Risk Factors for Death Among the First 80 543 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases in China: Relationships Between Age, Underlying Disease, Case Severity, and Region.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology remains incomplete and crucial questions persist. We aimed to examine risk factors for COVID-19 death. METHODS: A total of 80 543 COVID-19 cases reported in China, nationwide, through 8 April 2020 were included. Risk factors for death were investigated by Cox proportional hazards regression and stratified analyses. RESULTS: Overall national case-fatality ratio (CFR) was 5.64%. Risk factors for death were older age (≥80: adjusted hazard ratio, 12.58; 95% confidence interval, 6.78-23.33), presence of underlying disease (1.33; 1.19-1.49), worse case severity (severe: 3.86; 3.15-4.73; critical: 11.34; 9.22-13.95), and near-epicenter region (Hubei: 2.64; 2.11-3.30; Wuhan: 6.35; 5.04-8.00). CFR increased from 0.35% (30-39 years) to 18.21% (≥70 years) without underlying disease. Regardless of age, CFR increased from 2.50% for no underlying disease to 7.72% for 1, 13.99% for 2, and 21.99% for ≥3 underlying diseases. CFR increased with worse case severity from 2.80% (mild) to 12.51% (severe) and 48.60% (critical), regardless of region. Compared with other regions, CFR was much higher in Wuhan regardless of case severity (mild: 3.83% vs 0.14% in Hubei and 0.03% elsewhere; moderate: 4.60% vs 0.21% and 0.06%; severe: 15.92% vs 5.84% and 1.86%; and critical: 58.57% vs 49.80% and 18.39%). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients regardless of underlying disease and patients with underlying disease regardless of age were at elevated risk of death. Higher death rates near the outbreak epicenter and during the surge of cases reflect the deleterious effects of allowing health systems to become overwhelmed.

Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi Market, China: a modeling study to inform future resurgence response.

BACKGROUND: A local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case confirmed on June 11, 2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing, China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were used to contain the source in Xinfadi (XFD) market. To rapidly control the outbreak, both traditional and newly introduced NPIs including large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was developed and applied to evaluate a range of different scenarios from the public health perspective. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission (i.e., number of cases in the outbreak) and endpoint of transmission (i.e., date of containment). The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). RESULTS: Our results indicated that a 3 to 14 day delay in the identification of XFD as the infection source and initiation of NPIs would have caused a 3 to 28-fold increase in total case number (31-77 day delay in containment). A failure to implement the quarantine scheme employed in the XFD outbreak for defined key population would have caused a fivefold greater number of cases (73 day delay in containment). Similarly, failure to implement the quarantine plan executed in the XFD outbreak for close contacts would have caused twofold greater transmission (44 day delay in containment). Finally, failure to implement expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population would have yielded 1.6-fold greater transmission and a 32 day delay to containment. CONCLUSIONS: This study informs new evidence that in form the selection of NPI to use as countermeasures in response to a COVID-19 outbreak and optimal timing of their implementation. The evidence provided by this study should inform responses to future outbreaks of COVID-19 and future infectious disease outbreak preparedness efforts in China and elsewhere.

Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome prevalence, incidence, and mortality in China, 1990 to 2017: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 data.

