The systemic error in the vertical component of handgun bullet trajectory reconstructions.

Establishing the path or trajectory of a fired bullet is an often recurring part of shooting incident reconstruction. The current study describes how gravitational pull causes a systemic error on the vertical component of a trajectory reconstruction. Bullet drop, drop angle, and vertical offset are explained and calculated for 10 different handgun/ammunition combinations over a range of distances up to 100 m. The presented results are intended to provide forensic firearm examiners with a reference frame for the magnitude of error introduced on handgun bullet trajectory reconstructions over distance. Threshold values of 20 and 30 m are proposed as conservative distances up to where bullet trajectories can be modeled as straight lines with subsonic/transonic handgun bullets and with supersonic handgun bullets respectively. Both the bullet drop and vertical offset will be below 5 cm at these distances for those categories. The drop angle will be below 0.3°.

Automated interpretation of comparison scores for firearm toolmarks on cartridge case primers.

An automated approach for evaluating the strength of the evidence of firearm toolmark comparison results is presented for a common source scenario. First, comparison scores are derived describing the similarity of marks typically encountered on the primer of fired cartridge cases: aperture shear striations as well as breechface and firing pin impressions. Subsequently, these scores are interpreted using reference distributions of comparison scores obtained for representative known matching (KM) and known non-matching (KNM) ballistic samples in a common source, score-based likelihood ratio (LR) system. We study various alternatives to set up such an LR system and compare them using qualitative and quantitative criteria known from the literature. As an example, results are applied to establish a system suitable for a firearm-ammunition combination often encountered in casework: Glock firearms with Fiocchi nickel primer ammunition. The system outputs an LR and a measure of LR uncertainty. The range of possible LR-values is limited to a minimum and maximum value in areas of the score domain with little reference data. Finally, the feasibility of combining LRs of different mark types into one LR for the entire primer is assessed. For the distribution models considered in this paper, different modeling approaches are optimal for different types of similarity scores. For the chosen firearm-ammunition combination, non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) models perform best for similarity scores based on the correlation coefficient, whereas parametric models perform best for the Congruent Matching Cells (CMC) scores, assuming binomial and beta-binomial models for KM and KNM score distributions respectively. Finally, it is demonstrated that individual LRs of different mark types can be combined into one LR, to interpret a set of different marks on the primer as a whole.

Finding the perfect match: Fingerprint expertise facilitates statistical learning and visual comparison decision-making.

Forensic feature-comparison examiners compare-or "match"-evidence samples (e.g., fingerprints) to provide judgments about the source of the evidence. Research demonstrates that examiners in select disciplines possess expertise in this task by outperforming novices-yet the psychological mechanisms underpinning this expertise are unclear. This article investigates one implicated mechanism: statistical learning, the ability to learn how often things occur in the environment. This ability is likely important in forensic decision-making as samples sharing rarer statistical information are more likely to come from the same source than those sharing more common information. We investigated 46 fingerprint examiners' and 52 novices' statistical learning of fingerprint categories and application of this knowledge in a source-likelihood judgment task. Participants completed four measures of their statistical learning (frequency discrimination judgments, bounded and unbounded frequency estimates, and source-likelihood judgments) before and after familiarization to the "ground-truth" category frequencies. Compared to novices, fingerprint examiners had superior domain-specific statistical learning across all measures-both before and after familiarization. This suggests that fingerprint expertise facilitates domain-specific statistical learning-something that has important theoretical and applied implications for the development of training programs and statistical databases in forensic science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Match me if you can: Evidence for a domain-general visual comparison ability.

Visual comparison-comparing visual stimuli (e.g., fingerprints) side by side and determining whether they originate from the same or different source (i.e., "match")-is a complex discrimination task involving many cognitive and perceptual processes. Despite the real-world consequences of this task, which is often conducted by forensic scientists, little is understood about the psychological processes underpinning this ability. There are substantial individual differences in visual comparison accuracy amongst both professionals and novices. The source of this variation is unknown, but may reflect a domain-general and naturally varying perceptual ability. Here, we investigate this by comparing individual differences (N = 248 across two studies) in four visual comparison domains: faces, fingerprints, firearms, and artificial prints. Accuracy on all comparison tasks was significantly correlated and accounted for a substantial portion of variance (e.g., 42% in Exp. 1) in performance across all tasks. Importantly, this relationship cannot be attributed to participants' intrinsic motivation or skill in other visual-perceptual tasks (visual search and visual statistical learning). This paper provides novel evidence of a reliable, domain-general visual comparison ability.

