Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean.

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Evaluación de la concordancia entre la riqueza de especies pronosticada, priorizaciones pasadas y la designación de áreas marinas protegidas en el oeste del Océano Índico Resumen Los avances científicos en la cobertura de datos ambientales y los algoritmos de aprendizaje automatizado han mejorado la capacidad de predecir a gran escala cuando hacen falta datos. Estos avances nos permiten desarrollar un representante con resolución espacial para predecir la cantidad de taxones marinos en las costas tropicales. Usamos una base de datos espaciales de diversos ambientes marinos para modelar la cantidad de taxones a partir de ∼1000 sitios de campo y aplicamos las predicciones a las 7039 celdas arrecifales de 6.25­km2 en nueve ecorregiones y once países del oeste del Océano Índico. Nuestro representante para la cantidad total de taxones se basó en la correlación positiva (r2=0.24) de la cantidad de taxones de corales duros y cinco familias de peces arrecifales con diversidad alta. Las relaciones ambientales indicaron que el número de especies de peces estuvo influenciado principalmente por la biomasa, la cercanía a las personas, la gestión, la conectividad y la productividad y que los taxones de coral estuvieron influenciados principalmente por la variabilidad ambiental fisicoquímica. Comparamos la prioridad de las áreas de conservación a nivel de las delimitaciones espaciales de provincia, ecorregión, nación y fuerza del agrupamiento espacial basado en nuestro total de especies representantes con aquellas especies identificadas en tres reportes previos de establecimiento de prioridades y con la base de datos de áreas protegidas. Con nuestro método identificamos 119 localidades aptas para tres cantidades de taxones (corales duros, peces y su combinación) y cuatro criterios de delimitación espacial (nación, ecorregión, provincia y grupo de arrecifes). Las publicaciones previas sobre el establecimiento de prioridades identificaron 91 localidades prioritarias de las cuales seis fueron identificadas por todos los reportes. Identificamos doce localidades que se ajustan a nuestros doce criterios y se correspondieron con tres localidades identificadas previamente, 65 que se alinearon con al menos un reporte anterior y 28 que eran nuevas localidades. Sólo 34% de las 208 áreas marinas protegidas en esta provincia se traslaparon con localidades identificadas con un gran número de taxones pronosticados. Hubo diferencias porque en el pasado se priorizaba frecuentemente con base en las percepciones no cuantificadas de lo remoto y prioritario de los taxones preseleccionados. Nuestra especie representante del ambiente y nuestra estrategia de modelo pueden considerarse entre otros criterios importantes para tomar decisiones de conservación.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change.

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Diversificación de los tipos de refugio necesarios para asegurar el futuro de los arrecifes de coral sujetos al cambio climático Resumen Una de las principales recomendaciones para la adaptación al cambio climático es identificar los refugios de los arrecifes de coral frente al estrés térmico del cambio climático y mejorar su gestión. Revisamos y resumimos ∼30 años de investigación aplicada centrada en la identificación de refugios climáticos para priorizar las acciones de conservación de los arrecifes de coral bajo un rápido cambio climático. Descubrimos que los refugios climáticos propuestos actualmente y las ubicaciones que pueden evitarlos dependen en gran medida de métricas de exceso de calor, como las semanas de calentamiento en grados (SCG). Sin embargo, existen muchas variables alternativas de historia vital, ambientales y ecológicas que podrían utilizarse para identificar otros tipos de refugios que resulten en el acervo diversificado que se desea para la conservación de los arrecifes de coral. Para mejorar las prioridades de conservación de los arrecifes de coral, es necesario evaluar y validar las predicciones sobre refugios climáticos con datos de campo a largo plazo sobre abundancia, diversidad y funcionamiento de los corales. También es necesario identificar y salvaguardar lugares que muestren resistencia a la exposición climática prolongada a olas de calor y la capacidad de recuperarse rápidamente tras la exposición térmica. Recomendamos utilizar más métricas para identificar un acervo de posibles lugares de refugio para los arrecifes de coral que puedan evitar, resistir y recuperarse de la exposición a las altas temperaturas oceánicas y las consecuencias del cambio climático, para así desplazar los esfuerzos pasados centrados en la evitación hacia un acervo diversificado de riesgos que pueda utilizarse para mejorar la conservación estratégica de los arrecifes de coral en un clima que se calienta rápidamente.

