Burden of antimicrobial prescribing in primary care attributable to sore throat: a retrospective cohort study of patient record data.

BACKGROUND: Reducing antibiotic use in Australia, and the subsequent impact on antimicrobial resistance, requires multiple, sustained approaches with appropriate resources and support. Additional strategies to reduce antibiotic prescribing include effective vaccines, against pathogens such as Streptococcus pyogenes, the most common bacterial cause of sore throat. As part of efforts towards assessing the benefits of introducing new strategies to reduce antimicrobial prescribing, we aimed to determine the burden of antimicrobial prescribing for sore throat in general practice. METHODS: General practice activity data from 2013 - 2017 derived from the first 8 practices participating in the 'Primary Care Audit, Teaching and Research Open Network' (Patron) program were analysed according to reason for visit (upper respiratory tract infection, URTI, or sore throat) and antibiotic prescription. The main outcome measures were percentage of sore throat or URTI presentations with antibiotic prescription by age. RESULTS: A total of 722,339 visits to general practice were made by 65,449 patients; 5.7% of visits were for URTI with 0.8% meeting the more specific criteria for sore throat. 66.1% of sore throat visits and 36.2% of URTI visits resulted in antibiotic prescription. Penicillin, the recommended antibiotic for sore throat when indicated, was the antibiotic of choice in only 52.9% of sore throat cases prescribed antibiotics. Broader spectrum antibiotics were prescribed more frequently in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of antibiotic prescribing for sore throat is high and broad, despite Australian Therapeutic guideline recommendations. Multiple, sustained interventions to reduce prescribing, including availability of effective S. pyogenes vaccines that could reduce the incidence of streptococcal pharyngitis, could obviate the need to prescribe antibiotics and support ongoing efforts to promote antimicrobial stewardship.

Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a 'National Plan' to reopening.

The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia's transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders. Using evidence of vaccine effectiveness against the then-circulating Delta variant, we used a mathematical model to determine coverage targets. The absence of any COVID-19 infections in many sub-national jurisdictions in Australia posed particular methodological challenges. We used a novel metric called Transmission Potential (TP) as a proxy measure of the population-level effective reproduction number. We estimated TP of the Delta variant under a range of PHSMs, test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) efficiencies, vaccination coverage thresholds, and age-based vaccine allocation strategies. We found that high coverage across all ages (≥70%) combined with ongoing TTIQ and minimal PHSMs was sufficient to avoid lockdowns. At lesser coverage (≤60%) rapid case escalation risked overwhelming of the health sector or the need to reimpose stricter restrictions. Maintaining low case numbers was most beneficial for health and the economy, and at higher coverage levels (≥80%) further easing of restrictions was deemed possible. These results directly informed easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia.

Estimating the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australian states and territories used test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) systems extensively in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. We report on an analysis of Australian case data to estimate the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: Our analysis uses a novel mathematical modelling framework and detailed surveillance data on COVID-19 cases including dates of infection and dates of isolation. First, we directly translate an empirical distribution of times from infection to isolation into reductions in potential for onward transmission during periods of relatively low caseloads (tens to hundreds of reported cases per day). We then apply a simulation approach, validated against case data, to assess the impact of case-initiated contact tracing on transmission during a period of relatively higher caseloads and system stress (up to thousands of cases per day). RESULTS: We estimate that under relatively low caseloads in the state of New South Wales (tens of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 54% reduction in transmission. Under higher caseloads in the state of Victoria (hundreds of cases per day), TTIQ contributed to a 42% reduction in transmission. Our results also suggest that case-initiated contact tracing can support timely quarantine in times of system stress (thousands of cases per day). CONCLUSION: Contact tracing systems for COVID-19 in Australia were highly effective and adaptable in supporting the national suppression strategy from 2020-21, prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant in November 2021. TTIQ systems were critical to the maintenance of the strong suppression strategy and were more effective when caseloads were (relatively) low.

Having a real say: findings from first nations community panels on pandemic influenza vaccine distribution.

