The FAME trial study protocol: In younger adults with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting, is ankle function not worse than those treated with surgical intervention?

Aims: Ankle fracture is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries sustained in the UK. Many patients experience pain and physical impairment, with the consequences of the fracture and its management lasting for several months or even years. The broad aim of ankle fracture treatment is to maintain the alignment of the joint while the fracture heals, and to reduce the risks of problems, such as stiffness. More severe injuries to the ankle are routinely treated surgically. However, even with advances in surgery, there remains a risk of complications; for patients experiencing these, the associated loss of function and quality of life (Qol) is considerable. Non-surgical treatment is an alternative to surgery and involves applying a cast carefully shaped to the patient's ankle to correct and maintain alignment of the joint with the key benefit being a reduction in the frequency of common complications of surgery. The main potential risk of non-surgical treatment is a loss of alignment with a consequent reduction in ankle function. This study aims to determine whether ankle function, four months after treatment, in patients with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting is not worse than in those treated with surgical intervention, which is the current standard of care. Methods: This trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomized non-inferiority clinical trial with an embedded pilot, and with 12 months clinical follow-up and parallel economic analysis. A surveillance study using routinely collected data will be performed annually to five years post-treatment. Adult patients, aged 60 years and younger, with unstable ankle fractures will be identified in daily trauma meetings and fracture clinics and approached for recruitment prior to their treatment. Treatments will be performed in trauma units across the UK by a wide range of surgeons. Details of the surgical treatment, including how the operation is done, implant choice, and the recovery programme afterwards, will be at the discretion of the treating surgeon. The non-surgical treatment will be close-contact casting performed under anaesthetic, a technique which has gained in popularity since the publication of the Ankle Injury Management (AIM) trial. In all, 890 participants (445 per group) will be randomly allocated to surgical or non-surgical treatment. Data regarding ankle function, QoL, complications, and healthcare-related costs will be collected at eight weeks, four and 12 months, and then annually for five years following treatment. The primary outcome measure is patient-reported ankle function at four months from treatment. Anticipated impact: The 12-month results will be presented and published internationally. This is anticipated to be the only pragmatic trial reporting outcomes comparing surgical with non-surgical treatment in unstable ankle fractures in younger adults (aged 60 years and younger), and, as such, will inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 'non-complex fracture' recommendations at their scheduled update in 2024. A report of long-term outcomes at five years will be produced by January 2027.

Use of removable support boot versus cast for early mobilisation after ankle fracture surgery: cost-effectiveness analysis and qualitative findings of the Ankle Recovery Trial (ART).

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of using a removable boot versus a cast following ankle fracture from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services (NHS+PSS) payer and societal perspectives and explore the impact of both treatments on participants' activities of daily living. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analyses and qualitative interviews performed alongside a pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Eight UK NHS secondary care trusts. PARTICIPANTS: 243 participants (60.5% female, on average 48.2 years of age (SD 16.4)) with ankle fracture. Qualitative interviews with 16 participants. Interventions removable air boot versus plaster cast 2 weeks after surgery weight bearing as able with group-specific exercises. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) estimated from the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire, costs and incremental net monetary benefit statistics measured 12 weeks after surgery, for a society willing-to-pay £20 000 per QALY. RESULTS: Care in the boot group cost, on average, £88 (95% CI £22 to £155) per patient more than in the plaster group from the NHS+PSS perspective. When including all societal costs, the boot saved, on average, £676 per patient (95% CI -£337 to £1689). Although there was no evidence of a QALY difference between the groups (-0.0020 (95% CI -0.0067 to 0.0026)), the qualitative findings suggest participants felt the boot enhanced their quality of life. Patients in the boot felt more independent and empowered to take on family responsibilities and social activities. CONCLUSIONS: While the removable boot is slightly more expensive than plaster cast for the NHS+PSS payer at 12 weeks after surgery, it reduces productivity losses and the need for informal care while empowering patients. Given that differences in QALYs and costs to the NHS are small, the decision to use a boot or plaster following ankle surgery could be left to patients' and clinicians' preferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15497399, South Central-Hampshire A Research Ethics Committee (reference 14/SC/1409).

