3 months after the bivalent booster. rVE against SARS-CoV-2 infection requiring emergency department/urgent care and against COVID-19 hospital death was 55.0% (50.8%-58.8%) and 82.7% (63.7%-91.7%), respectively. The mRNA-1273 bivalent booster provides additional protection against hospitalization for COVID-19, medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 hospital death.

Measuring dengue illness intensity: Development and content validity of the dengue virus daily diary (DENV-DD).

BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral infection causing an estimated 50-60 million cases of febrile illness globally per year, exacting considerable disease burden. Few instruments exist to assess the patient illness experience, with most based on healthcare provider assessment, lacking standardization in timepoints and symptom assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the content validity of the novel 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)', designed to measure symptom intensity and disease burden within outpatient infant to adult populations. METHODS: The Dengue Illness Index Report Card was used as a foundation to create the DENV-DD, consisting of patient- and observer-reported outcome (PRO/ObsRO) instruments. In two South American dengue-endemic communities, qualitative combined concept elicitation and cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted among individuals and caregivers of children with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed dengue. Interviews were conducted across two rounds allowing DENV-DD modifications. A small-scale quantitative assessment of the DENV-DD was also conducted with data from an independent Dengue Human Infection Model (DHIM) to generate early evidence of feasibility of DENV-DD completion, instrument performance and insight into the sign/symptom trajectory over the course of illness. RESULTS: Forty-eight participants were interviewed (20 adults, 20 older children/adolescents with their caregivers, 8 caregivers of younger children). A wide spectrum of signs/symptoms lasting 3-15 days were reported with fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite, and body weakness each reported by > 70% participants. DENV-DD instructions, items and response scales were understood, and items were considered relevant across ages. DHIM data supported feasibility of DENV-DD completion. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate content validity of the DENV-DD (PRO/ObsRO instruments) in dengue-endemic populations. Psychometric and cultural validity studies are ongoing to support use of the DENV-DD in clinical studies.

Dengue is the most common viral infection transmitted to humans by mosquitos, and affects an estimated 50­60 million individuals globally per year. However, there are few resources for understanding and capturing the patient experience of dengue throughout illness. Most research studies are based on healthcare provider assessment, which lack consistency in terms of assessment time points and the signs/symptoms assessed. The 'Dengue Illness Index Report Card (DII-RC)' was used as a foundation to create the new 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)' to better capture the patient experience of symptom intensity and dengue disease burden for the duration of illness. Forty-eight individuals and caregivers of younger children from Peru and Ecuador who recently had symptomatic dengue were interviewed to understand the patient experience over the time of illness and to test whether the DENV-DD is understood by patients and caregivers and includes all relevant and important signs/symptoms and health-related quality of life impacts. Nine individuals with active dengue infection also completed the DENV-DD daily for 28-days as part of a clinical study. We found that > 70% of patients experienced fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite and body weakness. The DENV-DD instructions, questions and response option(s) were well understood, feasible to complete and the concepts assessed by the DENV-DD were relevant to the dengue experience. Our study adds to the understanding of the dengue illness experience and supports the DENV-DD for use in future dengue studies as an assessment of signs/symptoms throughout the duration of illness.

Incident autoimmune conditions among males receiving quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The potential for vaccines to induce autoimmunity has been the subject of considerable investigation and autoimmune induction remains a common focus for vaccine safety research. This study assessed the risk of new onset autoimmune conditions among males receiving the 4-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (4vHPV). METHODS: Within a US health insurance claims database, we formed a cohort of male 4vHPV vaccine recipients between 2009 and 2016, along with a propensity score matched cohort of males who did not receive the 4vHPV vaccine. The study outcome was new onset autoimmune conditions (20 separate conditions) within four categories (rheumatologic/hematologic, gastroenterologic, endocrinologic and neurologic/ophthalmalogic). Outcomes identified using diagnosis codes were adjudicated through medical record review. Incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) were estimated for the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups along with rate ratios (RRs). RESULTS: There were 65,606 males receiving at least one dose of 4vHPV vaccine, and 55,670 were matched to a comparator. The matched 4vHPV vaccine cohort provided 35 confirmed cases among 39,735 person-years, for an incidence rate of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.61-1.23), while the comparator cohort provided 47 confirmed cases among 58,215 person-years, an incidence rate of 0.81 (0.59-1.07), a RR of 1.09 (0.70-1.69). The RR within categories was 0.49 (0.10-2.42) for rheumatologic/hematologic, 1.26 (0.58-2.71) for gastroenterologic, 1.11 (0.61-2.02) for endocrinologic and 1.46 (0.21-10.40) for neurologic. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of autoimmune conditions among males receiving the 4vHPV vaccine was similar to that among unvaccinated males. These results are consistent with other studies that have assessed autoimmunity with the 4vHPV vaccine.

