Further evidence of misclassification of the injury deaths in South Africa: When will the barriers to accurate injury death statistics be removed?

BACKGROUND: Contrary to the World Health Organization's internationally recommended medical certificate of cause of death, the South African (SA) death notification form (DNF) does not allow for the reporting of the manner of death to permit accurate coding of external causes of injury deaths. OBJECTIVES: To describe the injury cause-of-death profile from forensic pathology records collected for the National Cause-of-Death Validation (NCoDV) Project and compare it with profiles from other sources of injury mortality data. In particular, the recording of firearm use in homicides is compared between sources. METHODS: The NCoDV Project was a cross-sectional study of deaths that occurred during a fixed period in 2017 and 2018, from a nationally representative sample of 27 health subdistricts in SA. Trained fieldworkers scanned forensic records for all deaths investigated at the forensic mortuaries serving the sampled subdistricts during the study period. Forensic practitioners reviewed the records and completed a medical certificate of cause of death for each decedent. Causes of death were coded to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10), using Iris automated coding software. Cause-specific mortality fractions for injury deaths were compared with Injury Mortality Survey 2017 (IMS 2017) and Statistics South Africa 2017 (Stats SA 2017) datasets. The cause profile for all firearm-related deaths was compared between the three datasets. RESULTS: A total of 5 315 records were available for analysis. Males accounted for 77.6% of cases, and most decedents were aged between 25 and 44 years. Homicide was the leading cause of death (34.7%), followed by transport injuries (32.6%) and suicide (14.7%). This injury cause profile was similar to IMS 2017 but differed markedly from the official statistics, which showed markedly lower proportions of these three causes (15.0%, 11.6% and 0.7%, respectively), and a much higher proportion of other unintentional causes. Investigation of firearm-related deaths revealed that most were homicides in NCoDV 2017/18 (88.5%) and IMS 2017 (93.1%), while in the Stats SA 2017 data, 98.7% of firearm deaths were classified as accidental. Approximately 7% of firearm-related deaths were suicides in NCoDV 2017/18 and IMS 2017, with only 0.3% in Stats SA 2017. CONCLUSION: The official cause-of-death data for injuries in SA in 2017 differed substantially from findings from the NCoDV 2017/18 study and IMS 2017. Accurate data sources would ensure that public health interventions are designed to reduce the high injury burden. Inclusion of the manner of death on the DNF, as is recommended internationally, is critically important to enable more accurate, reliable and valid reporting of the injury profile.

South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations.

Background: South Africa has homicide rates six times the global average, predominantly among men, but little is known about male victims. As part of the country's first ever study of male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global averages and previous estimates for 2009. Methods: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, stabs and blunt force) within and between years. Findings: 87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge the most common external causes. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher among males aged 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest on weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. Significantly more males tested positive for alcohol than females. Interpretation: The massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk borne by adult South African men highlights the negligible prevention response. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability can we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty and inequality and better control alcohol and firearms. Funding: South African Medical Research Council and Ford Foundation.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to alcohol use in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use was one of the leading contributors to South Africa (SA)'s disease burden in 2000, accounting for 7% of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1). Since then, patterns of alcohol use have changed, as has the epidemiological evidence pertaining to the role of alcohol as a risk factor for infectious diseases, most notably HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of disease attributable to alcohol use by sex and age group in SA in 2000, 2006 and 2012. METHODS: The analysis follows the World Health Organization (WHO)'s comparative risk assessment methodology. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated from modelled exposure estimated from a systematic assessment and synthesis of 17 nationally representative surveys and relative risks based on the global review by the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies. PAFs were applied to the burden of disease estimates from the revised second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2) to calculate the alcohol-attributable burden for deaths and DALYs for 2000, 2006 and 2012. We quantified the uncertainty by observing the posterior distribution of the estimated prevalence of drinkers and mean use among adult drinkers (≥15 years old) in a Bayesian model. We assumed no uncertainty in the outcome measures. RESULTS: The alcohol-attributable disease burden decreased from 2000 to 2012 after peaking in 2006, owing to shifts in the disease burden, particularly infectious disease and injuries, and changes in drinking patterns. In 2012, alcohol-attributable harm accounted for an estimated 7.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6.6 - 7.6) of all deaths and 5.6% (95% UI 5.3 - 6.0) of all DALYs. Attributable deaths were split three ways fairly evenly across major disease categories: infectious diseases (36.4%), non-communicable diseases (32.4%) and injuries (31.2%). Top rankings for alcohol-attributable DALYs for specific causes were TB (22.6%), HIV/AIDS (16.0%), road traffic injuries (15.9%), interpersonal violence (12.8%), cardiovascular disease (11.1%), cancer and cirrhosis (both 4%). Alcohol remains an important contributor to the overall disease burden, ranking fifth in terms of deaths and DALYs. CONCLUSION: Although reducing overall alcohol use will decrease the burden of disease at a societal level, alcohol harm reduction strategies in SA should prioritise evidence-based interventions to change drinking patterns. Frequent heavy episodic (i.e. binge) drinking accounts for the unusually large share of injuries and infectious diseases in the alcohol-attributable burden of disease profile. Interventions should focus on the distal causes of heavy drinking by focusing on strategies recommended by the WHO's SAFER initiative.

