Protected areas slow declines unevenly across the tetrapod tree of life.

Protected areas (PAs) are the primary strategy for slowing terrestrial biodiversity loss. Although expansion of PA coverage is prioritized under the Convention on Biological Diversity, it remains unknown whether PAs mitigate declines across the tetrapod tree of life and to what extent land cover and climate change modify PA effectiveness1,2. Here we analysed rates of change in abundance of 2,239 terrestrial vertebrate populations across the globe. On average, vertebrate populations declined five times more slowly within PAs (-0.4% per year) than at similar sites lacking protection (-1.8% per year). The mitigating effects of PAs varied both within and across vertebrate classes, with amphibians and birds experiencing the greatest benefits. The benefits of PAs were lower for amphibians in areas with converted land cover and lower for reptiles in areas with rapid climate warming. By contrast, the mitigating impacts of PAs were consistently augmented by effective national governance. This study provides evidence for the effectiveness of PAs as a strategy for slowing tetrapod declines. However, optimizing the growing PA network requires targeted protection of sensitive clades and mitigation of threats beyond PA boundaries. Provided the conditions of targeted protection, adequate governance and well-managed landscapes are met, PAs can serve a critical role in safeguarding tetrapod biodiversity.

Quantifying reliability and data deficiency in global vertebrate population trends using the Living Planet Index.

Global biodiversity is facing a crisis, which must be solved through effective policies and on-the-ground conservation. But governments, NGOs, and scientists need reliable indicators to guide research, conservation actions, and policy decisions. Developing reliable indicators is challenging because the data underlying those tools is incomplete and biased. For example, the Living Planet Index tracks the changing status of global vertebrate biodiversity, but taxonomic, geographic and temporal gaps and biases are present in the aggregated data used to calculate trends. However, without a basis for real-world comparison, there is no way to directly assess an indicator's accuracy or reliability. Instead, a modelling approach can be used. We developed a model of trend reliability, using simulated datasets as stand-ins for the "real world", degraded samples as stand-ins for indicator datasets (e.g., the Living Planet Database), and a distance measure to quantify reliability by comparing partially sampled to fully sampled trends. The model revealed that the proportion of species represented in the database is not always indicative of trend reliability. Important factors are the number and length of time series, as well as their mean growth rates and variance in their growth rates, both within and between time series. We found that many trends in the Living Planet Index need more data to be considered reliable, particularly trends across the global south. In general, bird trends are the most reliable, while reptile and amphibian trends are most in need of additional data. We simulated three different solutions for reducing data deficiency, and found that collating existing data (where available) is the most efficient way to improve trend reliability, whereas revisiting previously studied populations is a quick and efficient way to improve trend reliability until new long-term studies can be completed and made available.

Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030.

To safeguard nature, we must understand the drivers of biodiversity loss. Time-delayed biodiversity responses to environmental changes (ecological lags) are often absent from models of biodiversity change, despite their well-documented existence. We quantify how lagged responses to climate and land-use change have influenced mammal and bird populations around the world, while incorporating effects of direct exploitation and conservation interventions. Ecological lag duration varies between drivers, vertebrate classes and body size groupings-e.g. lags linked to climate-change impacts are 13 years for small birds, rising to 40 years for larger species. Past warming and land conversion generally combine to predict population declines; however, such conditions are associated with population increases for small mammals. Positive effects of management (>+4% annually for large mammals) and protected areas (>+6% annually for large birds) on population trends contrast with the negative impact of exploitation (<-7% annually for birds), highlighting the need to promote sustainable use. Model projections suggest a future with winners (e.g. large birds) and losers (e.g. medium-sized birds), with current/recent environmental change substantially influencing abundance trends to 2050. Without urgent action, including effective conservation interventions and promoting sustainable use, ambitious targets to stop declines by 2030 may already be slipping out of reach.

Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations.

Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience-resistance and recovery-in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability-but not resistance-of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.

A quantitative global review of species population monitoring.

