The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a significant clinical and economic burden to healthcare systems worldwide, which increases considerably with progression towards kidney failure. The DAPA-CKD trial demonstrated that patients with or without type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were treated with dapagliflozin experienced slower progression of CKD versus placebo. Understanding the effect of long-term treatment with dapagliflozin on the timing of kidney failure beyond trial follow-up can assist informed decision-making by healthcare providers and patients. The study objective was therefore to extrapolate the outcome-based clinical benefits of treatment with dapagliflozin in patients with CKD via a time-to-event analysis using trial data. METHODS: Patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD trial were used to parameterise a closed cohort-level partitioned survival model that predicted time-to-event for key trial endpoints (kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure). Data were pooled with a subpopulation of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial to create a combined CKD population spanning a range of CKD stages; a parallel survival analysis was conducted in this population. RESULTS: In the DAPA-CKD and pooled CKD populations, treatment with dapagliflozin delayed time to first event for kidney failure, all-cause mortality, sustained decline in kidney function, and hospitalisation for heart failure. Attenuation of CKD progression was predicted to slow the time to kidney failure by 6.6 years (dapagliflozin: 25.2, 95%CI: 19.0-31.5; standard therapy: 18.5, 95%CI: 14.7-23.4) in the DAPA-CKD population. A similar result was observed in the pooled CKD population with an estimated delay of 6.3 years (dapagliflozin: 36.0, 95%CI: 31.9-38.3; standard therapy: 29.6, 95%CI: 25.5-34.7). CONCLUSION: Treatment with dapagliflozin over a lifetime time horizon may considerably delay the mean time to adverse clinical outcomes for patients who would go on to experience them, including those at modest risk of progression.

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction: A pooled analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER data.

AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in addition to usual care, compared with usual care alone, in a large population of patients with heart failure (HF), spanning the full range of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patient-level data were pooled from HF trials (DAPA-HF, DELIVER) to generate a population including HF with reduced, mildly reduced and preserved LVEF, to increase statistical power and enable exploration of interactions among LVEF, renal function and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, as they are relevant determinants of health status in this population. Survival and HF recurrent event risk equations were derived and applied to a lifetime horizon Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score quartiles; costs and utilities were in the UK setting. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £6470 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, well below the UK willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20 000/QALY gained. In interaction sensitivity analyses, the highest ICER was observed for elderly patients with preserved LVEF (£16 624/QALY gained), and ranged to a region of dominance (increased QALYs, decreased costs) for patients with poorer renal function and reduced/mildly reduced LVEF. Results across the patient characteristic interaction plane were mostly between £5000 and £10 000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin plus usual care, versus usual care alone, yielded results well below the WTP threshold for the UK across a heterogeneous population of patients with HF including the full spectrum of LVEF, and is likely a cost-effective intervention.

Dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: cost-effectiveness beyond the DAPA-CKD trial.

Background: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial enrolled patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio >200 mg/g. The Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes, a higher range of kidney function and no albuminuria criterion. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in a broad chronic kidney disease population based on these two trials in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan. Methods: We adapted a published Markov model based on the DAPA-CKD trial but to a broader population, irrespective of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, using patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD and DECLARE-TIMI 58 trials. We sourced cost and utility inputs from literature and the DAPA-CKD trial. The analysis considered healthcare system perspectives over a lifetime horizon. Results: Treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to attenuate disease progression and extend projected life expectancy by 0.64 years (12.5 versus 11.9 years, undiscounted) in the UK, with similar estimates in other settings. Clinical benefits translated to mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY; discounted) gains between 0.45 and 0.68 years across countries. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan ($10 676/QALY, $14 479/QALY, $7771/QALY and $13 723/QALY, respectively) were cost-effective at country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds. Subgroup analyses suggest dapagliflozin is cost-effective irrespective of urinary albumin-to-creatine ratio and type 2 diabetes status. Conclusion: Treatment with dapagliflozin may be cost-effective for patients across a wider spectrum of estimated glomerular filtration rates and albuminuria than previously demonstrated, with or without type 2 diabetes, in the UK, Spanish, Italian and Japanese healthcare systems.

Translating the efficacy of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease to lower healthcare resource utilization and costs: a medical care cost offset analysis.

AIMS: Dapagliflozin was approved for use in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on results of the DAPA-CKD trial, demonstrating attenuation of CKD progression and reduced risk of cardio-renal outcomes and all-cause mortality (ACM) versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy. The study objective was to assess the potential medical care cost offsets associated with reduced rates of cardio-renal outcomes across 31 countries and regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A comparative cost-determination framework estimated outcome-related costs of dapagliflozin plus standard therapy versus standard therapy alone over a 3-year horizon based on the DAPA-CKD trial. Incidence rates of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), acute kidney injury (AKI), and ACM were estimated for a treated population of 100,000 patients. Associated medical care costs for non-fatal events were calculated using sources from a review of publicly available data specific to each considered setting. RESULTS: Patients treated with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy experienced fewer incidents of ESKD (7,221 vs 10,767; number needed to treat, NNT: 28), HHF (2,370 vs 4,684; NNT: 43), AKI (4,110 vs. 5,819; NNT: 58), and ACM (6,383 vs 8,874; NNT: 40) per 100,000 treated patients versus those treated with standard therapy alone. Across 31 countries/regions, reductions in clinical events were associated with a 33% reduction in total costs, or a cumulative mean medical care cost offset of $264 million per 100,000 patients over 3 years. LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: This analysis is limited by the quality of country/region-specific data available for medical care event costs. Based on the DAPA-CKD trial, we show that treatment with dapagliflozin may prevent cardio-renal event incidence at the population level, which could have positive effects upon healthcare service delivery worldwide. The analysis was restricted to outcome-associated costs and did not consider the cost of drug treatments and disease management.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a high clinical, economic, and societal burden and it affects approximately 8-16% of the global population. The progressive nature of CKD may lead to complications, co-morbidities, and mortality, costing healthcare systems millions and consuming a large proportion of healthcare resources. Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor, has been demonstrated to slow CKD progression and reduce cardio-renal complications, as demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial. With the emergence of dapagliflozin as a treatment for CKD, it is important for clinicians and healthcare providers to understand how effective treatment can positively affect short-term healthcare service delivery and associated costs. This medical care cost offset modelling analysis considers a scalable population of 100,000 patients in 31 countries/regions worldwide. The analysis estimates treatment with dapagliflozin plus standard therapy to be offset by a 33% reduction in costs associated with key cardio-renal outcomes, translating to an average $264 million in cost offsets per 100,000 treated patients. This modelling analysis of pivotal trial data shows dapagliflozin could have considerable benefits to healthcare systems worldwide that are under strain from the rising burden of CKD.

The cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction: A European health-economic analysis of the DELIVER trial.

AIMS: To determine the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, added to usual care, in patients with heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction for the UK, German and Spanish payers using detailed patient-level data from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: A lifetime Markov state-transition cohort model was developed. Quartiles of the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score (KCCQ-TSS) defined health states and monthly transition count data informed transition probabilities. Multivariable generalized estimating equations captured the incidence of HF hospitalizations and urgent HF visits, while cardiovascular deaths and all-cause mortality were estimated using adjusted parametric survival models. Health state costs were assigned to KCCQ-TSS quartiles (2021 British pound [GBP]/Euro) and patient-reported outcomes were sourced from DELIVER. Future values of costs and effects were discounted according to country-specific rates. In the UK, dapagliflozin treatment was predicted to increase quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life-years by 0.231 and 0.354, respectively, and extend the time spent in the best quartile of KCCQ-TSS by 4.2 months. Comparable outcomes were projected for Germany and Spain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £7761, €9540 and €5343/QALY in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively. According to regional willingness-to-pay thresholds, 91%, 89% and 92% of simulations in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively, were cost-effective following probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Dapagliflozin, added to usual care, is very likely cost-effective for HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction in several European countries.

Estimating the value of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors within the context of contemporary guidelines and the totality of evidence.

