Conserving the evolutionary history of birds.

In the midst of the sixth mass extinction, limited resources are forcing conservationists to prioritize which species and places will receive conservation action. Evolutionary distinctiveness measures the isolation of a species on its phylogenetic tree. Combining a species' evolutionary distinctiveness with its globally endangered status creates an EDGE score. We use EDGE scores to prioritize the places and species that should be managed to conserve bird evolutionary history. We analyzed all birds in all countries and important bird areas. We examined parrots, raptors, and seabirds in depth because these groups are especially threatened and relatively speciose. The three focal groups had greater median threatened evolutionary history than other taxa, making them important for conserving bird evolutionary history. Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, New Zealand, and the Philippines were especially critical countries for bird conservation because they had the most threatened evolutionary history for endemic birds and are important for parrots, raptors, and seabirds. Increased enforcement of international agreements for the conservation of parrots, raptors, and seabirds is needed because these agreements protect hundreds of millions of years of threatened bird evolutionary history. Decisive action is required to conserve the evolutionary history of birds into the Anthropocene.

En medio de la sexta extinción masiva, los recursos limitados están obligando a los conservacionistas a priorizar cuáles especies y lugares recibirán acciones de conservación. La peculiaridad evolutiva mide el aislamiento de una especie con respecto a su árbol filogenético. La combinación entre la peculiaridad evolutiva de una especie y su estado de conservación mundial genera un puntaje EDGE. Usamos estos puntajes para priorizar los lugares y especies que se deben gestionar para conservar la historia evolutiva ornitológica. Analizamos todas las especies de aves en todos los países y áreas de importancia ornitológica. Estudiamos a profundidad a los psitácidos, rapaces, y aves marinas por el nivel de amenaza que enfrentan estos grupos y porque cuentan con muchas especies. Estos tres grupos tuvieron una mayor mediana de historia evolutiva amenazada que los demás taxones, por lo que son de suma importancia para la conservación de la historia evolutiva ornitológica. Australia, Brasil, Indonesia, Madagascar, Nueva Zelanda y las Filipinas fueron países particularmente críticos para la conservación de las aves pues cuentan con la mayor historia evolutiva amenazada de aves endémicas y son localidades importantes para nuestros tres grupos focales. Se requiere de un incremento en la aplicación de los acuerdos internaciones para la conservación de los psitácidos, rapaces y aves marinas ya que estos acuerdos protegen cientos de millones de años de historia evolutiva ornitológica. Se necesitan acciones decisivas para conservar la historia evolutiva de las aves en el Antropoceno.

A stochastic simulation model for assessing the masking effects of road noise for wildlife, outdoor recreation, and bioacoustic monitoring.

Traffic noise is one of the leading causes of reductions in animal abundances near roads. Acoustic masking of conspecific signals and adventitious cues is one mechanism that likely causes animals to abandon loud areas. However, masking effects can be difficult to document in situ and the effects of infrequent noise events may be impractical to study. Here, we present the Soundscapes model, a stochastic individual-based model that dynamically models the listening areas of animals searching for acoustic resources ("searchers"). The model also studies the masking effects of noise for human detections of the searchers. The model is set in a landscape adjacent to a road. Noise produced by vehicles traveling on that road is represented by calibrated spectra that vary with speed. Noise propagation is implemented using ISO-9613 procedures. We present demonstration simulations that quantify declines in searcher efficiency and human detection of searchers at relatively low traffic volumes, fewer than 50 vehicles per hour. Traffic noise is pervasive, and the Soundscapes model offers an extensible tool to study the effects of noise on bioacoustics monitoring, point-count surveys, the restorative value of natural soundscapes, and auditory performance in an ecological context.

Vulture distribution and people perception of vultures in Pokhara Valley, Nepal.