Sex disparities in the incidence of 21 cancer types: Quantification of the contribution of risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence is higher in men than in women at most shared anatomic sites for currently unknown reasons. The authors quantified the extent to which behaviors (smoking and alcohol use), anthropometrics (body mass index and height), lifestyles (physical activity, diet, medications), and medical history collectively explain the male predominance of risk at 21 shared cancer sites. METHODS: Prospective cohort analyses (n = 171,274 male and n = 122,826 female participants; age range, 50-71 years) in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study (1995-2011). Cancer-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate male-to-female hazard ratios (HRs). The degree to which risk factors explained the observed male-female risk disparity was quantified using the Peters-Belson method. RESULTS: There were 26,693 incident cancers (17,951 in men and 8742 in women). Incidence was significantly lower in men than in women only for thyroid and gallbladder cancers. At most other anatomic sites, the risks were higher in men than in women (adjusted HR range, 1.3-10.8), with the strongest increases for bladder cancer (HR, 3.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.93-3.79), gastric cardia cancer (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.26-5.37), larynx cancer (HR, 3.53; 95% CI, 2.46-5.06), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 10.80; 95% CI, 7.33-15.90). Risk factors explained a statistically significant (nonzero) proportion of the observed male excess for esophageal adenocarcinoma and cancers of liver, other biliary tract, bladder, skin, colon, rectum, and lung. However, only a modest proportion of the male excess was explained by risk factors (ranging from 50% for lung cancer to 11% for esophageal adenocarcinoma). CONCLUSIONS: Men have a higher risk of cancer than women at most shared anatomic sites. Such male predominance is largely unexplained by risk factors, underscoring a role for sex-related biologic factors.

Safety of 4-valent human papillomavirus vaccine in males: a large observational post-marketing study.

The 4-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine (4vHPV vaccine), Gardasil®, is indicated for the prevention of several HPV-related diseases. The objective was to assess the safety of 4vHPV vaccine administered to males as part of routine care. The study used a US health insurance claims database, and included males, age 9 to 26 years, who initiated 4vHPV between October 2009 and December 2016. General safety outcomes were identified using ICD diagnosis codes associated with emergency room visits and hospitalizations in the claims database in risk periods (Days 1-60 and Days 1-14 following vaccine administration) and self-comparison periods (Days 91-150 and 91-104 for the Days 1-60 and Days 1-14 analysis, respectively). Incidence rates (IRs) and relative rates (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated comparing the risk and self-comparison periods. In this study, 114,035 males initiated 4vHPV vaccine and received 202,737 doses. Using the 60-day time window, 5 outcomes had significantly elevated RRs after accounting for multiple comparisons: ear conditions (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.59); otitis media and related conditions (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.09-2.54); cellulitis and abscess of arm (RR 2.17, 95% CI 1.06-4.72); intracranial injury (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.50); and concussion (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59). A higher rate of allergic reactions was noted on the day of 4vHPV vaccine receipt compared to other vaccines (21.07 events per 10,000 doses, 95% CI 18.89-23.44 versus 11.44 per 10,000 doses, 95% CI 9.84-13.22). A higher incidence rate of VTE was observed following vaccination but this association was not significant (RR 2.17, 95% CI 0.35-22.74). The 4vHPV vaccine was associated with same-day allergic reactions as well as ear infections, intracranial injury, cellulitis, and concussion within 2 months after vaccination. While allergic reaction and cellulitis are consistent with the known safety profile of 4vHPV vaccine, the association of the other outcomes were determined by an independent Safety Review Committee to be most likely a result of activities common in adolescent males that coincide with the timing of vaccination and not directly related to vaccination itself.Implications and Contributions: The study results support the general safety of routine immunization with 4vHPV vaccine among males to prevent HPV-related diseases and cancers.

