Methodology for the estimation of an oil spill origin: Analysis of the 2019 Brazilian coast oil spill.

This research presents a procedure for determining the origin of marine pollution through the use of a time-direct trajectory modeling, associated with a Kriging metamodel technique and Monte Carlo random sampling. These methods were applied to a real case, specifically the oil spill that affected the Brazilian coast in the second half of 2019 and early 2020. A total of 140 trajectories, defined by the geographical coordinates of the origin and the spill date, were generated through Latin Hypercube Sampling and simulated using the PyGNOME model to construct the Kriging metamodel. The metamodel demonstrated cost-effectiveness by efficiently simulating numerous input data combinations which were compared and optimized based on available real data regarding temporal and spatial pollution distribution.

Towards Interpretable Deep Learning: A Feature Selection Framework for Prognostics and Health Management Using Deep Neural Networks.

In the last five years, the inclusion of Deep Learning algorithms in prognostics and health management (PHM) has led to a performance increase in diagnostics, prognostics, and anomaly detection. However, the lack of interpretability of these models results in resistance towards their deployment. Deep Learning-based models fall within the accuracy/interpretability tradeoff, which means that their complexity leads to high performance levels but lacks interpretability. This work aims at addressing this tradeoff by proposing a technique for feature selection embedded in deep neural networks that uses a feature selection (FS) layer trained with the rest of the network to evaluate the input features' importance. The importance values are used to determine which will be considered for deployment of a PHM model. For comparison with other techniques, this paper introduces a new metric called ranking quality score (RQS), that measures how performance evolves while following the corresponding ranking. The proposed framework is exemplified with three case studies involving health state diagnostics and prognostics and remaining useful life prediction. Results show that the proposed technique achieves higher RQS than the compared techniques, while maintaining the same performance level when compared to the same model but without an FS layer.

A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê-Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion.

The market share of Tietê-Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though an expressive accident history is available, a frequentist approach is not suitable due to differences between current operational conditions and those met in the past. Therefore, a subjective assessment is an option as allows for working independently of the historical data, thus delivering more reliable results. In this context, this article proposes a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of undesired events based on expert opinion combined with fuzzy analysis. This methodology defines a criterion to weighting the experts and, using the fuzzy logic, evaluates the similarities among the experts' beliefs to be used in the aggregation process before the defuzzification that quantifies the probability of occurrence of the events based on the experts' opinion. Moreover, the proposed methodology is applied to the real case of the TPIW and the results obtained from the elicited experts are compared with a frequentist approach evidencing the impact on the results when considering different interpretations of the probability.

A methodology for risk analysis based on hybrid Bayesian networks: application to the regasification system of liquefied natural gas onboard a floating storage and regasification unit.

This article presents an iterative six-step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.

Human error contribution in collision and grounding of oil tankers.

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the "Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the "International Safety Management Code" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.