Usage and coordination of governance principles to address proximate and distal drivers of conflicts in fisheries commons.

Commons' problems and solutions have the elements of local, proximate, and large-scale distal processes. Solutions, therefore, require accessing, implementing, and coordinating information and actions at multiple scales. Restoring commons, such as fisheries, will require a better understanding of how stakeholders access and use information at various scales to resolve governance and restrictions problems. In 179 household interviews, perceptions of fisheries conflicts and their causes were identified, and 16 management committee key informants described their methods for mediating hypothetical small-scale fisheries problems in Kenya. The 6 studied sites varied in human development and demographic contexts but had notable similarities that reflected a respondent's focus on localized, direct, and proximate fishing conflicts. The most cited problems included limited space, disagreement about gears, poor resource conditions, and locally inadequate benefits. The most cited sources of information were local households and the community, and there was considerably less acknowledgment of distal problems and solutions. Key informants selected a limited number of local community-focused solutions. For example, informants chose to mediate conflicts between neighbors with local community meetings rather than through formal national institutions. Therefore, distal solutions were likely to be perceived as ineffectual, possibly due to the challenges of polycentric governance coordination. However, widespread overfishing arises from overarching distal processes not fully amenable to local solutions. Therefore, a focus on local action is expected to limit the ability to address distal problems. These include conflicting values, demographic changes, supportive governance frameworks, emerging technologies, resolving conflicting local rules, fair between-group enforcement, responding to temporary shortages of fish, and intercommunity border and rule disputes. Improved coordination and integration of information and institutions to simultaneously address both proximate and distal common's problems are recommended.

Uso y coordinación de los principios de gobernanza para abordar los factores prs y distales de los conflictos en las pesquerías comunales Resumen Los problemas y las soluciones comunales tienen elementos de los procesos distales locales, proximales y a gran escala. Por lo tanto, las soluciones necesitan tener acceso a la información y las acciones a escalas múltiples, así como implementarlas y coordinarlas. Restaurar los bienes comunes, como las pesquerías, requerirá de un mejor entendimiento de cómo los actores acceden y usan la información a varias escalas para resolver los problemas de gobernanza y restricción. En 179 entrevistas a hogares, identificamos la percepción de los conflictos de las pesquerías y sus causas, y 16 informantes clave de los comités gestores describieron sus métodos para mediar problemas hipotéticos de las pequeñas pesquerías en Kenia. Los seis sitios estudiados variaron en cuanto al desarrollo humano y los contextos demográficos, pero tuvieron similitudes notables que reflejaron el enfoque de los respondientes en cuanto a los conflictos localizados, directos y próximos. Los problemas más citados fueron el espacio limitado, los desacuerdos sobre el equipo de pesca, las malas condiciones de los recursos y los beneficios inadecuados para la localidad. Las fuentes de información más citadas fueron los hogares locales y la comunidad, además de que hubo un considerable reconocimiento reducido de los problemas y las soluciones distales. Los informantes clave seleccionaron un número limitado de soluciones locales enfocadas en la comunidad. Por ejemplo, los informantes eligieron mediar los conflictos entre los vecinos con juntas de la comunidad local en lugar de por medio de instituciones nacionales formales. Por lo tanto, hubo mayor probabilidad de que se percibiera a las soluciones distales como ineficientes, posiblemente debido a los retos de la coordinación policéntrica de la gobernanza. Sin embargo, la sobrepesca extendida surge de los procesos distales generales no del todo susceptibles a las soluciones locales. Así, se espera que un enfoque en la acción local limite la habilidad de abordar estos problemas distales. Estos problemas incluyen los valores conflictivos, los cambios demográficos, los marcos de gobernanza de apoyo, las tecnologías emergentes, la resolución de normas locales conflictivas, navegar entre el cumplimiento grupal, responder a la escasez temporal de peces y las disputas entre comunidades por las normas y las fronteras. Recomendamos mejorar la integración y coordinación de la información y las instituciones para abordar simultáneamente los problemas distales y proximales de los bienes comunes.

Decadal shifts in traits of reef fish communities in marine reserves.