Health Care Resource Utilization and Economic Burden Associated With Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data From Clinical Practice at a Large Health Care Provider in Israel.

PURPOSE: Congenital cytomegalovirus infection (cCMVi) is the leading cause of nonhereditary sensorineural hearing loss and can cause other long-term neurodevelopmental disabilities; however, data on the economic burden of cCMVi during early childhood are scarce. The primary objective of the study was to describe longitudinal patterns of health care resource utilization (HCRU) and direct medical costs among infants with cCMVi compared to infants unexposed to cCMVi. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data on infants born between 2013 and 2017, as captured in the database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, a 2.5 million-member health care organization in Israel. cCMVi cases were identified by physician diagnosis and/or dispensed valganciclovir within 90 days after birth. Infants born to mothers CMV-seronegative throughout pregnancy were selected for comparison (unexposed controls). Infants were retrospectively followed up through December 31, 2018, or 4 years of age (Y4). HCRU included physician visits, hospital admissions, audiology tests/procedures, imaging, and valganciclovir treatment. Direct medical costs, in US dollars per person per year (USD PPPY) were calculated from the health-system perspective. To compare costs of cCMVi cases and controls, direct medical costs were estimated using a generalized linear model with a log link function and γ distribution after adjustment for patient characteristics. FINDINGS: A total of 351 cCMVi cases and 11,733 control infants with continuous follow-up during their first year of life (Y1) were included in the study. In Y1, cases were more likely to have a hospital admission (8.5% cases vs 4.5% control; P < 0.001) and higher numbers of pediatrician visits (median, 18 vs 15), audiology visits and tests, and cranial ultrasounds (all, P < 0.05). Longitudinally, incremental costs associated with cases were highest in Y1 (1686.7 USD PPPY; cost ratio = 2.6; P < 0.001) and remained elevated through Y4. IMPLICATIONS: cCMVi was associated with substantial increases in HCRU and economic burden during early childhood, and particularly during the first year of life.

Epidemiology of cytomegalovirus infection in pregnancy in Israel: Real-world data from a large healthcare organization.

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection (cCMVi) is the leading cause of nonhereditary sensorineural hearing loss among newborns. Women newly acquiring cytomegalovirus infection (CMVi) during pregnancy have the highest risk of vertical transmission. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of CMVi in pregnancy in a large healthcare database. A retrospective cohort study was performed using the Maccabi Healthcare Services database (Israel). Women aged 18-44 years old on July 1, 2013 with no record of pregnancy in the prior 6 months were followed through December 31, 2017 for first pregnancy occurrence. Pregnancy outcomes (live birth, spontaneous/therapeutic abortions, stillbirth, and uncertain outcomes) were captured. CMV test results were obtained to assess serostatus at the start of pregnancy (SoP) and primary CMV infection (CMVi) during pregnancy. Associations of demographic and reproductive factors with pCMVi were investigated (multivariable logistic regression). The study included 84 699 pregnant women (median age = 31 years; interquartile range = 28-35). Live birth, fetal loss, and uncertain pregnancy outcomes accounted for 76.8%, 18.2%, and 5.0%, respectively. The seroprevalence of CMV at the start of pregnancy in this cohort was 63.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 63.1-63.7). Among seronegative women with available test results (n = 10 657), CMVi incidence was 14.5 per 1000 (95% CI = 12.2-16.7). In multivariate logistic regression models adjusting for maternal age, CMVi was significantly associated with having one or more prior live births (odds ratio [OR]: 3.8 [95% CI: 2.6-5.4]) and having a child less than 6 years of age (OR: 4.3 [95%CI: 3.0-6.1]). One in three pregnant women in Israel is at risk for primary CMVi. This study demonstrates that real-world electronic healthcare data can be leveraged to support clinical management and development of interventions for congenital CMV by identifying women at high risk for CMVi during pregnancy.