Species monitoring, defined here as the repeated, systematic collection of data to detect long-term changes in the populations of wild species, is a vital component of conservation practice and policy. We created a database of nearly 1200 schemes, ranging in start date from 1800 to 2018, to review spatial, temporal, taxonomic, and methodological patterns in global species monitoring. We identified monitoring schemes through standardized web searches, an online survey of stakeholders, in-depth national searches in a sample of countries, and a review of global biodiversity databases. We estimated the total global number of monitoring schemes operating at 3300-15,000. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in the number of new schemes being initiated in lower- and middle-income countries and in megadiverse countries, but a decrease in high-income countries. The total number of monitoring schemes in a country and its per capita gross domestic product were strongly, positively correlated. Schemes that were active in 2018 had been running for an average of 21 years in high-income countries, compared with 13 years in middle-income countries and 10 years in low-income countries. In high-income countries, over one-half of monitoring schemes received government funding, but this was less than one-quarter in low-income countries. Data collection was undertaken partly or wholly by volunteers in 37% of schemes, and such schemes covered significantly more sites and species than those undertaken by professionals alone. Birds were by far the most widely monitored taxonomic group, accounting for around half of all schemes, but this bias declined over time. Monitoring in most taxonomic groups remains sparse and uncoordinated, and most of the data generated are elusive and unlikely to feed into wider biodiversity conservation processes. These shortcomings could be addressed by, for example, creating an open global meta-database of biodiversity monitoring schemes and enhancing capacity for species monitoring in countries with high biodiversity. Article impact statement: Species population monitoring for conservation purposes remains strongly biased toward a few vertebrate taxa in wealthier countries.

Una Revisión Global Cuantitativa del Monitoreo Poblacional de Especies Resumen El monitoreo de especies, definido aquí como la recolección sistemática y repetida de datos para detectar cambios a largo plazo en las poblaciones de las especies silvestres, es un componente vital de la práctica y las políticas de la conservación. Generamos una base de datos de casi 1,200 esquemas, con un rango de fecha de inicio desde 1800 hasta 2018, para revisar los patrones espaciales, temporales, taxonómicos y metodológicos en el monitoreo global de especies. Identificamos los esquemas de monitoreo por medio de búsquedas estandarizadas en línea, una encuesta digital realizada a los actores, búsquedas a profundidad en una muestra de países y en una revisión global de las bases de datos sobre la biodiversidad. Estimamos el número total mundial de esquemas funcionales de monitoreo entre 3,300 y 15,000. Desde el 2000, ha habido un fuerte aumento en el número de esquemas nuevos que han iniciado en países de bajo o mediano ingreso y en países megadiversos, pero una disminución en los países de alto ingreso. El número total de esquemas de monitoreo en un país y su producto interno bruto per cápita tuvieron una correlación sólida y positiva. Los esquemas que estaban activos en 2018 lo habían estado en un promedio de 21 años en los países de alto ingreso, comparado con un promedio de 13 años en los países de mediano ingreso y de 10 años en los países de bajo ingreso. En los países de alto ingreso, más de la mitad de los esquemas de monitoreo recibieron financiamiento del gobierno, comparado con menos de un cuarto de los esquemas en los países de bajo ingreso. La recolección de datos se realizó parcial o totalmente por voluntarios en 37% de los esquemas, y dichos esquemas cubrieron significativamente más sitios y especies que aquellos realizados sólo por profesionales. Las aves fueron por mucho el grupo taxonómico más monitoreado, comprendiendo casi la mitad de todos los esquemas, pero este sesgo declinó con el tiempo. El monitoreo en la mayoría de los grupos taxonómicos todavía es disperso y descoordinado, y la mayoría de los datos generados son vagos y tienen poca probabilidad de alimentar procesos más amplios de conservación de biodiversidad. Estas deficiencias podrían abordarse, por ejemplo, creando una meta-base de datos globales abiertos de los esquemas de monitoreo de la biodiversidad y mejorando la capacidad para el monitoreo de especies en los países con alta biodiversidad.