Patients' recovery of mobility and return to original residence after hip fracture are associated with multiple modifiable components of hospital service organisation: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are devastating injuries causing disability, dependence, and institutionalisation, yet hospital care is highly variable. This study aimed to determine hospital organisational factors associated with recovery of mobility and change in patient residence after hip fracture. METHODS: A cohort of patients aged 60 + years in England and Wales, who sustained a hip fracture from 2016 to 2019 was examined. Patient-level Hospital Episodes Statistics, National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality records were linked to 101 factors derived from 18 hospital-level organisational metrics. After adjustment for patient case-mix, multilevel models were used to identify organisational factors associated with patient residence at discharge, and mobility and residence at 120 days after hip fracture. RESULTS: Across 172 hospitals, 165,350 patients survived to discharge, of whom 163,230 (99%) had post-hospital discharge destination recorded. 18,323 (11%) died within 120 days. Among 147,027 survivors, 58,344 (40%) across 143 hospitals had their residence recorded, and 56,959 (39%) across 140 hospitals had their mobility recorded, at 120 days. Nineteen organisational factors independently predicted residence on hospital discharge e.g., return to original residence was 31% (95% confidence interval, CI:17-43%) more likely if the anaesthetic lead for hip fracture had time allocated in their job plan, and 8-13% more likely if hip fracture service clinical governance meetings were attended by an orthopaedic surgeon, physiotherapist or anaesthetist. Seven organisational factors independently predicted residence at 120 days. Patients returning to their pre-fracture residence was 26% (95%CI:4-42%) more likely if hospitals had a dedicated hip fracture ward, and 20% (95%CI:8-30%) more likely if treatment plans were proactively discussed with patients and families on admission. Seventeen organisational factors predicted mobility at 120 days. More patients re-attained their pre-fracture mobility in hospitals where (i) care involved an orthogeriatrician (15% [95%CI:1-28%] improvement), (ii) general anaesthesia was usually accompanied by a nerve block (7% [95%CI:1-12%], and (iii) bedside haemoglobin testing was routine in theatre recovery (13% [95%CI:6-20%]). CONCLUSIONS: Multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors are associated with patient outcomes up to 120 days after a hip fracture, these factors if causal should be targeted by service improvement initiatives to reduce variability, improve hospital hip fracture care, and maximise patient independence.

Organisational factors associated with hospital costs and patient mortality in the 365 days following hip fracture in England and Wales (REDUCE): a record-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture care delivery varies between hospitals, which might explain variations in patient outcomes and health costs. The aim of this study was to identify hospital-level organisational factors associated with long-term patient outcomes and costs after hip fracture. METHODS: REDUCE was a record-linkage cohort study in which national databases for all patients aged 60 years and older who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales were linked with hospital metrics from 18 organisational data sources. Multilevel models identified organisational factors associated with the case-mix adjusted primary outcomes: cumulative all-cause mortality, days spent in hospital, and inpatient costs over 365 days after hip fracture. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2019, 178 757 patients with an index hip fracture were identified from 172 hospitals in England and Wales. 126 278 (70·6%) were female, 52 479 (29·4%) were male, and median age was 84 years (IQR 77-89) in England and 83 years (77-89) in Wales. 365 days after hip fracture, 50 354 (28·2%) patients had died. Patients spent a median 21 days (IQR 11-41) in hospital, incurring costs of £14 642 (95% CI 14 600-14 683) per patient, ranging from £10 867 (SD 5880) to £23 188 (17 223) between hospitals. 11 organisational factors were independently associated with mortality, 24 with number of days in hospital, and 25 with inpatient costs. Having all patients assessed by an orthogeriatrician within 72 h of admission was associated with a mean cost saving of £529 (95% CI 148-910) per patient and a lower 365-day mortality (odds ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·76-0·94]). Consultant orthogeriatrician attendance at clinical governance meetings was associated with cost savings of £356 (95% CI 188-525) and 1·47 fewer days (95% CI 0·89-2·05) in the hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture per patient. The provision of physiotherapy to patients on weekends was associated with a cost saving of £676 (95% CI 67-1285) per patient and with 2·32 fewer days (0·35-4·29) in hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture. INTERPRETATION: Multiple, potentially modifiable hospital-level organisational factors associated with important clinical outcomes and inpatient costs were identified that should inform initiatives to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of hip fracture services. FUNDING: Versus Arthritis.

