LLIN evaluation in Uganda project (LLINEUP): The fabric integrity, chemical content and bioefficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets treated with and without piperonyl butoxide across two years of operational use in Uganda.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) supplemented with the synergist piperonyl butoxide have been developed in response to growing pyrethroid resistance; however, their durability in the field remains poorly described. A pragmatic cluster-randomised trial was embedded into Uganda's 2017-2018 LLIN distribution to compare the durability of LLINs with and without PBO. A total of 104 clusters (health sub-districts) were included with each receiving one of four LLIN products, two with pyrethroid + PBO (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) and two pyrethroid-only (Olyset Net and PermaNet 2.0). Nets were sampled at baseline, 12 and 25 months post-distribution to assess physical condition, chemical content, and bioefficacy. Physical condition was quantified using proportionate Hole Index and chemical content measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. Bioefficacy was assessed with three-minute World Health Organisation (WHO) Cone and Wireball assays using pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae, with 1-h knockdown and 24-h mortality recorded. There was no difference in physical durability between LLIN products assessed (P = 0.644). The pyrethroid content of all products remained relatively stable across time-points but PBO content declined by 55% (P < 0.001) and 58% (P < 0.001) for Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 respectively. Both PBO LLINs were highly effective against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes when new, knocking down all mosquitoes. However, bioefficacy declined over time with Olyset Plus knocking down 45.72% (95% CI: 22.84-68.62%, P = 0.021) and Permanent 3.0 knocking down 78.57% (95% CI: 63.57-93.58%, P < 0.001) after 25 months. Here we demonstrate that both Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 are as durable as their pyrethroid-only equivalents and had superior bioefficacy against pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae. However, the superiority of PBO-LLINs decreased with operational use, correlating with a reduction in total PBO content. This decline in bioefficacy after just two years is concerning and there is an urgent need to assess the durability of PBO LLINs in other settings.

A New Test of a Theory about Old Mosquitoes.

In vector control, it is widely accepted that killing adult mosquitoes would sharply reduce the proportion of old mosquitoes and cause the greatest changes to malaria transmission. The principle is based on a mathematical model of the sporozoite rate (the proportion of infective mosquitoes) that emphasized changes in mosquito age. Killing adult mosquitoes also reduces mosquito population densities, which are directly proportional to human biting rates (the number of bites, per person, per day). Eect sizes of vector control can be compared using sporozoite rates and human biting rates, which are commonly measured. We argue that human biting rates convey more use- ful information for planning, monitoring and evaluating vector control, and operational research should focus on understanding mosquito ecology.

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading.

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

Heterogeneous exposure and hotspots for malaria vectors at three study sites in Uganda.

Background: Heterogeneity in malaria transmission has household, temporal, and spatial components. These factors are relevant for improving the efficiency of malaria control by targeting heterogeneity. To quantify variation, we analyzed mosquito counts from entomological surveillance conducted at three study sites in Uganda that varied in malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting or exposure is a risk factor for malaria transmission. Methods: Using a Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial model, validated via a comprehensive simulation study, we quantified household differences in malaria vector density and examined its spatial distribution. We introduced a novel approach for identifying changes in vector abundance hotspots over time by computing the Getis-Ord statistic on ratios of household biting propensities for different scenarios. We also explored the association of household biting propensities with housing and environmental covariates. Results: In each site, there was evidence for hot and cold spots of vector abundance, and spatial patterns associated with urbanicity, elevation, or other environmental covariates. We found some differences in the hotspots in rainy vs. dry seasons or before vs. after the application of control interventions. Housing quality explained a portion of the variation among households in mosquito counts. Conclusion: This work provided an improved understanding of heterogeneity in malaria vector density at the three study sites in Uganda and offered a valuable opportunity for assessing whether interventions could be spatially targeted to be aimed at abundance hotspots which may increase malaria risk. Indoor residual spraying was shown to be a successful measure of vector control interventions in Tororo, Uganda.  Cement walls, brick floors, closed eaves, screened airbricks, and tiled roofs were features of a house that had shown reduction of household biting propensity. Improvements in house quality should be recommended as a supplementary measure for malaria control reducing risk of infection.

Mind the gap: house structure and the risk of malaria in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Good house construction may reduce the risk of malaria by limiting the entry of mosquito vectors. We assessed how house design may affect mosquito house entry and malaria risk in Uganda. METHODS: 100 households were enrolled in each of three sub-counties: Walukuba, Jinja district; Kihihi, Kanungu district; and Nagongera, Tororo district. CDC light trap collections of mosquitoes were done monthly in all homes. All children aged six months to ten years (n = 878) were followed prospectively for a total of 24 months to measure parasite prevalence every three months and malaria incidence. Homes were classified as modern (cement, wood or metal walls; and tiled or metal roof; and closed eaves) or traditional (all other homes). RESULTS: A total of 113,618 female Anopheles were collected over 6,765 nights. 6,816 routine blood smears were taken of which 1,061 (15.6%) were malaria parasite positive. 2,582 episodes of uncomplicated malaria were diagnosed after 1,569 person years of follow-up, giving an overall incidence of 1.6 episodes per person year at risk. The human biting rate was lower in modern homes than in traditional homes (adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.64, p<0.001). The odds of malaria infection were lower in modern homes across all the sub-counties (adjusted odds ratio 0.44, 95%CI 0.30-0.65, p<0.001), while malaria incidence was lower in modern homes in Kihihi (adjusted IRR 0.61, 95%CI 0.40-0.91, p = 0.02) but not in Walukuba or Nagongera. CONCLUSIONS: House design is likely to explain some of the heterogeneity of malaria transmission in Uganda and represents a promising target for future interventions, even in highly endemic areas.