The role of APOBEC3B in lung tumor evolution and targeted cancer therapy resistance.

In this study, the impact of the apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing catalytic subunit-like (APOBEC) enzyme APOBEC3B (A3B) on epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-driven lung cancer was assessed. A3B expression in EGFR mutant (EGFRmut) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) mouse models constrained tumorigenesis, while A3B expression in tumors treated with EGFR-targeted cancer therapy was associated with treatment resistance. Analyses of human NSCLC models treated with EGFR-targeted therapy showed upregulation of A3B and revealed therapy-induced activation of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) as an inducer of A3B expression. Significantly reduced viability was observed with A3B deficiency, and A3B was required for the enrichment of APOBEC mutation signatures, in targeted therapy-treated human NSCLC preclinical models. Upregulation of A3B was confirmed in patients with NSCLC treated with EGFR-targeted therapy. This study uncovers the multifaceted roles of A3B in NSCLC and identifies A3B as a potential target for more durable responses to targeted cancer therapy.

Integrated transcriptome landscape of ALS identifies genome instability linked to TDP-43 pathology.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) causes motor neuron degeneration, with 97% of cases exhibiting TDP-43 proteinopathy. Elucidating pathomechanisms has been hampered by disease heterogeneity and difficulties accessing motor neurons. Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived motor neurons (iPSMNs) offer a solution; however, studies have typically been limited to underpowered cohorts. Here, we present a comprehensive compendium of 429 iPSMNs from 15 datasets, and 271 post-mortem spinal cord samples. Using reproducible bioinformatic workflows, we identify robust upregulation of p53 signalling in ALS in both iPSMNs and post-mortem spinal cord. p53 activation is greatest with C9orf72 repeat expansions but is weakest with SOD1 and FUS mutations. TDP-43 depletion potentiates p53 activation in both post-mortem neuronal nuclei and cell culture, thereby functionally linking p53 activation with TDP-43 depletion. ALS iPSMNs and post-mortem tissue display enrichment of splicing alterations, somatic mutations, and gene fusions, possibly contributing to the DNA damage response.

Tracking early lung cancer metastatic dissemination in TRACERx using ctDNA.

Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) can be used to detect and profile residual tumour cells persisting after curative intent therapy1. The study of large patient cohorts incorporating longitudinal plasma sampling and extended follow-up is required to determine the role of ctDNA as a phylogenetic biomarker of relapse in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here we developed ctDNA methods tracking a median of 200 mutations identified in resected NSCLC tissue across 1,069 plasma samples collected from 197 patients enrolled in the TRACERx study2. A lack of preoperative ctDNA detection distinguished biologically indolent lung adenocarcinoma with good clinical outcome. Postoperative plasma analyses were interpreted within the context of standard-of-care radiological surveillance and administration of cytotoxic adjuvant therapy. Landmark analyses of plasma samples collected within 120 days after surgery revealed ctDNA detection in 25% of patients, including 49% of all patients who experienced clinical relapse; 3 to 6 monthly ctDNA surveillance identified impending disease relapse in an additional 20% of landmark-negative patients. We developed a bioinformatic tool (ECLIPSE) for non-invasive tracking of subclonal architecture at low ctDNA levels. ECLIPSE identified patients with polyclonal metastatic dissemination, which was associated with a poor clinical outcome. By measuring subclone cancer cell fractions in preoperative plasma, we found that subclones seeding future metastases were significantly more expanded compared with non-metastatic subclones. Our findings will support (neo)adjuvant trial advances and provide insights into the process of metastatic dissemination using low-ctDNA-level liquid biopsy.

Evolutionary characterization of lung adenocarcinoma morphology in TRACERx.

Lung adenocarcinomas (LUADs) display a broad histological spectrum from low-grade lepidic tumors through to mid-grade acinar and papillary and high-grade solid, cribriform and micropapillary tumors. How morphology reflects tumor evolution and disease progression is poorly understood. Whole-exome sequencing data generated from 805 primary tumor regions and 121 paired metastatic samples across 248 LUADs from the TRACERx 421 cohort, together with RNA-sequencing data from 463 primary tumor regions, were integrated with detailed whole-tumor and regional histopathological analysis. Tumors with predominantly high-grade patterns showed increased chromosomal complexity, with higher burden of loss of heterozygosity and subclonal somatic copy number alterations. Individual regions in predominantly high-grade pattern tumors exhibited higher proliferation and lower clonal diversity, potentially reflecting large recent subclonal expansions. Co-occurrence of truncal loss of chromosomes 3p and 3q was enriched in predominantly low-/mid-grade tumors, while purely undifferentiated solid-pattern tumors had a higher frequency of truncal arm or focal 3q gains and SMARCA4 gene alterations compared with mixed-pattern tumors with a solid component, suggesting distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clonal evolution analysis revealed that tumors tend to evolve toward higher-grade patterns. The presence of micropapillary pattern and 'tumor spread through air spaces' were associated with intrathoracic recurrence, in contrast to the presence of solid/cribriform patterns, necrosis and preoperative circulating tumor DNA detection, which were associated with extra-thoracic recurrence. These data provide insights into the relationship between LUAD morphology, the underlying evolutionary genomic landscape, and clinical and anatomical relapse risk.

Body composition and lung cancer-associated cachexia in TRACERx.

Cancer-associated cachexia (CAC) is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in individuals with non-small cell lung cancer. Key features of CAC include alterations in body composition and body weight. Here, we explore the association between body composition and body weight with survival and delineate potential biological processes and mediators that contribute to the development of CAC. Computed tomography-based body composition analysis of 651 individuals in the TRACERx (TRAcking non-small cell lung Cancer Evolution through therapy (Rx)) study suggested that individuals in the bottom 20th percentile of the distribution of skeletal muscle or adipose tissue area at the time of lung cancer diagnosis, had significantly shorter lung cancer-specific survival and overall survival. This finding was validated in 420 individuals in the independent Boston Lung Cancer Study. Individuals classified as having developed CAC according to one or more features at relapse encompassing loss of adipose or muscle tissue, or body mass index-adjusted weight loss were found to have distinct tumor genomic and transcriptomic profiles compared with individuals who did not develop such features. Primary non-small cell lung cancers from individuals who developed CAC were characterized by enrichment of inflammatory signaling and epithelial-mesenchymal transitional pathways, and differentially expressed genes upregulated in these tumors included cancer-testis antigen MAGEA6 and matrix metalloproteinases, such as ADAMTS3. In an exploratory proteomic analysis of circulating putative mediators of cachexia performed in a subset of 110 individuals from TRACERx, a significant association between circulating GDF15 and loss of body weight, skeletal muscle and adipose tissue was identified at relapse, supporting the potential therapeutic relevance of targeting GDF15 in the management of CAC.

Genomic-transcriptomic evolution in lung cancer and metastasis.

Intratumour heterogeneity (ITH) fuels lung cancer evolution, which leads to immune evasion and resistance to therapy1. Here, using paired whole-exome and RNA sequencing data, we investigate intratumour transcriptomic diversity in 354 non-small cell lung cancer tumours from 347 out of the first 421 patients prospectively recruited into the TRACERx study2,3. Analyses of 947 tumour regions, representing both primary and metastatic disease, alongside 96 tumour-adjacent normal tissue samples implicate the transcriptome as a major source of phenotypic variation. Gene expression levels and ITH relate to patterns of positive and negative selection during tumour evolution. We observe frequent copy number-independent allele-specific expression that is linked to epigenomic dysfunction. Allele-specific expression can also result in genomic-transcriptomic parallel evolution, which converges on cancer gene disruption. We extract signatures of RNA single-base substitutions and link their aetiology to the activity of the RNA-editing enzymes ADAR and APOBEC3A, thereby revealing otherwise undetected ongoing APOBEC activity in tumours. Characterizing the transcriptomes of primary-metastatic tumour pairs, we combine multiple machine-learning approaches that leverage genomic and transcriptomic variables to link metastasis-seeding potential to the evolutionary context of mutations and increased proliferation within primary tumour regions. These results highlight the interplay between the genome and transcriptome in influencing ITH, lung cancer evolution and metastasis.

The evolution of non-small cell lung cancer metastases in TRACERx.

