CAD/CAM and conventional reconstruction of the mandibular condyle by fibula free flap: a clinical and radiological evaluation.

The aim of this study was to analyse the radiological and clinical outcomes of condylar reconstruction by fibula free flap (FFF), comparing conventional freehand and CAD/CAM techniques. Fifteen patients (nine CAD/CAM, six freehand) who underwent condylar reconstruction with a FFF were reviewed retrospectively regarding pre- and postoperative computed tomography/cone beam computed tomography scans and clinical function. After surgery, all patients were free of temporomandibular joint pain. Mean postoperative mouth opening was 30.80 mm, with no significant difference between the freehand and CAD/CAM groups. In all patients, laterotrusion was decreased to the contralateral side (P = 0.002), with no difference between freehand and CAD/CAM, while the axis of mouth opening deviated to the side of surgery (P < 0.001). All patients showed significant radiological deviation of the fibular neocondyle in the laterocaudal direction (lateral: P = 0.015; caudal: P = 0.001), independent of the technique. In conclusion, reconstruction of the mandibular condyle by FFF provided favourable functional results in terms of mouth opening, reduction of pain, and mandibular excursions. Radiological deviation of the neocondyle and deviation of laterotrusion and mouth opening did not impair clinical function. CAD/CAM planning facilitated surgery, decreased the surgery time, and improved the fit of the neocondyle in the fossa.

Practical behavioural solutions to COVID-19: Changing the role of behavioural science in crises.

For a very long time in the COVID-19 crisis, behavioural change leading to physical distancing behaviour was the only tool at our disposal to mitigate virus spread. In this large-scale naturalistic experimental study we show how we can use behavioural science to find ways to promote the desired physical distancing behaviour. During seven days in a supermarket we implemented different behavioural interventions: (i) rewarding customers for keeping distance; (i) providing signage to guide customers; and (iii) altering shopping cart regulations. We asked customers to wear a tag that measured distances to other tags using ultra-wide band at 1Hz. In total N = 4, 232 customers participated in the study. We compared the number of contacts (< 1.5 m, corresponding to Dutch regulations) between customers using state-of-the-art contact network analyses. We found that rewarding customers and providing signage increased physical distancing, whereas shopping cart regulations did not impact physical distancing. Rewarding customers moreover reduced the duration of remaining contacts between customers. These results demonstrate the feasibility to conduct large-scale behavioural experiments that can provide guidelines for policy. While the COVID-19 crisis unequivocally demonstrates the importance of behaviour and behavioural change, behaviour is integral to many crises, like the trading of mortgages in the financial crisis or the consuming of goods in the climate crisis. We argue that by acknowledging the role of behaviour in crises, and redefining this role in terms of the desired behaviour and necessary behavioural change, behavioural science can open up new solutions to crises and inform policy. We believe that we should start taking advantage of these opportunities.

Evaluation of Undiagnosed HIV Estimates Computed from the CD4 Depletion Model in a Rural, Medium-low HIV Prevalence State.

The CD4 depletion model estimates diagnosis delays by approximating infection date from CD4 T-cell count at diagnosis, and back-calculation can compute the proportion of undiagnosed PLWHA. The model assumes the immigration of PLWHA to the U.S. is negligible and counts as a transmission event, which may be impractical outside high prevalence states. Duration of U.S. residency among foreign-born PLWHA and diagnosis delays were compared. The impact on estimates of undiagnosed PLWHA was tested through simulation with different proportions of foreign-born people assumed to have acquired HIV abroad. In 67% of foreign-born people, the mean (SD) years of delay (9.9 (6.3)) exceeded the duration of U.S. residency (2.0 (1.9)). Additionally, inaccuracies in the estimates for proportions of undiagnosed PLWHA were pronounced when foreign-born people who acquired HIV abroad comprised 30% of diagnoses. The CD4 model inadvertently misclassified some diagnoses as in-state transmission events. Consequently, simulated results demonstrated inaccuracies and unstable calculations.

Use of local anesthesia for inguinal hernia repair has decreased over time in the VA system.