Vaccine initiation and 3-dose series completion of 4vHPV vaccine among US insured males 2012-2016.

OBJECTIVE: The quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (4vHPV, GARDASIL®), was approved in the US in 2009 for use in males aged 9 to 26 for the prevention of HPV-related genital warts, and in 2010 for the prevention of certain HPV-related anogenital diseases. A regimen was approved in 2016 for those who initiate the vaccine series between the ages of 9 to 14 years. We describe patterns of 4vHPV administration among US males before this modification. METHODS: The study used a US health insurance claims database, and included males, age 9 to 26 years, who initiated 4vHPV between 2012 and 2016. Time from first dose to subsequent doses was estimated. Logistic regression identified factors associated with regimen completion. RESULTS: Among 100,786 males who initiated 4vHPV (corresponding to âˆ¼ 13% of male birth cohorts), 50,573 (50.2%) and 25,763 (25.6%) received a second and third dose, respectively. Annual administration was common, with 47% of males receiving 3 doses over 3 years (1 dose per year) as compared to 12% receiving the 3-dose series in the recommended 6-month timeframe. Receipt of 4vHPV was 2.2 (range 1.5 to 2.9) times as likely to occur in summer months compared to other times of the year. Individuals aged 18 to 21 years and those living in Western states or rural regions were less likely to complete the 3-dose regimen. CONCLUSIONS: The real-world patterns of 4vHPV vaccination observed, particularly the low uptake and regimen completion, suggest that better strategies are needed for males to improve 4vHPV vaccine use in males.

CMV viral load kinetics as surrogate endpoints after allogeneic transplantation.

BACKGROUNDViral load (VL) surrogate endpoints transformed development of HIV and hepatitis C therapeutics. Surrogate endpoints for CMV-related morbidity and mortality could advance development of antiviral treatments. Although observational data support using CMV VL as a trial endpoint, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating direct associations between virological markers and clinical endpoints are lacking.METHODSWe performed CMV DNA PCR on frozen serum samples from the only placebo-controlled RCT of ganciclovir for early treatment of CMV after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We used established criteria to assess VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease or death by weeks 8, 24, and 48 after randomization and quantified antiviral effects captured by each marker. We used ensemble-based machine learning to assess the predictive ability of VL kinetics and performed this analysis on a ganciclovir prophylaxis RCT for validation.RESULTSVL suppression with ganciclovir reduced cumulative incidence of CMV disease and death for 20 years after HCT. Mean VL, peak VL, and change in VL during the first 5 weeks of treatment fulfilled the Prentice definition for surrogacy, capturing more than 95% of ganciclovir's effect, and yielded highly sensitive and specific predictions by week 48. In the prophylaxis trial, the viral shedding rate satisfied the Prentice definition for CMV disease by week 24.CONCLUSIONSOur results support using CMV VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease, provide a framework for developing CMV preventative and therapeutic agents, and support reductions in VL as the mechanism through which antivirals reduce CMV disease.FUNDINGMerck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

The Role of Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection in Adverse Birth Outcomes: A Review of the Potential Mechanisms.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a major cause of nonhereditary adverse birth outcomes, including hearing and visual loss, neurologic deficits, and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), and may contribute to outcomes such as stillbirth and preterm delivery. However, the mechanisms by which CMV could cause adverse birth outcomes are not fully understood. This study reviewed proposed mechanisms underlying the role of CMV in stillbirth, preterm birth, and IUGR. Targeted literature searches were performed in PubMed and Embase to identify relevant articles. Several potential mechanisms were identified from in vitro studies in which laboratory-adapted and low-passage strains of CMV and various human placental models were used. Potential mechanisms identified included impairment of trophoblast progenitor stem cell differentiation and function, impairment of extravillous trophoblast invasiveness, dysregulation of Wnt signaling pathways in cytotrophoblasts, tumor necrosis factor-α mediated apoptosis of trophoblasts, CMV-induced cytokine changes in the placenta, inhibition of indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase activity, and downregulation of trophoblast class I major histocompatibility complex molecules. Inherent challenges for the field remain in the identification of suitable in vivo animal models. Nonetheless, we believe that our review provides useful insights into the mechanisms by which CMV impairs placental development and function and how these changes could result in adverse birth outcomes.