Overview.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA) faces multiple health challenges. Quantifying the contribution of modifiable risk factors can be used to identify and prioritise areas of concern for population health and opportunities for health promotion and disease prevention interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the attributable burden of 18 modifiable risk factors for 2000, 2006 and 2012. METHODS: Comparative risk assessment (CRA), a standardised and systematic approach, was used to estimate the attributable burden of 18 risk factors. Risk exposure estimates were sourced from local data, and meta-regressions were used to model the parameters, depending on the availability of data. Risk-outcome pairs meeting the criteria for convincing or probable evidence were assessed using relative risks against a theoretical minimum risk exposure level to calculate either a potential impact fraction or population attributable fraction (PAF). Relative risks were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study as well as published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden was calculated for each risk factor for 2000, 2006 and 2012 by applying the PAF to estimates of deaths and years of life lost from the Second South African National Burden of Disease Study (SANBD2). Uncertainty analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and age-standardised rates were calculated using the World Health Organization standard population. RESULTS: Unsafe sex was the leading risk factor across all years, accounting for one in four DALYs (26.6%) of the estimated 20.6 million DALYs in 2012. The top five leading risk factors for males and females remained the same between 2000 and 2012. For males, the leading risks were (in order of descending rank): unsafe sex; alcohol consumption; interpersonal violence; tobacco smoking; and high systolic blood pressure; while for females the leading risks were unsafe sex; interpersonal violence; high systolic blood pressure; high body mass index; and high fasting plasma glucose. Since 2000, the attributable age-standardised death rates decreased for most risk factors. The largest decrease was for household air pollution (-41.8%). However, there was a notable increase in the age-standardised death rate for high fasting plasma glucose (44.1%), followed by ambient air pollution (7%). CONCLUSION: This study reflects the continued dominance of unsafe sex and interpersonal violence during the study period, as well as the combined effects of poverty and underdevelopment with the emergence of cardiometabolic-related risk factors and ambient air pollution as key modifiable risk factors in SA. Despite reductions in the attributable burden of many risk factors, the study reveals significant scope for health promotion and disease prevention initiatives and provides an important tool for policy makers to influence policy and programme interventions in the country.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: South Africa (SA)'s high rate of interpersonal violence persists as a leading public health problem for the country. The first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1) in 2000 quantified the long-term mental and physical health burden attributable to interpersonal violence by supplementing the direct injury burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence injuries with the substantial contribution of mental health, behavioural and reproductive health consequences accruing from exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child sexual abuse. OBJECTIVES: To revise and improve these estimates by including the additional burden from other forms of child maltreatment, community violence, sexual violence by non-partners, and bullying victimisation in SA for 2000, 2006 and 2012, and trends over time. METHODS: We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for interpersonal violence. This method requires inputs on the prevalence of exposure to the interpersonal violence risk factor subtypes, namely child maltreatment, bullying, IPV, sexual violence by non-partners and other community violence; the burden of related health outcomes (mortality and morbidity); and relative risks of health outcomes in individuals exposed to the risk factor v. those unexposed. We estimated the PAF for the combinations of all interpersonal violence subtypes together to estimate the burden attributable to interpersonal violence overall for 2000, 2006 and 2012. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2012, there was a decrease in interpersonal violence age-standardised attributable death rates from 100 to 71 per 100 000. In the second South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA2), estimates of the attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for interpersonal violence for the year 2000 were revised, from 1.7 million to 2 million DALYs, taking into account attributable mortality and disability from additional forms of violence. There was a decrease in DALYs attributable to interpersonal violence from 2 million in 2000 to 1.75 million in 2012, accounting for 8.5% of the total burden for SA, ranking second highest, after unsafe sex, among 18 risk factors evaluated in 2012. CONCLUSION: Overall, interpersonal violence-attributable DALYs decreased substantially but remain high. The reduction in age-standardised attributable death rates indicates that some policy and social intervention aspects are effective. Further strengthening of existing laws pertaining to interpersonal violence, and other prevention measures, are needed to intensify the prevention of violence, particularly gender-based violence. Additional forms of violence included in this analysis have improved our understanding of the interpersonal violence burden, but the attributable burden in males, although exceedingly high, remains an underestimate. There is a need to improve the epidemiological data on prevalence and risks for the different types of interpersonal violence, particularly for males.

