Anoxia decreases the magnitude of the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus sink in freshwaters.

Oxygen availability is decreasing in many lakes and reservoirs worldwide, raising the urgency for understanding how anoxia (low oxygen) affects coupled biogeochemical cycling, which has major implications for water quality, food webs, and ecosystem functioning. Although the increasing magnitude and prevalence of anoxia has been documented in freshwaters globally, the challenges of disentangling oxygen and temperature responses have hindered assessment of the effects of anoxia on carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations, stoichiometry (chemical ratios), and retention in freshwaters. The consequences of anoxia are likely severe and may be irreversible, necessitating ecosystem-scale experimental investigation of decreasing freshwater oxygen availability. To address this gap, we devised and conducted REDOX (the Reservoir Ecosystem Dynamic Oxygenation eXperiment), an unprecedented, 7-year experiment in which we manipulated and modeled bottom-water (hypolimnetic) oxygen availability at the whole-ecosystem scale in a eutrophic reservoir. Seven years of data reveal that anoxia significantly increased hypolimnetic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations and altered elemental stoichiometry by factors of 2-5× relative to oxic periods. Importantly, prolonged summer anoxia increased nitrogen export from the reservoir by six-fold and changed the reservoir from a net sink to a net source of phosphorus and organic carbon downstream. While low oxygen in freshwaters is thought of as a response to land use and climate change, results from REDOX demonstrate that low oxygen can also be a driver of major changes to freshwater biogeochemical cycling, which may serve as an intensifying feedback that increases anoxia in downstream waterbodies. Consequently, as climate and land use change continue to increase the prevalence of anoxia in lakes and reservoirs globally, it is likely that anoxia will have major effects on freshwater carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus budgets as well as water quality and ecosystem functioning.

Near-term phytoplankton forecasts reveal the effects of model time step and forecast horizon on predictability.

As climate and land use increase the variability of many ecosystems, forecasts of ecological variables are needed to inform management and use of ecosystem services. In particular, forecasts of phytoplankton would be especially useful for drinking water management, as phytoplankton populations are exhibiting greater fluctuations due to human activities. While phytoplankton forecasts are increasing in number, many questions remain regarding the optimal model time step (the temporal frequency of the forecast model output), time horizon (the length of time into the future a prediction is made) for maximizing forecast performance, as well as what factors contribute to uncertainty in forecasts and their scalability among sites. To answer these questions, we developed near-term, iterative forecasts of phytoplankton 1-14 days into the future using forecast models with three different time steps (daily, weekly, fortnightly), that included a full uncertainty partitioning analysis at two drinking water reservoirs. We found that forecast accuracy varies with model time step and forecast horizon, and that forecast models can outperform null estimates under most conditions. Weekly and fortnightly forecasts consistently outperformed daily forecasts at 7-day and 14-day horizons, a trend that increased up to the 14-day forecast horizon. Importantly, our work suggests that forecast accuracy can be increased by matching the forecast model time step to the forecast horizon for which predictions are needed. We found that model process uncertainty was the primary source of uncertainty in our phytoplankton forecasts over the forecast period, but parameter uncertainty increased during phytoplankton blooms and when scaling the forecast model to a new site. Overall, our scalability analysis shows promising results that simple models can be transferred to produce forecasts at additional sites. Altogether, our study advances our understanding of how forecast model time step and forecast horizon influence the forecastability of phytoplankton dynamics in aquatic systems and adds to the growing body of work regarding the predictability of ecological systems broadly.

Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability.

Near-term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross-ecosystem analysis of near-term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near-term (≤10-yr forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near-term ecological forecasting literature and to compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicated that near-term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, some best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1-7 d forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables.

Iron and manganese fluxes across the sediment-water interface in a drinking water reservoir.

The development of low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in the hypolimnion of drinking water reservoirs during thermal stratification can lead to the reduction of oxidized, insoluble iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) in sediments to soluble forms, which are then released into the water column. As metals degrade drinking water quality, robust measurements of metal fluxes under changing oxygen conditions are critical for optimizing water treatment. In this study, we conducted benthic flux chamber experiments in summer 2018 to directly quantify Fe and Mn fluxes at the sediment-water interface under different DO and redox conditions of a eutrophic drinking water reservoir with an oxygenation system (Falling Creek Reservoir, Vinton, VA, USA). Throughout the experiments, we monitored DO, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), water temperature, and pH in the chambers and compared the metal fluxes in the chambers with time-series of fluxes calculated using a hypolimnetic mass balance method. Our results showed that metal fluxes were highly variable during the monitoring period and were sensitive to redox conditions in the water column at the sediment-water interface. The time-series changes in fluxes and relationship to redox conditions are suggestive of "hot moments", short time periods of intense biogeochemical cycling. Although the metal concentrations and fluxes are specific to this site, the approaches for examining relationships between metals, oxygen concentrations and overall redox conditions can be applied by water utilities to improve water quality management of Fe and Mn.

Metalimnetic oxygen minima alter the vertical profiles of carbon dioxide and methane in a managed freshwater reservoir.

