RESUMO
Background: There is emphasis on timely administration of thrombolysis and clot retrieval but not antithrombotic therapy within 48 h for ischemic stroke (frequency of 64% in Australia and 97% in North America). We planned to assess the time metrics and variables associated with delaying antithrombotics (antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapy) administration. Methods: This was a retrospective study at Monash Health over 12 months in 2015. We plotted the cumulative event and mapped the key drivers (dimensionless variable Shapley value/SV) of antithrombotics. Results: There were 42 patients with transient ischemic attack/TIA and 483 with ischemic stroke [mean age was 71.8 ± 15.4; 56.0% male; nil by mouth (NBM) 74.5 and 49.3% of patients received "stat" (immediate and one off) dose antithrombotics]. The median time to imaging for the patients who did not have stroke code activated was 2.3 h (IQR 1.4-3.7), from imaging to dysphagia screen was 14.6 h (IQR 6.2-20.3), and from stopping NBM to antithrombotics was 1.7 h (IQR 0-16.5). TIA patients received antithrombotics earlier than those with ischemic stroke (90.5 vs. 86.5%, p = 0.01). Significant variables in regression analysis for time to antithrombotics were time to dysphagia screen (ß 0.20 ± 0.03, SV = 3.2), nasogastric tube (ß 19.8 ± 5.9, SV = -0.20), Alteplase (ß 8.6 ± 3.6, SV = -1.9), stat dose antithrombotic (ß -18.9 ± 2.9, SV = -10.8) and stroke code (ß -5.9 ± 2.5, SV = 2.8). The partial correlation network showed that the time to antithrombotics increased with delay in dysphagia screen (coefficient = 0.33) and decreased if "stat" dose of antithrombotics was given (coefficient = -0.32). Conclusion: The proportion of patients receiving antithrombotics within 48 h was higher than previously reported in Australia but remained lower than the standard achieved in North American hospitals. Our process map and network analysis show avenues to shorten the time to antithrombotic.
RESUMO
Background and Purpose: Post-stroke pneumonia is a feared complication of stroke as it is associated with greater mortality and disability than in those without pneumonia. Patients are often kept "Nil By Mouth" (NBM) after stroke until after receiving a screen for dysphagia and declared safe to resume oral intake. We aimed to assess the proportional contribution of stroke severity and dysphagia screen to pneumonia by borrowing idea from coalition game theory on fair distribution of marginal profit (Shapley value). Method: Retrospective study of admissions to the stroke unit at Monash Medical Center in 2015. Seventy-five percent of data were partitioned into training set and the remainder (25%) into validation set. Variables associated with pneumonia (p < 0.1) were entered into Shapley value regression and conditional decision tree analysis. Results: In 2015, there were 797 admissions and 617 patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (age 69.9 ± 16.2, male = 55.0%, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale/NIHSS 8.1 ± 7.9). The frequency of pneumonia was 6.6% (41/617). In univariable analyses NIHSS, time to dysphagia screen, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and age were significantly associated with pneumonia but not weekend admission. Shapley value regression showed that the largest contributor to the model was stroke severity (72.8%) followed by CCI (16.2%), dysphagia screen (3.8%), and age (7.2%). Decision tree analysis yielded an NIHSS threshold of 14 for classifying people with (27% of 75 patients) and without pneumonia (2.5% of 308 patients). The area under the ROC curve for training data was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75-0.91) with no detectable difference between the training and test data (p = 0.4). Results were similar when dysphagia was exchanged for the variable dysphagia screen. Conclusion: Stroke severity status, and not dysphagia or dysphagia screening contributed to the decision tree model of post stroke pneumonia. We cannot exclude the chance that using dysphagia screen in this cohort had minimized the impact of dysphagia on development of pneumonia.