Long-term effectiveness of zoster vaccine live for postherpetic neuralgia prevention.

BACKGROUND: Postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) occurs in 5-30% of individuals with herpes zoster (HZ) and is characterized by long-lasting pain. Zoster vaccine live (ZVL) is licensed for people 50 years and older to prevent HZ and PHN. This study evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of ZVL against PHN. METHODS: We conducted an open cohort study within Kaiser Permanente Northern California with continuous accrual of people as they became age-eligible for ZVL. We defined PHN using a PHN diagnosis between 90 and 365 days after an incident episode of HZ. We estimated VE against PHN using Cox regression with a calendar timeline stratified by year of birth and adjusted for sex, race, influenza vaccination, outpatient visit frequency, comorbidities, and immune compromise status. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2016, 1·5 million people entered the study population and 33% received ZVL. During 7·6 million person-years of follow-up, there were 62,205 HZ cases, 4150 (6·7%) of which went on to develop PHN. Overall VE for PHN was 64·8% (95% CI 61·3, 68). VE was 82·8% (95% CI 77·6, 86·7) during the first year after vaccination, 58·3% (95% CI 50.1, 65.2) during the third year, and then waned more gradually to 48·7% (95% CI 30·2, 62·3) during the eighth year. VE in persons vaccinated when aged 80 years or older was similar to VE in younger vaccinees. VE in persons vaccinated when immune compromised was similar to VE in immune competent. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, ZVL was 65% effective against PHN. It was effective in all age groups and provided moderate protection through 8 years.

Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials: introduction and methodology.

BACKGROUND: As increasing numbers of dengue vaccines and therapeutics are in clinical development, standardized consensus clinical endpoint definitions are urgently needed to assess the efficacy of different interventions with respect to disease severity. We aimed to convene dengue experts representing various sectors and dengue endemic areas to review the literature and propose clinical endpoint definitions for moderate and severe disease based on the framework provided by the WHO 2009 classification. METHODS: The endpoints were first proposed and discussed in a structured expert consultation. After that, the Delphi method was carried out to assess the usefulness, validity and feasibility of the standardized clinical disease endpoints for interventional dengue research. RESULTS: Most respondents (> 80%) agreed there is a need for both standardized clinical endpoints and operationalization of severe endpoints. Most respondents (67%) felt there is utility for moderate severity endpoints, but cited challenges in their development. Hospitalization as a moderate endpoint of disease severity or measure of public health impact was deemed to be useful by only 47% of respondents, but 89% felt it could bring about supplemental information if carefully contextualized according to data collection setting. Over half of the respondents favored alignment of the standard endpoints with the WHO guidelines (58%), but cautioned that the endpoints could have ramifications for public health practice. In terms of data granularity of the endpoints, there was a slight preference for a categorical vs numeric system (e.g. 1-10) (47% vs 34%), and 74% of respondents suggested validating the endpoints using large prospective data sets. CONCLUSION: The structured consensus-building process was successful taking into account the history of the debate around potential endpoints for severe dengue. There is clear support for the development of standardized endpoints for interventional clinical research and the need for subsequent validation with prospective data sets. Challenges include the complexity of developing moderate disease research endpoints for dengue.