PURPOSE: In 2003, randomized trials demonstrated potentially improved outcomes when local instead of general anesthesia is used for inguinal hernia repair. Our study aimed to evaluate how the use of local anesthesia for this procedure changed over time following the publication of the trials' level 1 evidence. METHODS: We used the 1998-2018 Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to identify adults who underwent open, unilateral inguinal hernia repair under local or general anesthesia. Our primary outcome was the percentage of cases performed under local anesthesia. We used a time-series design to examine the trend and rate of change of the use of local anesthesia. RESULTS: We included 97,437 veterans, of which 22,333 (22.9%) had hernia surgery under local anesthesia. The median age of veterans receiving local anesthesia remained stable at 64-67 years over time. The use of local anesthesia decreased steadily, from 38.2% at the beginning year to 15.1% in the final year (P < 0.0001). The publication of results from randomized trials (in 2003) did not appear to increase the overall use or change the rate of decline in the use of local anesthesia. Overall, we found that the use of local anesthesia decreased by about 1.5% per year. CONCLUSION: The utilization of local anesthesia for inguinal hernia repair in the VA has steadily declined over the last 20 + years, despite data showing equivalence or superiority to general anesthesia. Future studies should explore barriers to the use of local anesthesia for hernia repair.

Promoting physical distancing during COVID-19: a systematic approach to compare behavioral interventions.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, physical distancing behavior turned out to be key to mitigating the virus spread. Therefore, it is crucial that we understand how we can successfully alter our behavior and promote physical distancing. We present a framework to systematically assess the effectiveness of behavioral interventions to stimulate physical distancing. In addition, we demonstrate the feasibility of this framework in a large-scale natural experiment (N = 639) conducted during an art fair. In an experimental design, we varied interventions to evaluate the effect of face masks, walking directions, and immediate feedback on visitors' contacts. We represent visitors as nodes, and their contacts as links in a contact network. Subsequently, we used network modelling to test for differences in these contact networks. We find no evidence that face masks influence physical distancing, while unidirectional walking directions and buzzer feedback do positively impact physical distancing. This study offers a feasible way to optimize physical distancing interventions through scientific research. As such, the presented framework provides society with the means to directly evaluate interventions, so that policy can be based on evidence rather than conjecture.

Smart Distance Lab's art fair, experimental data on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the absence of a vaccine, social distancing behaviour is pivotal to mitigate COVID-19 virus spread. In this large-scale behavioural experiment, we gathered data during Smart Distance Lab: The Art Fair (n = 839) between August 28 and 30, 2020 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. We varied walking directions (bidirectional, unidirectional, and no directions) and supplementary interventions (face mask and buzzer to alert visitors of 1.5 metres distance). We captured visitors' movements using cameras, registered their contacts (defined as within 1.5 metres) using wearable sensors, and assessed their attitudes toward COVID-19 as well as their experience during the event using questionnaires. We also registered environmental measures (e.g., humidity). In this paper, we describe this unprecedented, multi-modal experimental data set on social distancing, including psychological, behavioural, and environmental measures. The data set is available on figshare and in a MySQL database. It can be used to gain insight into (attitudes toward) behavioural interventions promoting social distancing, to calibrate pedestrian models, and to inform new studies on behavioural interventions.

Alternatives to free flap surgery for maxillofacial reconstruction: focus on the submental island flap and the pectoralis major myocutaneous flap.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular tissue transfer (MTT) has been established as the gold standard in oral- and maxillofacial reconstruction. However, free flap surgery may be critical in multimorbid elderly patients and after surgery or radiotherapy, which aggravate microsurgery. This study evaluates indications and outcome of the submental island flap (SMIF) and the pectoralis major myocutaneous flap (PMMF) as alternatives to the free radial forearm flap (RFF). METHODS: This retrospective study included 134 patients who had undergone resection and reconstruction with SMIF, PMMF, or RFF at our department between 2005 and 2020. The level of comorbidity was measured with the Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI). Primary outcome variables were flap success, complications, wound dehiscence, surgery duration, as well as time at the ICU and the ward (hospitalization). Chi-square tests, t-tests, and ANOVA were performed for statistics. RESULTS: 24 SMIFs, 52 RFFs, and 58 PMMFs were included in this study. The flap types did not significantly differ in terms of flap success, complications, and healing disorders. The SMIF presented a success rate of 95.8% and was significantly more often used in elderly patients (mean age = 70.2 years; p < 0.001) with increased comorbidities than the PMMF (p < 0.01) and RFF (p < 0.001). SMIF reconstruction reduced surgery duration (p < 0.001) and time at the ICU (p = 0.009) and the ward (p < 0.001) more than PMMF and RFF reconstructions. PMMF reconstruction was successful in 91.4% of patients and was more frequently used after head and neck surgery (p < 0.001) and radiotherapy (p < 0.001) than SMIF and RFF reconstructions. Patients undergoing PMMF reconstruction more frequently required segmental jaw resection and had presented with advanced tumor stages (both p < 0.001). Nicotine and alcohol abuse was more frequent in the RFF and PMMF groups (both p < 0.001) than in the SMIF group. CONCLUSIONS: The pedicled SMIF represents a valuable reconstructive option for elderly patients with increased comorbidity because of the shorter duration of surgery and hospitalization. On the other hand, the PMMF serves as a solid backup solution after head and neck surgery or radiotherapy. The rates of flap success, complications, and healing disorders of both pedicled flaps are comparable to those of free flap reconstruction.

