New York City jails: COVID discharge policy, data transparency, and reform.

During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Mayor Bill de Blasio ordered the release of individuals incarcerated in New York City jails who were at high risk of contracting the disease and at low risk of committing criminal reoffense. Using public information, we construct and analyze a database of nearly 350,000 incarceration episodes in the city jail system from 2014-2020, paying special attention to what happened during the week of March 23-29, 2020, immediately following the mayor's order. In concordance with de Blasio's stated policy, we find that being discharged during this focus week is associated with a lower probability of readmission as compared to being discharged during the same calendar week in previous years. Furthermore, comparing the individuals discharged during the focus week of 2020 to those discharged during the same calendar week in previous years, we find that the former group was, on average, slightly older than the latter group, although the difference is not large. Additionally, the individuals in the former group had spent substantially longer in jail than those in the latter group. With the release of long-serving individuals demonstrated to be feasible, we also examine how the jail population would have looked over the past six years had caps in incarceration been in place. With a cap of one year, the system would experience a 15% decrease in incarceration. With a cap of 100 days, the reduction would be over 50%. Because our results are only as accurate as New York City's public-facing jail data, we discuss numerous challenges with this data and suggest improvements related to the incarcerated individual's age, gender, race, and more. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our work, highlight some opportunities and challenges posed by incarceration caps, and suggest key areas for reform. One such reform might involve identifying and discharging low-risk individuals sooner in general, which might be feasible given the de Blasio administration's actions during the early stages of COVID-19.

Estimating diversity in networked ecological communities.

Comparing ecological communities across environmental gradients can be challenging, especially when the number of different taxonomic groups in the communities is large. In this setting, community-level summaries called diversity indices are widely used to detect changes in the community ecology. However, estimation of diversity indices has received relatively little attention from the statistical community. The most common estimates of diversity are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a multinomial model, even though the multinomial model implies strict assumptions about the sampling mechanism. In particular, the multinomial model prohibits ecological networks, where taxa positively and negatively co-occur. In this article, we leverage models from the compositional data literature that explicitly account for co-occurrence networks and use them to estimate diversity. Instead of proposing new diversity indices, we estimate popular diversity indices under these models. While the methodology is general, we illustrate the approach for the estimation of the Shannon, Simpson, Bray-Curtis, and Euclidean diversity indices. We contrast our method to multinomial, low-rank, and nonparametric methods for estimating diversity indices. Under simulation, we find that the greatest gains of the method are in strongly networked communities with many taxa. Therefore, to illustrate the method, we analyze the microbiome of seafloor basalts based on a 16S amplicon sequencing dataset with 1425 taxa and 12 communities.

MODELING MICROBIAL ABUNDANCES AND DYSBIOSIS WITH BETA-BINOMIAL REGRESSION.

Using a sample from a population to estimate the proportion of the population with a certain category label is a broadly important problem. In the context of microbiome studies, this problem arises when researchers wish to use a sample from a population of microbes to estimate the population proportion of a particular taxon, known as the taxon's relative abundance. In this paper, we propose a beta-binomial model for this task. Like existing models, our model allows for a taxon's relative abundance to be associated with covariates of interest. However, unlike existing models, our proposal also allows for the overdispersion in the taxon's counts to be associated with covariates of interest. We exploit this model in order to propose tests not only for differential relative abundance, but also for differential variability. The latter is particularly valuable in light of speculation that dysbiosis, the perturbation from a normal microbiome that can occur in certain disease conditions, may manifest as a loss of stability, or increase in variability, of the counts associated with each taxon. We demonstrate the performance of our proposed model using a simulation study and an application to soil microbial data.

Fecal dysbiosis in infants with cystic fibrosis is associated with early linear growth failure.

Most infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) have pancreatic exocrine insufficiency that results in nutrient malabsorption and requires oral pancreatic enzyme replacement. Newborn screening for CF has enabled earlier diagnosis, nutritional intervention and enzyme replacement for these infants, allowing most infants with CF to achieve their weight goals by 12 months of age1. Nevertheless, most infants with CF continue to have poor linear growth during their first year of life1. Although this early linear growth failure is associated with worse long-term respiratory function and survival2,3, the determinants of body length in infants with CF have not been defined. Several characteristics of the CF gastrointestinal (GI) tract, including inflammation, maldigestion and malabsorption, may promote intestinal dysbiosis4,5. As GI microbiome activities are known to affect endocrine functions6,7, the intestinal microbiome of infants with CF may also impact growth. We identified an early, progressive fecal dysbiosis that distinguished infants with CF and low length from infants with CF and normal length. This dysbiosis included altered abundances of taxa that perform functions that are important for GI health, nutrient harvest and growth hormone signaling, including decreased abundance of Bacteroidetes and increased abundance of Proteobacteria. Thus, the GI microbiota represent a potential therapeutic target for the correction of low linear growth in infants with CF.