Metastatic disease is responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths1. We report the longitudinal evolutionary analysis of 126 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tumours from 421 prospectively recruited patients in TRACERx who developed metastatic disease, compared with a control cohort of 144 non-metastatic tumours. In 25% of cases, metastases diverged early, before the last clonal sweep in the primary tumour, and early divergence was enriched for patients who were smokers at the time of initial diagnosis. Simulations suggested that early metastatic divergence more frequently occurred at smaller tumour diameters (less than 8 mm). Single-region primary tumour sampling resulted in 83% of late divergence cases being misclassified as early, highlighting the importance of extensive primary tumour sampling. Polyclonal dissemination, which was associated with extrathoracic disease recurrence, was found in 32% of cases. Primary lymph node disease contributed to metastatic relapse in less than 20% of cases, representing a hallmark of metastatic potential rather than a route to subsequent recurrences/disease progression. Metastasis-seeding subclones exhibited subclonal expansions within primary tumours, probably reflecting positive selection. Our findings highlight the importance of selection in metastatic clone evolution within untreated primary tumours, the distinction between monoclonal versus polyclonal seeding in dictating site of recurrence, the limitations of current radiological screening approaches for early diverging tumours and the need to develop strategies to target metastasis-seeding subclones before relapse.

The evolution of lung cancer and impact of subclonal selection in TRACERx.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide1. Here we analysed 1,644 tumour regions sampled at surgery or during follow-up from the first 421 patients with non-small cell lung cancer prospectively enrolled into the TRACERx study. This project aims to decipher lung cancer evolution and address the primary study endpoint: determining the relationship between intratumour heterogeneity and clinical outcome. In lung adenocarcinoma, mutations in 22 out of 40 common cancer genes were under significant subclonal selection, including classical tumour initiators such as TP53 and KRAS. We defined evolutionary dependencies between drivers, mutational processes and whole genome doubling (WGD) events. Despite patients having a history of smoking, 8% of lung adenocarcinomas lacked evidence of tobacco-induced mutagenesis. These tumours also had similar detection rates for EGFR mutations and for RET, ROS1, ALK and MET oncogenic isoforms compared with tumours in never-smokers, which suggests that they have a similar aetiology and pathogenesis. Large subclonal expansions were associated with positive subclonal selection. Patients with tumours harbouring recent subclonal expansions, on the terminus of a phylogenetic branch, had significantly shorter disease-free survival. Subclonal WGD was detected in 19% of tumours, and 10% of tumours harboured multiple subclonal WGDs in parallel. Subclonal, but not truncal, WGD was associated with shorter disease-free survival. Copy number heterogeneity was associated with extrathoracic relapse within 1 year after surgery. These data demonstrate the importance of clonal expansion, WGD and copy number instability in determining the timing and patterns of relapse in non-small cell lung cancer and provide a comprehensive clinical cancer evolutionary data resource.

Antibodies against endogenous retroviruses promote lung cancer immunotherapy.

B cells are frequently found in the margins of solid tumours as organized follicles in ectopic lymphoid organs called tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS)1,2. Although TLS have been found to correlate with improved patient survival and response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB), the underlying mechanisms of this association remain elusive1,2. Here we investigate lung-resident B cell responses in patients from the TRACERx 421 (Tracking Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Evolution Through Therapy) and other lung cancer cohorts, and in a recently established immunogenic mouse model for lung adenocarcinoma3. We find that both human and mouse lung adenocarcinomas elicit local germinal centre responses and tumour-binding antibodies, and further identify endogenous retrovirus (ERV) envelope glycoproteins as a dominant anti-tumour antibody target. ERV-targeting B cell responses are amplified by ICB in both humans and mice, and by targeted inhibition of KRAS(G12C) in the mouse model. ERV-reactive antibodies exert anti-tumour activity that extends survival in the mouse model, and ERV expression predicts the outcome of ICB in human lung adenocarcinoma. Finally, we find that effective immunotherapy in the mouse model requires CXCL13-dependent TLS formation. Conversely, therapeutic CXCL13 treatment potentiates anti-tumour immunity and synergizes with ICB. Our findings provide a possible mechanistic basis for the association of TLS with immunotherapy response.

Lung adenocarcinoma promotion by air pollutants.

A complete understanding of how exposure to environmental substances promotes cancer formation is lacking. More than 70 years ago, tumorigenesis was proposed to occur in a two-step process: an initiating step that induces mutations in healthy cells, followed by a promoter step that triggers cancer development1. Here we propose that environmental particulate matter measuring ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), known to be associated with lung cancer risk, promotes lung cancer by acting on cells that harbour pre-existing oncogenic mutations in healthy lung tissue. Focusing on EGFR-driven lung cancer, which is more common in never-smokers or light smokers, we found a significant association between PM2.5 levels and the incidence of lung cancer for 32,957 EGFR-driven lung cancer cases in four within-country cohorts. Functional mouse models revealed that air pollutants cause an influx of macrophages into the lung and release of interleukin-1ß. This process results in a progenitor-like cell state within EGFR mutant lung alveolar type II epithelial cells that fuels tumorigenesis. Ultradeep mutational profiling of histologically normal lung tissue from 295 individuals across 3 clinical cohorts revealed oncogenic EGFR and KRAS driver mutations in 18% and 53% of healthy tissue samples, respectively. These findings collectively support a tumour-promoting role for  PM2.5 air pollutants  and provide impetus for public health policy initiatives to address air pollution to reduce disease burden.

