El cambio climático, la salud humana y el desarrollo sostenible / Climate change, human health, and sustainable development

El cambio climático debido a actividades humanas pone en peligro los ecosistemas y la salud humana a escala mundial. Con el fin de hacer frente a las amenazas que se ciernen sobre los ecosistemas en todo el mundo, en el decenio de 1980 se introdujo el concepto del desarrollo sostenible. Desde entonces, ese concepto se ha aplicado ampliamente para guiar y enfocar la formulación de políticas. En el presente artículo se examinan las consecuencias sanitarias que tiene el cambio climático debido a actividades humanas para el desarrollo sostenible, en particular su posible efecto en el abastecimiento de alimentos, los desastres naturales, las enfermedades infecciosas, los ecosistemas y la elevación del nivel del mar. Se discute un modelo integrado que contiene los principales indicadores del desarrollo sostenible. También se examina la importancia que tienen el cambio climático, la salud humana y el desarrollo sostenible para las políticas internacionales pertinentes.

Human-induced climate change threatens ecosystems and human health on a global scale. In order to withstand the worldwide threats to ecosystems, the concept of sustainable development was introduced during the 1980s. Since then, this concept has been widely applied to guide and focus policy-making. The present article reviews the health consequences of human-induced climate change on sustainable development, particularly the potential impact of such change on food supply, natural disasters, infectious diseases, ecosystems, and sea level rise. Discussed is an integrated model containing the key indicators of sustainable development. The relevance of climate change, human health, and sustainable development for international climate change policy is also examined.

Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.

Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs, the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C, expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities, as well as an increase in global epidemic potential, with the largest area change occurring in temperate regions. For regions already at risk, the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range, 24-74%). If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases.