Estimating birth weight from observed postnatal weights in a Guatemalan highland community.

OBJECTIVE: Low birth weight is one of the leading contributors to global perinatal deaths. Detecting this problem close to birth enables the initiation of early intervention, thus reducing the long-term impact on the fetus. However, in low-and middle-income countries, sometimes newborns are weighted days or months after birth, thus challenging the identification of low birth weight. This study aims to estimate birth weight from observed postnatal weights recorded in a Guatemalan highland community. APPROACH: With 918 newborns recorded in postpartum visits at a Guatemalan highland community, we fitted traditional infant weight models (Count's and Reeds models). The model that fitted the observed data best was selected based on typical newborn weight patterns reported in the medical literature and previous longitudinal studies. Then, estimated birth weights were determined using the weight gain percentage derived from the fitted weight curve. MAIN RESULTS: The best model for both genders was the Reeds2 model, with a mean square error of 0.30 kg2 and 0.23 kg2 for male and female newborns, respectively. The fitted weight curves exhibited similar behavior to those reported in the literature, with a maximum weight loss around three to five days after birth, and birth weight recovery, on average, by day ten. Moreover, the estimated birth weight was consistent with the 2015 Guatemalan National Survey, no having a statistically significant difference between the estimated birth weight and the reported survey birth weights (two-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum test; [Formula: see text]). SIGNIFICANCE: By estimating birth weight at an opportune time, several days after birth, it may be possible to identify low birth weight more accurately, thus providing timely treatment when is required.

A Proxy for Detecting IUGR Based on Gestational Age Estimation in a Guatemalan Rural Population.

In-utero progress of fetal development is normally assessed through manual measurements taken from ultrasound images, requiring relatively expensive equipment and well-trained personnel. Such monitoring is therefore unavailable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where most of the perinatal mortality and morbidity exists. The work presented here attempts to identify a proxy for IUGR, which is a significant contributor to perinatal death in LMICs, by determining gestational age (GA) from data derived from simple-to-use, low-cost one-dimensional Doppler ultrasound (1D-DUS) and blood pressure devices. A total of 114 paired 1D-DUS recordings and maternal blood pressure recordings were selected, based on previously described signal quality measures. The average length of 1D-DUS recording was 10.43 ± 1.41 min. The min/median/max systolic and diastolic maternal blood pressures were 79/102/121 and 50.5/63.5/78.5 mmHg, respectively. GA was estimated using features derived from the 1D-DUS and maternal blood pressure using a support vector regression (SVR) approach and GA based on the last menstrual period as a reference target. A total of 50 trials of 5-fold cross-validation were performed for feature selection. The final SVR model was retrained on the training data and then tested on a held-out set comprising 28 normal weight and 25 low birth weight (LBW) newborns. The mean absolute GA error with respect to the last menstrual period was found to be 0.72 and 1.01 months for the normal and LBW newborns, respectively. The mean error in the GA estimate was shown to be negatively correlated with the birth weight. Thus, if the estimated GA is lower than the (remembered) GA calculated from last menstruation, then this could be interpreted as a potential sign of IUGR associated with LBW, and referral and intervention may be necessary. The assessment system may, therefore, have an immediate impact if coupled with suitable intervention, such as nutritional supplementation. However, a prospective clinical trial is required to show the efficacy of such a metric in the detection of IUGR and the impact of the intervention.