Influence of the tensile static preload dependency on the dynamic lifetime prediction for an HNBR elastomer.

A correlated lifetime prediction concept for load cases without static preload, which argues with crack growth and particle size distribution from 3D computer tomography, has been shown by Ludwig et al. (2015). This method is extended to non-relaxing load cases i.e. with a static preload dependency. A force controlled dynamic fatigue test for a dumbbell specimen is performed to investigate the service life. In addition, a crack growth investigation is carried out using single edge notched tensile (SENT) specimens in displacement control mode to characterize the tearing energy and crack growth rate. The study with carbon black reinforced HNBR rubber shows a correlation between the Wöhler curve and the Paris-Erdogan plot. An extension of the empirical Paris-Erdogan equation considering static preload dependency allows the prediction of uniaxial lifetime statistics by means of particle size distribution. The calculated lifetime values are in reasonable concordance with the experimental findings.

Precision Constraints for Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillations from the Full MINOS+ and MINOS Dataset.

We report the final measurement of the neutrino oscillation parameters Δm_{32}^{2} and sin^{2}θ_{23} using all data from the MINOS and MINOS+ experiments. These data were collected using a total exposure of 23.76×10^{20} protons on target producing ν_{µ} and ν[over ¯]_{µ} beams and 60.75 kt yr exposure to atmospheric neutrinos. The measurement of the disappearance of ν_{µ} and the appearance of ν_{e} events between the Near and Far detectors yields |Δm_{32}^{2}|=2.40_{-0.09}^{+0.08}(2.45_{-0.08}^{+0.07})×10^{-3} eV^{2} and sin^{2}θ_{23}=0.43_{-0.04}^{+0.20}(0.42_{-0.03}^{+0.07}) at 68% C.L. for normal (inverted) hierarchy.

Magnetic resonance angiography for free fibula harvest: anatomy and perforator mapping.

The purpose of this study was to outline lower leg vessel anatomy and to investigate reliability and limitations of magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in patients proposed for microvascular fibula transplantation (free fibula flap (FFF)). We retrospectively investigated MRAs of 99 patients considered for FFF. Frontal MRA planes and maximal intensity projections (MIPs) were evaluated for fibula lengths, anatomical branching pattern, arterial stenoses and fibular perforator positions in both legs (n=198). Normal branching patterns were observed in 168 (85.3%) legs. Twenty-nine (14.7%) legs presented abnormal branching patterns. Once (0.5%) the anterior, 19 times (9.6%) the posterior tibial artery were absent or hypoplastic. Nine (4.6%) lower legs presented an arteria peronea magna. Average length of the tibiofibular trunk (TFT) was 3.3±0.15cm. A total of 492 perforators were found with an average of 2.5 (±0.82±0.99) perforators per leg. A mapping of perforator run-offs was illustrated true to scale. Lower limb stenoses were distributed in the anterior tibial artery (14.1%), in the posterior tibial artery (11.1%) and in the fibular artery (8.1%). Smoking (P=0.828), diabetes (P=0.727) and peripheral arterial occlusive disease (P=0.172) did not correlate with presence of stenoses. Preoperative lower limb angiography avoids postoperative complications. MRA reliably and non-invasively identifies anatomical variants and arterial stenoses without radiation. Illustration of perforator run-offs enhances incision planning for fibula harvest.