Due to an abundance and diversity of vultures, Nepal is one of the most important countries for vulture conservation. Within Nepal, the Pokhara Valley is especially significant. We examine the distribution of vultures within the Pokhara Valley by conducting counts at 11 potential feeding or roosting sites using point count method. We further surveyed people of the valley regarding their perception of vulture ecology and conservation, knowledge of diclofenac use within the valley, and burial of livestock carcasses. We detected eight species of vultures, four of which are currently threatened with extinction. White-rumped vulture Gyps bengalensis, Egyptian vulture Nephron percnopterus, and Himalayan vulture G. himalayensis were the most abundant. Almost all respondents (98%) had sighted the vultures in the wild. Formally educated respondents reported seeing vultures' slightly more than nonformally educated respondents. Fifty-eight percent respondents suspected habitat loss was the major threat for the vulture population decline in Pokhara Valley, and 97% respondents were not aware of any diclofenac use. The knowledge of vultures in people with different age groups suggests a more awareness programs are needed for local people, especially those who carry out animal husbandry and provide livestock to the vulture restaurant.

Eagles enter rotor-swept zones of wind turbines at rates that vary per turbine.

There is increasing pressure on wind energy facilities to manage or mitigate for wildlife collisions. However, little information exists regarding spatial and temporal variation in collision rates, meaning that mitigation is most often a blanket prescription. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated variation among turbines and months in an aspect of collision risk-probability of entry by an eagle into a rotor-swept zone (hereafter, "probability of entry"). We examined 10,222 eagle flight paths identified and recorded by an automated bird monitoring system at a wind energy facility in Wyoming, USA. Probabilities of entry per turbine-month combination were 4.03 times greater in some months than others, ranging 0.15 to 0.62. The overall probability of entry for the riskiest turbine (i.e., the one with the greatest probability of entry) was 2.39 times greater than the least-risky turbine. Our methodology describes large variation across turbines and months in the probability of entry. If subsequently combined with information on other sources of variation (i.e., weather, topography), this approach can identify risky versus safe situations for eagles under which cost of management, curtailment prescriptions, and collision risk can be simultaneously minimized.

Evaluating citizen science outreach: A case-study with The Peregrine Fund's American Kestrel Partnership.

Citizen science programs can be powerful drivers of knowledge and scientific understanding and, in recent decades, they have become increasingly popular. Conducting successful research with the aid of citizen scientists often rests on the efficacy of a program's outreach strategies. Program evaluation is increasingly recognized as a critical practice for citizen science practitioners to ensure that all efforts, including outreach, contribute to the overall goals of the program. The Peregrine Fund's American Kestrel Partnership (AKP) is one such citizen science program that relies on outreach to engage participants in effective monitoring of a declining falcon species. Here, we examine whether various communication strategies were associated with desired outreach goals of the AKP. We demonstrate how social media, webcams, discussion boards, and newsletters were associated with perception of learning, agreement with our conservation messaging, and participation in our box monitoring program. Our results thus help us to improve our outreach methodology, suggest areas where other citizen science programs might improve their outreach efforts, and highlight future research priorities.

Geographic range estimates and environmental requirements for the harpy eagle derived from spatial models of current and past distribution.

Understanding species-environment relationships is key to defining the spatial structure of species distributions and develop effective conservation plans. However, for many species, this baseline information does not exist. With reliable presence data, spatial models that predict geographic ranges and identify environmental processes regulating distribution are a cost-effective and rapid method to achieve this. Yet these spatial models are lacking for many rare and threatened species, particularly in tropical regions. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a Neotropical forest raptor of conservation concern with a continental distribution across lowland tropical forests in Central and South America. Currently, the harpy eagle faces threats from habitat loss and persecution and is categorized as Near-Threatened by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Within a point process modeling (PPM) framework, we use presence-only occurrences with climatic and topographical predictors to estimate current and past distributions and define environmental requirements using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. The current PPM prediction had high calibration accuracy (Continuous Boyce Index = 0.838) and was robust to null expectations (pROC ratio = 1.407). Three predictors contributed 96% to the PPM prediction, with Climatic Moisture Index the most important (72.1%), followed by minimum temperature of the warmest month (15.6%) and Terrain Roughness Index (8.3%). Assessing distribution in environmental space confirmed the same predictors explaining distribution, along with precipitation in the wettest month. Our reclassified binary model estimated a current range size 11% smaller than the current IUCN range polygon. Paleoclimatic projections combined with the current model predicted stable climatic refugia in the central Amazon, Guyana, eastern Colombia, and Panama. We propose a data-driven geographic range to complement the current IUCN range estimate and that despite its continental distribution, this tropical forest raptor is highly specialized to specific environmental requirements.