AIMS: To comprehensively estimate the cost-effectiveness of sodium glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor usage in the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at established clinical review points, incorporating the totality of proven health benefits. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study considered the cardio- and reno-protective effects of SGLT2 inhibitors using the Cardiff type 2 diabetes model. Conventional cost-effectiveness evaluations were undertaken for eligible populations at relevant intensification points reflecting the 2022 guidelines versus the 2015 National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio lifetime trajectories and timepoints for complete cost-offset were estimated for each pathway. Treatment effects, utility decrements and costs (applied additively and discounted at 3.5%) were sourced from the published literature. RESULTS: For all subpopulations on treatment pathways reflecting the NG28-2022 guidelines, SGLT2 inhibitor introduction was cost-effective, becoming cost-saving between 2 and 16 years post-initiation. Despite increases in pharmacy costs, predicted lifetime costs were lower than for pathways reflecting the NG28-2015 guidelines, driven by a reduction in heart failure hospitalization and chronic kidney disease costs. Incremental gains in quality-adjusted life years (ranging from 0.58-1.12) resulted in dominance for the updated NG28-2022 guidance in all scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that SGLT2 inhibitors have the potential to lower healthcare costs while improving health outcomes in eligible patient subpopulations.

Cost-effectiveness of immediate initiation of dapagliflozin in patients with a history of heart failure.

AIMS: To compare the cost-effectiveness of immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin treatment in patients with a history of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from the UK, Canadian, German, and Spanish healthcare perspectives. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision-analytic Markov model with health states defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores, type 2 diabetes mellitus status and incidence of heart failure (HF) events. Patient-level data for patients with prior HHF from the Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) trial were used to inform the model inputs on clinical events and utility values. Healthcare costs were sourced from the relevant national reference databases and the published literature. Compared to standard therapy, immediate initiation of dapagliflozin decreased HHF (187 events), urgent HF visits (32 events) and cardiovascular mortality (18 events). Standard therapy was associated with lifetime costs of £13 224 and 4.02 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Twelve-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin was associated with total discounted lifetime costs and QALYs of £16 660 and 4.61, respectively, compared to £16 912 and 4.66, respectively, for immediate initiation. Compared to standard therapy, immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5779 and £5821, respectively. Compared to 12-month delayed initiation, immediate initiation of dapagliflozin had an ICER of £5263. Results were similar from the Canadian, German, and Spanish healthcare perspectives. CONCLUSION: Both immediate and 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin are cost-effective. However, immediate initiation provides greater clinical benefits, with almost 10% additional QALYs gain, compared to 12-month delayed initiation of dapagliflozin and should be considered standard of care.

Impact of ferric carboxymaltose for iron deficiency at discharge after heart failure hospitalization: a European multinational economic evaluation.

AIMS: Iron deficiency (ID) is comorbid in up to 50% patients with heart failure (HF) and exacerbates disease burden. Ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) reduced HF hospitalizations and improved quality of life when used to treat ID at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute HF with left ventricular ejection fraction <50% in the AFFIRM-AHF trial. We quantified the effect of FCM on burden of disease and the wider pharmacoeconomic implications in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Sweden. METHODS AND RESULTS: The per country eligible population was calculated, aligning with the 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF guidelines and the AFFIRM-AHF trial. Changes in burden of disease with FCM versus standard of care (SoC) were represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), hospitalization episodes and bed days, using AFFIRM-AHF data. A Markov model was adapted to each country to estimate cost-effectiveness and combined with epidemiology data to calculate the impact on healthcare budgets. Between 335 (Sweden) and 13 237 (Germany) DALYs were predicted to be avoided with FCM use annually. Fewer hospitalizations and shorter lengths of stay associated with FCM compared to SoC were projected to result in substantial annual savings in bed days, from 5215 in Sweden to 205 630 in Germany. In all countries, FCM was predicted to be dominant (cost saving with gains in quality-adjusted life years), resulting in net savings to healthcare budgets within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive evaluation of FCM therapy highlights the potential benefits that could be realized through implementation of the ESC HF guideline recommendations regarding ID treatment.

