Effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Doses against Omicron and Delta-Related Outpatient Illness among Adults, October 2021 - February 2022

BackgroundWe estimated SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron-specific effectiveness of 2 and 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses in adults against symptomatic illness in US outpatient settings. MethodsBetween October 1, 2021, and February 12, 2022, research staff consented and enrolled eligible participants who had fever, cough, or loss of taste or smell and sought outpatient medical care or clinical SARS-CoV-2 testing within 10 days of illness onset. Using the test-negative design, we compared the odds of receiving 2 or 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses among SARS-CoV-2 cases versus controls using logistic regression. Regression models were adjusted for study site, age, onset week, and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) x 100%. ResultsAmong 3847 participants included for analysis, 574 (32%) of 1775 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the Delta predominant period and 1006 (56%) of 1794 participants tested positive during the Omicron predominant period. When Delta predominated, VE against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings was 63% (95% CI: 51% to 72%) among mRNA 2-dose recipients and 96% (95% CI: 93% to 98%) for 3-dose recipients. When Omicron predominated, VE was 21% (95% CI: -6% to 41%) among 2-dose recipients and 62% (95% CI: 48% to 72%) among 3-dose recipients. ConclusionsIn this adult population, 3 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses provided substantial protection against symptomatic illness in outpatient settings when the Omicron variant became the predominant cause of COVID-19 in the U.S. These findings support the recommendation for a 3rd mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.

Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Persons Aged >=12 Years with Reported Contact with COVID-19 Cases, February - September 2021

Individuals in contact with persons with COVID-19 are at high risk of developing COVID-19, but protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines in the context of known exposure is unknown. Symptomatic outpatients reporting acute onset of COVID-19-like illness and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Among 2,229 participants, 283/451 (63%) of those reporting contact and 331/1778 (19%) without known contact tested SARS-CoV-2 positive. Using the test-negative design, adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71% (95% confidence interval, 49%-83%) among fully vaccinated participants reporting contact versus 80% (95% CI, 72%-86%) among those without. This study supports COVID-19 vaccination and highlights the importance of efforts to increase vaccination coverage.

mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Outpatients Aged >=16 Years in the United States, February to May 2021

Evaluations of vaccine effectiveness (VE) are important to monitor as COVID-19 vaccines are introduced in the general population. Research staff enrolled symptomatic participants seeking outpatient medical care for COVID-19-like illness or SARS-CoV-2 testing from a multisite network. VE was evaluated using the test-negative design. Among 236 SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test-positive and 576 test-negative participants aged [≥]16 years, VE of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI: 83-95) for full vaccination and 75% (95% CI: 55-87) for partial vaccination. Vaccination was associated with prevention of most COVID-19 cases among people seeking outpatient medical care.

Clinical symptoms among ambulatory patients tested for SARS-CoV-2

We compared symptoms and characteristics of 4961 ambulatory patients with and without laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Findings indicate that clinical symptoms alone would be insufficient to distinguish between COVID-19 and other respiratory infections (e.g., influenza) and/or to evaluate the effects of preventive interventions (e.g., vaccinations).

Proposed Clinical Indicators for Efficient Screening and Testing for COVID-19 Infection from Classification and Regression Trees (CART) Analysis

BackgroundThe introduction and rapid transmission of SARS CoV2 in the United States resulted in implementation of methods to assess, mitigate and contain the resulting COVID-19 disease based on limited knowledge. Screening for testing has been based on symptoms typically observed in inpatients, yet outpatient symptom complexes may differ. MethodsClassification and regression trees (CART) recursive partitioning created a decision tree classifying enrollees into laboratory-confirmed cases and non-cases. Demographic and symptom data from patients ages 18-87 years who were enrolled from March 29-April 26, 2020 were included. Presence or absence of SARSCoV2 was the target variable. ResultsOf 736 tested, 55 were positive for SARS-CoV2. Cases significantly more often reported chills, loss of taste/smell, diarrhea, fever, nausea/vomiting and contact with a COVID-19 case, but less frequently reported shortness of breath and sore throat. A 7-terminal node tree with a sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 53%, and an AUC of 78% was developed. The positive predictive value for this tree was 14% while the negative predictive value was 99%. Almost half (44%) of the participants could be ruled out as likely non-cases without testing. DiscussionAmong those referred for testing, negative responses to three questions could classify about half of tested persons with low risk for SARS-CoV2 and would save limited testing resources. These questions are: was the patient in contact with a COVID-19 case? Has the patient experienced 1) a loss of taste or smell; or 2) nausea or vomiting? The outpatient symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be broader than the well-known inpatient syndrome.