BACKGROUND: Recent deliberations by Australian public health researchers and practitioners produced an ethical framework of how decisions should be made to distribute pandemic influenza vaccine. The outcome of the deliberations was that the population should be considered in two categories, Level 1 and Level 2, with Level 1 groups being offered access to the pandemic influenza vaccine before other groups. However, the public health researchers and practitioners recognised the importance of making space for public opinion and sought to understand citizens values and preferences, especially First Nations peoples. METHODS: We conducted First Nations Community Panels in two Australian locations in 2019 to assess First Nations people's informed views through a deliberative process on pandemic influenza vaccination distribution strategies. Panels were asked to make decisions on priority levels, coverage and vaccine doses. RESULTS: Two panels were conducted with eighteen First Nations participants from a range of ages who were purposively recruited through local community networks. Panels heard presentations from public health experts, cross-examined expert presenters and deliberated on the issues. Both panels agreed that First Nations peoples be assigned Level 1 priority, be offered pandemic influenza vaccination before other groups, and be offered two doses of vaccine. Reasons for this decision included First Nations people's lives, culture and families are important; are at-risk of severe health outcomes; and experience barriers and challenges to accessing safe, quality and culturally appropriate healthcare. We found that communication strategies, utilising and upskilling the First Nations health workforce, and targeted vaccination strategies are important elements in pandemic preparedness and response with First Nations peoples. CONCLUSIONS: First Nations Community Panels supported prioritising First Nations peoples for pandemic influenza vaccination distribution and offering greater protection by using a two-dose full course to fewer people if there are initial supply limitations, instead of one dose to more people, during the initial phase of the vaccine roll out. The methodology and findings can help inform efforts in planning for future pandemic vaccination strategies for First Nations peoples in Australia.

Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact.

Although the most recent respiratory virus pandemic was triggered by a Coronavirus, sustained and elevated prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses able to infect mammalian hosts highlight the continued threat of pandemics of influenza A virus (IAV) to global health. Retrospective analysis of pandemic outcomes, including comparative investigation of intervention efficacy in different regions, provide important contributions to the evidence base for future pandemic planning. The swine-origin IAV pandemic of 2009 exhibited regional variation in onset, infection dynamics and annual infection attack rates (IARs). For example, the UK experienced three severe peaks of infection over two influenza seasons, whilst Australia experienced a single severe wave. We adopt a seasonally forced 2-subtype model for the transmission of pH1N12009 and seasonal H3N2 to examine the role vaccination campaigns may play in explaining differences in pandemic trajectories in temperate regions. Our model differentiates between the nature of vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity. In particular, we assume that immunity triggered by infection elicits heterologous cross-protection against viral shedding in addition to long-lasting neutralising antibody, whereas vaccination induces imperfect reduction in susceptibility. We employ an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework to calibrate the model using data for pH1N12009 seroprevalence, relative subtype dominance, and annual IARs for Australia and the UK. Heterologous cross-protection substantially suppressed the pandemic IAR over the posterior, with the strength of protection against onward transmission inversely correlated with the initial reproduction number. We show that IAV pandemic timing relative to the usual seasonal influenza cycle influenced the size of the initial waves of pH1N12009 in temperate regions and the impact of vaccination campaigns.

Rapid prototyping of models for COVID-19 outbreak detection in workplaces.

Early case detection is critical to preventing onward transmission of COVID-19 by enabling prompt isolation of index infections, and identification and quarantining of contacts. Timeliness and completeness of ascertainment depend on the surveillance strategy employed. This paper presents modelling used to inform workplace testing strategies for the Australian government in early 2021. We use rapid prototype modelling to quickly investigate the effectiveness of testing strategies to aid decision making. Models are developed with a focus on providing relevant results to policy makers, and these models are continually updated and improved as new questions are posed. Developed to support the implementation of testing strategies in high risk workplace settings in Australia, our modelling explores the effects of test frequency and sensitivity on outbreak detection. We start with an exponential growth model, which demonstrates how outbreak detection changes depending on growth rate, test frequency and sensitivity. From the exponential model, we learn that low sensitivity tests can produce high probabilities of detection when testing occurs frequently. We then develop a more complex Agent Based Model, which was used to test the robustness of the results from the exponential model, and extend it to include intermittent workplace scheduling. These models help our fundamental understanding of disease detectability through routine surveillance in workplaces and evaluate the impact of testing strategies and workplace characteristics on the effectiveness of surveillance. This analysis highlights the risks of particular work patterns while also identifying key testing strategies to best improve outbreak detection in high risk workplaces.

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks.