The cost of harmful alcohol use in South Africa: A reply to Murray and Barr (2022).

Letter by Matzopoulos et al. on article by Murray and Barr (Murray M, Barr GDI. The cost of harmful alcohol use in South Africa: A commentary. S Afr Med J 2022;112(3):187-188. https://doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2022.v112i3.16354).

Non-fatal injuries among boys and girls presenting to Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa (SA), road traffic injuries, homicides and burns are the leading causes of injury-related deaths among children. Injury-related deaths are well documented for SA, but this is not the case for non-fatal injuries. OBJECTIVES: To describe the non-fatal injuries sustained among children aged 0 - 13 years, to identify any significant sex differences by age group, cause of injury, admission status and injury severity. METHODS: The trauma unit database from 1997 to 2016 at Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, was utilised for this analysis. The prevalence of injuries and the boy/girl ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. RESULTS: Analysis indicated significant differences by sex for individual injury causes (transport, assault, burns, falls and other injuries), age group, injury severity and admission status. Moderately severe injuries were largely caused by burns, while severe injuries were mostly transport related. Boys had significantly higher proportions of all injury causes. The boy/girl ratio was lowest for assault (1:18), where significantly more girls aged 1 - 3 and 4 - 6 years were injured. Rape/sexual assault was 5.5 times higher for girls, with a significantly higher proportion of moderate-severity injuries (87%; 95% CI 84.7 - 89.4). CONCLUSION: The study findings call for a more targeted prevention response for boy and girl children. Interventions should be targeted at the prevention of burns, traffic collisions and interpersonal violence, in particular sexual assaults against girls.

Unnatural deaths, alcohol bans and curfews: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment during COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) restrictions, particularly relating to the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew, have had a marked effect on the temporal pattern of unnatural deaths in South Africa. Methods. Death data were collected over 68 weeks from January 2020 to April 2021, together with information on the nature of restrictions (if any) on the sale of alcohol, and hours of curfew. Data were analysed using a simple ordinary least square (OLS) regression model to estimate the relative contribution of restrictions on the sale of alcohol and hours of curfew to the pattern of excess unnatural deaths. Results. The complete restriction on the sale of alcohol resulted in a statistically significant reduction in unnatural deaths regardless of the length of curfew. To the contrary, periods where no or limited restrictions on alcohol were in force had no significant effect, or resulted in significantly increased unnatural deaths. Conclusions. The present study highlights an association between alcohol availability and the number of unnatural deaths and demonstrates the extent to which those deaths might be averted by disrupting the alcohol supply. While this is not a long-term solution to addressing alcohol-related harm, it further raises the importance of implementing evidence-based alcohol control measures.