Firearm examination: Examiner judgments and computer-based comparisons.

Forensic firearm examination provides the court of law with information about the source of fired cartridge cases. We assessed the validity of source decisions of a computer-based method and of 73 firearm examiners who compared breechface and firing pin impressions of 48 comparison sets. We also compared the computer-based method's comparison scores with the examiners' degree-of-support judgments and assessed the validity of the latter. The true-positive rate (sensitivity) and true-negative rate (specificity) of the computer-based method (for the comparison of both the breechface and firing pin impressions) were 94.4% and at least 91.7%, respectively. For the examiners, the true-positive rate was at least 95.3% and the true-negative rate was at least 86.2%. The validity of the source decisions improved when the evaluations of breechface and firing pin impressions were combined and for the examiners also when the perceived difficulty of the comparison decreased. The examiners were reluctant to provide source decisions for "difficult" comparisons even though their source decisions were mostly correct. The correlation between the computer-based method's comparison scores and the examiners' degree-of-support judgments was low for the same-source comparisons to negligible for the different-source comparisons. Combining the outcomes of computer-based methods with the judgments of examiners could increase the validity of firearm examinations. The examiners' numerical degree-of-support judgments for their source decisions were not well-calibrated and showed clear signs of overconfidence. We suggest studying the merits of performance feedback to calibrate these judgments.

Cognitive biases in the peer review of bullet and cartridge case comparison casework: A field study.

OBJECTIVE: Forensic judgments and their peer review are often the result of human assessment and are thus subjective and prone to bias. This study examined whether bias affects forensic peer review. HYPOTHESES: We hypothesized that the probability of disagreement between two forensic examiners about the proposed conclusion would be higher with "blind" peer review (reviewer saw only the first examiner's comparison photos) than with "non-blind" peer review (reviewer also saw the first examiner's interpretation and proposed conclusion). We also hypothesized that examiners with a higher perceived professional status would have a larger effect on the reported conclusion than examiners with a lower status. METHOD: We acquired data during a non-blind and a blind peer review procedure in a naturalistic, covert study with eight examiners (3-26 years of experience). We acquired 97 conclusions of bullet and cartridge case comparisons in the blind and 471 in the non-blind peer review procedure. RESULTS: The odds of disagreement between examiners about the evidential strength of a comparison were approximately five times larger (95%-CI [3.06, 8.50]) in the blind than in the non-blind procedure, with disagreement about 42.3% and 12.5% of the proposed conclusions, respectively. Also, the odds that their proposed conclusion was reported as the final conclusion were approximately 2.5 higher for the higher-status examiners than for lower-status examiners. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support both the hypothesis that bias occurs during non-blind forensic peer review and the hypothesis that higher-status examiners determine the outcome of a discussion more than lower-status examiners. We conclude that blind peer review may reduce the probability of bias and that status effects have an impact on the peer reviewing process.

Assessing the frequency of general fingerprint patterns by fingerprint examiners and novices.

The rarity of general fingerprint patterns should be taken into account in the assessment of fingerprint evidence to provide a more complete assessment of fingerprint evidence than when only considering the minutiae. This should be done because, the rarer the corresponding pattern, the stronger the support for the hypothesis that the fingermark stems from the same source as the reference fingerprint. Fingerprint examiners' experience should enable them to provide meaningful assessments of the frequencies of these general patterns according to the theories of perceptual learning, exemplar theory of categorization and visual statistical learning. In this study we examined the accuracy of fingerprint examiners' and novices' judgments on the rarity of general fingerprint patterns. We found that fingerprint examiners seem to have acquired some knowledge about the rarity of general patterns, but had difficulty expressing this knowledge quantitatively using a novel sub-classification of general patterns. As a consequence, their judgments were not accurate and they did not perform better on this task than novices. For both participant groups judgments of more common patterns were more accurate. However, examiners did outperform novices in rank ordering general patterns from common to rare. We conclude that our study does not show that fingerprint examiners have expertise in explicitly judging frequencies of novel sub-classifications of general fingerprint patterns, but our results do indicate that the examiners have acquired knowledge about the rarity of patterns that novices do not possess.

Comparison and interpretation of impressed marks left by a firearm on cartridge cases - Towards an operational implementation of a likelihood ratio based technique.

