Surrogate modeling and control of medical digital twins.

The vision of personalized medicine is to identify interventions that maintain or restore a person's health based on their individual biology. Medical digital twins, computational models that integrate a wide range of health-related data about a person and can be dynamically updated, are a key technology that can help guide medical decisions. Such medical digital twin models can be high-dimensional, multi-scale, and stochastic. To be practical for healthcare applications, they often need to be simplified into low-dimensional surrogate models that can be used for optimal design of interventions. This paper introduces surrogate modeling algorithms for the purpose of optimal control applications. As a use case, we focus on agent-based models (ABMs), a common model type in biomedicine for which there are no readily available optimal control algorithms. By deriving surrogate models that are based on systems of ordinary differential equations, we show how optimal control methods can be employed to compute effective interventions, which can then be lifted back to a given ABM. The relevance of the methods introduced here extends beyond medical digital twins to other complex dynamical systems.

Toward mechanistic medical digital twins: some use cases in immunology.

A fundamental challenge for personalized medicine is to capture enough of the complexity of an individual patient to determine an optimal way to keep them healthy or restore their health. This will require personalized computational models of sufficient resolution and with enough mechanistic information to provide actionable information to the clinician. Such personalized models are increasingly referred to as medical digital twins. Digital twin technology for health applications is still in its infancy, and extensive research and development is required. This article focuses on several projects in different stages of development that can lead to specific-and practical-medical digital twins or digital twin modeling platforms. It emerged from a two-day forum on problems related to medical digital twins, particularly those involving an immune system component. Open access video recordings of the forum discussions are available.

Forum on immune digital twins: a meeting report.

Medical digital twins are computational models of human biology relevant to a given medical condition, which are tailored to an individual patient, thereby predicting the course of disease and individualized treatments, an important goal of personalized medicine. The immune system, which has a central role in many diseases, is highly heterogeneous between individuals, and thus poses a major challenge for this technology. In February 2023, an international group of experts convened for two days to discuss these challenges related to immune digital twins. The group consisted of clinicians, immunologists, biologists, and mathematical modelers, representative of the interdisciplinary nature of medical digital twin development. A video recording of the entire event is available. This paper presents a synopsis of the discussions, brief descriptions of ongoing digital twin projects at different stages of progress. It also proposes a 5-year action plan for further developing this technology. The main recommendations are to identify and pursue a small number of promising use cases, to develop stimulation-specific assays of immune function in a clinical setting, and to develop a database of existing computational immune models, as well as advanced modeling technology and infrastructure.

A Chest Pain Conundrum: Dapsone-Induced Methemoglobinemia in a Heart Transplant Patient.

We present the case of a 39-year-old male with a past medical history of orthotopic heart transplantation who presented with chest pain and dyspnea on exertion. He was diagnosed with dapsone-induced methemoglobinemia toward the end of his hospital course, and his condition clinically improved with the discontinuation of the offending agent. This case highlights the importance of medication review and history-taking. Clinicians should be mindful of dapsone-induced methemoglobinemia, especially when encountering patients with dyspnea and a history of dapsone intake.

Diagnostic and therapeutic practices of cardiac sarcoidosis in the United States: a nationwide questionnaire based study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) is the second most common cause of death in patients with sarcoidosis and data pertaining to its diagnosis and management is limited. We sought to describe diagnostic modalities and management of patients with CS in the United States, based on a national registry questionnaire. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study based on a national registry investigating 3,835 respondents to the Foundation for Sarcoidosis Research Questionnaire. The registry includes patient surveys completed between June 2014 and August 2019. Summary and univariate analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients (10.3%) with CS were identified; 57% (n=223) were women and 81% (n=317) were white. The mean (±SD) age at diagnosis was 45 years (±13). CS was the initial presentation of sarcoidosis in 30%. Multiorgan involvement (≥3 organs) was present in 68%. Two-thirds of patients were admitted at least once to the hospital. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (74.4%) was the most common diagnostic modality used followed by positron emission tomography (PET) scan (59.3%) and cardiac biopsy (n=52, 13%).  Most patients received corticosteroids (86%) and steroid-sparing medications (61%) including methotrexate (26%) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors (19%). A combined cardioverter defibrillator and pacemaker (39%) was the most common cardiac device implanted. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CS in this cohort was higher than previously described. CS was a common initial presentation of sarcoidosis. The diagnosis was most likely made using cMRI. Steroids, methotrexate and infliximab are the most common medications used. Conduction abnormalities and arrhythmias often occurred.

COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis in immunocompetent patients: a virtual patient cohort study.

The opportunistic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus infects the lungs of immunocompromised hosts, including patients undergoing chemotherapy or organ transplantation. More recently however, immunocompetent patients with severe SARS-CoV2 have been reported to be affected by COVID-19 Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis (CAPA), in the absence of the conventional risk factors for invasive aspergillosis. This paper explores the hypothesis that contributing causes are the destruction of the lung epithelium permitting colonization by opportunistic pathogens. At the same time, the exhaustion of the immune system, characterized by cytokine storms, apoptosis, and depletion of leukocytes may hinder the response to A. fumigatus infection. The combination of these factors may explain the onset of invasive aspergillosis in immunocompetent patients. We used a previously published computational model of the innate immune response to infection with Aspergillus fumigatus. Variation of model parameters was used to create a virtual patient population. A simulation study of this virtual patient population to test potential causes for co-infection in immunocompetent patients. The two most important factors determining the likelihood of CAPA were the inherent virulence of the fungus and the effectiveness of the neutrophil population, as measured by granule half-life and ability to kill fungal cells. Varying these parameters across the virtual patient population generated a realistic distribution of CAPA phenotypes observed in the literature. Computational models are an effective tool for hypothesis generation. Varying model parameters can be used to create a virtual patient population for identifying candidate mechanisms for phenomena observed in actual patient populations.

Hyperpolarized Xenon-129: A New Tool to Assess Pulmonary Physiology in Patients with Pulmonary Fibrosis.

PURPOSE: The existing tools to quantify lung function in interstitial lung diseases have significant limitations. Lung MRI imaging using inhaled hyperpolarized xenon-129 gas (129Xe) as a contrast agent is a new technology for measuring regional lung physiology. We sought to assess the utility of the 129Xe MRI in detecting impaired lung physiology in usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: After institutional review board approval and informed consent and in compliance with HIPAA regulations, we performed chest CT, pulmonary function tests (PFTs), and 129Xe MRI in 10 UIP subjects and 10 healthy controls. RESULTS: The 129Xe MRI detected highly heterogeneous abnormalities within individual UIP subjects as compared to controls. Subjects with UIP had markedly impaired ventilation (ventilation defect fraction: UIP: 30 ± 9%; healthy: 21 ± 9%; p = 0.026), a greater amount of 129Xe dissolved in the lung interstitium (tissue-to-gas ratio: UIP: 1.45 ± 0.35%; healthy: 1.10 ± 0.17%; p = 0.014), and impaired 129Xe diffusion into the blood (RBC-to-tissue ratio: UIP: 0.20 ± 0.06; healthy: 0.28 ± 0.05; p = 0.004). Most MRI variables had no correlation with the CT and PFT measurements. The elevated level of 129Xe dissolved in the lung interstitium, in particular, was detectable even in subjects with normal or mildly impaired PFTs, suggesting that this measurement may represent a new method for detecting early fibrosis. CONCLUSION: The hyperpolarized 129Xe MRI was highly sensitive to regional functional changes in subjects with UIP and may represent a new tool for understanding the pathophysiology, monitoring the progression, and assessing the effectiveness of treatment in UIP.

Sirolimus suppresses circulating fibrocytes in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in a randomized controlled crossover trial.