BACKGROUND: Despite almost two decades of well-funded and comprehensive response efforts by the Chinese Government, human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) remains a major problem in China. Yet, few studies have recently examined long-term trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, and mortality at the national level. This study aimed to determine the prevalence, incidence, and mortality trends for HIV/AIDS over the past 28 years in China. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive, epidemiological, secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data. To evaluate trends in prevalence, incidence, and mortality over the study period from 1990 to 2017, we calculated values for annual percentage change (APC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: A significant increase in HIV/AIDS prevalence was observed for 1990 to 2009 (APC: 10.7; 95% CI: 10.4, 11.0; P < 0.001), and then remained stable for 2009 to 2017 (APC: 0.7; 95% CI: -0.3, 1.7; P = 0.1). A significant increase in HIV incidence was also observed for 1990 to 2005 (APC: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.6, 13.4; P < 0.001), and then a significant decrease was detected for 2005 to 2017 (APC: -6.5; 95% CI: -7.0, -6.1; P < 0.001). A significant increase in AIDS-related mortality rate was detected for 1990 to 2004 (APC: 10.3; 95% CI: 9.3, 11.3; P < 0.001), followed by a period of stability for 2004 to 2013 (APC: 1.3; 95% CI: -0.7, 3.3; P = 0.2), and then another significant increase for 2013 to 2017 (APC: 15.3; 95% CI: 8.7, 22.2; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although prevalence has stabilized and incidence has declined, AIDS-related mortality has risen sharply in recent years. These findings suggest more must be done to bring people into treatment earlier, retain them in treatment more effectively, actively seek to reenter them in treatment if they dropout, and improve the quality of treatment and care regimens.

One Hundred Days of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prevention and Control in China.

The epidemic of novel coronavirus disease was first reported in China in late December 2019 and was brought under control after some 2 months in China. However, it has become a global pandemic, and the number of cases and deaths continues to increase outside of China. We describe the emergence of the pandemic, detail the first 100 days of China's response as a phase 1 containment strategy followed by phase 2 containment, and briefly highlight areas of focus for the future. Specific, simple, and pragmatic strategies used in China for risk assessment, prioritization, and deployment of resources are described. Details of implementation, at different risk levels, of the traditional public health interventions are shared. Involvement of society in mounting a whole country response and challenges experienced with logistics and supply chains are described. Finally, the methods China is employing to cautiously restart social life and economic activity are outlined.

The Enigma of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic in China.

Nearly 17 years ago China launched its National HIV/AIDS Response Program, yet the epidemic still is not slowing. New cases and new deaths increase every year-in 2005, 40 711 people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) were diagnosed and 5729 died, whereas in 2019, 148 598 PLWH were diagnosed and 31 522 died. Moreover, the estimated PLWH population in China has risen to >1.25 million. However, epidemic data are worryingly complex and difficult to interpret, presenting challenges to the redirection and refocusing of efforts toward achievement of control. Here we present three "windows" into China's epidemic data. From these viewpoints, it appears we still do not know how much infection exists, how much transmission is occurring, and in what contexts transmission happens. The enigma that is China's HIV epidemic must be better understood. A new research agenda must be developed and executed if we are to change the future of HIV in China.

COVID-19 seeding time and doubling time model: an early epidemic risk assessment tool.

BACKGROUND: As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, each nation must decide when and how to respond. Yet many knowledge gaps persist, and many countries lack the capacity to develop complex models to assess risk and response. This paper aimed to meet this need by developing a model that uses case reporting data as input and provides a four-tiered risk assessment output. METHODS: We used publicly available, country/territory level case reporting data to determine median seeding number, mean seeding time (ST), and several measures of mean doubling time (DT) for COVID-19. We then structured our model as a coordinate plane with ST on the x-axis, DT on the y-axis, and mean ST and mean DT dividing the plane into four quadrants, each assigned a risk level. Sensitivity analysis was performed and countries/territories early in their outbreaks were assessed for risk. RESULTS: Our main finding was that among 45 countries/territories evaluated, 87% were at high risk for their outbreaks entering a rapid growth phase epidemic. We furthermore found that the model was sensitive to changes in DT, and that these changes were consistent with what is officially known of cases reported and control strategies implemented in those countries. CONCLUSIONS: Our main finding is that the ST/DT Model can be used to produce meaningful assessments of the risk of escalation in country/territory-level COVID-19 epidemics using only case reporting data. Our model can help support timely, decisive action at the national level as leaders and other decision makers face of the serious public health threat that is COVID-19.

