Survival in renal vascular disease.

Renal artery stenosis (RAS) is a relatively uncommon but important potentially reversible cause of renal failure. Little is known about the natural history of ischemic renal disease secondary to RAS. In previous reports, these researchers examined the incidence and risk factors associated with RAS. The study presented here investigates the long-term follow-up of these patients, specifically the effect of RAS on 4-yr, all-cause mortality in a group of 1235 patients undergoing diagnostic cardiac catheterization and abdominal aortography. A total of 1235 consecutive patients undergoing cardiac catheterization also underwent an abdominal flush aortogram. Significant RAS was considered present if one or more renal artery had 50% or greater narrowing in luminal diameter. Four-year unadjusted survival for patients with RAS was 65% compared with 86% for patients undergoing catheterization without significant RAS. Factors associated with decreased 4-yr survival included increased age, increased serum creatinine, presence of RAS, peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hypertension, and reduced ejection fraction. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, the factors associated with decreased 4-yr survival were the presence of significant RAS, reduced ejection fraction, elevated serum creatinine, and symptoms of congestive heart failure. These observations indicate that the presence of significant RAS is a strong independent predictor of 4-yr survival in this patient population.

Clinical determinants of mortality in patients with angiographically diagnosed ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to characterize the clinical determinants of mortality in patients with angiographically diagnosed ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy. BACKGROUND: Patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy may have a worse prognosis than patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Few studies have assessed the effect of ischemic versus nonischemic etiology on outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed prospectively collected data on 3,787 patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction < or = 40% who underwent coronary angiography. Patients were considered to have ischemic cardiomyopathy (n = 3,112) if they had a history of myocardial infarction, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, coronary artery bypass graft surgery or at least one major epicardial coronary artery with > or = 75% stenosis; all others were considered to have nonischemic cardiomyopathy (n = 675). RESULTS: The median age, ejection fraction and proportion of patients with New York Heart Association functional class III or IV symptoms for the nonischemic and ischemic groups were 55 years versus 63 years, 27% versus 32% and 57% versus 25%, respectively. After adjustment for baseline clinical risk factors and presenting characteristics, ischemic etiology remained an important independent predictor of 5-year mortality (p < 0.0001). The extent of coronary artery disease was a better predictor of survival than ischemic or nonischemic etiology (log likelihood chi-square 700 vs. 675, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Ischemic etiology is a significant independent predictor of mortality in patients with cardiomyopathy. However, the extent of coronary artery disease contributes more prognostic information than the clinical diagnosis of ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Further research is needed to refine the clinical definition of ischemic cardiomyopathy so that physicians can appropriately prescribe treatment and accurately predict outcome.

Value of the history and physical in identifying patients at increased risk for coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether information from the physician's initial evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease predicts coronary anatomy at catheterization and 3-year survival. DESIGN: Prospective validation of regression model estimates in an outpatient cohort. SETTING: University medical center. PATIENTS: A total of 1030 consecutive outpatients referred for noninvasive testing for suspected coronary artery disease; 168 of these patients subsequently underwent catheterization within 90 days. MEASUREMENTS: Information from the initial history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and chest radiograph was used to predict coronary anatomy (the likelihood of any significant coronary disease, severe disease [left main or three-vessel], and significant left main disease) among 168 catheterized patients and to estimate 3-year survival among all patients. These estimates were compared with those based on treadmill testing. Cardiovascular testing charges were calculated for all patients. RESULTS: Predicted coronary anatomy and survival closely corresponded to actual findings. Compared with the treadmill exercise test, initial evaluation was slightly better able to distinguish patients with or without any coronary disease and was similar in the ability to identify patients at increased risk for dying or with anatomically severe disease. Based on arbitrary definitions, 37% to 66% of patients were at low risk and responsible for 31% to 56% of the charges for cardiovascular testing. CONCLUSIONS: The physician's initial evaluation, despite the subjective nature of much of the information gathered, can be used to identify patients likely to benefit from further testing. The development of strategies for cost-conscious quality care must begin with the history, physical examination, and simple laboratory testing.

Prognostic value of a treadmill exercise score in outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The treadmill exercise test identifies patients with different degrees of risk of death from cardiovascular events. We devised a prognostic score, based on the results of treadmill exercise testing, that accurately predicts outcome among inpatients referred for cardiac catheterization. This study was designed to determine whether this score could also accurately predict prognosis in unselected outpatients. METHODS: We prospectively studied 613 consecutive outpatients with suspected coronary disease who were referred for exercise testing between 1983 and 1985. Follow-up was 98 percent complete at four years. The treadmill score was calculated as follows: duration of exercise in minutes--(5 x the maximal ST-segment deviation during or after exercise, in millimeters)--(4 x the treadmill angina index). The numerical treadmill angina index was 0 for no angina, 1 for nonlimiting angina, and 2 for exercise-limiting angina. Treadmill scores ranged from -25 (indicating the highest risk) to +15 (indicating the lowest risk). RESULTS: Predicted outcomes for the outpatients, based on their treadmill scores, agreed closely with the observed outcomes. The score accurately separated patients who subsequently died from those who lived for four years (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = 0.849). The treadmill score was a better discriminator than the clinical data and was even more useful for outpatients than it had been for inpatients. Approximately two thirds of the outpatients had treadmill scores indicating low risk (greater than or equal to +5), reflecting longer exercise times and little or no ST-segment deviation, and their four-year survival rate was 99 percent (average annual mortality rate, 0.25 percent). Four percent of the outpatients had scores indicating high risk (less than -10), reflecting shorter exercise times and more severe ST-segment deviation; their four-year survival rate was 79 percent (average annual mortality rate, 5 percent). CONCLUSIONS: The treadmill score is a useful and valid tool that can help clinicians determine prognosis and decide whether to refer outpatients with suspected coronary disease for cardiac catheterization. In this study, it was a better predictor of outcome than the clinical assessment.