The effect of lockdown on intentional and nonintentional injury during the COVID-19 pandemic in Cape Town, South Africa: A preliminary report.

BACKGROUND: In response to the coronavirus pandemic, lockdown restrictions and a ban on alcohol sales were introduced in South Africa. Objectives. To investigate the impact of lockdown measures on the number of patients who visited a tertiary urban trauma centre. Methods. The period of investigation was from 1 February to 30 June 2020 and was segmented into three intervals: pre-lockdown (February and March 2020), hard lockdown (April and May 2020) and immediately post lockdown (June 2020). The electronic HECTIS health record registry was interrogated for the total number of patients that were seen per month. These were further categorised according to mechanism of injury (stab, gunshot, blunt assault and road traffic injuries). Penetrating (stab and gunshot) and blunt assault victims were collectively grouped as violent trauma. Results. The mean total number of patients seen decreased by 53% during the hard lockdown period. There was a moderate reduction (15%) in patients with gunshot injuries seen during the hard lockdown phase, but there was an 80% increase in the post-lockdown period. The proportion of patients injured in road traffic collisions pre lockdown, hard lockdown and immediate post lockdown was 16.4%, 8.9% and 11.1%, respectively. Patients injured in road traffic collisions decreased by 74% during the hard lockdown period and maintained a reduction of 32% during the immediate post-lockdown period. The mean total number of patients who visited the trauma unit returned to pre-lockdown levels in June. Conclusions. There was an overall trend of reduced number of patients who visited the trauma unit during the hard lockdown period; however, these numbers returned to pre-lockdown levels during the immediate post-lockdown period. The number of road traffic injury admissions remained reduced during all three phases of lockdown, while the number of gunshot victims increased substantially during the post-lockdown period.

The effect of lockdown on intentional and nonintentional injury during the COVID-19 pandemic in Cape Town, South Africa: A preliminary report.

BACKGROUND: In response to the coronavirus pandemic, lockdown restrictions and a ban on alcohol sales were introduced in South Africa. Objectives. To investigate the impact of lockdown measures on the number of patients who visited a tertiary urban trauma centre. Methods. The period of investigation was from 1 February to 30 June 2020 and was segmented into three intervals: pre-lockdown (February and March 2020), hard lockdown (April and May 2020) and immediately post lockdown (June 2020). The electronic HECTIS health record registry was interrogated for the total number of patients that were seen per month. These were further categorised according to mechanism of injury (stab, gunshot, blunt assault and road traffic injuries). Penetrating (stab and gunshot) and blunt assault victims were collectively grouped as violent trauma. Results. The mean total number of patients seen decreased by 53% during the hard lockdown period. There was a moderate reduction (15%) in patients with gunshot injuries seen during the hard lockdown phase, but there was an 80% increase in the post-lockdown period. The proportion of patients injured in road traffic collisions pre lockdown, hard lockdown and immediate post lockdown was 16.4%, 8.9% and 11.1%, respectively. Patients injured in road traffic collisions decreased by 74% during the hard lockdown period and maintained a reduction of 32% during the immediate post-lockdown period. The mean total number of patients who visited the trauma unit returned to pre-lockdown levels in June. Conclusions. There was an overall trend of reduced number of patients who visited the trauma unit during the hard lockdown period; however, these numbers returned to pre-lockdown levels during the immediate post-lockdown period. The number of road traffic injury admissions remained reduced during all three phases of lockdown, while the number of gunshot victims increased substantially during the post-lockdown period.