Population coverage of the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System: a survey of the contents of health insurance registries across Canada. / Couverture de la population dans le Système canadien de surveillance des maladies chroniques : enquête sur le contenu des registres d'assurance-maladie au Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Health insurance registries, which capture insurance coverage and demographic information for entire populations, are a critical component of population health surveillance and research when using administrative data. Lack of standardization of registry information across Canada's provinces and territories could affect the comparability of surveillance measures. We assessed the contents of health insurance registries across Canada to describe the populations covered and document registry similarities and differences. METHODS: A survey about the data and population identifiers in health insurance registries was developed by the study team and representatives from the Public Health Agency of Canada. The survey was completed by key informants from most provinces and territories and then descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: Responses were received from all provinces; partial responses were received from the Northwest Territories. Demographic information in health insurance registries, such as primary address, date of birth and sex, were captured in all jurisdictions. Data captured on familial relationships, ethnicity and socioeconomic status varied among jurisdictions, as did start and end dates of coverage and frequency of registry updates. Identifiers for specific populations, such as First Nations individuals, were captured in some, but not all jurisdictions. CONCLUSION: Health insurance registries are a rich source of information about the insured populations of the provinces and territories. However, data heterogeneity may affect who is included and excluded in population surveillance estimates produced using administrative health data. Development of a harmonized data framework could support timely and comparable population health research and surveillance results from multi-jurisdiction studies.

Scaling the extinction vortex: Body size as a predictor of population dynamics close to extinction events.

Mutual reinforcement between abiotic and biotic factors can drive small populations into a catastrophic downward spiral to extinction-a process known as the "extinction vortex." However, empirical studies investigating extinction dynamics in relation to species' traits have been lacking.We assembled a database of 35 vertebrate populations monitored to extirpation over a period of at least ten years, represented by 32 different species, including 25 birds, five mammals, and two reptiles. We supplemented these population time series with species-specific mean adult body size to investigate whether this key intrinsic trait affects the dynamics of populations declining toward extinction.We performed three analyses to quantify the effects of adult body size on three characteristics of population dynamics: time to extinction, population growth rate, and residual variability in population growth rate.Our results provide support for the existence of extinction vortex dynamics in extirpated populations. We show that populations typically decline nonlinearly to extinction, while both the rate of population decline and variability in population growth rate increase as extinction is approached. Our results also suggest that smaller-bodied species are particularly prone to the extinction vortex, with larger increases in rates of population decline and population growth rate variability when compared to larger-bodied species.Our results reaffirm and extend our understanding of extinction dynamics in real-life extirpated populations. In particular, we suggest that smaller-bodied species may be at greater risk of rapid collapse to extinction than larger-bodied species, and thus, management of smaller-bodied species should focus on maintaining higher population abundances as a priority.

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations.

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.

Un Enfoque Hipotético para Medir el Impacto de la Conservación de Pastizales Húmedos sobre Poblaciones Reproductoras de Aves en el Reino Unido Resumen Las poblaciones de aves zancudas en los pastizales húmedos del Reino Unido han declinado gravemente desde 1990. Para ayudar con la mitigación de estas declinaciones, la Real Sociedad para la Protección de las Aves ha restaurado y manejado las reservas naturales en pastizales húmedos de tierras bajas para beneficiar a estas y otras especies. Sin embargo, el impacto de estas reservas sobre las tendencias poblacionales de las aves no ha sido evaluado experimentalmente debido a la falta de poblaciones control. Comparamos las tendencias poblacionales entre 1994 y 2018 de cinco especies de aves de importancia para la conservación, que se reproducen dentro de estas reservas naturales, mediante tendencias hipotéticas creadas a partir de los censos de observación de aves reproductoras emparejadas. Comparamos las tendencias de las reservas con tres casos hipotéticos diferentes basados en diferentes escenarios de cómo las poblaciones de la reserva podrían haberse desarrollado en ausencia de la conservación. Los efectos de las intervenciones de conservación fueron positivos para las cuatro especies focales de aves zancudas: Vanellus vanellus, Tringa totanus, Numenius arquata y Gallinago gallinago. No hubo un efecto positivo de las intervenciones de conservación para la especie paserina Motacilla flava. Nuestra estrategia utilizando datos de monitoreos para producir controles hipotéticos válidos es un método ampliamente aplicable que permite ka evaluación del impacto de la conservación a gran escala.

Below the canopy: global trends in forest vertebrate populations and their drivers.

Global forest assessments use forest area as an indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and 'empty forest' syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon storage. We aimed to develop a global indicator of forest specialist vertebrate populations to improve assessments of forest biodiversity status. Using the Living Planet Index methodology, we developed a weighted composite Forest Specialist Index for the period 1970-2014. We then investigated potential correlates of forest vertebrate population change. We analysed the relationship between the average rate of change of forest vertebrate populations and satellite-derived tree cover trends, as well as other pressures. On average, forest vertebrate populations declined by 53% between 1970 and 2014. We found little evidence of a consistent global effect of tree cover change on forest vertebrate populations, but a significant negative effect of exploitation threat on forest specialists. In conclusion, we found that the forest area is a poor indicator of forest biodiversity status. For forest biodiversity to recover, conservation management needs to be informed by monitoring all threats to vertebrates, including those below the canopy.