Extrapolated longer-term effects of the DAPA-CKD trial: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial assessed dapagliflozin versus placebo, in addition to standard therapy, in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and albuminuria, and was terminated prematurely due to overwhelming efficacy. The study objective was to model the long-term clinical outcomes of DAPA-CKD beyond the trial follow-up. METHODS: A Markov model extrapolated event incidence per 1000 patients and CKD progression rates for patients receiving dapagliflozin or placebo over a 10-year time horizon. We derived treatment-specific CKD stage transition matrices using DAPA-CKD trial data. We extrapolated relevant efficacy endpoints using parametric survival equations for all-cause mortality and generalized estimating equations for recurrent events. RESULTS: When extrapolated over a 10-year period, patients randomized to dapagliflozin spent more time in CKD stages 1-3 and less in stages 4-5 than placebo [0.65 (95% CrI 0.41, 0.90) and -0.23 (95% CrI -0.45, 0.00) years per patient, respectively]. Dapagliflozin prevented an estimated 83 deaths and 51 patients initiating kidney replacement therapy per 1000 patients over 10 years. Predicted rates of hospitalized heart failure and abrupt declines in kidney function were reduced (19 and 39 estimated events per 1000 patients, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Adding dapagliflozin to standard therapeutic management of CKD is expected to have long-term cardiorenal benefit beyond what has been demonstrated in the DAPA-CKD trial, with patients predicted to live longer with fewer complications.

Clinical and economic impact of ferric carboxymaltose treatment for iron deficiency in patients stabilized following acute heart failure: a multinational study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate clinical events and evaluate the financial implications of introducing ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) to treat iron deficiency (ID) at discharge in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <50% in the UK, Switzerland and Italy. METHODS: A decision analytic cost-offset model was developed to evaluate the costs associated with introducing FCM for all eligible patients in three countries compared to a world without FCM, over a five-year time horizon. Data from AFFIRM-AHF clinical trial were used to model clinical outcomes, using an established cohort state-transition Markov model. Country-specific prevalence estimates were derived using data from real-world studies to extrapolate number of events and consequent cost totals to the population at risk on a national scale. RESULTS: The cost-offset modeling demonstrated that FCM is projected to be a cost-saving intervention in all three country settings over a five-year time horizon. Savings were driven primarily by reduced hospitalizations and avoided cardiovascular deaths, with net cost savings of -£14,008,238, -CHF25,456,455 and -€105,295,146 incurred to the UK, Switzerland and Italy, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Although AFFIRM-AHF was a multinational trial, efficacy data per country was not sufficiently large to enable country-specific analysis, therefore overall clinical parameters have been assumed to apply to all countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides further evidence of the potential cost savings achievable by treating ID with FCM at discharge in patients hospitalized for AHF with LVEF <50%. The value of FCM treatment within the healthcare systems of the UK, Switzerland and Italy was demonstrated even within a limited time frame of one year, with consistent cost savings indicated over a longer term.

Disutility of injectable therapies in obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus: general population preferences in the UK, Canada, and China.

