RESUMO
Objetivo: Analizar si la fragilidad puede mejorar la predicción de mortalidad en los pacientes ingresados en UCI tras una cirugía digestiva. Diseño: Estudio prospectivo, observacional y con seguimiento a 6 meses de una cohorte de pacientes que ingresaron en UCI entre el 1 de junio de 2018 hasta el 1 de junio de 2019. Ámbito: UCI quirúrgica de un hospital de tercer nivel. Pacientes: Serie de pacientes sucesivos mayores de 70 años que ingresaron en UCI inmediatamente después de una intervención quirúrgica sobre el aparato digestivo. Fueron incluidos 92 pacientes y se excluyeron 2 por pérdida de seguimiento a los 6 meses. Intervenciones: Al ingreso en UCI se estimó gravedad y pronóstico mediante el APACHE II, y fragilidad mediante la Clinical Frailty Scale y el modified Frailty Index. Variables de interés principales: Mortalidad en UCI, intrahospitalaria y a los 6 meses. Resultados: El modelo que mejor predice mortalidad en UCI es el APACHE II, con un área bajo la curva ROC (ABC) de 0,89 y una buena calibración. El modelo que combina APACHE II y Clinical Frailty Scale es el que mejor predice mortalidad intrahospitalaria (ABC: 0,82), mejorando significativamente la predicción del APACHE II aislado (ABC: 0,78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0,04). La fragilidad es un factor predictor de mortalidad a los 6 meses, siendo el modelo que combina la Clinical Frailty Scale y el modified Frailty Index el que ha demostrado mayor discriminación (ABC: 0,84). Conclusiones: La fragilidad puede complementar al APACHE II mejorando su predicción de mortalidad hospitalaria. Además, ofrece una buena predicción de la mortalidad a los 6 meses de la cirugía. Para la mortalidad en UCI, la fragilidad pierde su poder de predicción mientras que el APACHE II aislado muestra una excelente capacidad predictiva (AU)
Objective: To analyze whether frailty can improve the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery. Design: Prospective, observational, 6-month follow-up study of a cohort of patients admitted to the ICU between June 1, 2018, and June 1, 2019. Setting: Surgical ICU of a third level hospital. Patients: Series of successive patients older than 70 years who were admitted to the ICU immediately after a surgical intervention on the digestive system. 92 patients were included and 2 were excluded due to loss of follow-up at 6 months. Interventions: Upon admission to the ICU, severity and prognosis were assessed by APACHE II, and fragility by the Clinical Frailty Scale and the modified Frailty Index. Main variables of interest: ICU, in-hospital and 6-month mortality. Results: The model that best predicts mortality in the ICU is the APACHE II, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89 and a good calibration. The model that combines APACHE II and Clinical Frailty Scale is the one that best predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.82), significantly improving the prediction of isolated APACHE II (AUC: 0.78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0.04). Frailty is a predictor of mortality at 6 months, being the model that combines Clinical Frailty Scale and Frailty Index the one that has shown the greatest discrimination (AUC: 0.84). Conclusions: Frailty can complement APACHE II by improving its prediction of hospital mortality. Furthermore, it offers a good prediction of mortality 6 months after surgery. For mortality in ICU, frailty loses its predictive power, whereas isolated APACHE II shows excellent predictive capacity (AU)
Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Idoso Fragilizado , Fragilidade , APACHE , Estudos Prospectivos , Seguimentos , Valor Preditivo dos TestesRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether frailty can improve the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, 6-month follow-up study of a cohort of patients admitted to the ICU between June 1, 2018, and June 1, 2019. SETTING: Surgical ICU of a third level hospital. PATIENTS: Series of successive patients older than 70 years who were admitted to the ICU immediately after a surgical intervention on the digestive system. 92 patients were included and 2 were excluded due to loss of follow-up at 6 months. INTERVENTIONS: Upon admission to the ICU, severity and prognosis were assessed by APACHE II, and fragility by the Clinical Frailty Scale and the modified Frailty Index. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: ICU, in-hospital and 6-month mortality. RESULTS: The model that best predicts mortality in the ICU is the APACHE II, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89 and a good calibration. The model that combines APACHE II and Clinical Frailty Scale is the one that best predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.82), significantly improving the prediction of isolated APACHE II (AUC: 0.78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0.04). Frailty is a predictor of mortality at 6 months, being the model that combines Clinical Frailty Scale and Frailty Index the one that has shown the greatest discrimination (AUC: 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty can complement APACHE II by improving its prediction of hospital mortality. Furthermore, it offers a good prediction of mortality 6 months after surgery. For mortality in ICU, frailty loses its predictive power, whereas isolated APACHE II shows excellent predictive capacity.
Assuntos
Fragilidade , APACHE , Idoso , Seguimentos , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Estudos ProspectivosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether frailty can improve the prediction of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after digestive surgery. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, 6-month follow-up study of a cohort of patients admitted to the ICU between June 1, 2018, and June 1, 2019. SETTING: Surgical ICU of a third level hospital. PATIENTS: Series of successive patients older than 70 years who were admitted to the ICU immediately after a surgical intervention on the digestive system. 92 patients were included and 2 were excluded due to loss of follow-up at 6 months. INTERVENTIONS: Upon admission to the ICU, severity and prognosis were assessed by APACHE II, and fragility by the Clinical Frailty Scale and the modified Frailty Index. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: ICU, in-hospital and 6-month mortality. RESULTS: The model that best predicts mortality in the ICU is the APACHE II, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.89 and a good calibration. The model that combines APACHE II and Clinical Frailty Scale is the one that best predicts in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.82), significantly improving the prediction of isolated APACHE II (AUC: 0.78; Integrated Discrimination Index: 0.04). Frailty is a predictor of mortality at 6 months, being the model that combines Clinical Frailty Scale and Frailty Index the one that has shown the greatest discrimination (AUC: 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty can complement APACHE II by improving its prediction of hospital mortality. Furthermore, it offers a good prediction of mortality 6 months after surgery. For mortality in ICU, frailty loses its predictive power, whereas isolated APACHE II shows excellent predictive capacity.