Raptor research during the COVID-19 pandemic provides invaluable opportunities for conservation biology.

Research is underway to examine how a wide range of animal species have responded to reduced levels of human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this perspective article, we argue that raptors (i.e., the orders Accipitriformes, Cariamiformes, Cathartiformes, Falconiformes, and Strigiformes) are particularly well-suited for investigating potential 'anthropause' effects: they are sensitive to environmental perturbation, affected by various human activities, and include many locally and globally threatened species. Lockdowns likely alter extrinsic factors that normally limit raptor populations. These environmental changes are in turn expected to influence - mediated by behavioral and physiological responses - the intrinsic (demographic) factors that ultimately determine raptor population levels and distributions. Using this population-limitation framework, we identify a range of research opportunities and conservation challenges that have arisen during the pandemic, related to changes in human disturbance, light and noise pollution, collision risk, road-kill availability, supplementary feeding, and persecution levels. Importantly, raptors attract intense research interest, with many professional and amateur researchers running long-term monitoring programs, often incorporating community-science components, advanced tracking technology and field-methodological approaches that allow flexible timing, enabling continued data collection before, during, and after COVID-19 lockdowns. To facilitate and coordinate global collaboration, we are hereby launching the 'Global Anthropause Raptor Research Network' (GARRN). We invite the international raptor research community to join this inclusive and diverse group, to tackle ambitious analyses across geographic regions, ecosystems, species, and gradients of lockdown perturbation. Under the most tragic of circumstances, the COVID-19 anthropause has afforded an invaluable opportunity to significantly boost global raptor conservation.

Sensory pollutants alter bird phenology and fitness across a continent.

Expansion of anthropogenic noise and night lighting across our planet1,2 is of increasing conservation concern3-6. Despite growing knowledge of physiological and behavioural responses to these stimuli from single-species and local-scale studies, whether these pollutants affect fitness is less clear, as is how and why species vary in their sensitivity to these anthropic stressors. Here we leverage a large citizen science dataset paired with high-resolution noise and light data from across the contiguous United States to assess how these stimuli affect reproductive success in 142 bird species. We find responses to both sensory pollutants linked to the functional traits and habitat affiliations of species. For example, overall nest success was negatively correlated with noise among birds in closed environments. Species-specific changes in reproductive timing and hatching success in response to noise exposure were explained by vocalization frequency, nesting location and diet. Additionally, increased light-gathering ability of species' eyes was associated with stronger advancements in reproductive timing in response to light exposure, potentially creating phenological mismatches7. Unexpectedly, better light-gathering ability was linked to reduced clutch failure and increased overall nest success in response to light exposure, raising important questions about how responses to sensory pollutants counteract or exacerbate responses to other aspects of global change, such as climate warming. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic noise and light can substantially affect breeding bird phenology and fitness, and underscore the need to consider sensory pollutants alongside traditional dimensions of the environment that typically inform biodiversity conservation.

Towards reconciliation of the four world bird lists: hotspots of disagreement in taxonomy of raptors.

There are currently four world bird lists referenced by different stakeholders including governments, academic journals, museums and citizen scientists. Consolidation of these lists is a conservation and research priority. In reconciling lists, care must be taken to ensure agreement in taxonomic concepts-the actual groups of individual organisms circumscribed by a given scientific epithet. Here, we compare species-level taxonomic concepts for raptors across the four lists, highlighting areas of disagreement. Of the 665 species-level raptor taxa observed at least once among the four lists, only 453 (68%) were consistent across all four lists. The Howard and Moore Checklist of the Birds of the World contains the fewest raptor species (528), whereas the International Ornithological Community World Bird List contains the most (580) and these two lists are in the most disagreement. Of the disagreements, 67% involved owls, and Indonesia was the country containing the most disagreed upon species (169). Finally, we calculated the amount of species-level agreement across lists for each avian order and found raptor orders spread throughout the rankings of agreement. Our results emphasize the need to reconcile the four world bird lists for all avian orders, highlight broad disagreements across lists and identify hotspots of disagreement for raptors, in particular.