To complement labour-intensive conventional contact tracing, digital proximity tracing was implemented widely during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the privacy-centred design of the dominant Google-Apple exposure notification framework has hindered assessment of its effectiveness. Between October 2021 and January 2022, we systematically collected app use and notification receipt data within a test and trace programme targeting around 50,000 university students in Leuven, Belgium. Due to low success rates in each studied step of the digital notification cascade, only 4.3% of exposed contacts (CI: 2.8-6.1%) received such notifications, resulting in 10 times more cases detected through conventional contact tracing. Moreover, the infection risk of digitally traced contacts (5.0%; CI: 3.0-7.7%) was lower than that of conventionally traced non-app users (9.8%; CI: 8.8-10.7%; p = 0.002). Contrary to common perception as near instantaneous, there was a 1.2-day delay (CI: 0.6-2.2) between case PCR result and digital contact notification. These results highlight major limitations of a digital proximity tracing system based on the dominant framework.

Modelling mass drug administration strategies for reducing scabies burden in Monrovia, Liberia.

Scabies is a parasitic infestation with high global burden. Mass drug administrations (MDAs) are recommended for communities with a scabies prevalence of >10%. Quantitative analyses are needed to demonstrate the likely effectiveness of MDA recommendations. In this study, we developed an agent-based model of scabies transmission calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data from Monrovia. We used this model to compare the effectiveness of MDA scenarios for achieving scabies elimination and reducing scabies burden, as measured by time until recrudescence following delivery of an MDA and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted. Our model showed that three rounds of MDA delivered at six-month intervals and reaching 80% of the population could reduce prevalence below 2% for three years following the final round, before recrudescence. When MDAs were followed by increased treatment uptake, prevalence was maintained below 2% indefinitely. Increasing the number of and coverage of MDA rounds increased the probability of achieving elimination and the number of DALYs averted. Our results suggest that acute reduction of scabies prevalence by MDA can support a transition to improved treatment access. This study demonstrates how modelling can be used to estimate the expected impact of MDAs by projecting future epidemiological dynamics and health gains under alternative scenarios.

COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting.

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures-assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.

Keeping kids in school: modelling school-based testing and quarantine strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

Background: In 2021, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a consortium of modelling groups to generate evidence assisting the transition from a goal of no community COVID-19 transmission to 'living with COVID-19', with adverse health and social consequences limited by vaccination and other measures. Due to the extended school closures over 2020-21, maximizing face-to-face teaching was a major objective during this transition. The consortium was tasked with informing school surveillance and contact management strategies to minimize infections and support this goal. Methods: Outcomes considered were infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost in the 45 days following an outbreak within an otherwise COVID-naïve school setting. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission was used to evaluate a 'test-to-stay' strategy using daily rapid antigen tests (RATs) for close contacts of a case for 7 days compared with home quarantine; and an asymptomatic surveillance strategy involving twice-weekly screening of all students and/or teachers using RATs. Findings: Test-to-stay had similar effectiveness for reducing school infections as extended home quarantine, without the associated days of face-to-face teaching lost. Asymptomatic screening was beneficial in reducing both infections and days of face-to-face teaching lost and was most beneficial when community prevalence was high. Interpretation: Use of RATs in school settings for surveillance and contact management can help to maximize face-to-face teaching and minimize outbreaks. This evidence supported the implementation of surveillance testing in schools in several Australian jurisdictions from January 2022.

Household transmission investigation: Design, reporting and critical appraisal.

Background: Household transmission investigations (HHTIs) contribute timely epidemiologic knowledge in response to emerging pathogens. HHTIs conducted in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 reported variable methodological approaches, producing epidemiological estimates that vary in meaning, precision and accuracy. Because specific tools to assist with the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs are not available, the aggregation and pooling of inferences from HHTIs to inform policy and interventions may be challenging. Methods: In this manuscript, we discuss key aspects of the HHTI design, provide recommendations for the reporting of these studies and propose an appraisal tool that contributes to the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs. Results: The appraisal tool consists of 12 questions that explore 10 aspects of HHTIs and can be answered 'yes', 'no' or 'unclear'. We provide an example of the use of this tool in the context of a systematic review that aimed to quantify the household secondary attack rate from HHTIs. Conclusion: We seek to fill a gap in the epidemiologic literature and contribute to standardised HHTI approaches across settings to achieve richer and more informative datasets.