Utility of crime surveys for Sustainable Development Goals monitoring and violence prevention using a public health approach.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have highlighted interpersonal violence and violence against women and girls as impediments to development globally. South Africa is adversely affected by violence and injury. The annual Victims of Crime Survey (VoCS) provides a potentially useful source of complementary data to bolster vital registration and police crime statistics, but it may not provide data that are sufficiently accurate and reliable to inform prevention efforts. We conducted a critical assessment of the VoCS's methodological robustness and strength as a data source for high-level analyses, adopting a public health and SDGs monitoring perspective that was based on expert opinion and comparison with other data sources. We concluded that either the survey methods should be improved to provide findings that are better aligned with the SDGs agenda and are robust enough to inform high-quality research and prevention, or the funds used to conduct the VoCS should be redirected to other more suitable instruments.

Looking back, moving forward: 50 years of South African Medical Research Council alcohol-related publications.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is one of the highest risk factors for death and disability in South Africa (SA). Objective. To explore the trajectory of empirical research on alcohol in SA between 1969 and 2019, with an emphasis on South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) authored publications. Methods. We reviewed published research (Pubmed and Africa-Wide Information) using systematic methods, clear inclusion and exclusion criteria, and defined search terms. The search was not limited by language. Data synthesis was carried out by the first and last authors. Results. A total of 867 journal articles met the inclusion criteria, with 243 (28.0%) authored or co-authored by SAMRC researchers. For the latter group, three-quarters had an SAMRC researcher as first or last author. Over three-quarters (78.6%) of the SAMRC author positions ('first', 'last' or 'other, counting researchers from a unit only once, but counting authors across different units on a single publication) were from intramural units. Over half the articles authored by SAMRC researchers focused on non-communicable diseases (55.9%), 23.8% focused on communicable diseases, and 10% on crime, violence or injury. Few articles focused on alcohol and tuberculosis (TB), alcohol and cancer, or alcohol policy. Over three-quarters (76.9%) were epidemiological in nature, and 65.3% were cross-sectional studies. There were 17 reviews (7 systematic) and 11 randomised controlled trials (RCTs). There was an increase in the annual number of publications over the 50-year period for both SAMRC and non-SAMRC researchers. Over time, there has been a trend towards publishing on alcohol research in journals published outside SA, but the SAMJ still remains a popular journal choice. Conclusion. The SAMRC has contributed substantially to the growing field of alcohol research in SA, but gaps in areas such as alcohol policy evaluation, alcohol and its association with TB and cancer, and interventional research, are evident.

Reducing homicide through policy interventions: The case of gun control.

Injuries impose a fourth major disease burden on the South African population, which is driven in particular by the high incidence of interpersonal violence. There was a significant decline in mortality from interpersonal violence between 1997 and 2012, and research conducted by South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) researchers has ascribed much of this decline to a decrease in firearm homicide. In the present brief review, we summarise South African research on fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries, with a particular focus on research conducted by SAMRC intra- and extramural units between 1969 and 2019. More recent data suggest a lapse in firearm control that has led to an increase in homicide and that the fluctuating homicide rate is being influenced by adherence to firearm control policies.

A retrospective time trend study of firearm and non-firearm homicide in Cape Town from 1994 to 2013.

BACKGROUND: Gunshot injuries from interpersonal violence are a major cause of mortality. In South Africa (SA), the Firearms Control Act of 2000 sought to address firearm violence by removing illegally owned firearms from circulation, stricter regulation of legally owned firearms, and stricter licensing requirements. Over the last few years, varied implementation of the Act and police corruption have increased firearm availability. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether changes in firearm availability in SA were associated with changes in firearm homicide rates. METHODS: This was a retrospective time trend study (1994 - 2013) using postmortem data. Time trends of firearm and non-firearm homicide rates were analysed with generalised linear models. Distinct time periods for temporal trends were assigned based on a priori assumptions regarding changes in the availability of firearms. RESULTS: Firearm and non-firearm homicide rates adjusted for age, sex and race exhibited different temporal trends. Non-firearm homicide rates either decreased or remained stable over the entire period. Firearm homicide increased at 13% annually from 1994 through 2000, and decreased by 15% from 2003 through 2006, corresponding with changes in firearm availability in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. A 21% annual increase in firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town's coloured population experienced a significantly greater increase than other population groups following additional exposure to illegal firearms from 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The strong association between firearm availability and homicide, and the reversal of a decreasing firearm homicide trend during a period of lax enforcement, provide further support for the association between reduced firearm homicide and stricter regulation.