Job Satisfaction Among Methadone Maintenance Treatment Clinic Service Providers in Jiangsu, China: A Cross-sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: Service providers' job satisfaction is critical to the stability of the work force and thereby the effectiveness of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) programs. This study aimed to explore MMT clinic service providers' job satisfaction and associated factors in Jiangsu, China. METHODS: This secondary study used baseline data of a randomized interventional trial implemented in Jiangsu, China. A survey was conducted among 76 MMT service providers using the computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) method. Job satisfaction responses were assessed via a 30-item scale, with a higher score indicating a higher level of job satisfaction. Perceived institutional support and perceived stigma due to working with drug users were measured using a 9-item scale. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with job satisfaction. RESULTS: Correlation analyses found a significant association between job satisfaction and having professional experience in the prevention and control of HIV, other sexually transmitted infections, or other infectious diseases (P = 0.046). Multiple regression analyses revealed that working at MMT clinics affiliated with Center for Disease Control and Prevention sites was associated with a lower level of job satisfaction (P = 0.014), and perception of greater institutional support (P = 0.001) was associated with a higher level of job satisfaction. CONCLUSION: Job satisfaction among MMT clinic service providers was moderate in our study. Our findings suggest that institutional support for providers should be improved, and that acquisition of additional expertise should be encouraged.

History of the HIV Epidemic in China.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This study aims to review the history of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection epidemic in China. RECENT FINDINGS: The HIV infection epidemic in China has evolved significantly over the past 35 years, from initially exclusively within people who inject drugs (PWID), to outbreaks due to plasma collection contamination in the mid-1990s, to now almost exclusive transmission via sexual contact. The number of newly-diagnosed cases and the number HIV-related deaths have increased each year since 2004, coinciding with a massive scale-up of both HIV testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation. The proportion of cases diagnosed later in their disease progression has remained constant. The initial outbreaks of HIV across China were identified quickly and the overall trends have been monitored. While the HIV epidemic among PWID has been well managed, the growing HIV epidemic via sexual contact has grown more complex and even more difficult to control.

Spectrum of malignancies among the population of adults living with HIV infection in China: A nationwide follow-up study, 2008-2011.

BACKGROUND: Although increasingly studied in high-income countries, there is a paucity of data from the Chinese population on the patterns of cancer among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We conducted a nationwide follow-up study using routinely collected data for adult PLHIV diagnosed on or before 31 December 2011 and alive and in care as of 1 January 2008. Participants were observed from 1 January 2008 (study start) to 30 June 2012 (study end). Main outcome measures were gender-stratified age-standardized incidence rates for China (ASIRC) and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for all malignancy types/sites observed. RESULTS: Among 399,451 subjects, a majority was aged 30-44 years (49.3%), male (69.8%), and Han Chinese (67.9%). A total of 3,819 reports of cancer were identified. Overall, ASIRC was 776.4 per 100,000 for males and 486.5 per 100,000 for females. Malignancy sites/types with highest ASIRC among males were lung (226.0 per 100,000), liver (145.7 per 100,000), and lymphoma (63.1 per 100,000), and among females were lung (66.8 per 100,000), lymphoma (48.0 per 100,000), stomach (47.8 per 100,000), and cervix (47.6 per 100,000). Overall SIR for males was 3.4 and for females was 2.6. Highest SIR was observed for Kaposi sarcoma (2,639.8 for males, 1,593.5 for females) and lymphoma (13.9 for males, 16.0 for females). CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence of substantial AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining cancer burden among adult Chinese PLHIV between 2008 and 2011. Although further study is warranted, China should take action to improve cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment for this vulnerable population.

Overrepresentation of Injection Drug Use Route of Infection Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus Long-term Nonprogressors: A Nationwide, Retrospective Cohort Study in China, 1989-2016.