INTRODUCTION: Once-daily and once-weekly injectable glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist therapies (GLP-1 RAs) are established in obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In T2DM, both once-daily and once-weekly insulin are expected to be available. This study elicited utilities associated with these treatment regimens from members of the general public in the UK, Canada, and China, to quantify administration-related disutility of more-frequent injectable treatment, and allow economic modelling. METHODS: Two anchor states (no pharmacological treatment), and seven treatment states (daily oral tablet and generic injectable regimens of variable frequency), with identical outcomes were tested A broadly representative sample of the general public in each country participated (excluding individuals with diabetes or pharmacologically treated obesity). An adapted Measurement and Valuation of Health protocol was administered 1:1 in web-enabled interviews by trained moderators: visual analogue scale (VAS) as a "warm-up", and time trade-off (TTO) using a 20-year time horizon for utility elicitation. RESULTS: A total of 310 individuals participated. The average disutility of once-daily versus once-weekly GLP-1 RA was - 0.048 in obesity and - 0.033 in T2DM; the corresponding average disutility for insulin was - 0.064. Disutilities were substantially greater in China, relative to UK and Canada. DISCUSSION: Within obesity and T2DM, more-frequent treatment health states had lower utility. Scores by VAS also followed a logical order. The generated utility values are suitable for use in modelling injectable therapy regimens in obesity and T2DM, due to the use of generic descriptions and assumption of equal efficacy. Future research could examine the reasons for greater administration-related disutility in China.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin as a Treatment for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Health-Economic Analysis of DAPA-CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: CKD imposes a significant burden on patients and health care providers, particularly upon reaching kidney failure when patients may require KRT. The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial demonstrated that dapagliflozin, with standard therapy, reduced CKD progression and KRT requirement. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for the treatment of CKD from payer perspectives in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We constructed a lifetime Markov model to characterize outcomes in patients with CKD on the basis of the DAPA-CKD trial. Health states were defined by eGFR level and KRT type. Direct health care costs and utility values were sourced from published literature and the DAPA-CKD trial, respectively. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum in the United Kingdom and 3% in Germany and Spain. RESULTS: In patients eligible for the DAPA-CKD trial, treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to reduce rates of CKD progression, with patients predicted to spend 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.8 to 2.4) more years in the eGFR range 15-89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 versus standard therapy alone (12.1; 95% credibility interval, 8.9 to 14.1 versus 10.4; 95% credibility interval, 7.7 to 12.4 years). Life expectancy (undiscounted) was correspondingly predicted to increase by 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.7 to 2.5) years (15.5; 95% credibility interval, 11.1 to 18.2 versus 13.8; 95% credibility interval, 9.9 to 16.5 years). This in addition to reduced incidence of adverse clinical outcomes, including hospitalization for heart failure, resulted in modeled quality-adjusted life year (discounted) gains between 0.82 (95% credibility interval, 0.38 to 1.18) and 1.00 (95% credibility interval, 0.46 to 1.41). These gains translated to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $8280, $17,623, and $11,687 in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, respectively, indicating cost-effectiveness at willingness-to-pay thresholds (United Kingdom: $27,510 per quality-adjusted life year; Germany and Spain: $35,503 per quality-adjusted life year). CONCLUSIONS: In patients meeting the eligibility requirements for the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment within the UK, German, and Spanish health care systems. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD), NCT03036150.

Cost effectiveness of sodium zirconium cyclosilicate for the treatment of hyperkalaemia in patients with CKD in Norway and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalaemia is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with a range of adverse outcomes. Historically, options for management of chronic hyperkalaemia in the outpatient setting have been limited. Novel oral potassium binders provide a safe, effective therapy for maintenance of normokalaemia in patients with CKD, but despite being approved for reimbursement in many countries, prescription data indicate uptake has been slower than anticipated. This analysis aimed to demonstrate the value to patients and the healthcare system of the potassium binder sodium zirconium cyclosilicate (SZC) for treatment of hyperkalaemia in patients with CKD in Norway and Sweden. METHODS: A published simulation model reflecting the natural history of CKD was adapted to the Norwegian and Swedish settings and used to predict long-term health economic outcomes of treating hyperkalaemia with SZC versus usual care. RESULTS: SZC was highly cost effective compared to usual care in Norway and Sweden, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of €14,838/QALY in Norway and €14,352/QALY in Sweden, over a lifetime horizon. The acquisition cost of SZC was largely offset by cost savings associated with reductions in hyperkalaemia events and hospitalisations; a modest overall increase in costs was predominantly attributable to costs associated with gains in life years compared with usual care. SZC remained cost effective in all scenarios examined. CONCLUSIONS: SZC was estimated to be cost effective for treating hyperkalaemia. Consequently, improving access to a clinically effective, safe and cost-effective therapy, such as SZC, may result in considerable benefits for CKD patients with hyperkalaemia.

Clinical Trial Considerations in Developing Treatments for Early Stages of Common, Chronic Kidney Diseases: A Scientific Workshop Cosponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and the US Food and Drug Administration.

In the past decade, advances in the validation of surrogate end points for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression have heightened interest in evaluating therapies in early CKD. In December 2020, the National Kidney Foundation sponsored a scientific workshop in collaboration with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to explore patient, provider, and payor perceptions of the value of treating early CKD. The workshop reviewed challenges for trials in early CKD, including trial designs, identification of high-risk populations, and cost-benefit and safety considerations. Over 90 people representing a range of stakeholders including experts in clinical trials, nephrology, cardiology and endocrinology, patient advocacy organizations, patients, payors, health economists, regulators and policy makers attended a virtual meeting. There was consensus among the attendees that there is value to preventing the development and treating the progression of early CKD in people who are at high risk for progression, and that surrogate end points should be used to establish efficacy. Attendees also concluded that cost analyses should be holistic and include aspects beyond direct savings for treatment of kidney failure; and that safety data should be collected outside/beyond the duration of a clinical trial. Successful drug development and implementation of effective therapies will require collaboration across sponsors, patients, patient advocacy organizations, medical community, regulators, and payors.