BACKGROUNDFibrocytes are BM-derived circulating cells that traffic to the injured lungs and contribute to fibrogenesis. The mTOR inhibitor, sirolimus, inhibits fibrocyte CXCR4 expression, reducing fibrocyte traffic and attenuating lung fibrosis in animal models. We sought to test the hypothesis that short-term treatment with sirolimus reduces the concentration of CXCR4+ circulating fibrocytes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).METHODSWe conducted a short-term randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover pilot trial to assess the safety and tolerability of sirolimus in IPF. Participants were randomly assigned to sirolimus or placebo for approximately 6 weeks, and after a 4-week washout, they were assigned to the alternate treatment. Toxicity, lung function, and the concentration of circulating fibrocytes were measured before and after each treatment.RESULTSIn the 28 study participants, sirolimus resulted in a statistically significant 35% decline in the concentration of total fibrocytes, 34% decline in CXCR4+ fibrocytes, and 42% decline in fibrocytes expressing α-smooth muscle actin, but no significant change in these populations occurred on placebo. Respiratory adverse events occurred more frequently during treatment with placebo than sirolimus; the incidence of adverse events and drug tolerability did not otherwise differ during therapy with drug and placebo. Lung function was unaffected by either treatment, with the exception of a small decline in gas transfer during treatment with placebo.CONCLUSIONAs compared with placebo, short-term treatment with sirolimus resulted in reduction of circulating fibrocyte concentrations in participants with IPF, with an acceptable safety profile.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov, accession no. NCT01462006.FUNDINGNIH R01HL098329 and American Heart Association 18TPA34170486.

Role of Transbronchial Lung Cryobiopsy in the Diagnosis of Interstitial Lung Disease: A Meta-analysis of 68 Studies and 6300 Patients.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of interstitial lung disease (ILD) is based on multidisciplinary team discussion (MDD) with the incorporation of clinical, radiographical, and histopathologic information if available. We aim to evaluate the diagnostic yield and safety outcomes of transbronchial lung cryobiopsy (TBLC) in the diagnosis of ILD. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis by comprehensive literature search to include all studies that evaluated the diagnostic yields and/or adverse events with TBLC in patients with ILD. We calculated the pooled event rates and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the diagnostic yield by MDD, histopathologic diagnostic yield, and various clinical adverse events. RESULTS: We included 68 articles (44 full texts and 24 abstracts) totaling 6386 patients with a mean age of 60.7±14.1 years and 56% men. The overall diagnostic yield of TBLC to achieve a definite or high-confidence diagnosis based on MDD was 82.3% (95% CI: 78.9%-85.2%) and histopathologic diagnosis of 72.5% (95% CI: 67.7%-76.9%). The overall rate of pneumothorax was 9.6% (95% CI: 7.9%-11%), while the rate of pneumothorax requiring drainage by a thoracostomy tube was 5.3% (95% CI: 4.1%-6.9%). The rate of moderate bleeding was 11.7% (95% CI: 9.1%-14.9%), while the rate of severe bleeding was 1.9% (95% CI: 1.4%-2.6%). The risk of mortality attributed to the procedure was 0.9% (95% CI: 0.7%-1.3%). CONCLUSION: Among patients with undiagnosed or unclassified ILD requiring tissue biopsy for diagnosis, transbronchial cryobiopsy represents a reliable alternative to surgical lung biopsy with decreased incidence of various clinical adverse events.

Kidney tubular epithelial cell ferroptosis links glomerular injury to tubulointerstitial pathology in lupus nephritis.

Ferroptosis is a druggable, iron-dependent form of cell death that is characterized by lipid peroxidation but has received little attention in lupus nephritis. Kidneys of lupus nephritis patients and mice showed increased lipid peroxidation mainly in the tubular segments and an increase in Acyl-CoA synthetase long-chain family member 4, a pro-ferroptosis enzyme. Nephritic mice had an attenuated expression of SLC7A11, a cystine importer, an impaired glutathione synthesis pathway, and low expression of glutathione peroxidase 4, a ferroptosis inhibitor. Lipidomics of nephritic kidneys confirmed ferroptosis. Using nephrotoxic serum, we induced immune complex glomerulonephritis in congenic mice and demonstrate that impaired iron sequestration within the proximal tubules exacerbates ferroptosis. Lupus nephritis patient serum rendered human proximal tubular cells susceptibility to ferroptosis which was inhibited by Liproxstatin-2, a novel ferroptosis inhibitor. Collectively, our findings identify intra-renal ferroptosis as a pathological feature and contributor to tubular injury in human and murine lupus nephritis.

COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis in immunocompetent patients: A virtual patient cohort study.

Purpose: The opportunistic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus infects the lungs of immunocompromised hosts, including patients undergoing chemotherapy or organ transplantation. More recently however, immunocompetent patients with severe SARS-CoV2 have been reported to be affected by COVID-19 Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis (CAPA), in the absence of the conventional risk factors for invasive aspergillosis. This paper explores the hypothesis that contributing causes are the destruction of the lung epithelium permitting colonization by opportunistic pathogens. At the same time, the exhaustion of the immune system, characterized by cytokine storms, apoptosis, and depletion of leukocytes may hinder the response to A. fumigatus infection. The combination of these factors may explain the onset of invasive aspergillosis in immunocompetent patients. Methods: We used a previously published computational model of the innate immune response to infection with Aspergillus fumigatus . Variation of model parameters was used to create a virtual patient population. A simulation study of this virtual patient population to test potential causes for co-infection in immunocompetent patients. Results: The two most important factors determining the likelihood of CAPA were the inherent virulence of the fungus and the effectiveness of the neutrophil population, as measured by granule half-life and ability to kill fungal cells. Varying these parameters across the virtual patient population generated a realistic distribution of CAPA phenotypes observed in the literature. Conclusions: Computational models are an effective tool for hypothesis generation. Varying model parameters can be used to create a virtual patient population for identifying candidate mechanisms for phenomena observed in actual patient populations.

3D Single-Breath Chemical Shift Imaging Hyperpolarized Xe-129 MRI of Healthy, CF, IPF, and COPD Subjects.

3D Single-breath Chemical Shift Imaging (3D-SBCSI) is a hybrid MR-spectroscopic imaging modality that uses hyperpolarized xenon-129 gas (Xe-129) to differentiate lung diseases by probing functional characteristics. This study tests the efficacy of 3D-SBCSI in differentiating physiology among pulmonary diseases. A total of 45 subjects-16 healthy, 11 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), 13 cystic fibrosis (CF), and 5 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-were given 1/3 forced vital capacity (FVC) of hyperpolarized Xe-129, inhaled for a ~7 s MRI acquisition. Proton, Xe-129 ventilation, and 3D-SBCSI images were acquired with separate breath-holds using a radiofrequency chest coil tuned to Xe-129. The Xe-129 spectrum was analyzed in each lung voxel for ratios of spectroscopic peaks, chemical shifts, and T2* relaxation. CF and COPD subjects had significantly more ventilation defects than IPF and healthy subjects, which correlated with FEV1 predicted (R = -0.74). FEV1 predicted correlated well with RBC/Gas ratio (R = 0.67). COPD and IPF had significantly higher Tissue/RBC ratios than other subjects, longer RBC T2* relaxation times, and greater RBC chemical shifts. CF subjects had more ventilation defects than healthy subjects, elevated Tissue/RBC ratio, shorter Tissue T2* relaxation, and greater RBC chemical shift. 3D-SBCSI may be helpful in the detection and characterization of pulmonary disease, following treatment efficacy, and predicting disease outcomes.