Marine reserves are known to impact the biomass, biodiversity, and functions of coral reef fish communities, but the effect of protective management on fish traits is less explored. We used a time-series modelling approach to simultaneously evaluate the abundance, biomass, and traits of eight fish families over a chronosequence spanning 44 years of protection. We constructed a multivariate functional space based on six traits known to respond to management or disturbance and affect ecosystem processes: size, diet, position in the water column, gregariousness, reef association, and length at maturity. We show that biomass increased with a log-linear trend over the time-series, but abundance only increased after 20 years of closure, and with more variation among reserves. This difference is attributed to recovery rates being dependent on body sizes. Abundance-weighted traits and the associated multivariate space of the community change is driven by increased proportions over time of the trait categories: 7-15 cm body size; planktivorous; species low in the water column; medium-large schools; and species with high levels of reef association. These findings suggest that the trait compositions emerging after the cessation of fishing are novel and dynamic.

Coral community life histories and population dynamics driven by seascape bathymetry and temperature variability.

Temperature variability, habitat, coral communities, and fishing intensity are important factors influencing coral responses to climate change. Consequently, chronic and acute sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and their interactions with habitat and fishing were studied along the East African coast (~400km) by evaluating changes over a ~25-year period in two major reef habitats-island and fringing reefs. These habitats had similar mean and standard deviation temperature measurements but differed in that islands had lower ocean heights and flatter and less right-skewed temperature distributions than fringing reefs. These patterns arise because islands are exposed to deep offshore water passing through deep channels while being protected from the open ocean storms and the strong inter-annual current temperature variability. Within these two seascapes, coral communities are shaped by population responses to the variable temperature distributions as determined by the taxa's associations with the competitive-stress-ruderal (CSR) life history groups. For example, competitive taxa were more abundant where temperature distributions were flat and lacked frequent warm water anomalies. In contrast, ruderal, weedy, and generalist taxa were more common where temperature distributions were centralized, standard deviations high, and warm water anomalies more frequent. Finally, stress-resistant taxa were more common in reefs with high temperature skew but flatter temperature distributions. The rare 1998 thermal anomaly impacted and disturbed the ruderal and stressed reef more than the competitive communities. Ruderal became more similar to stressed communities while the stressed community moved further from the mean before recovering towards the competitive community. Competitive taxa were more common on islands and the deeper fringing reef sites while ruderal were dominant in shallow fringing reef lagoons. Over time, islands were less disturbed than fringing reefs and maintained the highest coral cover, numbers of taxa, and most competitive or space-occupying taxa. However, some island reefs with a history of dynamite fishing aligned with the stress-resistant communities over the full study period. Compared to the in situ SST gauges at the study site, temperature proxies with global coverage were often good at estimating mean and standard deviations of the SSTs but much poorer at estimating the shape of the temperature distributions that reflect chronic and acute stress, as reflected by kurtosis and skewness metrics. Given that these stress variables were critical for understanding the impacts of rare climate disturbances, global climate models that use mean conditions are likely to be poor predictors of future impacts on corals, particularly their species and life history composition. Better predictions should be possible if appropriate chronic and acute stress metrics and their proxies are identified and used.

The timing and causality of ecological shifts on Caribbean reefs.

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

Meeting fisheries, ecosystem function, and biodiversity goals in a human-dominated world.

The worldwide decline of coral reefs necessitates targeting management solutions that can sustain reefs and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. However, little is known about the context in which different reef management tools can help to achieve multiple social and ecological goals. Because of nonlinearities in the likelihood of achieving combined fisheries, ecological function, and biodiversity goals along a gradient of human pressure, relatively small changes in the context in which management is implemented could have substantial impacts on whether these goals are likely to be met. Critically, management can provide substantial conservation benefits to most reefs for fisheries and ecological function, but not biodiversity goals, given their degraded state and the levels of human pressure they face.

Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

Social-ecological alignment and ecological conditions in coral reefs.

Complex social-ecological interactions underpin many environmental problems. To help capture this complexity, we advance an interdisciplinary network modeling framework to identify important relationships between people and nature that can influence environmental conditions. Drawing on comprehensive social and ecological data from five coral reef fishing communities in Kenya; including interviews with 648 fishers, underwater visual census data of reef ecosystem condition, and time-series landings data; we show that positive ecological conditions are associated with 'social-ecological network closure' - i.e., fully linked and thus closed network structures between social actors and ecological resources. Our results suggest that when fishers facing common dilemmas form cooperative communication ties with direct resource competitors, they may achieve positive gains in reef fish biomass and functional richness. Our work provides key empirical insight to a growing body of research on social-ecological alignment, and helps to advance an integrative framework that can be applied empirically in different social-ecological contexts.