BACKGROUND: Why some persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) progress quickly and others remain "healthy" for a decade or more without treatment remains a fundamental question of HIV pathology. We aimed to assess the epidemiological characteristics of HIV long-term nonprogressors (LTNPs) based on a cohort of PLWH in China observed between 1989 and 2016. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide, retrospective cohort study among Chinese PLWH with HIV diagnosed before 1 January 2008. Records were extracted from China's national HIV/AIDS database on 30 June 2016. LTNPs were defined as those with AIDS-free, antiretroviral therapy-naive survival, with CD4 cell counts consistently ≥500/µL for ≥8 years after diagnosis. Prevalence was calculated, characteristics were described, and determinants were assessed by means of logistic regression. Potential sources of bias were also investigated. RESULTS: Our cohort included 89 201 participants, of whom 1749 (2.0%) were categorized as LTNPs. The injection drug use (IDU) route of infection was reported by 70.7% of LTNPs, compared with only 37.1% of non-LTNPs. The odds of LTNP status were greater among those infected via IDU (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 2.28 [1.94-2.68]) and with HIV diagnosed in settings with large populations of persons who inject drugs (1.75 [1.51-2.02] for detention centers, 1.61 [1.39-1.87] for Yunnan, 1.94 [1.62-2.31] for Guangdong, and 2.90 [2.09-4.02] for Xinjiang). CONCLUSIONS: Overrepresentation of the IDU route of infection among LTNPs is a surprising finding worthy of further study, and this newly defined cohort may be particularly well suited to exploration of the molecular biological mechanisms underlying HIV long-term nonprogression.

The Benefits of Immediate ART.

The benefits of "early" antiretroviral therapy (ART; ie, initiation when CD4 ≥500 cells/mm3) are now well accepted as reflected in the removal of the CD4-based eligibility from new ART guidelines by the World Health Organization (WHO). However, neither the "treat-all" strategy recommendations presented in the guidelines nor the HIV care cascade goals in the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets adequately address the issue of ART timing. Our recent study on "immediate" ART (ie, ≤30 days after HIV diagnosis) adds important evidence demonstrating the real and meaningful benefits of rapid ART initiation even among those who have CD4 ≥500 cells/mm3. We call on WHO and UNAIDS to consider this research and encourage a shift from the treat-all strategy to an "immediately-treat-all" strategy, and from a slow, fragmented, complicated, multistep HIV care cascade to a fast, easy, and simple cascade with effectiveness measures that incorporate the important aspect of time.

Nationwide Cohort Study of Antiretroviral Therapy Timing: Treatment Dropout and Virological Failure in China, 2011-2015.

Background: People living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) are still being diagnosed late, rendering the benefits of "early" antiretroviral therapy (ART) unattainable. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the benefits of "immediate" ART. Methods: A nationwide cohort of PLWH in China who initiated ART January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2014 and had baseline CD4 results >200 cells/µL were censored at 12 months, dropout, or death, whichever came first. Treatment dropout and virological failure (viral load ≥400 copies/mL) were measured. Determinants were assessed by Cox and log-binomial regression. Results: The cohort included 123605 PLWH. The ≤30 days group had a significantly lower treatment dropout rate of 6.72%, compared to 8.91% for the 91-365 days group and to 12.64% for the >365 days group. The ≤30 days group also had a significantly lower virological failure rate of 5.45% (31-90 days: 7.39%; 91-365 days: 9.64%; >365 days: 12.67%). Greater risk of dropout (91-365 days: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25-1.42; >365 days: aHR = 1.55, CI = 1.47-1.54), and virological failure (31-90 days: adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.35, CI = 1.26-1.45; 91-365 days: aRR = 1.66, CI = 1.55-1.78; >365 days: aRR = 1.85, CI = 1.74-1.97) were observed for those who delayed treatment. Conclusions: ART within 30 days of HIV diagnosis was associated with significantly reduced risk of treatment failure, highlighting the need to implement test-and-immediately-treat policies.

HIV screening among patients seeking care at Xuanwu Hospital: A cross-sectional study in Beijing, China, 2011-2016.