Mortality trends in the City of Cape Town between 2001 and 2013: Reducing inequities in health.

BACKGROUND: The City of Cape Town (CoCT), South Africa, has collected cause-of-death data from death certificates for many years to monitor population health. In 2000, the CoCT and collaborators set up a local mortality surveillance system to provide timeous mortality data at subdistrict level. Initial analyses revealed large disparities in health across subdistricts and directed the implementation of public health interventions aimed at reducing these disparatities. OBJECTIVES: To describe the changes in mortality between 2001 and 2013 in health subdistricts in the CoCT. METHODS: Pooled mortality data for the periods 2001 - 2004 and 2010 - 2013, from a local mortality surveillance system in the CoCT, were analysed by age, gender, cause of death and health subdistrict. Age-specific mortality rates for each period were calculated and age-standardised using the world standard population, and then compared across subdistricts. RESULTS: All-cause mortality in the CoCT declined by 8% from 938 to 863 per 100 000 between 2001 - 2004 and 2010 - 2013. Mortality in males declined more than in females owing to a large reduction in male injury mortality, particularly firearm-related homicide. HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) mortality dropped by ~10% in both males and females, but there was a marked shift to older ages. Mortality in children aged <5 years dropped markedly, mostly owing to reductions in HIV/AIDS and TB mortality. Health inequities between subdistricts were reduced, with the highest-burden subdistricts achieving the largest reductions in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Local mortality surveillance provides important data for planning, implementing and evaluating targeted health interventions at small-area level. Trends in mortality over the past decade indicate some gains in health and equity, but highlight the need for multisectoral interventions to focus on HIV and TB and homicide and the emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases.

Validating homicide rates in the Western Cape Province, South Africa: Findings from the 2009 Injury Mortality Survey.

BACKGROUND: The Western Cape Province had the highest homicide rates in South Africa during the early 2000s. South African Police Service (SAPS) data suggested a significant decline in homicide rates in the Western Cape since 2007. It ranked second highest to the Eastern Cape Province until 2013 and ranked highest again at 52.1/100 000 in 2015. A recent national injury mortality survey offers an alternative data source to assess whether the decline in homicide rates in the Western Cape was real. METHODS: A retrospective record review of autopsies was conducted from 45 state mortuaries in eight provinces for 2009. In addition, mortality data for the Western Cape were sourced from the Provincial Injury Mortality Surveillance System. Age-standardised mortality rates and crude homicide rates per 100 000 population were calculated to compare with the SAPS crude rates. RESULTS: Our study found that the Western Cape had a provincial age-standardised homicide rate of 40.1/100 000 in 2009 and ranked fourth highest among the nine provinces. The crude homicide rate of 43/100 000 for the Western Cape was similar to the SAPS provincial homicide rate of 42.4/100 000. The Northern Cape Province was the only notable exception to our provincial homicide rate ranking comparison with the SAPS for 2009. CONCLUSIONS:  Conclusions. The Western Cape is fortunate to have alternative data sources to monitor trends in homicides over time. The latest release of the 2014/2015 SAPS crime statistics should be assessed in a similar manner, with a more recent data source, to validate accuracy of the provincial rates on a regular basis.