Firearm examination is subject to increased scrutiny regarding its foundational validity and inherent subjective nature. The increased use of automatic comparison systems may help to reduce subjectivity. In this paper, we present the performance and limits of an automatic comparison system that assigns a weight to the forensic findings for the comparisons between firing pin marks, breechface marks, or a combination of the two. This weight is expressed by a likelihood ratio (LR) based on 3D topographical measurements coupled with a bi-dimensional statistical model. As the performance of such systems may depend on the reference databases used to inform the model, we investigated the impact of the brand of ammunition and the number of samples. We show that reference databases used to calculate LRs should ideally consist of the same type of ammunition as is seen in the case under investigation and that 7 specimens fired by the same firearm are enough to obtain rates of misleading evidence of a similar magnitude compared to those obtained when far more specimens (60) are used. Additionally, the automatic system was used to assess the outcomes of 7 cases with known same-source or different-source ground truths. These cases were also examined by 8 qualified firearm examiners. In all cases, the experts' appraisals were in line with the ground truth. The automatic system showed some limitations in cases were the data were not sufficient to calculate a robust LR, but also that it can assist and enhance the examiners in their decision process.

Interpol review of forensic firearm examination 2016-2019.

This review paper covers the relevant literature on forensic firearm examination from 2016 to 2019 as a part of the 19th Interpol International Forensic Science Managers Symposium. The review papers are also available at the Interpol website at: https://www.interpol.int/content/download/14458/file/Interpol%20Review%20Papers%202019.pdf.

Influence of Muzzle Instability on Bullet Deflection after Perforating Laminated Particleboards.

The influence of muzzle instability on bullet deflection, when perforating laminated particleboards, was studied with three different handgun bullet types. The mean deflection angles of .32 Auto FMJ and .38 Special SJHP bullets were calculated to be 0.90° and 0.83°, respectively after perforating particleboards orthogonally at a 1 m muzzle-to-target distance. The mean angles dropped to 0.70° and 0.58° at a 15 m muzzle-to-target distance. The differences in deflection angles proved to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) with p-values of 0.023 and 0.001, respectively. The mean calculated deflection angles of .38 Special LRN bullets also dropped from 1.51° to 1.38° when the muzzle-to-target distance was increased from 1 to 15 m, but this difference was not significant (p-value of 0.357). The results support the hypothesis that muzzle instability has an influence on deflection. The possible implications for shooting incident reconstructions and for future research are discussed.

Validity and reliability of forensic firearm examiners.

Forensic firearm examiners compare the features in cartridge cases to provide a judgment addressing the question about their source: do they originate from one and the same or from two different firearms? In this article, the validity and reliability of these judgments is studied and compared to the outcomes of a computer-based method. The features we looked at were the striation patterns of the firing pin aperture shear marks of four hundred test shots from two hundred Glock pistols, which were compared by a computer-based method. Sixty of the resulting 79,800 comparisons were shown to 77 firearm examiners. They were asked to judge whether the cartridge cases had the same source or a different source, and to indicate the degree of support the evidence provided for those judgments. The results show that the true positive rates (sensitivity) and the true negative rates (specificity) of firearm examiners are quite high. The examiners seem to be slightly less proficient at identifying same-source comparisons correctly, while they outperform the used computer-based method at identifying different-source comparisons. The judged degrees of support by examiners who report likelihood ratios are not well-calibrated. The examiners are overconfident, giving judgments of evidential strength that are too high. The judgments of the examiners and the outcomes of the computer-based method are only moderately correlated. We suggest to implement performance feedback to reduce overconfidence, to improve the calibration of degree of support judgments, and to study the possibility of combining the judgments of examiners and the outcomes of computer-based methods to increase the overall validity.

Magazine Influence on Cartridge Case Ejection Patterns with Glock Pistols.

In this study, the cartridge case ejection patterns of six different Glock model pistols (one specimen per model) were compared under three conditions: firing with a loaded magazine, an empty magazine, and without magazine. The distances, covered by the ejected cartridge cases given these three conditions, were compared for each of the six models. A significant difference was found between the groups of data for each of the tested specimens. This indicates that it is important that, to reconstruct a shooting scene incident based on the ejection patterns of a pistol, test shots are fired with the same pistol type and under the correct magazine condition.

Bullet Trajectory after Impact on Laminated Particle Board.

When reconstructing a bullet's trajectory prior to impact using the spatial orientation between two consecutive bullet defects (e.g., by probing), it is important to take the bullet's deflection into account. The (critical) ricochet angles as well as the vertical and horizontal deflection angles of eight cartridge types on laminated particle board have been studied. For all eight of the cartridge types combined, the critical ricochet angles lie between approximately 14° and 26°, while for the subgroup of the jacketed bullets, this range lies lower, between approximately 14° and 18°. The data from this study can be used to assess the accuracy and precision of the applied method. The results show that the highest deflection angles are seen near the critical ricochet angle. Generally speaking, vertical and horizontal deflection angles can almost be neglected above angles of incidence of 30° or 40° for handgun ammunition when shooting at laminated particle board.