Social isolation and group size are associated with divergent gene expression in the brain of ant queens.

Social life and isolation pose a complex suite of challenges to organisms prompting significant changes in neural state. However, plasticity in how brains respond to social challenges remains largely unexplored. The fire ants Solenopsis invicta provide an ideal scenario for examining this. Fire ant queens may found colonies individually or in groups of up to 30 queens, depending on key factors such as density of newly mated queens and availability of nesting sites. We artificially manipulated availability of nesting sites to test how the brain responds to social versus solitary colony founding at two key timepoints (early vs. late colony founding) and to group size (large vs. small groups). We adopted a powerful neurogenomic approach to identify even subtle differences of gene expression between treatment groups, and we built a global gene co-expression network of the fire ant brain to identify gene modules specifically associated with the different components of the social environment. The difference between group and single founding queens involves only one gene when founding behavior is still plastic and queens can switch from one modality to another, while hundreds of genes are involved later in the process, when behaviors have lost the initial plasticity and are more canalized. Furthermore, we find that large groups are associated with greater changes in gene expression than small groups, showing that even potentially subtle differences in the social environment can be linked to different neurogenomic states.

Using DNA sequencing data to quantify T cell fraction and therapy response.

The immune microenvironment influences tumour evolution and can be both prognostic and predict response to immunotherapy1,2. However, measurements of tumour infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are limited by a shortage of appropriate data. Whole-exome sequencing (WES) of DNA is frequently performed to calculate tumour mutational burden and identify actionable mutations. Here we develop T cell exome TREC tool (T cell ExTRECT), a method for estimation of T cell fraction from WES samples using a signal from T cell receptor excision circle (TREC) loss during V(D)J recombination of the T cell receptor-α gene (TCRA (also known as TRA)). TCRA T cell fraction correlates with orthogonal TIL estimates and is agnostic to sample type. Blood TCRA T cell fraction is higher in females than in males and correlates with both tumour immune infiltrate and presence of bacterial sequencing reads. Tumour TCRA T cell fraction is prognostic in lung adenocarcinoma. Using a meta-analysis of tumours treated with immunotherapy, we show that tumour TCRA T cell fraction predicts immunotherapy response, providing value beyond measuring tumour mutational burden. Applying T cell ExTRECT to a multi-sample pan-cancer cohort reveals a high diversity of the degree of immune infiltration within tumours. Subclonal loss of 12q24.31-32, encompassing SPPL3, is associated with reduced TCRA T cell fraction. T cell ExTRECT provides a cost-effective technique to characterize immune infiltrate alongside somatic changes.

Acute portal vein thrombosis in mild cholecystitis. A consequence of coronavirus disease 2019 infection?

La infección por el virus SARS-CoV-2 provoca, además de cuadros respiratorios graves, episodios trombóticos en múltiples localizaciones debido a una mala regulación de la respuesta inmune. Presentamos el caso de un paciente con colecistitis incipiente que desarrolló trombosis portal aguda sin ningún otro antecedente salvo haber pasado de forma asintomática una infección por COVID-19. Dado que esta complicación es extremadamente infrecuente en pacientes sin factores predisponentes ni infecciones graves, consideramos que la infección por COVID-19 pudo ser un factor desencadenante de la trombosis portal y debemos de tenerlo en cuenta de cara al manejo y tratamiento de futuros casos similares.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2019 infection causes, in addition to severe respiratory symptoms, thrombotic episodes in multiple locations due to dysregulation of the immune response. We present the case of a patient with incipient cholecystitis who developed acute portal thrombosis with no other antecedents except having passed an asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Since this complication is extremely rare in patients without predisposing factors or serious infections, we consider that COVID-19 infection could be a triggering factor for portal thrombosis and we must take it into account in the management and treatment of future similar cases.

Genomic architecture and evolutionary antagonism drive allelic expression bias in the social supergene of red fire ants.