The cost of harmful alcohol use in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The economic, social and health costs associated with alcohol-related harms are important measures with which to inform alcohol management policies and laws. This analysis builds on previous cost estimates for South Africa. METHODS: We reviewed existing international best-practice costing frameworks to provide the costing definitions and dimensions. We sourced data from South African costing literature or, if unavailable, estimated costs using socio-economic and health data from secondary sources. Care was taken to avoid possible causes of cost overestimation, in particular double counting and, as far as possible, second-round effects of alcohol abuse. RESULTS: The combined total tangible and intangible costs of alcohol harm to the economy were estimated at 10 - 12% of the 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). The tangible financial cost of harmful alcohol use alone was estimated at R37.9 billion, or 1.6% of the 2009 GDP. DISCUSSION: The costs of alcohol-related harms provide a substantial counterbalance to the economic benefits highlighted by the alcohol industry to counter stricter regulation. Curtailing these costs by regulatory and policy interventions contributes directly and indirectly to social well-being and the economy. CONCLUSIONS; Existing frameworks that guide the regulation and distribution of alcohol frequently focus on maximising the contribution of the alcohol sector to the economy, but should also take into account the associated economic, social and health costs. Current interventions do not systematically address the most important causes of harm from alcohol, and need to be informed by reliable evidence of the ongoing costs of alcohol-related harms.

Assessing quality of existing data sources on road traffic injuries (RTIs) and their utility in informing injury prevention in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed whether the quality of the available road traffic injury (RTI) data was sufficient for determining the burden of RTIs in the Western Cape Province and for implementing and monitoring road safety interventions. METHODOLOGY: Underreporting was assessed by comparing data reported by the South African Police Services (SAPS) in 2008 with data from 18 provincial mortuaries. Completeness of the driver death subset of all RTIs was assessed using the capture-recapture method. RESULTS: The mortuary and police data sets comprised 1696 and 860 fatalities respectively for the year 2008. The corresponding provincial road traffic mortality rates were as follows: 32.2 deaths/100,000 population per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 30.7-33.8) and 16.3 deaths/100,000 population per year (95% CI: 15.3-17.5). The police data set contained 820,960 crashes, involving 196,889 persons, indicating substantial duplication of crash events. There were varying proportions of missing data for demographic and other identifying variables, with age missing in nearly half of the cases in the police data set. The estimated total number of driver deaths/year was 588.6 (95% CI: 544.4-632.8), yielding estimated completeness of the mortuary and police data sets of 57.6 and 46.4 percent separately and 77.3 percent combined. CONCLUSION: This study found extensive data quality problems, including missing data, duplication, and significant underreporting of traffic injury deaths in the police data. Not all assumptions underlying the use of capture-recapture method were met in this study; hence, the estimates provided by this analysis should be interpreted with caution. There is a need to address the problems highlighted by this study in order to improve data utility for informing road safety policies. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

Drivers' risk profile indicates the need for a graduated driving licence in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Current driver mortality estimates do not consider the great differences in exposure across the population, giving a false impression that driver deaths are lowest in the youngest age group. Interventions to reduce risk among the younger age group include graduated driver licensing (GDL) - a three-phase licensing system for novice drivers consisting of a learner's permit, a provisional license, and a full license. OBJECTIVES: We calculated driver fatality rates per 10 000 registered drivers in each age group and assessed the need for stricter licensing conditions for novice and younger drivers. METHODS: Age-specific driver mortality rates were calculated using Western Cape Province 2008 mortuary data. The total number of licensed drivers in each age group served as the denominator. Incidence rate ratios were calculated using the age group of 65 - 79 years as the reference. Chi-square test of trend on incidence rate ratios for the age groups was done. Statistical significance was set as p<0.05. RESULTS: There were 339 driver deaths; mean age was 39.4±13.8 years, and males accounted for 80% of the deaths. Age-specific driver mortality rates were highest in the youngest age group (15 - 19 years). There was a significant progressive decrease (except for the age group 45 - 49 years) in the risk of death from road traffic injuries with increasing age compared with the age group ≥ 65 years (chi2 for trend p<0.0001). CONCLUSION; This study showed a relationship between driver's mortality risk and younger age, and underscores the need for introduction of a GDL programme in South Africa.