Serum potassium variability as a predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with cardiorenal disease or diabetes: a retrospective UK database study.

Background: Hyperkalaemia is an electrolyte abnormality associated with adverse clinical outcomes; however, few studies have investigated the relationship with patterns of hyperkalaemia over time. This study explored the impact of time spent in a hyperkalaemic state and variability of serum potassium (sK+) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), resistant hypertension, heart failure and diabetes. Methods: Cohorts comprised adult patients diagnosed with CKD stage 3+, resistant hypertension, heart failure or diabetes, and/or renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor prescription, between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2018, from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Associations between percentage of follow-up spent in a hyperkalaemic state (sK+ ≥5.0 mmol/L, ≥5.5 mmol/L, ≥6.0 mmol/L) or sK+ variability (standard deviation above or below median standard deviation) and all-cause mortality or MACE were investigated. Results: For sK+ ≥5.0 mmol/L, time spent in a hyperkalaemic state was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality across all cohorts. For higher sK+ thresholds, this trend was attenuated or reversed; for time spent in a hyperkalaemic state at sK+ ≥6.0 mmol/L, an increased risk of mortality was seen in the overall cohort and for patients with diabetes, resistant hypertension or prescribed renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, with no consistent association seen for patients with CKD or heart failure. Risk of MACE in the overall cohort and in patients with CKD, diabetes or resistant hypertension increased with time spent in a hyperkalaemic state at all sK+ thresholds; however, no correlation was seen in patients with heart failure or those receiving dialysis. High sK+ variability was associated with a higher risk of MACE compared with low sK+ variability across most sK+ categories in the overall population and in all disease cohorts, except patients on dialysis; however, no association between sK+ variability and all-cause mortality was observed. Conclusions: Patterns of hyperkalaemia, including time spent in hyperkalaemia and sK+ variability, are associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Regular monitoring of sK+ in high-risk populations in broader community, primary care and outpatient settings may enable guideline-recommended management of hyperkalaemia and help avoid adverse events.

Cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease: a European economic evaluation of the THEMIS trial.

AIMS: To conduct a health economic evaluation of ticagrelor in patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) from a multinational payer perspective. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of ticagrelor were evaluated in the overall effect of Ticagrelor on Health Outcomes in Diabetes Mellitus Patients Intervention Study (THEMIS) trial population and in the predefined patient group with prior percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model was developed to extrapolate patient outcomes over a lifetime horizon. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), which were compared with conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds [€47 000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in Sweden and €30 000/QALY in other countries].Treatment with ticagrelor resulted in QALY gains of up to 0.045 in the overall population and 0.099 in patients with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Increased costs and benefits translated to ICERs ranged between €27 894 and €42 252/QALY across Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain in the overall population. In patients with prior PCI, estimated ICERs improved to €18 449, €20 632, €20 233, and €13 228/QALY in Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain, respectively, driven by higher event rates and treatment benefit. CONCLUSION: Based on THEMIS results, ticagrelor plus aspirin compared with aspirin alone may be cost-effective in some European countries in patients with T2DM and CAD and no prior myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. Additionally, ticagrelor is likely to be cost-effective across European countries in patients with a history of PCI.

The Population-Wide Risk-Benefit Profile of Extending the Primary COVID-19 Vaccine Course Compared with an mRNA Booster Dose Program.

