Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates.

Extreme weather events threaten food security, yet global assessments of impacts caused by crop waterlogging are rare. Here we first develop a paradigm that distils common stress patterns across environments, genotypes and climate horizons. Second, we embed improved process-based understanding into a farming systems model to discern changes in global crop waterlogging under future climates. Third, we develop avenues for adapting cropping systems to waterlogging contextualised by environment. We find that yield penalties caused by waterlogging increase from 3-11% historically to 10-20% by 2080, with penalties reflecting a trade-off between the duration of waterlogging and the timing of waterlogging relative to crop stage. We document greater potential for waterlogging-tolerant genotypes in environments with longer temperate growing seasons (e.g., UK, France, Russia, China), compared with environments with higher annualised ratios of evapotranspiration to precipitation (e.g., Australia). Under future climates, altering sowing time and adoption of waterlogging-tolerant genotypes reduces yield penalties by 18%, while earlier sowing of winter genotypes alleviates waterlogging by 8%. We highlight the serendipitous outcome wherein waterlogging stress patterns under present conditions are likely to be similar to those in the future, suggesting that adaptations for future climates could be designed using stress patterns realised today.

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops.

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.

Crop traits enabling yield gains under more frequent extreme climatic events.

Climate change (CC) in central China will change seasonal patterns of agricultural production through increasingly frequent extreme climatic events (ECEs). Breeding climate-resilient wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes may mitigate adverse effects of ECEs on crop productivity. To reveal crop traits conducive to long-term yield improvement in the target population of environments, we created 8,192 virtual genotypes with contrasting but realistic ranges of phenology, productivity and waterlogging tolerance. Using these virtual genotypes, we conducted a genotype (G) by environment (E) by management (M) factorial analysis (G×E×M) using locations distributed across the entire cereal cropping zone in mid-China. The G×E×M invoked locally-specific sowing dates under future climates that were premised on shared socioeconomic pathways SSP5-8.5, with a time horizon centred on 2080. Across the simulated adaptation landscape, productivity was primarily driven by yield components and phenology (average grain yield increase of 6-69% across sites with optimal combinations of these traits). When incident solar radiation was not limiting carbon assimilation, ideotypes with higher grain yields were characterised by earlier flowering, higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size. At sites with limited solar radiation, crops required longer growing periods to realise genetic yield potential, although higher radiation-use efficiency and larger maximum kernel size were again prospective traits enabling higher rates of yield gains. By 2080, extreme waterlogging stress in some regions of mid-China will impact substantially on productivity, with yield penalties of up to 1,010 kg ha-1. Ideotypes with optimal G×M could mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 15% under future climates. These results help distil promising crop trait by best management practice combinations that enable higher yields and robust adaptation to future climates and more frequent extreme climatic events, including flash flooding and soil waterlogging.

Effects of soil- and climate data aggregation on simulated potato yield and irrigation water requirement.

Input data aggregation affects crop model estimates at the regional level. Previous studies have focused on the impact of aggregating climate data used to compute crop yields. However, little is known about the combined data aggregation effect of climate (DAEc) and soil (DAEs) on irrigation water requirement (IWR) in cool-temperate and spatially heterogeneous environments. The aims of this study were to quantify DAEc and DAEs of model input data and their combined impacts for simulated irrigated and rainfed yield and IWR. The Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator Next Generation model was applied for the period 1998-2017 across areas suitable for potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Tasmania, Australia, using data at 5, 15, 25 and 40 km resolution. Spatial variances of inputs and outputs were evaluated by the relative absolute difference (rAD¯) between the aggregated grids and the 5 km grids. Climate data aggregation resulted in a rAD¯ of 0.7-12.1%, with high values especially for areas with pronounced differences in elevation. The rAD¯ of soil data was higher (5.6-26.3%) than rAD¯ of climate data and was mainly affected by aggregation of organic carbon and maximum plant available water capacity (i.e. the difference between field capacity and wilting point in the effective root zone). For yield estimates, the difference among resolutions (5 km vs. 40 km) was more pronounced for rainfed (rAD¯ = 14.5%) than irrigated conditions (rAD¯ = 3.0%). The rAD¯ of IWR was 15.7% when using input data at 40 km resolution. Therefore, reliable simulations of rainfed yield require a higher spatial resolution than simulation of irrigated yields. This needs to be considered when conducting regional modelling studies across Tasmania. This study also highlights the need to separately quantify the impact of input data aggregation on model outputs to inform about data aggregation errors and identify those variables that explain these errors.

Genome wide association study reveals novel QTL for barley yellow dwarf virus resistance in wheat.

BACKGROUND: Barley yellow dwarf (BYD) is an important virus disease that causes significant reductions in wheat yield. For effective control of Barley yellow dwarf virus through breeding, the identification of genetic sources of resistance is key to success. In this study, 335 geographically diverse wheat accessions genotyped using an Illumina iSelect 90 K single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) bead chip array were used to identify new sources of resistance to BYD in different environments. RESULTS: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) performed using all the generalised and mixed linkage models (GLM and MLM, respectively) identified a total of 36 significant marker-trait associations, four of which were consistently detected in the K model. These four novel quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified on chromosomes 2A, 2B, 6A and 7A and associated with markers IWA3520, IWB24938, WB69770 and IWB57703, respectively. These four QTL showed an additive effect with the average visual symptom score of the lines containing resistance alleles of all four QTL being much lower than those with less favorable alleles. Several Chinese landraces, such as H-205 (Baimazha) and H-014 (Dahongmai) which have all four favorable alleles, showed consistently higher resistance in different field trials. None of them contained the previously described Bdv2, Bdv3 or Bdv4 genes for BYD resistance. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified multiple novel QTL for BYD resistance and some resistant wheat genotypes. These will be useful for breeders to generate combinations with and/or without Bdv2 to achieve higher levels and more stable BYD resistance.