Correlation of alpha-1 antitrypsin levels and exosome associated neutrophil elastase endothelial injury in subjects with SARS-CoV2 infection.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a novel coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 18 million people worldwide. The activation of endothelial cells is a hallmark of signs of SARS-CoV-2 infection that includes altered integrity of vessel barrier and endothelial inflammation. OBJECTIVES: Pulmonary endothelial activation is suggested to be related to the profound neutrophil elastase (NE) activity, which is necessary for sterilization of phagocytosed bacterial pathogens. However, unopposed activity of NE increases alveolocapillary permeability and extracellular matrix degradation. The uncontrolled protease activity of NE during the inflammatory phase of lung diseases might be due to the resistance of exosome associated NE to inhibition by alpha-1 antitrypsin. METHOD: 31 subjects with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV2 infection were recruited in the disease group and samples from 30 voluntaries matched for age and sex were also collected for control. RESULTS: We measured the plasma levels of exosome-associated NE in SARS-CoV-2 patients which, were positively correlated with sign of endothelial damage in those patients as determined by plasma levels of LDH. Notably, we also found strong correlation with plasma levels of alpha-1 antitrypsin and exosome-associated NE in SARS-CoV-2 patients. Using macrovascular endothelial cells, we also observed that purified NE activity is inhibited by purified alpha-1 antitrypsin while, NE associated with exosomes are resistant to inhibition and show less sensitivity to alpha-1 antitrypsin inhibitory activity, in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point out the role of exosome-associated NE in exacerbation of endothelial injury in SARS-CoV-2 infection. We have demonstrated that exosome-associated NE could be served as a new potential therapeutic target of severe systemic manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Cigarette smoke exposed airway epithelial cell-derived EVs promote pro-inflammatory macrophage activation in alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a genetic disorder most commonly secondary to a single mutation in the SERPINA1 gene (PI*Z) that causes misfolding and accumulation of alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) in hepatocytes and mononuclear phagocytes which reduces plasma AAT and creates a toxic gain of function. This toxic gain of function promotes a pro-inflammatory phenotype in macrophages that contributes to lung inflammation and early-onset COPD, especially in individuals who smoke cigarettes. The aim of this study is to determine the role of cigarette exposed AATD macrophages and bronchial epithelial cells in AATD-mediated lung inflammation. METHODS: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from AATD and healthy individuals were differentiated into alveolar-like macrophages and exposed to air or cigarette smoke while in culture. Macrophage endoplasmic reticulum stress was quantified and secreted cytokines were measured using qPCR and cytokine ELISAs. To determine whether there is "cross talk" between epithelial cells and macrophages, macrophages were exposed to extracellular vesicles released by airway epithelial cells exposed to cigarette smoke and their inflammatory response was determined. RESULTS: AATD macrophages spontaneously produce several-fold more pro-inflammatory cytokines as compared to normal macrophages. AATD macrophages have an enhanced inflammatory response when exposed to cigarette smoke-induced extracellular vesicles (EVs) released from airway epithelial cells. Cigarette smoke-induced EVs induce expression of GM-CSF and IL-8 in AATD macrophages but have no effect on normal macrophages. Release of AAT polymers, potent neutrophil chemo attractants, were also increased from AATD macrophages after exposure to cigarette smoke-induced EVs. CONCLUSIONS: The expression of mutated AAT confers an inflammatory phenotype in AATD macrophages which disposes them to an exaggerated inflammatory response to cigarette smoke-induced EVs, and thus could contribute to progressive lung inflammation and damage in AATD individuals.

Computational Modeling of Macrophage Iron Sequestration during Host Defense against Aspergillus.

Iron is essential to the virulence of Aspergillus species, and restricting iron availability is a critical mechanism of antimicrobial host defense. Macrophages recruited to the site of infection are at the crux of this process, employing multiple intersecting mechanisms to orchestrate iron sequestration from pathogens. To gain an integrated understanding of how this is achieved in aspergillosis, we generated a transcriptomic time series of the response of human monocyte-derived macrophages to Aspergillus and used this and the available literature to construct a mechanistic computational model of iron handling of macrophages during this infection. We found an overwhelming macrophage response beginning 2 to 4 h after exposure to the fungus, which included upregulated transcription of iron import proteins transferrin receptor-1, divalent metal transporter-1, and ZIP family transporters, and downregulated transcription of the iron exporter ferroportin. The computational model, based on a discrete dynamical systems framework, consisted of 21 3-state nodes, and was validated with additional experimental data that were not used in model generation. The model accurately captures the steady state and the trajectories of most of the quantitatively measured nodes. In the experimental data, we surprisingly found that transferrin receptor-1 upregulation preceded the induction of inflammatory cytokines, a feature that deviated from model predictions. Model simulations suggested that direct induction of transferrin receptor-1 (TfR1) after fungal recognition, independent of the iron regulatory protein-labile iron pool (IRP-LIP) system, explains this finding. We anticipate that this model will contribute to a quantitative understanding of iron regulation as a fundamental host defense mechanism during aspergillosis. IMPORTANCE Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis is a major cause of death among immunosuppressed individuals despite the best available therapy. Depriving the pathogen of iron is an essential component of host defense in this infection, but the mechanisms by which the host achieves this are complex. To understand how recruited macrophages mediate iron deprivation during the infection, we developed and validated a mechanistic computational model that integrates the available information in the field. The insights provided by this approach can help in designing iron modulation therapies as anti-fungal treatments.