Fireflies thwart bat attack with multisensory warnings.

Many defended animals prevent attacks by displaying warning signals that are highly conspicuous to their predators. We hypothesized that bioluminescing fireflies, widely known for their vibrant courtship signals, also advertise their noxiousness to echolocating bats. To test this postulate, we pit naïve big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) against chemically defended fireflies (Photinus pyralis) to examine whether and how these beetles transmit salient warnings to bats. We demonstrate that these nocturnal predators learn to avoid noxious fireflies using either vision or echolocation and that bats learn faster when integrating information from both sensory streams-providing fundamental evidence that multisensory integration increases the efficacy of warning signals in a natural predator-prey system. Our findings add support for a warning signal origin of firefly bioluminescence and suggest that bat predation may have driven evolution of firefly bioluminescence.

Acoustic environments matter: Synergistic benefits to humans and ecological communities.

Protected areas are critical locations worldwide for biodiversity preservation and offer important opportunities for increasingly urbanized humans to experience nature. However, biodiversity preservation and visitor access are often at odds and creative solutions are needed to safeguard protected area natural resources in the face of high visitor use. Managing human impacts to natural soundscapes could serve as a powerful tool for resolving these conflicting objectives. Here, we review emerging research that demonstrates that the acoustic environment is critical to wildlife and that sounds shape the quality of nature-based experiences for humans. Human-made noise is known to affect animal behavior, distributions and reproductive success, and the organization of ecological communities. Additionally, new research suggests that interactions with nature, including natural sounds, confer benefits to human welfare termed psychological ecosystem services. In areas influenced by noise, elevated human-made noise not only limits the variety and abundance of organisms accessible to outdoor recreationists, but also impairs their capacity to perceive the wildlife that remains. Thus soundscape changes can degrade, and potentially limit the benefits derived from experiences with nature via indirect and direct mechanisms. We discuss the effects of noise on wildlife and visitors through the concept of listening area and demonstrate how the perceptual worlds of both birds and humans are reduced by noise. Finally, we discuss how management of soundscapes in protected areas may be an innovative solution to safeguarding both and recommend several key questions and research directions to stimulate new research.

Anthropogenic noise changes arthropod abundances.

Anthropogenic noise is a widespread and growing form of sensory pollution associated with the expansion of human infrastructure. One specific source of constant and intense noise is that produced by compressors used for the extraction and transportation of natural gas. Terrestrial arthropods play a central role in many ecosystems, and given that numerous species rely upon airborne sounds and substrate-borne vibrations in their life histories, we predicted that increased background sound levels or the presence of compressor noise would influence their distributions. In the second largest natural gas field in the United States (San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA), we assessed differences in the abundances of terrestrial arthropod families and community structure as a function of compressor noise and background sound level. Using pitfall traps, we simultaneously sampled five sites adjacent to well pads that possessed operating compressors, and five alternate, quieter well pad sites that lacked compressors, but were otherwise similar. We found a negative association between sites with compressor noise or higher levels of background sound and the abundance of five arthropod families and one genus, a positive relationship between loud sites and the abundance of one family, and no relationship between noise level or compressor presence and abundance for six families and two genera. Despite these changes, we found no evidence of community turnover as a function of background sound level or site type (compressor and noncompressor). Our results indicate that anthropogenic noise differentially affects the abundances of some arthropod families. These preliminary findings point to a need to determine the direct and indirect mechanisms driving these observed responses. Given the diverse and important ecological functions provided by arthropods, changes in abundances could have ecological implications. Therefore, we recommend the consideration of arthropods in the environmental assessment of noise-producing infrastructure.

Simulations reveal the power and peril of artificial breeding sites for monitoring and managing animals.