Multiple hospital organisational factors are associated with adverse patient outcomes post-hip fracture in England and Wales: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite established standards and guidelines, substantial variation remains in the delivery of hip fracture care across the United Kingdom. We aimed to determine which hospital-level organisational factors predict adverse patient outcomes in the months following hip fracture. METHODS: We examined a national record-linkage cohort of 178,757 patients aged ≥60 years who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales in 2016-19. Patient-level hospital admissions datasets, National Hip Fracture Database and mortality data were linked to metrics from 18 hospital-level organisational-level audits and reports. Multilevel models identified organisational factors, independent of patient case-mix, associated with three patient outcomes: length of hospital stay (LOS), 30-day all-cause mortality and emergency 30-day readmission. RESULTS: Across hospitals mean LOS ranged from 12 to 41.9 days, mean 30-day mortality from 3.7 to 10.4% and mean readmission rates from 3.7 to 30.3%, overall means were 21.4 days, 7.3% and 15.3%, respectively. In all, 22 organisational factors were independently associated with LOS; e.g. a hospital's ability to mobilise >90% of patients promptly after surgery predicted a 2-day shorter LOS (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-2.6). Ten organisational factors were independently associated with 30-day mortality; e.g. discussion of patient experience feedback at clinical governance meetings and provision of prompt surgery to >80% of patients were each associated with 10% lower mortality (95%CI: 5-15%). Nine organisational factors were independently associated with readmissions; e.g. readmissions were 17% lower if hospitals reported how soon community therapy would start after discharge (95%CI: 9-24%). CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of hip fracture care should be reliable and equitable across the country. We have identified multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors associated with important patient outcomes following hip fracture.

Cost-Effectiveness of Group-Based Outpatient Physical Therapy After Total Knee Replacement: Results From the Economic Evaluation Alongside the ARENA Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-utility and cost-effectiveness of a group-based outpatient physical therapy intervention delivered 6 weeks after primary total knee replacement (TKR) compared with usual care, alongside the Activity-Orientated Rehabilitation Following Knee Arthroplasty (ARENA) multicenter, randomized, controlled trial. METHODS: The economic analyses were performed from the perspective of the health and social care payer. We collected resource use for health and social care and productivity losses and patient outcomes for 12 months after surgery to derive costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results were expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and incremental net monetary benefit statistics (INMBs) for a society willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained, with sensitivity analyses to model specification and perspective. RESULTS: The cost of the ARENA physical therapy classes was mean ± SD £179 ± 39 per patient. Treatment in the year following surgery cost was, on average, £1,739 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] -£742, £4,221) per patient in the intervention group (n = 89), which was an additional £346 (95% CI £38, £653) per patient compared with usual care (n = 91) (£1,393 [95% CI -£780, £3,568]). QALY benefits were 0.0506 higher (95% CI 0.009, 0.09) in the intervention group, corresponding to an additional 19 days in "perfect health." The ICER for the intervention group was £6,842 per QALY gained, and the INMB was £665 (95% CI £139, £1,191), with a 92% probability of being cost-effective, and no less than 73% in all sensitivity analysis scenarios. CONCLUSION: The addition of group-based outpatient physical therapy classes to usual care improves quality of life and is a cost-effective treatment option following TKR for a society WTP threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained.

Idiopathic Scoliosis Trends One Year After COVID-19: A Retrospective Study.

Introduction The reorganization of healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with compromised management of conditions not related to the pandemic. Methods A retrospective descriptive case series study was carried out that included patients followed up at the Spine Deformities (SD) consultation at Centro Hospitalar e Universitário Lisboa Central from January 2019 through December 2021 regarding diagnosis, treatment, referral, and the number of consultations performed. Results Referrals significantly dropped in 2020 (p<0.001). The average number of consultations per patient was found to not vary significantly in 2020 despite the reorganization of our healthcare unit due to the pandemic. 22% of the consultations were performed online. Idiopathic scoliosis (IS) was the primary diagnosis in 50% of the patients observed for the first time during the three-year time period. An increase of 18% was found in the number of IS patients that required bracing in 2021. However, late referrals, defined as the patient meeting surgical criteria at the time of initial presentation, did not increase. Conclusion Despite the significant decrease in primary care referrals during 2020, an overcompensation increase in referrals was not observed in 2021. However, the increase in the percentage of patients needing bracing might reflect a delayed initial presentation to the SD consultation.

REducing unwarranted variation in the Delivery of high qUality hip fraCture services in England and Wales (REDUCE): protocol for a mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Substantial variation in the delivery of hip fracture care, and patient outcomes persists between hospitals, despite established UK national standards and guidelines. Patients' outcomes are partly explained by patient-level risk factors, but it is hypothesised that organisational-level factors account for the persistence of unwarranted variation in outcomes. The mixed-methods REducing unwarranted variation in the Delivery of high qUality hip fraCture services in England and Wales (REDUCE) study, aims to determine key organisational factors to target to improve patient care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Quantitative analysis will assess the outcomes of patients treated at 172 hospitals in England and Wales (2016-2019) using National Hip Fracture Database data combined with English Hospital Episodes Statistics; Patient Episode Database for Wales; Civil Registration (deaths) and multiple organisational-level audits to characterise each service provider. Statistical analyses will identify which organisational factors explain variation in patient outcomes, and typify care pathways with high-quality consistent patient outcomes. Documentary analysis of 20 anonymised British Orthopaedic Association hospital-initiated peer-review reports, and qualitative interviews with staff from four diverse UK hospitals providing hip fracture care, will identify barriers and facilitators to care delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a major challenge to the resilience of services and interviews will explore strategies used to adapt and innovate. This system-wide understanding will inform the development, in partnership with key national stakeholders, of an 'Implementation Toolkit' to inform and improve commissioning and delivery of hip fracture services. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved: quantitative study by London, City and East Research Ethics Committee (20/LO/0101); and qualitative study by Faculty of Health Sciences University of Bristol Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 108284), National Health Service (NHS) Health Research Authority (20/HRA/71) and each NHS Trust provided Research and Development approval. Findings will be disseminated through scientific conferences, peer-reviewed journals and online workshops.