Quantitative Computed Tomography: What Clinical Questions Can it Answer in Chronic Lung Disease?

Quantitative computed tomography (QCT) has recently gained an important role in the functional assessment of chronic lung disease. Its capacity in diagnostic, staging, and prognostic evaluation in this setting is similar to that of traditional pulmonary function testing. Furthermore, it can demonstrate lung injury before the alteration of pulmonary function test parameters, and it enables the classification of disease phenotypes, contributing to the customization of therapy and performance of comparative studies without the intra- and inter-observer variation that occurs with qualitative analysis. In this review, we address technical issues with QCT analysis and demonstrate the ability of this modality to answer clinical questions encountered in daily practice in the management of patients with chronic lung disease.

Labile iron accumulation augments T follicular helper cell differentiation.

T follicular helper (Tfh) cells are a subset of CD4+ T cells that are essential in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Notably, iron is required for activated CD4+ T lymphocytes to sustain high proliferation and metabolism. In this issue of the JCI, Gao et al. showed that CD4+ T cells from patients with SLE accumulated iron, augmenting their differentiation into Tfh cells and correlating with disease activity. Using human cells and murine models, the authors demonstrated that miR-21 was overexpressed in lupus T cells and inhibited 3-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase-2 (BDH2). The subsequent loss of BDH2 drove labile iron to accumulate in the cytoplasm and promoted TET enzyme activity, BCL6 gene demethylation, and Tfh cell differentiation. This work identifies a role for iron in CD4+ T cell biology and the development of pathogenic effectors in SLE. We await future investigations that could determine whether modulating iron levels could regulate Tfh cells in human health and disease.

Microvascular Dysfunction as a Systemic Disease: A Review of the Evidence.

Microvascular dysfunction describes a varied set of conditions that includes vessel destruction, abnormal vasoreactivity, in situ thrombosis, and fibrosis, which ultimately results in tissue damage and progressive organ failure. Microvascular dysfunction has a wide array of clinical presentations, ranging from ischemic heart disease to renal failure, stroke, blindness, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and dementia. An intriguing unifying hypothesis suggests that microvascular dysfunction of specific organs is an expression of a systemic illness that worsens with age and is accelerated by vascular risk factors. Studying relationships across a spectrum of microvascular diseases affecting the brain, retina, kidney, lung, and heart may uncover shared pathologic mechanisms that could inform novel treatment strategies. We review the evidence that supports the notion that microvascular dysfunction represents a global pathologic process. Our focus is on studies reporting concomitant microvascular dysfunction of the heart with that of the brain, kidney, retina, and lung.

Multi-scale mechanistic modelling of the host defence in invasive aspergillosis reveals leucocyte activation and iron acquisition as drivers of infection outcome.

Aspergillus species are ubiquitous environmental moulds, with spores inhaled daily by most humans. Immunocompromised hosts can develop an invasive infection resulting in high mortality. There is, therefore, a pressing need for host-centric therapeutics for this infection. To address it, we created a multi-scale computational model of the infection, focused on its interaction with the innate immune system and iron, a critical nutrient for the pathogen. The model, parameterized using published data, was found to recapitulate a wide range of biological features and was experimentally validated in vivo. Conidial swelling was identified as critical in fungal strains with high growth, whereas the siderophore secretion rate seems to be an essential prerequisite for the establishment of the infection in low-growth strains. In immunocompetent hosts, high growth, high swelling probability and impaired leucocyte activation lead to a high conidial germination rate. Similarly, in neutropenic hosts, high fungal growth was achieved through synergy between high growth rate, high swelling probability, slow leucocyte activation and high siderophore secretion. In summary, the model reveals a small set of parameters related to fungal growth, iron acquisition and leucocyte activation as critical determinants of the fate of the infection.