Identifying species threatened with local extinction in tropical reef fisheries using historical reconstruction of species occurrence.

Identifying the species that are at risk of local extinction in highly diverse ecosystems is a big challenge for conservation science. Assessments of species status are costly and difficult to implement in developing countries with diverse ecosystems due to a lack of species-specific surveys, species-specific data, and other resources. Numerous techniques are devised to determine the threat status of species based on the availability of data and budgetary limits. On this basis, we developed a framework that compared occurrence data of historically exploited reef species in Kenya from existing disparate data sources. Occurrence data from archaeological remains (750-1500CE) was compared with occurrence data of these species catch assessments, and underwater surveys (1991-2014CE). This comparison indicated that only 67 species were exploited over a 750 year period, 750-1500CE, whereas 185 species were landed between 1995 and 2014CE. The first step of our framework identified 23 reef species as threatened with local extinction. The second step of the framework further evaluated the possibility of local extinction with Bayesian extinction analyses using occurrence data from naturalists' species list with the existing occurrence data sources. The Bayesian extinction analysis reduced the number of reef species threatened with local extinction from 23 to 15. We compared our findings with three methods used for assessing extinction risk. Commonly used extinction risk methods varied in their ability to identify reef species that we identified as threatened with local extinction by our comparative and Bayesian method. For example, 12 of the 15 threatened species that we identified using our framework were listed as either least concern, unevaluated, or data deficient in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature red list. Piscivores and macro-invertivores were the only functional groups found to be locally extinct. Comparing occurrence data from disparate sources revealed a large number of historically exploited reef species that are possibly locally extinct. Our framework addressed biases such as uncertainty in priors, sightings and survey effort, when estimating the probability of local extinction. Our inexpensive method showed the value and potential for disparate data to fill knowledge gaps that exist in species extinction assessments.

Conservation needs exposed by variability in common-pool governance principles.

Common-pool governance principles are becoming increasingly important tools for natural resource management with communities and comanagement arrangements. Effectiveness of these principles depends on variability in agreements, trust, and adherence to institutional norms. We evaluated heterogeneity in governance principles by asking 449 people in 30 fishing communities in 4 East African countries to rate their effectiveness. The influences of individuals, their membership and role in stakeholder community groups, leadership, community, and country were tested. The membership and role of people were not the main influence on their perceptions of the effectiveness of governance principles. Therefore, drawing conclusions about the effectiveness of specific principles would be difficult to make independent of the individuals asked. More critical were individuals' nationalities and their associations with the shared perceptions of a response-group's effectiveness of each principle. Perceptions of effectiveness differed strongly by country, and respondents from poor nations (Madagascar and Mozambique) were more cohesiveness but had fewer and weaker between-community conflict-resolution mechanisms. Overall, group identity, group autonomy, decision-making process, and conflict resolution principles were perceived to be most effective and likely to be enforced by repeated low-cost intragroup activities. Graduated sanctions, cost-benefit sharing, and monitoring resource users, fisheries, and ecology were the least scaled principles and less affordable via local control. We suggest these 2 groups of principles form independently and, as economies develop and natural resources become limiting, sustainability increasingly depends on the later principles. Therefore, management effectiveness in resource-limited situations depends on distributing power, skills, and costs beyond fishing communities to insure conservation needs are met.