Metalimnetic oxygen minimum zones (MOMs) commonly develop during the summer stratified period in freshwater reservoirs because of both natural processes and water quality management. While several previous studies have examined the causes of MOMs, much less is known about their effects, especially on reservoir biogeochemistry. MOMs create distinct redox gradients in the water column which may alter the magnitude and vertical distribution of dissolved methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). The vertical distribution and diffusive efflux of CH4 and CO2 was monitored for two consecutive open-water seasons in a eutrophic reservoir that develops MOMs as a result of the operation of water quality engineering systems. During both summers, elevated concentrations of CH4 accumulated within the anoxic MOM, reaching a maximum of 120 µM, and elevated concentrations of CO2 accumulated in the oxic hypolimnion, reaching a maximum of 780 µM. Interestingly, the largest observed diffusive CH4 effluxes occurred before fall turnover in both years, while peak diffusive CO2 effluxes occurred both before and during turnover. Our data indicate that MOMs can substantially change the vertical distribution of CH4 and CO2 in the water column in reservoirs, resulting in the accumulation of CH4 in the metalimnion (vs. at the sediments) and CO2 in the hypolimnion.

A lake classification concept for a more accurate global estimate of the dissolved inorganic carbon export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters.

The magnitude of lateral dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters strongly influences the estimate of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. At present, no reliable number of this export is available, and the few studies estimating the lateral DIC export assume that all lakes on Earth function similarly. However, lakes can function along a continuum from passive carbon transporters (passive open channels) to highly active carbon transformers with efficient in-lake CO2 production and loss. We developed and applied a conceptual model to demonstrate how the assumed function of lakes in carbon cycling can affect calculations of the global lateral DIC export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters. Using global data on in-lake CO2 production by mineralization as well as CO2 loss by emission, primary production, and carbonate precipitation in lakes, we estimated that the global lateral DIC export can lie within the range of [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1 depending on the assumed function of lakes. Thus, the considered lake function has a large effect on the calculated lateral DIC export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters. We conclude that more robust estimates of CO2 sinks and sources will require the classification of lakes into their predominant function. This functional lake classification concept becomes particularly important for the estimation of future CO2 sinks and sources, since in-lake carbon transformation is predicted to be altered with climate change.

Chaoborus spp. Transport CH4 from the Sediments to the Surface Waters of a Eutrophic Reservoir, But Their Contribution to Water Column CH4 Concentrations and Diffusive Efflux Is Minor.

Chaoborus spp. (midge larvae) live in the anoxic sediments and hypolimnia of freshwater lakes and reservoirs during the day and migrate to the surface waters at night to feed on plankton. It has recently been proposed that Chaoborus take up methane (CH4) from the sediments in their tracheal gas sacs, use this acquired buoyancy to ascend into the surface waters, and then release the CH4, thereby serving as a CH4 "pump" to the atmosphere. We tested this hypothesis using diel surveys and seasonal monitoring, as well as incubations of Chaoborus to measure CH4 transport in their gas sacs at different depths and times in a eutrophic reservoir. We found that Chaoborus transported CH4 from the hypolimnion to the lower epilimnion at dusk, but the overall rate of CH4 transport was minor, and incubations revealed substantial variability in CH4 transport over space and time. We calculated that Chaoborus transport ∼0.1 mmol CH4 m-2 yr-1 to the epilimnion in our study reservoir, a very low proportion (<1%) of total CH4 diffusive flux during the summer stratified period. Our data further indicate that CH4 transport by Chaoborus is sensitive to water column mixing, Chaoborus density, and Chaoborus species identity.

Effectiveness of hypolimnetic oxygenation for preventing accumulation of Fe and Mn in a drinking water reservoir.

The accumulation of Fe and Mn in seasonally stratified drinking water reservoirs adversely impacts water quality. To control issues with Fe and Mn at the source, some drinking water utilities have deployed hypolimnetic oxygenation systems to create well-oxygenated conditions in the water column that are favorable for the oxidation, and thus removal, of Fe and Mn. However, in addition to being controlled by dissolved oxygen (DO), Fe and Mn concentrations are also influenced by pH and metal-oxidizing microorganisms. We studied the response of Fe and Mn concentrations to hypolimnetic oxygenation in a shallow drinking water reservoir in Vinton, Virginia, USA by sequentially activating and deactivating an oxygenation system over two summers. We found that maintaining well-oxygenated conditions effectively prevented the accumulation of soluble Fe in the hypolimnion. However, while the rate of Mn oxidation increased under well-oxygenated conditions, soluble Mn still accumulated in the slightly acidic to neutral (pH 5.6 to 7.5) hypolimnion. In parallel, we conducted laboratory incubation experiments, which showed that the presence of Mn-oxidizing microorganisms increased the rate of Mn oxidation in comparison with rates under oxic, abiotic conditions. Combined, our field and laboratory results demonstrate that increasing DO concentrations in the water column is important for stimulating the oxidation of Fe and Mn, but that the successful management of Mn is also tied to the activity of Mn-oxidizing organisms in the water column and favorable (neutral to alkaline) pH.