Possible influences on bullet trajectory deflection in ballistic gelatine.

The influence of the distance to the top and bottom of a gelatine block and to bullet tracks from previously fired shots on a bullet's trajectory, when passing through ballistic gelatine, was studied. No significant difference in deflection was found when trajectories of 9mm Luger bullets, fired at a 3.5cm distance to the top and bottom of a gelatine block and to bullet tracks from previously fired shots, were compared to trajectories of bullets fired 7cm or more away from any of the aforementioned aspects. A surprisingly consistent 6.5° absolute deflection angle was found when these bullets passed through 22.5 to 23.5cm of ballistic gelatine. The projection angle, determined by the direction of the deflection, appeared to be random. The consistent absolute angle, in combination with the random projection angle, resulted in a cone-like deflection pattern.

Ricochet Behavior on Glass-Critical Ricochet Angles, Ricochet Angles, and Deflection Angles.

For shooting scene reconstruction purposes, knowledge about the ricochet behavior of bullets provides valuable information. In this study, the critical ricochet angles of four cartridge types were established on plain float glass. The estimates of the critical ricochet angles varied between cartridge types and were 21.0° for .32 Auto FMJ bullets, 15.8° for 9 mm Luger FMJ bullets, 17.6° for .45 Auto FMJ bullets, and 21.3° for 9 mm Luger, Action NP bullets. The corresponding ricochet and deflection angles per incidence angle varied depending on the state of the ricocheted bullets. The mean ricochet angles are always lower than the corresponding angles of incidence, and the mean ricochet angles for the FMJ bullets with undamaged jackets are lower than those of bullets where the jacket is either damaged or the bullet partially ricocheted and partially perforated. Mean ricochet angles are lower for undamaged FMJ bullets than for undamaged Action NP bullets.

Bullet trajectory reconstruction - Methods, accuracy and precision.

Based on the spatial relation between a primary and secondary bullet defect or on the shape and dimensions of the primary bullet defect, a bullet's trajectory prior to impact can be estimated for a shooting scene reconstruction. The accuracy and precision of the estimated trajectories will vary depending on variables such as, the applied method of reconstruction, the (true) angle of incidence, the properties of the target material and the properties of the bullet upon impact. This study focused on the accuracy and precision of estimated bullet trajectories when different variants of the probing method, ellipse method, and lead-in method are applied on bullet defects resulting from shots at various angles of incidence on drywall, MDF and sheet metal. The results show that in most situations the best performance (accuracy and precision) is seen when the probing method is applied. Only for the lowest angles of incidence the performance was better when either the ellipse or lead-in method was applied. The data provided in this paper can be used to select the appropriate method(s) for reconstruction and to correct for systematic errors (accuracy) and to provide a value of the precision, by means of a confidence interval of the specific measurement.

The Influence of Wood Grain on the Bullet's Ricochet Behavior.

When a bullet ricochets from wood, various parameters will influence its behavior. In this study, the influence of the wood grain on the ricochet angle (ß) and deflection angle (γ) is assessed. Series of five .32 Auto bullets were fired at different angles of incidence (α) on boards of six wood types. The results confirm the previously shown effect that the mean ß-angles usually exceed α and increase when α increases. Overall, the maximum mean γ occurs when the angle of wood grain (ζ), in relation to the plane of impact, lies between 30° and 75° but differs per combination of wood and α. The results show the inclination of γ toward the left or right, depending on the bullets left or right rotation while also showing that the direction of ζ can enhance or counteract this effect considerably, especially when α is close to the critical ricochet angle.

Influence of Running on Pistol Shot Hit Patterns.

In shooting scene reconstructions, risk assessment of the situation can be important for the legal system. Shooting accuracy and precision, and thus risk assessment, might be correlated with the shooter's physical movement and experience. The hit patterns of inexperienced and experienced shooters, while shooting stationary (10 shots) and in running motion (10 shots) with a semi-automatic pistol, were compared visually (with confidence ellipses) and statistically. The results show a significant difference in precision (circumference of the hit patterns) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion for both inexperienced and experienced shooters. The decrease in precision for all shooters was significantly larger in the y-direction than in the x-direction. The precision of the experienced shooters is overall better than that of the inexperienced shooters. No significant change in accuracy (shift in the hit pattern center) between stationary shots and shots fired in motion can be seen for all shooters.