The vaccination program is reducing the burden of COVID-19. However, recently, COVID-19 infections have been increasing across Europe, providing evidence that vaccine efficacy is waning. Consequently, booster doses are required to restore immunity levels. However, the relative risk-benefit ratio of boosters, compared to pursuing a primary course in the unvaccinated population, remains uncertain. In this study, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 was used to investigate the impact of COVID-19 vaccine waning on disease burden, the benefit of a booster vaccine program compared to targeting the unvaccinated population, and the population-wide risk-benefit profile of vaccination. Our data demonstrates that the rate of vaccine efficacy waning has a significant impact on COVID-19 hospitalisations with the greatest effect in populations with lower vaccination coverage. There was greater benefit associated with a booster vaccination strategy compared to targeting the unvaccinated population, once >50% of the population had received their primary vaccination course. The population benefits of vaccination (reduced hospitalisations, long-COVID and deaths) outweighed the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis by an order of magnitude. Vaccination is important in ending the COVID-19 pandemic sooner, and the reduction in hospitalisations, death and long-COVID associated with vaccination significantly outweigh any risks. Despite these obvious benefits some people are vaccine reluctant, and as such remain unvaccinated. However, when most of a population have been vaccinated, a focus on a booster vaccine strategy for this group is likely to offer greater value, than targeting the proportion of the population who choose to remain unvaccinated.

Cardiorenal disease in the United States: Future health care burden and potential impact of novel therapies.

BACKGROUND: Currently, concerted efforts to identify, prevent, and treat type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) comorbidities are lacking at the institutional level, with emphasis placed on individual specialties. An integrated approach to tackle T2DM, HF, and CKD within the context of cardiorenal disease has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce costs at the system level. OBJECTIVE: To synthesize published evidence describing the burden of those diagnosed with T2DM, HF, and CKD in the United States as individual discrete chronic conditions, in order to evaluate the potential economic impact of novel therapies in this population. METHODS: We developed a compartmental Markov model with an annual time cycle to model an evolving prevalent US patient population with T2DM, HF, or CKD over the period 2021-2030 (either in isolation or combined). The model was used to explore the potential impact of novel therapies such as sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on future disease burden, by extrapolating the results of relevant clinical trials to representative patient populations. RESULTS: The model estimates that total prevalence across all disease states will have increased by 28% in 2030. Cumulatively, the direct health care cost of cardiorenal disease between 2021 and 2030 is estimated at $4.8 trillion. However, treatment with dapagliflozin has the potential to reduce disease prevalence by 8.0% and estimated cumulative service delivery costs by 3.6% by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Considering a holistic approach when managing patients with cardiorenal disease offers an opportunity to reduce the disease burden over the next 10 years in the US population. DISCLOSURES: This work was funded by AstraZeneca, which provided support for data analysis. McEwan, Morgan, and Boyce are employees of Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd., Cardiff, UK, which received fees from AstraZeneca in relation to this study. Song and Huang are employees of AstraZeneca. Bergenheim is an employee of AstraZeneca and holds AstraZeneca stocks/stock options. Green has no conflicts of interest to declare.

Serum potassium as a predictor of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with increasing comorbidity burden.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to establish whether patients with multiple comorbidities may be at elevated risk of hyperkalaemia (HK), a potentially life-threatening electrolyte imbalance, and the associated adverse clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a retrospective, observational cohort study using UK primary and secondary care data. Adult patients with at least one of: resistant hypertension, chronic kidney disease stage 3+, dialysis, heart failure (HF), and diabetes, were eligible for inclusion. According to their diagnoses, patients were grouped into overlapping cohorts that were updated as multimorbidity progressed. Outcomes of interest were incident HK, all-cause mortality (ACM), and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). A total of 673 686 patients met the eligibility criteria, 36.3% of whom developed multimorbidity during the study period. A consistent U-shaped association was observed between serum K+ level and adjusted incidence of ACM and MACE. Hyperkalaemia was progressively more common with increasing Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Relative to a CCI <3, scores of ≥3 to <6, and ≥6 were associated with 2.9- and 6.2-fold increases, respectively, in crude HK (serum K+ ≥5.0 mmol/L) incidence rate. In all condition-based cohorts except for HF, there was a clear correlation between increasing CCI and the risk of ACM and MACE associated with hypokalaemia and HK. CONCLUSION: Patients with a higher CCI are at an increased risk of developing HK and appear more prone to adverse clinical outcomes associated with abnormal serum K+ levels, warranting additional routine clinical monitoring.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge.

BACKGROUND: Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. METHODS: Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. RESULTS: Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.