At-a-glance - Twenty years of diabetes surveillance using the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System. / Aperçu - Vingt ans de surveillance du diabète grâce au Système canadien de surveillance des maladies chroniques.

In 1999, the Government of Canada, along with the provinces and territories, established the National Diabetes Surveillance System (NDSS) to track rates of diabetes in Canada. The NDSS used a novel method to systematically collect and report national diabetes data using linked administrative health databases. The NDSS has since evolved to become the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System (CCDSS) and provides information on over 20 chronic conditions. This At-a-glance report provides the most up-to-date CCDSS information on diabetes rates in Canada. Currently, 8.8% of Canadians (9.4% male, 8.1% female, aged one year and older) live with diabetes, and approximately 549 new cases are diagnosed each day. Since 2000, the age-standardized prevalence rate has increased by an average of 3.3% per year. The age-standardized incidence rate has remained relatively stable, and all-cause mortality rates among those with diabetes have decreased by an average of 2.1% per year. This suggests that people are living longer with a diabetes diagnosis.

The Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System has provided important information on diabetes rates in Canada since 2000. Currently, 8.8% of Canadians (9.4% male, 8.1% female, aged one year and older) live with diabetes. The age-standardized prevalence rate of diabetes has increased over time, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate has remained stable. The all-cause mortality rate among those with diabetes has decreased, suggesting people are living longer with a diabetes diagnosis.

Le Système canadien de surveillance des maladies chroniques fournit des renseignements importants sur les taux de diabète au Canada depuis 2000. Actuellement, 8,8 % des Canadiens (9,4 % des hommes et 8,1 % des femmes d'un an et plus) sont atteints de diabète. Le taux de prévalence du diabète normalisé selon l'âge a augmenté avec le temps, tandis que le taux d'incidence normalisé selon l'âge est demeuré stable. Le taux de mortalité toutes causes confondues chez les personnes atteintes de diabète a diminué, ce qui donne à penser que l'on vit plus longtemps avec un diagnostic de diabète.

Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and aggregation of various raw data sources, data quality control, taxonomic name matching and statistical modelling of integrated data. We illustrate these steps with concrete examples from existing citizen science and professional monitoring projects, including eBird, the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring network, the Living Planet Index and the Baltic Sea zooplankton monitoring. The identified workflow steps are applicable to both terrestrial and aquatic systems and a broad range of spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. They depend on clear, findable and accessible metadata, and we provide an overview of current data and metadata standards. Several challenges remain to be solved for building global EBV data products: (i) developing tools and models for combining heterogeneous, multi-source data sets and filling data gaps in geographic, temporal and taxonomic coverage, (ii) integrating emerging methods and technologies for data collection such as citizen science, sensor networks, DNA-based techniques and satellite remote sensing, (iii) solving major technical issues related to data product structure, data storage, execution of workflows and the production process/cycle as well as approaching technical interoperability among research infrastructures, (iv) allowing semantic interoperability by developing and adopting standards and tools for capturing consistent data and metadata, and (v) ensuring legal interoperability by endorsing open data or data that are free from restrictions on use, modification and sharing. Addressing these challenges is critical for biodiversity research and for assessing progress towards conservation policy targets and sustainable development goals.

The burden of generalized anxiety disorder in Canada. / Le fardeau du trouble d'anxiété généralisée au Canada.