Necesidades de la Conservación Expuestas por la Variabilidad de los Principios de Gobernanza de Recursos Comunes Resumen Los principios de gobernanza de recursos comunes se utilizan cada vez más como una herramienta importante para el manejo de recursos naturales en las comunidades y los arreglos de co-manejo. La efectividad de estos principios depende de la variabilidad de los arreglos, la confianza y el apego a las normas institucionales. Para evaluar la heterogeneidad en los principios de gobernanza le pedimos a 449 personas en 30 comunidades pesqueras de cuatro países del este de África que calificaran la efectividad de los principios. Se evaluaron la influencia de los individuos, su afiliación y su papel dentro de los grupos de liderazgo, dentro de la comunidad de accionistas, dentro de la comunidad y dentro de los países. La afiliación y el papel de las personas no fueron la influencia principal sobre sus percepciones de la efectividad de los principios de gobernanza. Por lo tanto, llegar a conclusiones sobre la efectividad de los principios específicos sería complicado, independientemente de los individuos a los que se les pide la calificación. Fueron más relevantes la nacionalidad de los individuos y su asociación con las percepciones compartidas sobre la efectividad de un grupo de respuestas de cada principio. Las percepciones de efectividad difirieron fuertemente entre países, y las respuestas de las naciones pobres (Madagascar y Mozambique) fueron más cohesivas, pero tuvieron menos mecanismos de resolución de conflictos entre comunidades, además de ser más débiles. En general, se percibieron como más efectivos y con mayor probabilidad de ser impuestos por las actividades de bajo costo dentro de un grupo. Las sanciones graduadas, la partición de los costos de los beneficios y el monitoreo de los usuarios de los recursos, las pesquerías y la ecología fueron los principios que menos aparecieron en la escala de las calificaciones y también fueron las menos costeables para el control local. Sugerimos que estos dos grupos de principios se formen independientemente y, conforme se desarrollan las economías y los recursos naturales se vuelvan limitados, que la sustentabilidad dependa cada vez más de estos principios. Así, el manejo de la efectividad en situaciones de recursos limitados depende de la distribución del poder, las habilidades y los costos más allá de las comunidades pesqueras para asegurar que se cumpla con todas las necesidades de conservación.

The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems.

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery. Here, we review the potential of RBM to help sustain coral reefs in the 21st century. We explore the scope for supporting resilience through existing management approaches and emerging technologies and discuss their opportunities and limitations in a changing climate. We argue that for RBM to be effective in a changing world, reef management strategies need to involve both existing and new interventions that together reduce stress, support the fitness of populations and species, and help people and economies to adapt to a highly altered ecosystem.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains.

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs ("gravity"), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts.

Among-site variability in the stochastic dynamics of East African coral reefs.

Coral reefs are dynamic systems whose composition is highly influenced by unpredictable biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the spatial scale at which long-term predictions of reef composition can be made will be crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Using a 22-year time series of benthic composition data from 20 reefs on the Kenyan and Tanzanian coast, we developed Bayesian vector autoregressive state-space models for reef dynamics, incorporating among-site variability, and quantified their long-term behaviour. We estimated that if there were no among-site variability, the total long-term variability would be approximately one-third of its current value. Thus, our results showed that among-site variability contributes more to long-term variability in reef composition than does temporal variability. Individual sites were more predictable than previously thought, and predictions based on current snapshots are informative about long-term properties. Our approach allowed us to identify a subset of possible climate refugia sites with high conservation value, where the long-term probability of coral cover ≤0.1 (as a proportion of benthic cover of hard substrate) was very low. Analytical results show that this probability is most strongly influenced by among-site variability and by interactions among benthic components within sites. These findings suggest that conservation initiatives might be successful at the site scale as well as the regional scale.

Human Disruption of Coral Reef Trophic Structure.

The distribution of biomass among trophic levels provides a theoretical basis for understanding energy flow and the hierarchical structure of animal communities. In the absence of energy subsidies [1], bottom-heavy trophic pyramids are expected to predominate, based on energy transfer efficiency [2] and empirical evidence from multiple ecosystems [3]. However, the predicted pyramid of biomass distribution among trophic levels may be disrupted through trophic replacement by alternative organisms in the ecosystem, trophic cascades, and humans preferentially impacting specific trophic levels [4-6]. Using empirical data spanning >250 coral reefs, we show how trophic pyramid shape varies given human-mediated gradients along two orders of magnitude in reef fish biomass. Mean trophic level of the assemblage increased modestly with decreasing biomass, contrary to predictions of fishing down the food web [7]. The mean trophic level pattern is explained by trophic replacement of herbivorous fish by sea urchins at low biomass and the accumulation of slow-growing, large-bodied, herbivorous fish at high biomass. Further, at high biomass, particularly where fishers are not selectively removing higher trophic level individuals, a concave trophic distribution emerges. The concave trophic distribution implies a more direct link between lower and upper trophic levels, which may confer greater energy efficiency. This trophic distribution emerges when community biomass exceeds ∼650 kg/ha, suggesting that fisheries for upper trophic level species will only be supported under lightly fished scenarios.