The effectiveness of peroneal nerve functional electrical simulation for the reduction of bradykinesia in Parkinson's disease: A feasibility study for a randomised control trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility of a multi-site randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effect of functional electrical stimulation on bradykinesia in people with Parkinson's disease. DESIGN: A two-arm assessor blinded randomised controlled trial with an 18 weeks intervention period and 4 weeks post-intervention follow-up. SETTING: Two UK hospitals; a therapy outpatient department in a district general hospital and a specialist neuroscience centre. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 64 participants with idiopathic Parkinson's disease and slow gait <1.25 ms-1. INTERVENTIONS: Functional electrical stimulation delivered to the common peroneal nerve while walking in addition to standard care compared with standard care alone. MAIN MEASURES: Feasibility aims included the determination of sample size, recruitment and retention rates, acceptability of the protocol and confirmation of the primary outcome measure. The outcome measures were 10 m walking speed, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS), Mini Balance Evaluation Systems Test, Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire-39, EuroQol 5-dimension 5-level, New Freezing of Gait questionnaire, Falls Efficacy Score International and falls diary. Participants opinion on the study design and relevance of outcome measures were evaluated using an embedded qualitative study. RESULTS: There was a mean difference between groups of 0.14 ms-1 (CI 0.03, 0.26) at week 18 in favour of the treatment group, which was maintained at week 22, 0.10 ms-1 (CI -0.05, 0.25). There was a mean difference in UPDRS motor examination score of -3.65 (CI -4.35, 0.54) at week 18 which was lost at week 22 -0.91 (CI -2.19, 2.26). CONCLUSION: The study design and intervention were feasible and supportive for a definitive trial. While both the study protocol and intervention were acceptable, recommendations for modifications are made.

Choice between implants in knee replacement: protocol for a Bayesian network meta-analysis, analysis of joint registries and economic decision model to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of knee implants for NHS patients-The KNee Implant Prostheses Study (KNIPS).

INTRODUCTION: Knee replacements are highly successful for many people, but if a knee replacement fails, revision surgery is generally required. Surgeons and patients may choose from a range of implant components and combinations that make up knee replacement constructs, all with potential implications for how long a knee replacement will last. To inform surgeon and patient decisions, a comprehensive synthesis of data from randomised controlled trials is needed to evaluate the effects of different knee replacement implants on overall construct survival. Due to limited follow-up in trials, joint registry analyses are also needed to assess the long-term survival of constructs. Finally, economic modelling can identify cost-effective knee replacement constructs for different patient groups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this protocol, we describe systematic reviews and network meta-analyses to synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of knee replacement constructs used in total and unicompartmental knee replacement and analyses of two national joint registries to assess long-term outcomes. Knee replacement constructs are defined by bearing materials and mobility, constraint, fixation and patella resurfacing. For men and women in different age groups, we will compare the lifetime cost-effectiveness of knee replacement constructs. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Systematic reviews are secondary analyses of published data with no ethical approval required. We will design a common joint registry analysis plan and provide registry representatives with information for submission to research or ethics committees. The project has been assessed by the National Health Service (NHS) REC committee and does not require ethical review.Study findings will be disseminated to clinicians, researchers and administrators through open access articles, presentations and websites. Specific UK-based groups will be informed of results including National Institute for Health Research and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, as well as international orthopaedic associations and charities. Effective dissemination to patients will be guided by our patient-public involvement group and include written lay summaries and infographics. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019134059 and CRD42019138015.