Painless exercise ST deviation on the treadmill: long-term prognosis.

To evaluate the clinical correlates and long-term prognostic significance of silent ischemia during exercise, 1,698 consecutive symptomatic patients with coronary artery disease who had both treadmill testing and cardiac catheterization were studied. These patients were classified into three groups: Group 1 = patients with no exercise ST deviation (n = 856), Group 2 = patients with painless exercise ST deviation (n = 242) and Group 3 = patients with both angina and ST segment deviation during exercise (n = 600). Patients with exercise angina had a history of a longer and more aggressive anginal course (with a greater frequency of angina, with nocturnal episodes and/or progressive symptom pattern) and more severe coronary artery disease (almost two-thirds had three vessel disease). The 5 year survival rate among the patients with painless ST deviation was similar to that of patients without ST deviation (86% and 88%, respectively) and was significantly better than that of patients with both symptoms and ST deviation (5 year survival rate 73% in patients with exercise-limiting angina). Similar trends were obtained in subgroups defined by the amount of coronary artery disease present. In the total study group of 1,698 patients, silent ischemia on the treadmill was not a benign finding (average annual mortality rate 2.8%) but, compared with symptomatic ischemia, did indicate a subgroup of patients with coronary artery disease who had a less aggressive anginal course, less coronary artery disease and a better prognosis. Thus, silent ischemia during exercise testing in patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease represents an intermediate risk response in the spectrum of exercise-induced ischemia.

Unimproved chest pain in patients with minimal or no coronary disease: a behavioral phenomenon.

Patients with chest pain and minimal or no coronary disease have a good prognosis for survival, yet many continue to have pain. In our experience with 821 medically treated patients there were three cardiac deaths (0.3%) and two nonfatal myocardial infarctions (0.2%) in the first year after angiography, which had revealed insignificant (less than 75% narrowing of the luminal diameter) or no coronary artery stenosis. In a subset of 548 patients selected with no apparent systematic difference from the inception cohort of 821 patients, there was complete absence of chest pain in 178 (33%) patients but 155 (28%) had similar or worse pain. From an analysis of clinical history and catheterization data entered in a stepwise logistic regression function, unimproved chest pain was significantly associated with female sex (p = 0.01) and an index of five chest pain descriptors (p = 0.0005). After adding selected behavioral variables available for a representative sample of 217 patients, a high hypochondriasis score (scale I from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory) became the strongest determinant of continued pain (p less than 0.0001). In our experience, an exaggerated preoccupation with personal health is prospectively associated with continued chest pain in patients with minimal or no coronary disease.

Hospital discharge one week after acute myocardial infarction.

Sixty-seven consecutive patients who had suffered an acute myocardial infarction but no serious complications during the first to fourth hospital days were considered for a trial of hospital discharge at one week. Thirty-three of the 67 patients were discharged at one week, the remainder having a mean hospital stay of 11 +/- 2 days. The incidence of late complications and recurrent infarctions, as well as mortality and functional status, were determined in all patients six months after discharge. No serious complications occurred in either subgroup within three weeks after discharge. There were no deaths in either subgroup and no difference in functional status at six months. Patients without serious complications during the four days after an acute myocardial infarction can be spared the economic costs and psychologic stress of prolonged hospitalization.

The role of the exercise test in the evaluation of patients for ischemic heart disease.

A cohort of 1472 patients who underwent both exercise stress testing and coronary angiography within six weeks was examined. The data indicated that a combination of exercise parameters is both diagnostically and prognostically important. Almost all patients (greater than 97%) who had positive exercise tests at Stage I or Stage II had significant coronary artery disease. More than half of these (greater than 60%) had three vessel disease and over 25% had significant narrowing (greater than 50%) of the left main coronary artery. Patients who achieved Stage IV or greater exercise durations with either negative or indeterminate ST-segment response had less than a 15% prevalence of three vessel disease and less than a 1% prevalence of left main coronary artery disease. A low risk subgroup (75% of all non-operated patients) was identified with a twelve month survival greater than 99%. A high risk subgroup (11% of all nonoperated patients) was identified with a twelve month survival of less than 85%. The exercise test is a noninvasive, reproducible method to assess the presence and extent of anatomic disease and the prognosis when significant disease has been defined. It should be used in conjunction with other noninvasive tests to determine optimal management in patients evaluated for ischemic heart disease.