INTRODUCTION: Although generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is common and disabling, there are few Canadian studies on this mental illness. We compared the characteristics, health status, health services use and health care needs of Canadians with GAD to those with depression. METHODS: Data are from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Canadians aged 15 years and older (n = 23 709; response rate of 68.9%). The respondents we studied had selfreported symptoms compatible with GAD and/or major depressive episode (MDE) in the preceding 12 months (n = 1598). Estimates were weighted to represent the Canadian household population. We performed descriptive and multinomial multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In 2012, an estimated 700 000 (2.5%) Canadians aged 15 years and older reported symptoms compatible with GAD in the previous 12 months. MDE symptoms co-occurred in 50% of these individuals. Those with GAD only reported fair/poor perceived health (29.7%), moderate to severe psychological distress (81.2%) and moderate to severe disability (28.1%) comparable to (or even slightly worse) than those with MDE only (24.7%, 78.8% and 24.8% respectively). Those with comorbid GAD and MDE demonstrated the worst health outcomes; 47.3% of them reported fair/poor perceived health, 94.0% reported moderate to severe psychological distress and 52.4% reported moderate to severe disability. Nearly 50% of those with comorbid GAD and MDE reported that their need for health care was not met or only partially met, compared to about 30% of those with GAD or MDE only. CONCLUSION: While GAD is associated with levels of distress and disability comparable to (or slightly worse) than those affected by MDE only, the health status of those with comorbid disease is significantly worse than those with GAD or MDE only. Improved diagnosis, screening for comorbidity and management are essential to minimize the impacts of this mental illness.

INTRODUCTION: Bien que le trouble d'anxiété généralisée (TAG) soit une affection courante et incapacitante, peu d'études ont été menées à son sujet au Canada. Nous avons comparé les Canadiens atteints du TAG avec ceux atteints de dépression sur le plan de leurs caractéristiques, de leur état de santé, de leur utilisation des services de santé et de leurs besoins en matière de santé. MÉTHODOLOGIE: : Les données sont tirées de l'Enquête sur la santé dans les collectivités canadiennes ­ Santé mentale de 2012, qui portait sur un échantillon représentatif de la population canadienne de 15 ans et plus (n = 23 709; taux de réponse de 68,9 %). Nous avons sélectionné les répondants ayant fait état de symptômes compatibles avec un TAG ou un épisode dépressif majeur (EDM) dans les 12 mois précédant l'enquête (n = 1 598). Les estimations ont été pondérées afin de représenter la population des ménages au Canada. Nous avons mené des analyses de régression logistiques multidimensionnelles multinomiales et descriptives. RÉSULTATS: En 2012, environ 700 000 (2,5 %) Canadiens de 15 ans et plus ont fait état de symptômes compatibles avec un TAG dans les 12 derniers mois. La moitié d'entre eux ont également mentionné des symptômes d'EDM. La fréquence des perceptions d'une santé passable ou mauvaise (29,7 %), de détresse psychologique modérée et sévère (81,2 %) et d'incapacité modérée et sévère (28,1 %) était comparable (voire légèrement supérieure) chez les personnes présentant un TAG seulement par rapport aux personnes présentant un EDM seulement (respectivement 24,7 %, 78,8 % et 24,8 %). Les pires résultats de santé ont été observés chez les personnes souffrant d'un TAG et d'un EDM en comorbidité : 47,3 % ont fait état d'une santé passable ou mauvaise, 94,0 % d'une détresse psychologique modérée ou sévère et 52,4 % d'une incapacité modérée ou sévère. Près de 50 % des personnes souffrant d'un TAG et d'un EDM en comorbidité ont déclaré que leurs besoins en matière de santé n'avaient pas été satisfaits ou avaient été partiellement satisfaits, contre environ 30 % des personnes souffrant d'un TAG ou d'un EDM seulement. CONCLUSION: Bien que le TAG soit associé à des degrés de détresse et d'incapacité comparables (ou légèrement supérieurs) à l'EDM, l'état de santé des personnes présentant ces deux affections en même temps est nettement moins bon que celui des personnes présentant uniquement l'un ou l'autre. Il est essentiel d'améliorer le diagnostic, le dépistage des comorbidités et la prise en charge pour réduire les impacts de ce trouble mental.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator.

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly.

