Observational Verification of the Cumulative Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) Using Hurricanes, Inland Floods, and Wildfires From 2016 to 2019.

Users can apply three processes to develop confidence in decision-making tools like models and indices-validation, verification, and observation. The utility of the Cumulative Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) was demonstrated by combining the processes of verification and observation using real-world natural hazard events (i.e., hurricanes, inland flooding, and wildfires). The ability of CRSI to determine the counties most vulnerable to hazards and least likely to recover quickly from natural hazards is demonstrated using these natural hazard events from outside the original index construction data set. Using Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Michael, the counties in Texas and Florida/Georgia, respectively, experiencing the most damage and the most extended recovery intervals were determined accurately. Similarly, the most vulnerable and least recoverable counties were correctly identified as those associated with the Great Louisiana Flood of 2016. Finally, three different types of wildfires in California were examined to determine the likelihood of recovery and the strength of pre-event planning. All models and indices developed for use by decision-makers should consider undertaking this verification or a similar validation operation to enhance user confidence.

Gulf of Mexico Coastal County Resilience to Natural Hazards.

Using a Cumulative Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) that was developed to represent resilience to natural hazards at multiple scales for the United States, the U.S. coastal counties of the Gulf of Mexico region of the United States are compared for resilience for these types of natural hazards. The assessment compares the domains, indicators and metrics of CRSI, addressing environmental, economic and societal aspects of resilience to natural hazards at county scales. The index was applied at the county scale and aggregated to represent states and two regions of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline. Assessments showed county-level resilience in all GOM counties was low, generally below the U.S. average. Comparisons showed higher levels of resilience in the western GOM region while select counties Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama exhibited lowest resilience (<2.0) to natural hazards. Some coastal counties in Florida and Texas represented the highest levels of resilience seen along the GOM coast. Much of this increased resilience appears to be due to higher levels of governance and broader levels of social, economic and ecological services.