No evidence of tachyphylaxis for insulinotropic actions of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) in subjects with type 2 diabetes, their first-degree relatives, or in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND, AIMS: In patients with type 2 diabetes, the lost insulinotropic effect of the incretin hormone glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is more apparent after continuous versus bolus administration. To test whether the difference might be explained by rapid tachyphylaxis in response to elevated concentrations of GIP, and whether patients with type 2 diabetes and their relatives are more susceptible to tachyphylaxis than healthy subjects. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a two-way crossover design, insulinotropic responses to repeated bolus injection (50 pmol/kg body weight at 30 and 120 min) and continuous infusion of GIP (2 pmol.kg-1.min-1 from 30 to 180 min) under hyperglycaemic clamp conditions (8.5 mmol/l) was compared in age- gender- and weight-matched patients with type 2 diabetes, first degree relatives of such patients, and healthy subjects. RESULTS: Insulin secretory responses to the first and second GIP bolus were not significantly different in any of the subject groups. Subjects with type 2 diabetes had a significant relative impairment versus healthy subjects with continuous (C-peptide, -13.2 %, p < 0.05), but not with repeated bolus administration of GIP (+11.1 %, n.s.). First-degree relatives tended to hyper-secrete insulin with bolus or continuous administrations of GIP. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid tachyphylaxis in response to continuous exposure to slightly supraphysiological concentrations of GIP does not explain the reduced insulinotropic response to GIP infusions in patients with type 2 diabetes or their first-degree relatives.

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1).

BACKGROUND: The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is a multifaceted hormone with broad pharmacological potential. Among the numerous metabolic effects of GLP-1 are the glucose-dependent stimulation of insulin secretion, decrease of gastric emptying, inhibition of food intake, increase of natriuresis and diuresis, and modulation of rodent ß-cell proliferation. GLP-1 also has cardio- and neuroprotective effects, decreases inflammation and apoptosis, and has implications for learning and memory, reward behavior, and palatability. Biochemically modified for enhanced potency and sustained action, GLP-1 receptor agonists are successfully in clinical use for the treatment of type-2 diabetes, and several GLP-1-based pharmacotherapies are in clinical evaluation for the treatment of obesity. SCOPE OF REVIEW: In this review, we provide a detailed overview on the multifaceted nature of GLP-1 and its pharmacology and discuss its therapeutic implications on various diseases. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Since its discovery, GLP-1 has emerged as a pleiotropic hormone with a myriad of metabolic functions that go well beyond its classical identification as an incretin hormone. The numerous beneficial effects of GLP-1 render this hormone an interesting candidate for the development of pharmacotherapies to treat obesity, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders.

International point prevalence study of Intensive Care Unit transfusion practices-Pilot study in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia and coagulopathy are common issues in critically ill patients. Transfusion can be lifesaving, however, is associated with potential life threatening adverse events. As an international transfusion guideline for this specific patient population is lacking, we hypothesize that a high heterogeneity in transfusion practices exists. In this pilot-study we assessed transfusion practice in a university hospital in the Netherlands and tested the feasibility of this protocol for an international multi-centre study. METHODS: A prospective single centre cohort study was conducted. For seven days all consecutive non-readmitted patients to the adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) were included and followed for 28 days. Patients were prospectively followed until ICU discharge or up to day 28. Patient outcome data was collected at day 28. Workload for this study protocol was scored in hours and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 48 patients were included, needed in total three hours patient to include and collect all data, with 1.6% missing data showing the feasibility of the data acquisition. Six (12.5%) patients received red blood cells (RBCs), three patients (6.3%) received platelet concentrates, and two (4.2%) patients received plasma units. In total eight (16.7%) patients were transfused with one or more blood products. Median pre- and post-transfusion haemoglobin (Hb) levels were 7.6 (6.7-7.7) g/dL and 8.1 (7.6-8.7) g/dL, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this pilot-study we proved the feasibility of our protocol and observed in this small population a restrictive transfusion practice for all blood products.

Health-related quality of life: a retrospective study on local vs. microvascular reconstruction in patients with oral cancer.