Despite common use, the efficacy of artificial breeding sites (e.g., nest boxes, bat houses, artificial burrows) as tools for monitoring and managing animals depends on the demography of target populations and availability of natural sites. Yet, the conditions enabling artificial breeding sites to be useful or informative have yet to be articulated. We use a stochastic simulation model to determine situations where artificial breeding sites are either useful or disadvantageous for monitoring and managing animals. Artificial breeding sites are a convenient tool for monitoring animals and therefore occupancy of artificial breeding sites is often used as an index of population levels. However, systematic changes in availability of sites that are not monitored might induce trends in occupancy of monitored sites, a situation rarely considered by monitoring programs. We therefore examine how systematic changes in unmonitored sites could bias inference from trends in the occupancy of monitored sites. Our model also allows us to examine effects on population levels if artificial breeding sites either increase or decrease population vital rates (survival and fecundity). We demonstrate that trends in occupancy of monitored sites are misleading if the number of unmonitored sites changes over time. Further, breeding site fidelity can cause an initial lag in occupancy of newly installed sites that could be misinterpreted as an increasing population, even when the population has been continuously declining. Importantly, provisioning of artificial breeding sites only benefits populations if breeding sites are limiting or if artificial sites increase vital rates. There are many situations where installation of artificial breeding sites, and their use in monitoring, can have unintended consequences. Managers should therefore not assume that provision of artificial breeding sites will necessarily benefit populations. Further, trends in occupancy of artificial breeding sites should be interpreted in light of potential changes in the availability of unmonitored sites and the potential of lags in occupancy owing to site fidelity.

Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change.

Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (ß = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (ß = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on irrigated lands, or earlier prey abundance may release former constraints on other selective pressures to breed early, such as seasonal declines in fecundity or competition for high-quality mates. This is one of the first examples of an association between human adaptation to climate change and shifts in breeding phenology of wildlife.

A phantom road experiment reveals traffic noise is an invisible source of habitat degradation.

Decades of research demonstrate that roads impact wildlife and suggest traffic noise as a primary cause of population declines near roads. We created a "phantom road" using an array of speakers to apply traffic noise to a roadless landscape, directly testing the effect of noise alone on an entire songbird community during autumn migration. Thirty-one percent of the bird community avoided the phantom road. For individuals that stayed despite the noise, overall body condition decreased by a full SD and some species showed a change in ability to gain body condition when exposed to traffic noise during migratory stopover. We conducted complementary laboratory experiments that implicate foraging-vigilance behavior as one mechanism driving this pattern. Our results suggest that noise degrades habitat that is otherwise suitable, and that the presence of a species does not indicate the absence of an impact.

Moth tails divert bat attack: evolution of acoustic deflection.

Adaptations to divert the attacks of visually guided predators have evolved repeatedly in animals. Using high-speed infrared videography, we show that luna moths (Actias luna) generate an acoustic diversion with spinning hindwing tails to deflect echolocating bat attacks away from their body and toward these nonessential appendages. We pit luna moths against big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and demonstrate a survival advantage of ∼ 47% for moths with tails versus those that had their tails removed. The benefit of hindwing tails is equivalent to the advantage conferred to moths by bat-detecting ears. Moth tails lured bat attacks to these wing regions during 55% of interactions between bats and intact luna moths. We analyzed flight kinematics of moths with and without hindwing tails and suggest that tails have a minimal role in flight performance. Using a robust phylogeny, we find that long spatulate tails have independently evolved four times in saturniid moths, further supporting the selective advantage of this anti-bat strategy. Diversionary tactics are perhaps more common than appreciated in predator-prey interactions. Our finding suggests that focusing on the sensory ecologies of key predators will reveal such countermeasures in prey.

Field investigations of winter transmission of eastern equine encephalitis virus in Florida.

Studies investigating winter transmission of Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) were conducted in Hillsborough County, Florida. The virus was detected in Culiseta melanura and Anopheles quadrimaculatus in February 2012 and 2013, respectively. During the winter months, herons were the most important avian hosts for all mosquito species encountered. In collections carried out in the summer of 2011, blood meals taken from herons were still common, but less frequently encountered than in winter, with an increased frequency of mammalian- and reptile-derived meals observed in the summer. Four wading bird species (Black-crowned Night Heron [Nycticorax nycticorax], Yellow-crowned Night Heron [Nyctanassa violacea], Anhinga [Anhinga anhinga], and Great Blue Heron [Ardea herodias]) were most frequently fed upon by Cs. melanura and Culex erraticus, suggesting that these species may participate in maintaining EEEV during the winter in Florida.