Effect of Group-Based Outpatient Physical Therapy on Function After Total Knee Replacement: Results From a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term clinical effectiveness of a novel group-based outpatient physical therapy (PT) following total knee replacement (TKR). METHODS: In this 2-center, unblinded, superiority, randomized controlled trial, 180 patients on a waiting list for primary TKR due to osteoarthritis were randomized to a 6 session group-based outpatient PT intervention and usual care (n = 89) or usual care alone (n = 91). The primary outcome was patient-reported functional ability measured by the Lower Extremity Functional Scale at 12 months postoperative. Secondary outcomes included knee symptoms, depression, anxiety, and satisfaction. Questionnaires were completed preoperatively and at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively. RESULTS: The mean difference in function between groups was 4.47 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.20, 8.75; P = 0.04) at 12 months postoperative, favoring the intervention. The mean difference in function between groups decreased over time, from 8.1 points at 3 months (95% CI 3.8, 12.4; P < 0.001) to 5.4 (95% CI 1.1, 9.8; P = 0.015) at 6 months postoperative. There were no clinically relevant differences in any secondary outcomes between groups, although patients in the intervention group were more likely to be satisfied with their PT. No serious adverse events related to the intervention were reported. CONCLUSION: Supplementing usual care with this group-based outpatient PT intervention led to improvements in function at 12 months after TKR, although the magnitude of the difference was below the minimum clinically important difference of 9 points. However, patient satisfaction was higher in the intervention group, and there was some evidence of clinically relevant improvements in function at 3 months.

A Web-Based Self-Help Psychosocial Intervention for Adolescents Distressed by Appearance-Affecting Conditions and Injuries (Young Persons' Face IT): Feasibility Study for a Parallel Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Disfigurement (visible difference) from wide-ranging congenital or acquired conditions, injuries, or treatments can negatively impact adolescents' psychological well-being, education and health behaviours. Alongside medical interventions, appearance-specific cognitive behavioural and social skills training to manage stigma and appearance anxiety may improve psychosocial outcomes. YP Face IT (YPF), is a Web-based seven session self-help program plus booster quiz, utilising cognitive behavioural and social skills training for young people (YP) struggling with a visible difference. Co-designed by adolescents and psychologists, it includes interactive multimedia and automated reminders to complete sessions/homework. Adolescents access YPF via a health professional who determines its suitability and remotely monitors clients' usage. OBJECTIVE: To establish the feasibility of evaluating YPF for 12-17 year olds self-reporting appearance-related distress and/or bullying associated with a visible difference. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial with nested qualitative and economic study evaluating YPF compared with usual care (UC). Feasibility outcomes included: viability of recruiting via general practitioner (GP) practices (face to face and via patient databases) and charity advertisements; intervention acceptability and adherence; feasibility of study and data collection methods; and health professionals' ability to monitor users' online data for safeguarding issues. Primary psychosocial self-reported outcomes collected online at baseline, 13, 26, and 52 weeks were as follows: appearance satisfaction (Appearance Subscale from Mendleson et al's (2001) Body Esteem Scale); social anxiety (La Greca's (1999) Social Anxiety Scale for Adolescents). Secondary outcomes were; self-esteem; romantic concerns; perceived stigmatization; social skills and healthcare usage. Participants were randomised using remote Web-based allocation. RESULTS: Thirteen charities advertised the study yielding 11 recruits, 13 primary care practices sent 687 invitations to patients on their databases with a known visible difference yielding 17 recruits (2.5% response rate), 4 recruits came from GP consultations. Recruitment was challenging, therefore four additional practices mass-mailed 3,306 generic invitations to all 12-17 year old patients yielding a further 15 participants (0.5% response rate). Forty-seven YP with a range of socioeconomic backgrounds and conditions were randomised (26% male, 91% white, mean age 14 years (SD 1.7)); 23 to YPF, 24 to UC). At 52 weeks, 16 (70%) in the intervention and 20 (83%) in UC groups completed assessments. There were no intervention-related adverse events; most found YPF acceptable with three withdrawing because they judged it was for higher-level concerns; 12 (52%) completed seven sessions. The study design was acceptable and feasible, with multiple recruitment strategies. Preliminary findings indicate no changes from baseline in outcome measures among the UC group and positive changes in appearance satisfaction and fear of negative evaluation among the YPF group when factoring in baseline scores and intervention adherence. CONCLUSIONS: YPF is novel, safe and potentially helpful. Its full psychosocial benefits should be evaluated in a large-scale RCT, which would be feasible with wide-ranging recruitment strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN40650639; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN40650639.

The Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine tool to select candidates for hip and knee replacement surgery: development and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: There is no good evidence to support the use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in setting preoperative thresholds for referral for hip and knee replacement surgery. Despite this, the practice is widespread in the NHS. OBJECTIVES/RESEARCH QUESTIONS: Can clinical outcome tools be used to set thresholds for hip or knee replacement? What is the relationship between the choice of threshold and the cost-effectiveness of surgery? METHODS: A systematic review identified PROMs used to assess patients undergoing hip/knee replacement. Their measurement properties were compared and supplemented by analysis of existing data sets. For each candidate score, we calculated the absolute threshold (a preoperative level above which there is no potential for improvement) and relative thresholds (preoperative levels above which individuals are less likely to improve than others). Owing to their measurement properties and the availability of data from their current widespread use in the NHS, the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) were selected as the most appropriate scores to use in developing the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE) tool. The change in score and the probability of an improvement were then calculated and modelled using preoperative and postoperative OKS/OHSs and PROM scores, thereby creating the ACHE tool. Markov models were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of total hip/knee arthroplasty in the NHS for different preoperative values of OKS/OHSs over a 10-year period. The threshold values were used to model how the ACHE tool may change the number of referrals in a single UK musculoskeletal hub. A user group was established that included patients, members of the public and health-care representatives, to provide stakeholder feedback throughout the research process. RESULTS: From a shortlist of four scores, the OHS and OKS were selected for the ACHE tool based on their measurement properties, calculated preoperative thresholds and cost-effectiveness data. The absolute threshold was 40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS using the preferred improvement criterion. A range of relative thresholds were calculated based on the relationship between a patient's preoperative score and their probability of improving after surgery. For example, a preoperative OHS of 35 or an OKS of 30 translates to a 75% probability of achieving a good outcome from surgical intervention. The economic evaluation demonstrated that hip and knee arthroplasty cost of < £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for patients with any preoperative score below the absolute thresholds (40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS). Arthroplasty was most cost-effective for patients with lower preoperative scores. LIMITATIONS: The ACHE tool supports but does not replace the shared decision-making process required before an individual decides whether or not to undergo surgery. CONCLUSION: The OHS and OKS can be used in the ACHE tool to assess an individual patient's suitability for hip/knee replacement surgery. The system enables evidence-based and informed threshold setting in accordance with local resources and policies. At a population level, both hip and knee arthroplasty are highly cost-effective right up to the absolute threshold for intervention. Our stakeholder user group felt that the ACHE tool was a useful evidence-based clinical tool to aid referrals and that it should be trialled in NHS clinical practice to establish its feasibility. FUTURE WORK: Future work could include (1) a real-world study of the ACHE tool to determine its acceptability to patients and general practitioners and (2) a study of the role of the ACHE tool in supporting referral decisions. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Patients with severe hip and knee arthritis may require joint replacement. General practitioners make the decision to refer patients to hospital based on an assessment of their symptoms. Pain and function can be measured using patient questionnaires and the questionnaire scores can indicate whether or not the severity of disease warrants referral (i.e. whether or not the patient is a candidate for joint replacement based on their 'capacity to benefit'). However, we do not know whether or not basing treatment decisions on such scores is correct, nor do we know what exact pain score thresholds should be used for referral. After a thorough search, we found that the Oxford Hip and Knee Scores were the best instruments. A high score (i.e. a maximum score of 48) indicates less pain and better function. The threshold values for referral for surgery were scores of 40 for hips and 41 for knees. The process of evaluating scoring systems, the choice of scoring systems and the threshold values were discussed and agreed by a panel of patients and by doctors throughout the study. Most patients with severe joint pain benefit from joint replacement, and these operations are cost-effective. However, above a certain level (a score of 40 for hips and 41 for knees), patients are not thought to typically benefit from surgery. Below these values, lower presurgery scores indicate a steadily increasing likelihood of benefit in terms of reduced pain and better function. This information provides the basis for a tool to help doctors decide who to refer for joint replacement: the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE). Use of the ACHE tool prevents patients who are unlikely to benefit from joint replacement being referred unnecessarily and allows the NHS to concentrate resources on those who will benefit most from arthroplasty treatment.

Choice of Prosthetic Implant Combinations in Total Hip Replacement: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Using UK and Swedish Hip Joint Registries Data.

BACKGROUND: Prosthetic implants used in total hip replacements (THR) have a range of bearing surface combinations (metal-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-polyethylene, ceramic-on-ceramic, and metal-on-metal), head sizes (small [<36 mm in diameter] and large [≥36 mm in diameter]), and fixation techniques (cemented, uncemented, hybrid, and reverse hybrid). These can influence prosthesis survival, patients' quality of life, and healthcare costs. OBJECTIVES: To compare the lifetime cost-effectiveness of implants for patients of different age and sex profiles. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of various implants against small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants. The probability that patients required 1 or more revision surgeries was estimated from analyses of more than 1 million patients in the UK and Swedish hip joint registries, for men and women younger than 55, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 years and older. Implant and healthcare costs were estimated from local procurement prices, national tariffs, and the literature. Quality-adjusted life-years were calculated using published utility estimates for patients undergoing THR in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: Small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants were the most cost-effective for men and women older than 65 years. These findings were robust to sensitivity analyses. Small-head cemented ceramic-on-polyethylene implants were most cost-effective in men and women younger than 65 years, but these results were more uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: The older the patient group, the more likely that the cheapest implants, small-head cemented metal-on-polyethylene implants, were cost-effective. We found no evidence that uncemented, hybrid, or reverse hybrid implants were the most cost-effective option for any patient group. Our findings can influence clinical practice and procurement decisions for healthcare payers worldwide.

