Is a Food Shortage Coming to the Western Balkans?

In the wake of the international food crisis, many countries are paying more attention to food self-sufficiency to protect themselves from instability in the global food markets. Western Balkan region and the rest of the world are facing an array of challenges, including inflation and rising food prices. Recognizing the importance of producing sufficient food to cover a country's needs in circumstances of increasing risk of trade disruptions due to war or political tensions, this article aims to find the level of food self-sufficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The self-sufficiency ratio is calculated for different food groups and individual products over a 14-year period (2006-2019) based on the FAO data and calculation method. Also, using panel data, the impact of different factors-arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency, temperature change, precipitation, and GDP per capita change-on cereals self-sufficiency is estimated. Results showed that in the covered pre-crisis period, the Western Balkans achieved a satisfactory level of food self-sufficiency, suggesting that the region is ready to respond to future challenges. Four indicators positively and significantly affect cereal self-sufficiency: arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency and GDP per capita change, while one indicator-temperature change-had a negative and significant effect. This article can serve as a basis for post-crisis research on the topic.

Export Competitiveness of Agri-Food Sector during the EU Integration Process: Evidence from the Western Balkans.

Trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) significantly influenced the liberalisation of agri-food products in Western Balkan (WB) countries. In all Western Balkan countries, there has been an intensification of the trade of agri-food products and a partial change in the regional and commodity structures of trade. This paper aims to identify comparative advantages of agri-food sectors and consider its tendencies during the EU integration process. Additionally, this paper will discuss some opportunities for improvement of the export positions of agri-food products. In that context and based on the literature review, the indexes of revealed comparative advantages and its modified version will be used as a main method for analysis in this research. Results showed that all Western Balkan countries, except Albania, have comparative advantages in exporting agri-food products. It is evident that Serbia has the highest level of comparative advantages in this sector. Moreover, this paper suggests that all countries should aim to provide the best possible positions for their agri-food products during pre-accession negotiations for EU membership and take the necessary steps towards increasing the level of competitiveness in the common EU market.