Snake co-occurrence patterns are best explained by habitat and hypothesized effects of interspecific interactions.

Snakes often occur in species-rich assemblages, and sympatry is thought to be facilitated primarily by low diet overlap, not interspecific interactions. We selected, a priori, three species pairs consisting of species that are morphologically and taxonomically similar and may therefore be likely to engage in interspecific, consumptive competition. We then examined a large-scale database of snake detection/nondetection data and used occupancy modelling to determine whether these species occur together more or less frequently than expected by chance while accounting for variation in detection probability among species and incorporating important habitat categories in the models. For some snakes, we obtained evidence that the probabilities that habitat patches are used are influenced by the presence of potentially competing congeneric species. Specifically, timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) were less likely than expected by chance to use areas that also contained eastern diamond-backed rattlesnakes (Crotalus adamanteus) when the proportion of evergreen forest was relatively high. Otherwise, they occurred together more often than expected by chance. Complex relationships were revealed between habitat use, detection probabilities and occupancy probabilities of North American racers (Coluber constrictor) and coachwhips (Coluber flagellum) that indicated the probability of competitive exclusion increased with increasing area of grassland habitat, although there was some model uncertainty. Cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus or Pantherophis slowinskii) and ratsnakes (Pantherophis alleghaniensis, Pantherophis spiloides, or Pantherophis obsoletus) exhibited differences in habitat selection, but we obtained no evidence that patterns of use for this species pair were influenced by current interspecific interactions. Overall, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that competitive interactions influence snake assemblage composition; the strength of these effects was affected by landscape-scale habitat features. Furthermore, we suggest that current interspecific interactions may influence snake occupancy, challenging the paradigm that contemporary patterns of snake co-occurrence are largely a function of diet partitioning that arose over evolutionary time.

An experimental investigation into the effects of traffic noise on distributions of birds: avoiding the phantom road.

Many authors have suggested that the negative effects of roads on animals are largely owing to traffic noise. Although suggestive, most past studies of the effects of road noise on wildlife were conducted in the presence of the other confounding effects of roads, such as visual disturbance, collisions and chemical pollution among others. We present, to our knowledge, the first study to experimentally apply traffic noise to a roadless area at a landscape scale-thus avoiding the other confounding aspects of roads present in past studies. We replicated the sound of a roadway at intervals-alternating 4 days of noise on with 4 days off-during the autumn migratory period using a 0.5 km array of speakers within an established stopover site in southern Idaho. We conducted daily bird surveys along our 'Phantom Road' and in a nearby control site. We document over a one-quarter decline in bird abundance and almost complete avoidance by some species between noise-on and noise-off periods along the phantom road and no such effects at control sites-suggesting that traffic noise is a major driver of effects of roads on populations of animals.

Risk of exposure to eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus increases with the density of northern cardinals.

For a variety of infectious diseases, the richness of the community of potential host species has emerged as an important factor in pathogen transmission, whereby a higher richness of host species is associated with a lowered disease risk. The proposed mechanism driving this pattern is an increased likelihood in species-rich communities that infectious individuals will encounter dead-end hosts. Mosquito-borne pathogen systems potentially are exceptions to such "dilution effects" because mosquitoes vary their rates of use of vertebrate host species as bloodmeal sources relative to host availabilities. Such preferences may violate basic assumptions underlying the hypothesis of a dilution effect in pathogen systems. Here, we describe development of a model to predict exposure risk of sentinel chickens to eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in Walton County, Florida between 2009 and 2010 using avian species richness as well as densities of individual host species potentially important to EEEV transmission as candidate predictor variables. We found the highest support for the model that included the density of northern cardinals, a highly preferred host of mosquito vectors of EEEV, as a predictor variable. The highest-ranking model also included Culiseta melanura abundance as a predictor variable. These results suggest that mosquito preferences for vertebrate hosts influence pathogen transmission.