Cytomegalovirus viral load and mortality after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation in the era of pre-emptive therapy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although cytomegalovirus viral load is commonly used to guide pre-emptive therapy in the post-transplantation setting, few data are available correlating viraemia with clinical endpoints. We therefore investigated the association between cytomegalovirus viral load and mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, WA, USA, who received an allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation between Jan 1, 2007, and Feb 28, 2013, were cytomegalovirus seropositive or had a seropositive donor, and underwent weekly plasma cytomegalovirus monitoring by PCR through to day 100 post-transplantation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of cytomegalovirus viral load at different thresholds with overall mortality by 1 year post-transplantation, adjusting for the use of pre-emptive therapy and other factors such as neutropenia, and graft-versus-host disease. FINDINGS: Of the 1037 patients initially selected for inclusion in this cohort, 87 (8%) patients were excluded because of missing cytomegalovirus testing and 24 (2%) were excluded because of their participation in cytomegalovirus prophylaxis trials. In the remaining 926 patients included in this study, the cumulative overall mortality was 30·0% (95% CI 26·9-33·0) 1 year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. 95 patients developed cytomegalovirus disease; death was directly attributable to cytomegalovirus disease in three (1%) of 263 patients who died in the first year after transplantation. A cytomegalovirus viral load of 250 IU/mL or greater was associated with increased risk of early (day 0-60 post-transplantation) death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 19·8, 95% CI 9·6-41·1). The risk was attenuated after day 60 (adjusted HR 1·8, 95% CI 1·3-2·3). Similar associations were noted for higher cytomegalovirus viral load thresholds. INTERPRETATION: Cytomegalovirus viraemia is associated with an increased risk of overall mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation, independent of the use of pre-emptive therapy, and with evidence of a positive dose-response relationship. These data indicate the suitability of viral load as a surrogate clinical endpoint for clinical trials for cytomegalovirus vaccines, biologics, and drugs. FUNDING: Merck and Co, National Institutes of Health.

Prevalence and correlates of oral human papillomavirus infection among healthy males and females in Lima, Peru.

PURPOSE: The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) associated head and neck cancers (HNCs) have been increasing in Peru. However, the burden of oral HPV infection in Peru has not been assessed. The objective of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the prevalence and correlates of oral HPV infection in a population-based sample from males and females from Lima, Peru. METHODS: Between January 2010 and June 2011, a population-based sample of 1099 individuals between the ages of 10 and 85 from a low-income neighbourhood in Lima, Peru was identified through random household sampling. Information on demographic, sexual behaviours, reproductive factors and oral hygiene were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Oral rinse specimens were collected from each participant, and these specimens were genotyped using the Roche Linear Array assay. ORs were used to assess differences in the prevalence of any oral HPV and any high-risk oral HPV infection by demographic factors, sexual practices and oral hygiene among individuals 15+ years of age. RESULTS: The prevalence of any HPV and any high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) was 6.8% and 2.0%, respectively. The three most common types were HPV 55 (3.4%), HPV 6 (1.5%) and HPV 16 (1.1%). Male sex (aOR, 2.21; 95% CI 1.22 to 4.03) was associated with any HPV infection after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of oral HPV in this study was similar to estimates observed in the USA. Higher prevalence of oral infections in males was consistent with a male predominance of HPV-associated HNCs and may signal a sex-specific aetiology in the natural history of infection.

Correlation of plasma nitrite/nitrate levels and inducible nitric oxide gene expression among women with cervical abnormalities and cancer.

Cervical cancer is caused by infection with high risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV). Inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), a soluble factor involved in chronic inflammation, may modulate cervical cancer risk among HPV infected women. The aim of the study was to measure and correlate plasma nitrite/nitrate levels with tissue specific expression of iNOS mRNA among women with different grades of cervical lesions and cervical cancer. Tissue biopsy and plasma specimens were collected from 120 women with cervical neoplasia or cancer (ASCUS, LSIL, HSIL and invasive cancer) and 35 women without cervical abnormalities. Inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) mRNA from biopsy and plasma nitrite/nitrate levels of the same study subjects were measured. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis was performed on the promoter region and Ser608Leu (rs2297518) in exon 16 of the iNOS gene. Differences in iNOS gene expression and plasma nitrite/nitrate levels were compared across disease stage using linear and logistic regression analysis. Compared to normal controls, women diagnosed with HSIL or invasive cancer had a significantly higher concentration of plasma nitrite/nitrate and a higher median fold-change in iNOS mRNA gene expression. Genotyping of the promoter region showed three different variations: A pentanucleotide repeat (CCTTT) n, -1026T > G (rs2779249) and a novel variant -1153T > A. These variants were associated with increased levels of plasma nitrite/nitrate across all disease stages. The higher expression of iNOS mRNA and plasma nitrite/nitrate among women with pre-cancerous lesions suggests a role for nitric oxide in the natural history of cervical cancer.