Supergene regions maintain alleles of multiple genes in tight linkage through suppressed recombination. Despite their importance in determining complex phenotypes, our empirical understanding of early supergene evolution is limited. Here we focus on the young 'social' supergene of fire ants, a powerful system for disentangling the effects of evolutionary antagonism and suppressed recombination. We hypothesize that gene degeneration and social antagonism shaped the evolution of the fire ant supergene, resulting in distinct patterns of gene expression. We test these ideas by identifying allelic differences between supergene variants, characterizing allelic expression across populations, castes and body parts, and contrasting allelic expression biases with differences in expression between social forms. We find strong signatures of gene degeneration and gene-specific dosage compensation. On this background, a small portion of the genes has the signature of adaptive responses to evolutionary antagonism between social forms.

Red fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) are native to South America, but the species has spread to North America, Australia and New Zealand where it can be an invasive pest. A reason for this species' invasiveness types of colonies : one with a single egg-laying queen and another with several queens. However, it is not possible to simply add more queens to a colony with one queen. Instead, the number of queens in a colony is controlled genetically, by a chromosome known as the 'social chromosome'. Like many other animals, red fire ants are diploid: their cells have two copies of each chromosome, which can carry two different versions of each gene. The social chromosome is no different, and it comes in two variants, SB and Sb. Each ant can therefore have either two SB chromosomes, leading to a colony with a single queen; or one SB chromosome and one Sb chromosome, leading to a colony with multiple queens. Ants with two copies of the Sb variant die when they are young, so the Sb version is inherited in a similar way to how the Y chromosome is passed on in humans. However, the social chromosome in red fire ants appeared less than one million years ago, making it much younger than the human Y chromosome, which is 180 million years old. This makes the social chromosome a good candidate for examining the early evolution of special chromosome variants that are only inherited. How differences between the SB and the Sb chromosomes are evolving is an open question, however. Perhaps each version of the social chromosome has been optimised through natural selection to one colony type. Another suggestion is that the Sb chromosome has degenerated over time because its genes cannot be 'reshuffled' as they would be on normal chromosomes. Martinez-Ruiz et al. compared genetic variants on the SB and Sb chromosomes, along with their expression in different types of ant colonies. The analysis showed that the Sb variant is in fact breaking down because of the lack of gene shuffling. This loss is compensated by intact copies of the same genes found on the SB variant, which explains why ants with the Sb variant can only survive if they also carry the SB version. Only a handful of genes on the social chromosomes appear to have been optimised by natural selection. Therefore Martinez-Ruiz et al. concluded the differences between the two chromosomes that lead to different colony types are collateral effects of Sb's inability to reshuffle its genes. This work reveals how a special chromosome similar to the Y chromosome in humans evolved. It also shows how multiple complex evolutionary forces can shape a species' genetic makeup and social forms.

Genes and genomic processes underpinning the social lives of ants.

The >15000 ant species are all highly social and show great variation in colony organization, complexity and behavior. The mechanisms by which such sociality evolved, as well as those underpinning the elaboration of ant societies since their ∼140 million year old common ancestor, have long been pondered. Here, we review recent insights generated using various genomic approaches. This includes understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying caste differentiation and the diversity of social structures, studying the impact of eusociality on genomic evolutionary rates, and investigating gene expression changes associated with differences in lifespan between castes. Furthermore, functional studies involving RNAi and CRISPR have recently been successfully applied to ants, opening the door to exciting research that promises to revolutionize the understanding of the evolution and diversification of social living.

Selective harvest focused on sexual signal traits can lead to extinction under directional environmental change.

Humans commonly harvest animals based on their expression of secondary sexual traits such as horns or antlers. This selective harvest is thought to have little effect on harvested populations because offtake rates are low and usually only the males are targeted. These arguments do not, however, take the relationship between secondary sexual trait expression and animal condition into account: there is increasing evidence that in many cases the degree of expression of such traits is correlated with an animal's overall well-being, which is partly determined by their genetic match to the environment. Using an individual-based model, we find that when there is directional environmental change, selective harvest of males with the largest secondary sexual traits can lead to extinction in otherwise resilient populations. When harvest is not selective, the males best suited to a new environment gain the majority of matings and beneficial alleles spread rapidly. When these best-adapted males are removed, however, their beneficial alleles are lost, leading to extinction. Given the current changes happening globally, these results suggest that trophy hunting and other cases of selective harvest (such as certain types of insect collection) should be managed with extreme care whenever populations are faced with changing conditions.