HeART of Stroke: randomised controlled, parallel-arm, feasibility study of a community-based arts and health intervention plus usual care compared with usual care to increase psychological well-being in people following a stroke.

INTRODUCTION: People often experience distress following stroke due to fundamental challenges to their identity. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate (1) the acceptability of 'HeART of Stroke' (HoS), a community-based arts and health group intervention, to increase psychological well-being; and (2) the feasibility of a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT). DESIGN: Two-centre, 24-month, parallel-arm RCT with qualitative and economic components. Randomisation was stratified by centre and stroke severity. Participant blinding was not possible. Outcome assessment blinding was attempted. SETTING: Community. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults ≤2 years poststroke recruited via hospital clinical teams/databases or community stroke/rehabilitation teams. INTERVENTIONS: Artist-facilitated arts and health group intervention (HoS) (ten 2-hour sessions over 14 weeks) plus usual care (UC) versus UC. OUTCOMES: The outcomes were self-reported measures of well-being, mood, capability, health-related quality of life, self-esteem and self-concept (baseline and 5 months postrandomisation). Key feasibility parameters were gathered, data collection methods were piloted, and participant interviews (n=24) explored the acceptability of the intervention and study processes. RESULTS: Despite a low recruitment rate (14%; 95% CI 11% to 18%), 88% of the recruitment target was met, with 29 participants randomised to HoS and 27 to UC (57% male; mean (SD) age=70 (12.1) years; time since stroke=9 (6.1) months). Follow-up data were available for 47 of 56 (84%; 95% CI 72% to 91%). Completion rates for a study-specific resource use questionnaire were 79% and 68% (National Health Service and societal perspectives). Five people declined HoS postrandomisation; of the remaining 24 who attended, 83% attended ≥6 sessions. Preliminary effect sizes for candidate primary outcomes were in the direction of benefit for the HoS arm. Participants found study processes acceptable. The intervention cost an estimated £456 per person and was well-received (no intervention-related serious adverse events were reported). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this first community-based study of an arts and health intervention for people poststroke suggest a definitive RCT is feasible. Recruitment methods will be revised. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN99728983.

Publisher Correction: Pharmacological reactivation of MYC-dependent apoptosis induces susceptibility to anti-PD-1 immunotherapy.

The original version of this Article contained an error in Fig. 7. In panel b, the survival curves were shifted relative to the y axis. This error has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Pharmacological reactivation of MYC-dependent apoptosis induces susceptibility to anti-PD-1 immunotherapy.

Elevated MYC expression sensitizes tumor cells to apoptosis but the therapeutic potential of this mechanism remains unclear. We find, in a model of MYC-driven breast cancer, that pharmacological activation of AMPK strongly synergizes with BCL-2/BCL-XL inhibitors to activate apoptosis. We demonstrate the translational potential of an AMPK and BCL-2/BCL-XL co-targeting strategy in ex vivo and in vivo models of MYC-high breast cancer. Metformin combined with navitoclax or venetoclax efficiently inhibited tumor growth, conferred survival benefits and induced tumor infiltration by immune cells. However, withdrawal of the drugs allowed tumor re-growth with presentation of PD-1+/CD8+ T cell infiltrates, suggesting immune escape. A two-step treatment regimen, beginning with neoadjuvant metformin+venetoclax to induce apoptosis and followed by adjuvant metformin+venetoclax+anti-PD-1 treatment to overcome immune escape, led to durable antitumor responses even after drug withdrawal. We demonstrate that pharmacological reactivation of MYC-dependent apoptosis is a powerful antitumor strategy involving both tumor cell depletion and immunosurveillance.

Intramuscular oxytocin versus oxytocin/ergometrine versus carbetocin for prevention of primary postpartum haemorrhage after vaginal birth: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (the IMox study).

