A paleoecological investigation of recent cyanobacterial blooms and their drivers in two contrasting lakes.

Cyanobacterial blooms are one of the most significant threats to global water security and freshwater biodiversity. Interactions among multiple stressors, including habitat degradation, species invasions, increased nutrient runoff, and climate change, are key drivers. However, assessing the role of anthropogenic activity on the onset of cyanobacterial blooms and exploring response variation amongst lakes of varying size and depth is usually limited by lack of historical records. In the present study we applied molecular, paleolimnological (trace metal, Itrax-µ-XRF and hyperspectral scanning, chronology), paleobotanical (pollen) and historical data to reconstruct cyanobacterial abundance and community composition and anthropogenic impacts in two dune lakes over a period of up to 1200 years. Metabarcoding and droplet digital PCR results showed very low levels of picocyanobacteria present in the lakes prior to about CE 1854 (1839-1870 CE) in the smaller shallow Lake Alice and CE 1970 (1963-1875 CE) in the larger deeper Lake Wiritoa. Hereafter bloom-forming cyanobacteria were detected and increased notably in abundance post CE 1984 (1982-1985 CE) in Lake Alice and CE 1997 (1990-2007 CE) in Lake Wiritoa. Currently, the magnitude of blooms is more pronounced in Lake Wiritoa, potentially attributable to hypoxia-induced release of phosphorus from sediment, introducing an additional source of nutrients. Generalized linear modelling was used to investigate the contribution of nutrients (proxy = bacterial functions), temperature, redox conditions (Mn:Fe), and erosion (Ti:Inc) in driving the abundance of cyanobacteria (ddPCR). In Lake Alice nutrients and erosion had a statistically significant effect, while in Lake Wiritoa nutrients and redox conditions were significant.

A pseudoproxy emulation of the PAGES 2k database using a hierarchy of proxy system models.

Paleoclimate reconstructions are now integral to climate assessments, yet the consequences of using different methodologies and proxy data require rigorous benchmarking. Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) provide a tractable and transparent test bed for evaluating climate reconstruction methods and their sensitivity to aspects of real-world proxy networks. Here we develop a dataset that leverages proxy system models (PSMs) for this purpose, which emulates the essential physical, chemical, biological, and geological processes that translate climate signals into proxy records, making these synthetic proxies more relevant to the real world. We apply a suite of PSMs to emulate the widely-used PAGES 2k dataset, including realistic spatiotemporal sampling and error structure. A hierarchical approach allows us to produce many variants of this base dataset, isolating the impact of sampling bias in time and space, representation error, sampling error, and other assumptions. Combining these various experiments produces a rich dataset ("pseudoPAGES2k") for many applications. As an illustration, we show how to conduct a PPE with this dataset based on emerging climate field reconstruction techniques.

A bacterial index to estimate lake trophic level: National scale validation.

Lakes and their catchments have been subjected to centuries to millennia of exploitation by humans. Efficient monitoring methods are required to promote proactive protection and management. Traditional monitoring is time consuming and expensive, which limits the number of lakes monitored. Lake surface sediments provide a temporally integrated representation of environmental conditions and contain high microbial biomass. Based on these attributes, we hypothesized that bacteria associated with lake trophic states could be identified and used to develop an index that would not be confounded by non-nutrient stressor gradients. Metabarcoding (16S rRNA gene) was used to assess bacterial communities present in surface sediments from 259 non-saline lakes in New Zealand encompassing a range of trophic states from alpine microtrophic lakes to lowland hypertrophic lakes. A subset of lakes (n = 96) with monitoring data was used to identify indicator amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) associated with different trophic states. A total of 10,888 indicator taxa were identified and used to develop a Sediment Bacterial Trophic Index (SBTI), which signficantly correlated (r2 = 0.842, P < 0.001) with the Trophic Lake Index. The SBTI was then derived for the remaining 163 lakes, providing new knowledge of the trophic state of these unmonitored lakes. This new, robust DNA-based tool provides a rapid and cost-effective method that will allow a greater number of lakes to be monitored and more effectively managed in New Zealand and globally. The SBTI could also be applied in a paleolimnological context to investigate changes in trophic status over centuries to millennia.

Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica.

The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice-climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.

Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability.

Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate system's integrated memory of orbital forcing. We conclude that climate models appear to contain the essential physics to correctly simulate the spectral continuum of global-mean temperature; however, regional discrepancies remain unresolved. A critical element of successfully simulating suborbital climate variability involves, we hypothesize, initial conditions of the deep ocean state that are consistent with observations of the recent past.

Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene.

The latitudinal temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles influences atmospheric stability, the strength of the jet stream and extratropical cyclones1-3. Recent global warming is weakening the annual surface gradient in the Northern Hemisphere by preferentially warming the high latitudes4; however, the implications of these changes for mid-latitude climate remain uncertain5,6. Here we show that a weaker latitudinal temperature gradient-that is, warming of the Arctic with respect to the Equator-during the early to middle part of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in mid-latitude net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, at 30° N to 50° N). We quantify the evolution of the gradient and of mid-latitude moisture both in a new compilation of Holocene palaeoclimate records spanning from 10° S to 90° N and in an ensemble of mid-Holocene climate model simulations. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that a weaker temperature gradient led to weaker mid-latitude westerly flow, weaker cyclones and decreased net terrestrial mid-latitude precipitation. Currently, the northern high latitudes are warming at rates nearly double the global average4, decreasing the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient to values comparable with those in the early to middle Holocene. If the patterns observed during the Holocene hold for current anthropogenically forced warming, the weaker latitudinal temperature gradient will lead to considerable reductions in mid-latitude water resources.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

An extended Arctic proxy temperature database for the past 2,000 years.

Robust climate reconstructions of the most recent centuries and millennia are invaluable for placing modern warming in the context of natural variability. Here we present an extended and revised database (version 1.1) of proxy temperature records recently used to reconstruct Arctic temperatures for the past 2,000 years. The datasets are presented in a machine-readable format, and have been extended with the geochronologic data and consistently generated time-uncertain ensembles, which will be useful in future analyses of the influence of geochronologic uncertainty. A standardized description of the seasonality of the temperature response for each record, as reported by the original authors, is also included to motivate a more nuanced approach to integrating records with variable seasonal sensitivities. Despite the predominance of seasonal, rather than annual, temperature responders in the database, comparisons with the instrumental record of temperature suggest that, as a whole, the datasets best record annual temperature variability across the Arctic, especially in northeast Canada and Greenland, where the density of records is highest.

How warm was the last interglacial? New model-data comparisons.

A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1(°)C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

Recent warming reverses long-term arctic cooling.

The temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60 degrees N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. The cooling trend was reversed during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our 2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.