Thoughts on the criteria to determine the origin of volcanic unrest as magmatic or non-magmatic.

As our ability to detect volcanic unrest improves, we are increasingly confronted with the question of whether the unrest has a magmatic origin (magma on the move) or a non-magmatic origin from a change in the hydrothermal system (fluids that are not magma on the move) or tectonic processes. The cause of unrest has critical implications for the potential eruptive hazard (e.g. used in constructing Bayesian Event Trees), but is frequently the subject of debate, even at well-studied systems. Here, we propose a set of multi-disciplinary observations and numerical models that could be used to evaluate conceptual models about the cause of unrest. These include measurements of gas fluxes and compositions and the isotopic signature of some components (e.g. H2, He, C, SO2, H2 O, CH4 and CO2), the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground deformation, thermal output, seismicity, changes in gravity, and whether there is topographic uplift or subsidence spanning hundreds to thousands of years. In several volcanic systems, both magmatic and non-magmatic unrest is occurring at the same time. While none of these observations or models is diagnostic on its own, we illustrate several examples where they have been used together to make a plausible conceptual model of one or more episodes of unrest and whether eruptions did or did not follow the unrest. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

Electrical activity during the 2006 Mount St. Augustine volcanic eruptions.

By using a combination of radio frequency time-of-arrival and interferometer measurements, we observed a sequence of lightning and electrical activity during one of Mount St. Augustine's eruptions. The observations indicate that the electrical activity had two modes or phases. First, there was an explosive phase in which the ejecta from the explosion appeared to be highly charged upon exiting the volcano, resulting in numerous apparently disorganized discharges and some simple lightning. The net charge exiting the volcano appears to have been positive. The second phase, which followed the most energetic explosion, produced conventional-type discharges that occurred within plume. Although the plume cloud was undoubtedly charged as a result of the explosion itself, the fact that the lightning onset was delayed and continued after and well downwind of the eruption indicates that in situ charging of some kind was occurring, presumably similar in some respects to that which occurs in normal thunderstorms.

Tilt and seismicity changes in the shumagin seismic gap.

Changes in the ground surface tilt and in the rate of seismicity indicate that an aseismic deformation event may have occurred between 1978 and 1980 along the plate boundary in the eastern Aleutians, Alaska, within the Shumagin seismic gap. Pavlof Volcano was unusually quiescent during this period. The proposed event would cause an increase of stress on the shallow locked portion of the plate boundary, bringing it closer to rupture in a great earthquake.