Arthritis has an impact on the daily lives of Canadians young and old: results from a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: There is a perception that the impacts of arthritis are greatest among older adults. However, the effect of age on health-related outcomes in individuals with arthritis has not been explicitly studied. This study examined whether the physical and mental health impacts of arthritis are greater in older (75+ years) versus younger (20-44, 45-64 and 65-74 years) Canadian adults. METHODS: Data were from the arthritis component of the 2009 Survey on Living with Chronic Diseases in Canada. The responses were weighted to be representative of Canadians (≥20 years) with arthritis. Associations between age and the prevalence of severe/frequent joint pain, severe/frequent fatigue, sleep limitations, instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) limitations, high levels of stress, suboptimal general and suboptimal mental health, were examined descriptively prior to conducting multivariate log-binomial regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 4565 respondents completed the survey (78% response rate). Individuals with arthritis were mostly female (63%), of working age (57%) and overweight or obese (67%). Upon adjusting for covariates, younger (20-44 years) and/or middle aged (45-64 years) adults were more likely than those older (75+ years) to report severe/frequent joint pain, sleep limitations, high levels of stress and suboptimal mental health. After adjusting for covariates, age was not associated with IADL limitations, severe/frequent fatigue or suboptimal general health. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the belief that older adults with arthritis experience more severe physical and mental health outcomes, we found that older adults were less likely to report worse outcomes than younger adults. In light of these findings, public health messaging should stress that arthritis does not just affect the elderly and emphasize the importance of timely diagnosis and management at all ages in order to prevent or, minimize arthritis-related impairment.

Estimating the prevalence of COPD in Canada: Reported diagnosis versus measured airflow obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) prevalence based on self-reports of a diagnosis are thought to underestimate the prevalence of COPD in Canada. DATA AND METHODS: Pre-bronchodilator spirometry measures were obtained from the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey for 2,487 individuals aged 35 to 79. The prevalence of self-reported chronic bronchitis symptoms and self-reported diagnosis of COPD by a health care professional was compared with the prevalence of measured airflow obstruction according to seven definitions, including the Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria. RESULTS: The prevalence of measured airflow obstruction compatible with COPD was two to six times greater than estimates based on self-reports of a diagnosis. An estimated 16.6% (95% CI: 14.3%-18.9%) of people aged 35 to 79 had pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction as defined by ≥ GOLD stage I, and 8.1% (95% CI: 6.0%-10.2%) had ≥ GOLD stage II. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that the prevalence of COPD in Canada has been underestimated.

Sleep laboratory test referrals in Canada: sleep apnea rapid response survey.

BACKGROUND: An estimated 5.4 million Canadian adults have been diagnosed with sleep apnea or are at high risk of experiencing obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). There are no recent Canadian data regarding access to and predictors of referral for diagnostic testing in these populations. METHODS: The Sleep Apnea Rapid Response survey sampled 8647 Canadian adults and captured information about risk, testing, diagnosis and treatment of sleep apnea. Predictors of sleep laboratory test referrals were assessed using log-linked binomial regression modelling. Information regarding sleep testing facilities was updated at the provincial and regional levels. RESULTS: Approximately 76.8% (95% CI 70.1% to 83.6%) of adult Canadians with sleep apnea and 5.1% (95% CI 3.4% to 6.7%) of those at high risk for OSA reported being referred to a sleep laboratory. Significant predictors of sleep laboratory referral in the general population were male sex, middle age, overweight or obese, a chronic condition, having a regular medical doctor and reporting symptoms of sleep apnea. Region of residence was also a predictor of reported sleep laboratory referral, with individuals from Ontario being more likely to report being referred to a sleep laboratory versus individuals from other regions. CONCLUSION: Individuals reporting risk factors and symptoms associated with OSA were more likely to report a sleep laboratory testing referral compared with those without risk factors or symptoms. However, Canada's diagnostic sleep laboratory testing capacity varies across regions and is believed to be inadequate given the number of individuals at high risk for OSA who did not report testing referral.

Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Predicting the future impact of droughts on ungulate populations in arid and semi-arid environments.

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21(st) century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

Predicting how populations decline to extinction.

Global species extinction typically represents the endpoint in a long sequence of population declines and local extinctions. In comparative studies of extinction risk of contemporary mammalian species, there appear to be some universal traits that may predispose taxa to an elevated risk of extinction. In local population-level studies, there are limited insights into the process of population decline and extinction. Moreover, there is still little appreciation of how local processes scale up to global patterns. Advancing the understanding of factors which predispose populations to rapid declines will benefit proactive conservation and may allow us to target at-risk populations as well as at-risk species. Here, we take mammalian population trend data from the largest repository of population abundance trends, and combine it with the PanTHERIA database on mammal traits to answer the question: what factors can be used to predict decline in mammalian abundance? We find in general that environmental variables are better determinants of cross-species population-level decline than intrinsic biological traits. For effective conservation, we must not only describe which species are at risk and why, but also prescribe ways to counteract this.

Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines.

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.