Estimated Effects of Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Protein Intake and the Risk of Protein Deficiency by Country and Region.

BACKGROUND: Crops grown under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) contain less protein. Crops particularly affected include rice and wheat, which are primary sources of dietary protein for many countries. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate global and country-specific risks of protein deficiency attributable to anthropogenic CO2 emissions by 2050. METHODS: To model per capita protein intake in countries around the world under eCO2, we first established the effect size of eCO2 on the protein concentration of edible portions of crops by performing a meta-analysis of published literature. We then estimated per-country protein intake under current and anticipated future eCO2 using global food balance sheets (FBS). We modeled protein intake distributions within countries using Gini coefficients, and we estimated those at risk of deficiency from estimated average protein requirements (EAR) weighted by population age structure. RESULTS: Under eCO2, rice, wheat, barley, and potato protein contents decreased by 7.6%, 7.8%, 14.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Consequently, 18 countries may lose >5% of their dietary protein, including India (5.3%). By 2050, assuming today's diets and levels of income inequality, an additional 1.6% or 148.4 million of the world's population may be placed at risk of protein deficiency because of eCO2. In India, an additional 53 million people may become at risk. CONCLUSIONS: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions threaten the adequacy of protein intake worldwide. Elevated atmospheric CO2 may widen the disparity in protein intake within countries, with plant-based diets being the most vulnerable. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP41.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand.

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.

Trans-disciplinary research in synthesis of grass pollen aerobiology and its importance for respiratory health in Australasia.

Grass pollen is a major trigger for allergic rhinitis and asthma, yet little is known about the timing and levels of human exposure to airborne grass pollen across Australasian urban environments. The relationships between environmental aeroallergen exposure and allergic respiratory disease bridge the fields of ecology, aerobiology, geospatial science and public health. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group comprised of experts in botany, palynology, biogeography, climate change science, plant genetics, biostatistics, ecology, pollen allergy, public and environmental health, and medicine, was established to systematically source, collate and analyse atmospheric pollen concentration data from 11 Australian and six New Zealand sites. Following two week-long workshops, post-workshop evaluations were conducted to reflect upon the utility of this analysis and synthesis approach to address complex multidisciplinary questions. This Working Group described i) a biogeographically dependent variation in airborne pollen diversity, ii) a latitudinal gradient in the timing, duration and number of peaks of the grass pollen season, and iii) the emergence of new methodologies based on trans-disciplinary synthesis of aerobiology and remote sensing data. Challenges included resolving methodological variations between pollen monitoring sites and temporal variations in pollen datasets. Other challenges included "marrying" ecosystem and health sciences and reconciling divergent expert opinion. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group facilitated knowledge transfer between diverse scientific disciplines, mentored students and early career scientists, and provided an uninterrupted collaborative opportunity to focus on a unifying problem globally. The Working Group provided a platform to optimise the value of large existing ecological datasets that have importance for human respiratory health and ecosystems research. Compilation of current knowledge of Australasian pollen aerobiology is a critical first step towards the management of exposure to pollen in patients with allergic disease and provides a basis from which the future impacts of climate change on pollen distribution can be assessed and monitored.

Xylem traits mediate a trade-off between resistance to freeze-thaw-induced embolism and photosynthetic capacity in overwintering evergreens.

Hydraulic traits were studied in temperate, woody evergreens in a high-elevation heath community to test for trade-offs between the delivery of water to canopies at rates sufficient to sustain photosynthesis and protection against disruption to vascular transport caused by freeze-thaw-induced embolism. Freeze-thaw-induced loss in hydraulic conductivity was studied in relation to xylem anatomy, leaf- and sapwood-specific hydraulic conductivity and gas exchange characteristics of leaves. We found evidence that a trade-off between xylem transport capacity and safety from freeze-thaw-induced embolism affects photosynthetic activity in overwintering evergreens. The mean hydraulically weighted xylem vessel diameter and sapwood-specific conductivity correlated with susceptibility to freeze-thaw-induced embolism. There was also a strong correlation of hydraulic supply and demand across species; interspecific differences in stomatal conductance and CO(2) assimilation rates were correlated linearly with sapwood- and leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity. Xylem vessel anatomy mediated an apparent trade-off between resistance to freeze-thaw-induced embolism and hydraulic and photosynthetic capacity during the winter. These results point to a new role for xylem functional traits in determining the degree to which species can maintain photosynthetic carbon gain despite freezing events and cold winter temperatures.

Effects of growth temperature on photosynthetic gas exchange characteristics and hydraulic anatomy in leaves of two cold-climate Poa species.

How plastic is hydraulic anatomy with growth temperature, and how does this relate to photosynthesis? These interrelationships were studied in subantarctic Poa foliosa Hook. f. and alpine Poa hothamensis Vickery grown under 7/4°C and 12/9°C day/night temperatures, reflecting summer temperatures in their respective habitats. Conduit radii were smaller in P. foliosa than in P. hothamensis, consistent with greater avoidance of freeze/thaw-induced embolism. Despite its origins in an environment with relatively little temperature variation, P. foliosa exhibited greater plasticity in hydraulic anatomy than P. hothamensis, increasing the size and density of conduits when grown under the warmer temperature regime. Both species had similar anatomical capacities for water transport when grown at 12/9°C, but stomatal conductance was lower in P. foliosa than P. hothamensis, suggesting hydraulic limitations not explained by leaf vascular anatomy. However, greater photosynthetic capacity and foliar nitrogen contents enabled P. foliosa to achieve the same assimilation rate as P. hothamensis under the 12/9°C growth conditions. Our results showed that nitrogen plays a central role in maintaining assimilation rates when constrained either by enzymatic activity at low temperatures or by hydraulic limitations at high temperatures and evaporative demands. Interspecific differences in nitrogen and water use may influence how subantarctic and alpine vegetation responds to climate warming.

Relative contributions of leaf area ratio and net assimilation rate to change in growth rate depend on growth temperature: comparative analysis of subantarctic and alpine grasses.

The present study shows that the relative contributions of leaf area ratio (LAR) and net assimilation rate (NAR) to variation among species in relative growth rate (RGR) depend on growth temperature. We grew three subantarctic and three alpine Poa species at daytime temperatures of 7, 12 and 17 degrees C, and analysed interspecific and temperature-related variation in RGRs by growth analysis. Variation in NAR accounted for most of the interspecific differences in RGR at low growth temperature, whereas variation in both NAR and LAR contributed strongly to interspecific differences in RGR at high growth temperature. For most species, the increase in RGR from 7 to 12 degrees C was attributable to an increase in LAR, whereas the increase in RGR from 12 to 17 degrees C was attributable to an increase in NAR. There were no differences between native subantarctic and alpine species in the plasticity of growth responses to temperature. However, Poa annua, a species introduced to the subantarctic, showed much greater growth plasticity than other species. There was little difference among species in tolerance of high-temperature extremes.