SARS-CoV-2 seroepidemiology in Mongolia, 2020-2021: a longitudinal national study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has global impacts but is relatively understudied in developing countries. Mongolia, a lower-middle-income country, instituted strict control measures in early 2020 and avoided widespread transmission until vaccines became available in February, 2021. Mongolia achieved its 60% vaccination coverage goal by July 2021. We investigated the distribution and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Mongolia over 2020 and 2021. Methods: We performed a longitudinal seroepidemiologic study aligned with WHO's Unity Studies protocols. We collected data from a panel of 5000 individuals in four rounds between October 2020 and December 2021. We selected participants through local health centres across Mongolia by age-stratified multi-stage cluster sampling. We tested serum for the presence of total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain, and levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG and neutralising antibodies. We linked participant data with national mortality, COVID-19 case, and vaccination registries. We estimated population seroprevalence and vaccine uptake, as well as unvaccinated population prior-infection prevalence. Findings: At the final round in late 2021, 82% (n = 4088) of participants completed follow-up. Estimated seroprevalence increased from 1.5% (95% CI: 1.2-2.0), to 82.3% (95% CI: 79.5-84.8) between late-2020 and late-2021. At the final round an estimated 62.4% (95% CI: 60.2-64.5) of the population were vaccinated, and of the unvaccinated population 64.5% (95% CI: 59.7-69.0) had been infected. Cumulative case ascertainment in the unvaccinated was 22.8% (95% CI: 19.1%-26.9%) and the overall infection-fatality ratio was 0.100% (95% CI: 0.088-0.124). Health workers had higher odds for being COVID-19 confirmed cases at all rounds. Males (1.72 (95% CI: 1.33-2.22)) and adults aged 20 and above (12.70 (95% CI: 8.14-20.26)) had higher odds for seroconverting by mid-2021. Among the seropositive, 87.1% (95% CI: 82.3%-90.8%) had SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies by late 2021. Interpretation: Our study enabled tracking of SARS-CoV-2 serological markers in the Mongolian population over one year. We found low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2020 and early 2021, with seropositivity increasing over a 3-month interval in 2021 due to vaccine roll out and rapid infection of most of the unvaccinated population. Despite high seroprevalence in Mongolia amongst both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals by end-2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron immune escape variant caused a substantial epidemic. Funding: World Health Organization, WHO UNITY Studies initiative, with funding by the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund and the German Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) COVID-19 Research and development. The Ministry of Health, Mongolia partially funded this study.

Forecasting COVID-19 activity in Australia to support pandemic response: May to October 2020.

As of January 2021, Australia had effectively controlled local transmission of COVID-19 despite a steady influx of imported cases and several local, but contained, outbreaks in 2020. Throughout 2020, state and territory public health responses were informed by weekly situational reports that included an ensemble forecast of daily COVID-19 cases for each jurisdiction. We present here an analysis of one forecasting model included in this ensemble across the variety of scenarios experienced by each jurisdiction from May to October 2020. We examine how successfully the forecasts characterised future case incidence, subject to variations in data timeliness and completeness, showcase how we adapted these forecasts to support decisions of public health priority in rapidly-evolving situations, evaluate the impact of key model features on forecast skill, and demonstrate how to assess forecast skill in real-time before the ground truth is known. Conditioning the model on the most recent, but incomplete, data improved the forecast skill, emphasising the importance of developing strong quantitative models of surveillance system characteristics, such as ascertainment delay distributions. Forecast skill was highest when there were at least 10 reported cases per day, the circumstances in which authorities were most in need of forecasts to aid in planning and response.

Evaluating the role of asymptomatic throat carriage of Streptococcus pyogenes in impetigo transmission in remote Aboriginal communities in Northern Territory, Australia: a retrospective genomic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pyogenes, or group A Streptococcus (GAS), infections contribute to a high burden of disease in Aboriginal Australians, causing skin infections and immune sequelae such as rheumatic heart disease. Controlling skin infections in these populations has proven difficult, with transmission dynamics being poorly understood. We aimed to identify the relative contributions of impetigo and asymptomatic throat carriage to GAS transmission. METHODS: In this genomic analysis, we retrospectively applied whole genome sequencing to GAS isolates that were collected as part of an impetigo surveillance longitudinal household survey conducted in three remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory of Australia between Aug 6, 2003, and June 22, 2005. We included GAS isolates from all throats and impetigo lesions of people living in two of the previously studied communities. We classified isolates into genomic lineages based on pairwise shared core genomes of more than 99% with five or fewer single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used a household network analysis of epidemiologically and genomically linked lineages to quantify the transmission of GAS within and between households. FINDINGS: We included 320 GAS isolates in our analysis: 203 (63%) from asymptomatic throat swabs and 117 (37%) from impetigo lesions. Among 64 genomic lineages (encompassing 39 emm types) we identified 264 transmission links (involving 93% of isolates), for which the probable source was asymptomatic throat carriage in 166 (63%) and impetigo lesions in 98 (37%). Links originating from impetigo cases were more frequent between households than within households. Households were infected with GAS for a mean of 57 days (SD 39 days), and once cleared, reinfected 62 days (SD 40 days) later. Increased household size and community presence of GAS and scabies were associated with slower clearance of GAS. INTERPRETATION: In communities with high prevalence of endemic GAS-associated skin infection, asymptomatic throat carriage is a GAS reservoir. Public health interventions such as vaccination or community infection control programmes aimed at interrupting transmission of GAS might need to include consideration of asymptomatic throat carriage. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence.

Against a backdrop of widespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major outbreaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated from a time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority. Absence of case data means that this potential cannot be estimated directly. We present a semi-mechanistic modelling framework that draws on time-series of both behavioural data and case data (when disease activity is present) to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 from periods of high to low - or zero - case incidence, with a coherent transition in interpretation across the changing epidemiological situations. Of note, during periods of epidemic activity, our analysis recovers the effective reproduction number, while during periods of low - or zero - case incidence, it provides an estimate of transmission risk. This enables tracking and planning of progress towards the control of large outbreaks, maintenance of virus suppression, and monitoring the risk posed by re-introduction of the virus. We demonstrate the value of our methods by reporting on their use throughout 2020 in Australia, where they have become a central component of the national COVID-19 response.

Evaluation of the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The Australian First Few X (FFX) Household Transmission Project for COVID-19 was the first prospective, multi-jurisdictional study of its kind in Australia. The project was undertaken as a partnership between federal and state health departments and the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) and was active from April to October 2020. METHODS: We aimed to identify and explore the challenges and strengths of the Australian FFX Project to inform future FFX study development and integration into pandemic preparedness plans. We asked key stakeholders and partners involved with implementation to identify and rank factors relating to the strengths and challenges of project implementation in two rounds of modified Delphi surveys. Key representatives from jurisdictional health departments were then interviewed to contextualise findings within public health processes and information needs to develop a final set of recommendations for FFX study development in Australia. RESULTS: Four clear recommendations emerged from the evaluation. Future preparedness planning should aim to formalise and embed partnerships between health departments and researchers to help better integrate project data collection into core public health surveillance activities. The development of functional, adaptable protocols with pre-established ethics and governance approvals and investment in national data infrastructure were additional priority areas noted by evaluation participants. CONCLUSION: The evaluation provided a great opportunity to consolidate lessons learnt from the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project. The developed recommendations should be incorporated into future pandemic preparedness plans in Australia to enable effective implementation and increase local utility and value of the FFX platform within emergency public health response.

Model-based estimation of the impact on rotavirus disease of RV3-BB vaccine administered in a neonatal or infant schedule.

Rotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries where vaccine access is limited and efficacy is lower. The oral human neonatal vaccine RV3-BB can be safely administered earlier than other vaccines, and recent trials in Indonesia have demonstrated high efficacy. In this study, we use a stochastic individual-based model of rotavirus transmission and disease to estimate the anticipated population-level impact of RV3-BB following delivery according to either an infant (2, 4, 6 months) and neonatal (0, 2, 4 months) schedule. Using our model, which incorporated an age- and household-structured population and estimates of vaccine efficacy derived from trial data, we found both delivery schedules to be effective at reducing infection and disease. We estimated 95-96% reductions in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age when vaccine coverage is 85%. We also estimate high levels of indirect protection from vaccination, including 78% reductions in infection in adults over 17 years of age. Even for lower vaccine coverage of 55%, we estimate reductions of 84% in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age. While open questions remain about the drivers of observed lower efficacy in low-income settings, our model suggests RV3-BB could be effective at reducing infection and preventing disease in young infants at the population level.