Changes in the spatial distribution of the under-five mortality rate: Small-area analysis of 122 DHS surveys in 262 subregions of 35 countries in Africa.

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a critical and widely available population health indicator. Both the MDGs and SDGs define targets for improvement in the U5MR, and the SDGs require spatial disaggregation of indicators. We estimate trends in the U5MR for Admin-1 subnational areas using 122 DHS surveys in 35 countries in Africa and assess progress toward the MDG target reductions for each subnational region and each country as a whole. In each country, direct weighted estimates of the U5MR from each survey are calculated and combined into a single estimate for each Admin-1 region across five-year periods. Our method fully accounts for the sample design of each survey. The region-time-specific estimates are smoothed using a Bayesian, space-time model that produces more precise estimates (when compared to the direct estimates) at a one-year scale that are consistent with each other in both space and time. The resulting estimated distributions of the U5MR are summarized and used to assess subnational progress toward the MDG 4 target of two-thirds reduction in the U5MR during 1990-2015. Our space-time modeling approach is tractable and can be readily applied to a large collection of sample survey data. Subnational, regional spatial heterogeneity in the levels and trends in the U5MR vary considerably across Africa. There is no generalizable pattern between spatial heterogeneity and levels or trends in the U5MR. Subnational, small-area estimates of the U5MR: (i) identify subnational regions where interventions are still necessary and those where improvement is well under way; and (ii) countries where there is very little spatial variation and others where there are important differences between subregions in both levels and trends. More work is necessary to improve both the data sources and methods necessary to adequately measure subnational progress toward the SDG child survival targets.

Niche Separation Increases With Genetic Distance Among Bloom-Forming Cyanobacteria.

Bacterial communities are composed of distinct groups of potentially interacting lineages, each thought to occupy a distinct ecological niche. It remains unclear, however, how quickly niche preference evolves and whether more closely related lineages are more likely to share ecological niches. We addressed these questions by following the dynamics of two bloom-forming cyanobacterial genera over an 8-year time-course in Lake Champlain, Canada, using 16S amplicon sequencing and measurements of several environmental parameters. The two genera, Microcystis (M) and Dolichospermum (D), are frequently observed simultaneously during bloom events and thus have partially overlapping niches. However, the extent of their niche overlap is debated, and it is also unclear to what extent niche partitioning occurs among strains within each genus. To identify strains within each genus, we applied minimum entropy decomposition (MED) to 16S rRNA gene sequences. We confirmed that at a genus level, M and D have different preferences for nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Within each genus, we also identified strains differentially associated with temperature, precipitation, and concentrations of nutrients and toxins. In general, niche similarity between strains (as measured by co-occurrence over time) declined with genetic distance. This pattern is consistent with habitat filtering - in which closely related taxa are ecologically similar, and therefore tend to co-occur under similar environmental conditions. In contrast with this general pattern, similarity in certain niche dimensions (notably particulate nitrogen and phosphorus) did not decline linearly with genetic distance, and instead showed a complex polynomial relationship. This observation suggests the importance of processes other than habitat filtering - such as competition between closely related taxa, or convergent trait evolution in distantly related taxa - in shaping particular traits in microbial communities.

Methods for Real-Time Prediction of the Mode of Travel Using Smartphone-Based GPS and Accelerometer Data.

We propose and compare combinations of several methods for classifying transportation activity data from smartphone GPS and accelerometer sensors. We have two main objectives. First, we aim to classify our data as accurately as possible. Second, we aim to reduce the dimensionality of the data as much as possible in order to reduce the computational burden of the classification. We combine dimension reduction and classification algorithms and compare them with a metric that balances accuracy and dimensionality. In doing so, we develop a classification algorithm that accurately classifies five different modes of transportation (i.e., walking, biking, car, bus and rail) while being computationally simple enough to run on a typical smartphone. Further, we use data that required no behavioral changes from the smartphone users to collect. Our best classification model uses the random forest algorithm to achieve 96.8% accuracy.