BACKGROUND: Postpartum haemorrhage remains a major cause of maternal mortality and morbidity worldwide. Active management of the third stage of labour reduces the risk of postpartum haemorrhage. Oxytocin and oxytocin/ergometrine are commonly used in the UK, with oxytocin/ergometrine being more effective at preventing moderate, but not severe, blood loss. Many guidelines specifically recommend using oxytocin for all vaginal births, as it is associated with fewer adverse events. However, a survey conducted by the Southmead Hospital Maternity Research Team revealed that 71.4% of UK obstetric units still routinely use oxytocin/ergometrine. Carbetocin is a newer medication that may be as effective but has fewer side effects. No studies have directly compared all three medications. METHODS: The IMox study aims to determine the most effective, acceptable and cost-effective drug for primary prevention of postpartum haemorrhage following vaginal birth. The IMox study is a prospective, multi-centre, double-blind, randomised trial directly comparing oxytocin, oxytocin/ergometrine and carbetocin given intramuscularly for the prevention of postpartum haemorrhage in the third stage of labour. The primary effectiveness outcome is the use of an additional uterotonic drug. Secondary effectiveness outcomes reflect maternal morbidity and mortality within the immediate postpartum period. Participant questionnaires and subjective reporting of side effects will be used to evaluate maternal acceptability. Maternal quality of life utilities will be collected antenatally, and on days 1 and 14 after birth to enable a cost-effectiveness assessment of each studied drug. Participants will be pregnant women planning a vaginal birth in six hospitals in England. Participants will be approached and invited to provide consent to participate from 20 weeks gestation until in established labour. A complete sample of 5712 participants (1904 per arm) providing data for the primary outcome will allow for a robust determination of efficacy between all three study drugs. Data will be collected until participants are discharged from the hospital and on postnatal days 1 and 14 regardless of location. All analyses will be on a modified intention-to-treat basis, and additionally repeated on a per protocol basis. Data collection commenced in Feburary 2015 and was completed in August 2018. DISCUSSION: This study is the first to directly compare oxytocin, oxytocin/ergometrine and carbetocin in the same population for the prevention of postpartum haemorrhage following vaginal birth. Furthermore, this study will be the first to directly compute health economic outcomes from such a three-way comparison. This study is limited to using short-term outcomes, and so will not provide evidence for important outcomes such as long-term maternal psychological well-being and time to next conception. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02216383 . Registered on 18 August 2014. EudraCT, 2014-001948-37. Registered on 23 September 2014. ISRCTN, ISRCTN10232550. Retrospectively registered on 6 March 2018).

Trial of intraoperative cell salvage versus transfusion in ovarian cancer (TIC TOC): protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study.

INTRODUCTION: Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynaecological cancer, with more than 7000 new cases registered in the UK in 2014. In patients suitable for surgery, the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidance for treatment recommends surgical resection of all macroscopic tumour, followed by chemotherapy. The surgical procedure can be extensive and associated with substantial blood loss which is conventionally replaced with a donor blood transfusion. While often necessary and lifesaving, the use of donor blood is associated with increased risks of complications and adverse surgical outcomes. Intraoperative cell salvage (ICS) is a blood conservation strategy in which red cells collected from blood lost during surgery are returned to the patient thus minimising the use of donor blood. This is the protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial with an embedded qualitative study and feasibility economic evaluation. If feasible, a later definitive trial will test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ICS reinfusion versus donor blood transfusion in ovarian cancer surgery. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Sixty adult women scheduled for primary or interval ovarian cancer surgery at participating UK National Health Service Trusts will be recruited and individually randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive ICS reinfusion or donor blood (as required) during surgery. Participants will be followed up by telephone at 30 days postoperatively for adverse events monitoring and by postal questionnaire at 6 weeks and 3 monthly thereafter, to capture quality of life and resource use data. Qualitative interviews will capture participants' and clinicians' experiences of the study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been granted ethical approval by the South West-Exeter Research Ethics Committee (ref: 16/SW/0256). Results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications and will inform the design of a larger trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN19517317.

Phenotype-driven identification of epithelial signalling clusters.

In metazoans, epithelial architecture provides a context that dynamically modulates most if not all epithelial cell responses to intrinsic and extrinsic signals, including growth or survival signalling and transforming oncogene action. Three-dimensional (3D) epithelial culture systems provide tractable models to interrogate the function of human genetic determinants in establishment of context-dependency. We performed an arrayed genetic shRNA screen in mammary epithelial 3D cultures to identify new determinants of epithelial architecture, finding that the key phenotype impacting shRNAs altered not only the data population average but even more noticeably the population distribution. The broad distributions were attributable to sporadic gene silencing actions by shRNA in unselected populations. We employed Maximum Mean Discrepancy concept to capture similar population distribution patterns and demonstrate here the feasibility of the test in identifying an impact of shRNA in populations of 3D structures. Integration of the clustered morphometric data with protein-protein interactions data enabled hypothesis generation of novel biological pathways underlying similar 3D phenotype alterations. The results present a new strategy for 3D phenotype-driven pathway analysis, which is expected to accelerate discovery of context-dependent gene functions in epithelial biology and tumorigenesis.