OBJECTIVES: One-third of people living with HIV in China are still unaware of their status, so we sought to better understand HIV testing in the general hospital setting in China. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using the electronic medical records of all patients who attended Xuanwu Hospital in Beijing, January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2016. HIV screening and detection rates and characteristics of patients diagnosed with HIV were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 235,961 patients were screened, for a screening rate of 1.4%. Although most were outpatients (98.4%), screening rate was higher among inpatients (70.0% versus 0.4%), and highest in internal medicine (36.1%) and surgery (33.3%) departments. A total of 140 patients were diagnosed with HIV, for a detection rate of 5.93 per 10,000. Detection rates were highest among outpatients (9.34 per 10,000), and patients attending the dermatology and sexually transmitted infection (STI) department (153.85 per 10,000). Most diagnoses were made among males (91.4%), aged 20-39 (67.1%), who reported becoming infected through homosexual contact (70.0%). CONCLUSIONS: HIV screening in China's general hospitals needs to be improved. More focus should be placed on screening outpatients, especially in the dermatology and STI department, and young men.

Duration of Human Immunodef iciency Virus Infection at Diagnosis among New Human Immunodef iciency Virus Cases in Dehong, Yunnan, China, 2008-2015.

BACKGROUND: On diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, a person may have been infected already for many years. This study aimed to estimate the duration of HIV infection at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: Newly diagnosed HIV cases in Dehong, China, from 2008 to 2015 were studied. Duration of infection at the time of diagnosis was calculated using the first CD4 cell count result after diagnosis and a CD4 depletion model of disease progression. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to investigate the associated risk factors. RESULTS: A.total of 5867 new HIV cases were enrolled. Overall, mean duration of infection was 6.3 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.2, 6.5). After adjusting for confounding, significantly shorter durations of infection were observed among participants who were female (beta: -0.37, 95% CI: -0.64, -0.09), Dai ethnicity (beta: -0.28, 95% CI: -0.57, 0.01), and infected through injecting drug use (beta: -1.82, 95% CI: -2.25, -1.39). Compared to the hospital setting, durations were shorter for those diagnosed in any other settings, and compared to 2008, durations were shorter for those diagnosed all years after 2010. CONCLUSION: Although the reduction in duration of infection at the time of diagnosis observed in Dehong was significant, it may not have had a meaningful impact.

Synthetic drug use and HIV infection among men who have sex with men in China: A sixteen-city, cross-sectional survey.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing evidence suggests an association between synthetic drug use and HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim of this study was to evaluate synthetic drug use prevalence, describe characteristics of synthetic drug users, and investigate whether synthetic drug use is associated with HIV infection among Chinese MSM. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 16 Chinese cities among males >18 years old who reported having had sex with men in the prior 3 months, but did not already have a known HIV-positive serostatus. Participants were grouped according to lifetime synthetic drug use and characteristics were compared using Chi-square test. Determinants of HIV infection were assessed using univariate and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Among 3,135 participants, 1,249 reported lifetime synthetic drug use, for a prevalence of 39.8%. Nearly all users (96.3%) reported using inhaled alkyl nitrites ("poppers"). Synthetic drug users were more likely to be younger (<30 years, p<0.001), single (p<0.001), and more educated (p<0.001), and were more likely to engage in higher risk sexual behavior compared to non-drug users. Overall HIV prevalence was 7.8% (246/3,135). However, prevalence among synthetic drug users was 10.6% (132/246) compared to 6.0% (114/246) for non-drug users (p<0.001). Factors associated with an increased odds of HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.64-2.91) and synthetic drug use (adjusted OR = 2.04, CI = 1.56-2.70). CONCLUSION: Prevalence of synthetic drug use, especially poppers use, prevalence was high in our study, and users had 2-fold greater odds of HIV acquisition. It is clear that there is an urgent need for increased prevention, testing, and treatment interventions for this key, dual-risk population in China. Moreover, we call on the Chinese Government to consider regulating poppers so that users can be properly warned about their associated risks.