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs.

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world's coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the 'outliers'­places where ecosystems are substantially better ('bright spots') or worse ('dark spots') than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.

Context-Dependent Diversity-Effects of Seaweed Consumption on Coral Reefs in Kenya.

Consumers and prey diversity, their interactions, and subsequent effects on ecosystem function are important for ecological processes but not well understood in high diversity ecosystems such as coral reefs. Consequently, we tested the potential for diversity-effects with a series of surveys and experiments evaluating the influence of browsing herbivores on macroalgae in Kenya's fringing reef ecosystem. We surveyed sites and undertook experiments in reefs subject to three levels of human fishing influence: open access fished reefs, small and recently established community-managed marine reserves, and larger, older government-managed marine reserves. Older marine reserves had a greater overall diversity of herbivores and browsers but this was not clearly associated with reduced macroalgal diversity or abundance. Experiments studying succession on hard substrata also found no effects of consumer diversity. Instead, overall browser abundance of either sea urchins or fishes was correlated with declines in macroalgal cover. An exception was that the absence of a key fish browser genus, Naso, which was correlated with the persistence of Sargassum in a marine reserve. Algal selectivity assays showed that macroalgae were consumed at variable rates, a product of strong species-specific feeding and low overlap in the selectivity of browsing fishes. We conclude that the effects of browser and herbivore diversity are less than the influences of key species, whose impacts emerge in different contexts that are influenced by fisheries management. Consequently, identifying key herbivore species and managing to protect them may assist protecting reef functions.

Linking ecosystem services and human-values theory.

Understanding why people make the decisions they do remains a fundamental challenge facing conservation science. Ecosystem service (ES) (a benefit people derive from an ecosystem) approaches to conservation reflect efforts to anticipate people's preferences and influence their environmental behavior. Yet, the design of ES approaches seldom includes psychological theories of human behavior. We sought to alleviate this omission by applying a psychological theory of human values to a cross-cultural ES assessment. We used interviews and focus groups with fish workers from 28 coral reef fishing communities in 4 countries to qualitatively identify the motivations (i.e., human values) underlying preferences for ES; quantitatively evaluate resource user ES priorities; and identify common patterns among ES motivations and ES priorities (i.e., trade-offs and synergies). Three key findings are evident that align with human values theory. First, motivations underlying preferences for individual ESs reflected multiple human values within the same value domain (e.g., self-enhancement). Second, when averaged at community or country scales, the order of ES priorities was consistent. However, the order belied significant variation that existed among individuals. Third, in line with human values theory, ESs related to one another in a consistent pattern; certain service pairs reflected trade-off relationships (e.g., supporting and provisioning), whereas other service pairs reflected synergistic relationships (e.g., supporting and regulating). Together, these findings help improve understanding of when and why convergence and trade-offs in people's preferences for ESs occur, and this knowledge can inform the development of suitable conservation actions.

Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being.

Managing ecosystems for multiple ecosystem services and balancing the well-being of diverse stakeholders involves different kinds of trade-offs. Often trade-offs involve noneconomic and difficult-to-evaluate values, such as cultural identity, employment, the well-being of poor people, or particular species or ecosystem structures. Although trade-offs need to be considered for successful environmental management, they are often overlooked in favor of win-wins. Management and policy decisions demand approaches that can explicitly acknowledge and evaluate diverse trade-offs. We identified a diversity of apparent trade-offs in a small-scale tropical fishery when ecological simulations were integrated with participatory assessments of social-ecological system structure and stakeholders' well-being. Despite an apparent win-win between conservation and profitability at the aggregate scale, food production, employment, and well-being of marginalized stakeholders were differentially influenced by management decisions leading to trade-offs. Some of these trade-offs were suggested to be "taboo" trade-offs between morally incommensurable values, such as between profits and the well-being of marginalized women. These were not previously recognized as management issues. Stakeholders explored and deliberated over trade-offs supported by an interactive "toy model" representing key system trade-offs, alongside qualitative narrative scenarios of the future. The concept of taboo trade-offs suggests that psychological bias and social sensitivity may exclude key issues from decision making, which can result in policies that are difficult to implement. Our participatory modeling and scenarios approach has the potential to increase awareness of such trade-offs, promote discussion of what is acceptable, and potentially identify and reduce obstacles to management compliance.