BACKGROUND: New medicinal and surgical oncological treatment strategies not only improve overall survival rates but continually increase the importance of Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL). The purpose of this retrospective cross-sectional study was to analyze HRQOL of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma after ablative surgery and to evaluate predictive factors for HRQOL outcome. METHODS: The study included 88 patients with histologically confirmed oral squamous cell carcinoma of whom 42 had undergone local reconstruction (LR) and 46 microvascular reconstruction (MVR). During follow-up, all patients completed the University of Washington Quality of Life Questionnaire (UW-QOL) containing 12 targeted questions about the head and neck. Descriptive analyses were made for the tumor site, the T-stage, and adjuvant therapies. HRQOL was compared between the LR and the MVR group with parametric tests. Further analyses were impact of the tumor site, the T-status, and the time from surgery to survey on HRQOL. Statistics also included multivariate correlations and different interaction effects. RESULTS: HRQOL in the LR group was 'very good' with 84.3 ± 13.7 and 'good' in the MVR group with 73.3 ± 16.5 points. The physical domains swallowing (p = 0.00), chewing (p = 0.00), speech (p = 0.01), taste (p = 0.01), and pain (p = 0.04) were significantly worse in the MVR group. An increase in the T-status had a significant negative effect on swallowing (p = 0.01), chewing (p = 0.01), speech (p = 0.03), recreation (p = 0.05), and shoulder (p = 0.01) in both groups. Regarding the tumor site and subsequent loss of HRQOL, patients with squamous cell carcinoma on the floor of the mouth had significantly worse results in the categories pain (p = 0.002), speech (p = 0.002), swallowing (p = 0.03), activity (p = 0.02), and recreation (p = 0.01) than patients with tumors in the buccal mucosa. Speech (p = 0.03) and pain (p = 0.01) had improved 1 year after surgery. CONCLUSION: Patients with flap reconstruction because of oral squamous cell carcinoma showed very good overall HRQOL. Outcomes for microvascular reconstruction were good, even in the case of larger defects. The T-status is a predictor for HRQOL. Swallowing, chewing, speaking, taste, and pain were the most important issues in our cohort. Implementing HRQOL questionnaires for the assessment of quality of life could further increase the treatment quality of patients with oral cancer.

New evidence of broader diets for archaic Homo populations in the northwestern Mediterranean.

Investigating diet breadth is critical for understanding how archaic Homo populations, including Neanderthals, competed for seasonally scarce resources. The current consensus in Western Europe is that ungulates formed the bulk of the human diet during the Lower and Middle Paleolithic, while small fast prey taxa were virtually ignored. Here, we present a multisite taphonomic study of leporid assemblages from Southern France that supports frequent exploitation of small fast game during marine isotope stages 11 to 3. Along with recent evidence from Iberia, our results indicate that the consumption of small fast game was more common prior to the Upper Paleolithic than previously thought and that archaic hominins from the northwestern Mediterranean had broader diets than those from adjacent regions. Although likely of secondary importance relative to ungulates, the frequent exploitation of leporids documented here implies that human diet breadths were substantially more variable within Europe than assumed by current evolutionary models.

Shared decision making during surgical consultations: An observational study in pediatric otolaryngology.

AIMS: Shared decision-making (SDM) is a collaborative process in which patients and family members make healthcare decisions together with their clinician. The objective of this study was to explore how pediatric otolaryngologists involve parents in SDM and which factors influence this process. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Ninety-six children being assessed by pediatric otolaryngologists at a tertiary healthcare center for elective surgical procedures (adeno/tonsillectomy or tympanostomy tube insertion) were prospectively enrolled into the study. Surgical consultations were video-recorded and coded using the OPTION instrument to determine level of SDM. To provide a subjective measure of SDM, parents completed the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9) and surgeons completed the physician version of the questionnaire (SDM-Q-Doc). RESULTS: Total mean child and parents OPTION scores were 3.16 (SD: 5.43, range: 0-21) and 11.38 (SD: 6.41, range: 1-27) out of 48 respectively. Clinicians were more likely to involve female children in SDM as well as children who had a previous history of surgery. There were no other significant correlations between total OPTION scores and patient/family demographics. A positive correlation was found between length of consultation and total OPTION scores for parents, but not for children. SDM-Q-9 and SDM-Q-Doc scores were not correlated with total OPTION scores. CONCLUSION: Decision making during pediatric otolaryngology consultations mostly focused on treatment related decisions and sharing information as opposed to facilitating collaborative decision-making. Parent and physician perceptions of SDM were not correlated with actual observed behavior. Additional research is required to provide insight in how to increase surgeons' assistance towards SDM.

Nodes of Ranvier in Glaucoma.