Biomarkers and mortality in severe Chagas cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Chagas cardiomyopathy is a chronic sequela of infection by the parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. Advanced cardiomyopathy is associated with a high mortality rate, and clinical characteristics have been used to predict mortality risk. Though multiple biomarkers have been associated with Chagas cardiomyopathy, it is unknown how these are related to survival. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify biomarkers associated with mortality in individuals with severe Chagas cardiomyopathy in an urban Bolivian hospital. METHODS: The population included individuals with and without T. cruzi infection recruited in an urban hospital in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Baseline characteristics, electrocardiogram findings, medications, and serum cardiac biomarker levels (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], creatine kinase-myocardial band [CK-MB], troponin I, matrix metalloproteinase [MMP]-2, MMP-9, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases [TIMP] 1 and 2, transforming growth factor [TGF] beta 1 and 2) were ascertained. Echocardiograms were performed on those with cardiac symptoms or electrocardiogram abnormalities at baseline. Participants were contacted approximately 1 year after initial evaluation; deaths were reported by family members. Receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were used to optimize cutoff values for each marker. For markers with area under the curve (AUC) >0.55, Cox proportional hazards models were performed to determine the hazards ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of each marker with mortality. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 14.1 months (interquartile range 12.5, 16.7). Of 254 individuals with complete cardiac data, 220 (87%) had follow-up data. Of 50 patients with severe Chagas cardiomyopathy at baseline, 20 (40%) had died. Higher baseline levels of BNP (HR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.2 to 8.4), NT-proBNP (HR: 4.4, 95% CI: 1.8 to 11.0), CK-MB (HR: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.3 to 8.0), and MMP-2 (HR: 4.2, 95% CI: 1.5 to 11.8) were significantly associated with subsequent mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Severe Chagas cardiomyopathy is associated with high short-term mortality. BNP, NT-proBNP, CK-MB, and MMP-2 have added predictive value for mortality, even in the presence of decreased ejection fraction and other clinical signs of congestive heart failure.

Prevalence and Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in People of Rural Communities of the High Jungle of Northern Peru.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi is seen exclusively in the Americas where an estimated 8 million people are infected with the parasite. Significant research in southern Peru has been conducted to understand T. cruzi infection and vector control, however, much less is known about the burden of infection and epidemiology in northern Peru. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of T. cruzi infection in humans (n=611) and domestic animals [dogs (n=106) and guinea pigs (n=206)] in communities of Cutervo Province, Peru. Sampling and diagnostic strategies differed according to species. An entomological household study (n=208) was conducted to identify the triatomine burden and species composition, as well as the prevalence of T. cruzi in vectors. Electrocardiograms (EKG) were performed on a subset of participants (n=90 T. cruzi infected participants and 170 age and sex-matched controls). The seroprevalence of T. cruzi among humans, dogs, and guinea pigs was 14.9% (95% CI: 12.2-18.0%), 19.8% (95% CI: 12.7-28.7%) and 3.3% (95% CI: 1.4-6.9%) respectively. In one community, the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was 17.2% (95% CI: 9.6-24.7%) among participants < 15 years, suggesting recent transmission. Increasing age, positive triatomines in a participant's house, and ownership of a T. cruzi positive guinea pig were independent correlates of T. cruzi infection. Only one species of triatomine was found, Panstrongylus lignarius, formerly P. herreri. Approximately forty percent (39.9%, 95% CI: 33.2-46.9%) of surveyed households were infested with this vector and 14.9% (95% CI: 10.4-20.5%) had at least one triatomine positive for T. cruzi. The cardiac abnormality of right bundle branch block was rare, but only identified in seropositive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our research documents a substantial prevalence of T. cruzi infection in Cutervo and highlights a need for greater attention and vector control efforts in northern Peru.