Failure of fragmented parathyroid gland autotransplantation to prevent permanent hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy.

PURPOSE: Parathyroid autotransplantation during total thyroidectomy leads to higher rates of postoperative hypocalcaemia. It has been argued, however, that it prevents permanent hypoparathyroidism. The impact of autografted normal parathyroid gland fragments on long-term parathyroid status has not been assessed properly. To clarify this, the short- and long-term parathyroid function was assessed in patients with three glands remaining in situ after total thyroidectomy, in whom the fourth gland was either autotransplanted (Tx) or accidentally resected (AR). METHODS: Consecutive patients (n = 669) undergoing first-time total thyroidectomy were prospectively studied recording the number of parathyroid glands remaining in situ: PGRIS =4-(glands autografted + glands in the specimen). The study was focused on the subgroup of 186 patients with three parathyroid glands remaining in situ as a result of either accidental resection (AR, n = 76) or autotransplantation into the sternocleidomastoid muscle (Tx, n = 110). Prevalence of postoperative hypocalcaemia, protracted, and permanent hypoparathyroidism were compared between the two groups. Demographic, disease-related, laboratory, and surgical variables were recorded. All patients were followed for at least 1 year. RESULTS: Both groups were comparable in terms of disease and extent of surgery. Mean postoperative serum calcium was the same (AR: 1.97 ± 0.2 vs Tx: 1.97 ± 0.22 mmol/L). Rates of protracted (AR: 24% vs Tx: 25.5%) and permanent hypoparathyroidism (AR: 5.3% vs Tx: 7.3%) were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of parathyroid failure syndromes after total thyroidectomy was similar whether a parathyroid gland was inadvertently excised or autotransplanted. Autotransplantation did not influence the permanent hypoparathyroidism rate.

Fire ant social chromosomes: Differences in number, sequence and expression of odorant binding proteins.

Variation in social behavior is common yet our knowledge of the mechanisms underpinning its evolution is limited. The fire ant Solenopsis invicta provides a textbook example of a Mendelian element controlling social organization: alternate alleles of a genetic element first identified as encoding an odorant binding protein (OBP) named Gp-9 determine whether a colony accepts one or multiple queens. The potential roles of such a protein in perceiving olfactory cues and evidence of positive selection on its amino acid sequence made it an appealing candidate gene. However, we recently showed that recombination is suppressed between Gp-9 and hundreds of other genes as part of a >19 Mb supergene-like region carried by a pair of social chromosomes. This finding raises the need to reassess the potential role of Gp-9. We identify 23 OBPs in the fire ant genome assembly, including nine located in the region of suppressed recombination with Gp-9. For six of these, the alleles carried by the two variants of the supergene-like region differ in protein-coding sequence and thus likely in function, with Gp-9 showing the strongest evidence of positive selection. We identify an additional OBP specific to the Sb variant of the region. Finally, we find that 14 OBPs are differentially expressed between single- and multiple-queen colonies. These results are consistent with multiple OBPs playing a role in determining social structure.

Sexual selection can both increase and decrease extinction probability: reconciling demographic and evolutionary factors.

Previous theoretical models of the effect of sexual selection on average individual fitness in a population have mostly predicted that sexually selected populations should adapt faster and clear deleterious mutations more quickly than populations where sexual selection is not operating. While some laboratory studies have supported these predictions, others have not and studies of field systems have tended to find negative effects of sexual selection, or no effect. The negative effects of sexual selection found in field and other studies are usually ascribed to the costs associated with strong sexual selection acting on the population. Here, using an individual-based model that allows feedback between demographic and evolutionary processes, we find that sexual selection can lead to both increases and decreases in population-level fitness measures such as extinction probability and adaptation rate. Whether fitness increases or decreases depends on a variety of environmental and demographic factors including the nature of environmental change, the carrying capacity of the environment, the average fecundity of the population in question and the strength of condition dependence. In many cases, our model predicts that sexual selection leads to higher extinction probability in small populations because of an increased risk of demographic stochasticity, but lower extinction probability in larger populations because of faster adaptation rates. This is consistent with field studies that have mostly focussed on very small populations such as recently introduced birds, and tend to find negative effects, and also with laboratory studies that tend to use larger populations and have tended to find positive effects. These findings go at least some way towards an understanding of the apparent contradictions between theoretical predictions, laboratory studies and field data.