Retinal ganglion cell axons of the DBA/2J mouse model of glaucoma, a model characterized by extensive neuroinflammation, preserve synaptic contacts with their subcortical targets for a time after onset of anterograde axonal transport deficits, axon terminal hypertrophy, and cytoskeletal alterations. Though retrograde axonal transport is still evident in these axons, it is unknown if they retain their ability to transmit visual information to the brain. Using a combination of in vivo multiunit electrophysiology, neuronal tract tracing, multichannel immunofluorescence, and transmission electron microscopy, we report that eye-brain signaling deficits precede transport loss and axonal degeneration in the DBA/2J retinal projection. These deficits are accompanied by node of Ranvier pathology - consisting of increased node length and redistribution of the voltage-gated sodium channel Nav1.6 that parallel changes seen early in multiple sclerosis (MS) axonopathy. Further, with age, axon caliber and neurofilament density increase without corresponding changes in myelin thickness. In contrast to these findings in DBA/2J mice, node pathologies were not observed in the induced microbead occlusion model of glaucoma - a model that lacks pre-existing inflammation. After one week of systemic treatment with fingolimod, an immunosuppressant therapy for relapsing-remitting MS, DBA/2J mice showed a substantial reduction in node pathology and mild effects on axon morphology. These data suggest that neurophysiological deficits in the DBA/2J may be due to defects in intact axons and targeting node pathology may be a promising intervention for some types of glaucoma.

Adaptive changes in pancreas post Roux-en-Y gastric bypass induced weight loss.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been shown to trigger adaptive increases in pancreas parenchymal and fat volume. Consecutively, pancreatic steatosis may lead to beta-cell dysfunction. However, it is not known whether the pancreatic tissue components decrease with weight loss and pancreatic steatosis is reversible following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). Therefore, the objective of the study was to investigate the effects of RYGB-induced weight loss on pancreatic volume and glucose homeostasis. METHODS: Eleven patients were recruited in the Obesity Centre of the University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf. Before and 6 months after RYGB, total GLP-1 levels were measured during oral glucose tolerance test. To assess changes in visceral adipose tissue and pancreatic volume, MRI was performed. Measures of glucose homeostasis and insulin indices were assessed. Fractional beta-cell area was estimated by correlation with the C-peptide-to-glucose ratio; beta-cell mass was calculated by the product of beta-cell area and pancreas parenchymal weight. RESULTS: Pancreas volume decreased from 83.8 (75.7-92.0) to 70.5 (58.8-82.3) cm3 (mean [95% CI], P = .001). The decrease in total volume was associated with a significant decrease in fat volume. Fasting insulin and C-peptide were lower post RYGB. HOMA-IR levels decreased, whereas insulin sensitivity increased (P = .03). This was consistent with a reduction in the estimated beta-cell area and mass. CONCLUSIONS: Following RYGB, pancreatic volume and steatosis adaptively decreased to "normal" levels with accompanying improvement in glucose homeostasis. Moreover, obesity-driven beta-cell expansion seems to be reversible; however, future studies must define a method to more accurately estimate functional beta-cell mass to increase our understanding of glucose homeostasis after RYGB.

Clinical Validation of a Predictive Model for the Presence of Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ultrasound is a standard technique to detect lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer. Cystic changes and microcalcifications are the most specific features of metastasis, but with low sensitivity. This prospective study compared the diagnostic accuracy of a predictive model for sonographic evaluation of lymph nodes relative to the radiologist's standard assessment in detecting papillary thyroid cancer metastasis in patients after thyroidectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cervical lymph node sonographic images were reported by a radiologist (R method) per standard practice. The same images were independently evaluated by another radiologist using a sonographic predictive model (M method). A test was considered positive for metastasis if the R or M method suggested lymph node biopsy. The result of lymph node biopsy or surgical pathology was used as the reference standard. We estimated relative true-positive fraction and relative false-positive fraction using log-linear models for correlated binary data for the M method compared with the R method. RESULTS: A total of 237 lymph nodes in 103 patients were evaluated. Our analysis of relative true-positive fraction and relative false-positive fraction included 54 nodes with pathologic results in which at least 1 method (R or M) was positive. The M method had a higher relative true-positive fraction of 1.46 (95% CI, 1.12-1.91; P = .006) and a lower relative false-positive fraction of 0.58 (95% CI, 0.36-0.92; P = .02) compared with the R method. CONCLUSIONS: The sonographic predictive model outperformed the standard assessment to detect lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid cancer and may reduce unnecessary biopsies.