Tissue-Specific Regulation of Na+ and K+ Transporters Explains Genotypic Differences in Salinity Stress Tolerance in Rice.

Rice (Oryza sativa) is a staple food that feeds more than half the world population. As rice is highly sensitive to soil salinity, current trends in soil salinization threaten global food security. To better understand the mechanistic basis of salinity tolerance in rice, three contrasting rice cultivars-Reiziq (tolerant), Doongara (moderately tolerant), and Koshihikari (sensitive)-were examined and the differences in operation of key ion transporters mediating ionic homeostasis in these genotypes were evaluated. Tolerant varieties had reduced Na+ translocation from roots to shoots. Electrophysiological and quantitative reverse transcription PCR experiments showed that tolerant genotypes possessed 2-fold higher net Na+ efflux capacity in the root elongation zone. Interestingly, this efflux was only partially mediated by the plasma membrane Na+/H+ antiporter (OsSOS1), suggesting involvement of some other exclusion mechanisms. No significant difference in Na+ exclusion from the mature root zones was found between cultivars, and the transcriptional changes in the salt overly sensitive signaling pathway genes in the elongation zone were not correlated with the genetic variability in salinity tolerance amongst genotypes. The most important hallmark of differential salinity tolerance was in the ability of the plant to retain K+ in both root zones. This trait was conferred by at least three complementary mechanisms: (1) its superior ability to activate H+-ATPase pump operation, both at transcriptional and functional levels; (2) reduced sensitivity of K+ efflux channels to reactive oxygen species; and (3) smaller upregulation in OsGORK and higher upregulation of OsAKT1 in tolerant cultivars in response to salt stress. These traits should be targeted in breeding programs aimed to improve salinity tolerance in commercial rice cultivars.

Microhair on the adaxial leaf surface of salt secreting halophytic Oryza coarctata Roxb. show distinct morphotypes: Isolation for molecular and functional analysis.

Halophytic Oryza coarctata is a good model system to examine mechanisms of salinity tolerance in rice. O. coarctata leaves show the presence of microhairs in adaxial leaf surface furrows that secrete salt under salinity. However, detailed molecular and physiological studies of O. coarctata microhairs are limited due to their relative inaccessibility. This work presents a detailed characterization of O. coarctata leaf features. O. coarctata has two types of microhairs on the adaxial leaf surface: longer microhairs (three morphotypes) lining epidermal furrow walls and shorter microhairs (reported first time) arising from bulliform cells. Microhair morphotypes include (i) finger-like, tubular structures, (ii) tubular hairs with bilobed and flattened heads and (iii) bi-or trifurcated hairs. The unicellular nature of microhairs was confirmed by propidium iodide (PI) staining. An efficient method for the isolation and enrichment of O. coarctata microhairs is presented (yield averaging ˜2 × 105/g leaf tissue). The robustness of the microhair isolation procedure was confirmed by subsequent viability staining (PI), total RNA isolation and RT-PCR amplification of O. coarctata trichome-specific WUSCHEL-related homeobox 3B (OcWox3B) and transporter gene-specific cDNA sequences. The present microhair isolation work from O. coarctata paves the way for examining genes involved in ion secretion in this halophytic wild rice model.

A regulator of early flowering in barley (Hordeum vulgare L.).

Heading date (HD) of cereals is an important trait for adaptation to diverse environments and is critical for determining yield and quality and the number of genes and gene combinations that confer earliness in barley under short days is limited. In our study, a QTL for early flowering was identified from the cross between an Australian malting barley cultivar and a Chinese landrace. Four sets of near isogenic lines (NILs) were developed with a QTL located on chromosome 5H at the interval of 122.0-129.0 cM. Further experiments were conducted to investigate how this gene was regulated by photoperiod using the NILs with three sowing dates from autumn to summer. The NILs carrying the earliness allele were significantly earlier than the late genotype at all sowing dates. This gene was different from previously reported vernalisation genes that are located at a similar position as no vernalisation was required for all the NILs. The difference between this gene and Eam5 (HvPHYC) locus which also located between two co-segregated markers (3398516S5, 122.5 cM, and 4014046D5, 126.1 cM), is that with the existence of Ppd-H1 (Eam1), Eam5 has no effect on ear emergence under long days while the gene from TX9425 still reduced the time to ear emergency. The locus showed no pleiotropic effects on grain pasting properties and agronomic traits except for spike length and number of spikelets per spike, and thus can be effectively used in breeding programs. The array of early heading dates caused by interactions of Eam5 gene with other maturity genes provides an opportunity to better fine tune heading dates with production environments, which can be critical factor in barley breeding.

Agronomical, biochemical and histological response of resistant and susceptible wheat and barley under BYDV stress.

Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV (BYDV-PAV) is one of the major viruses causing a widespread and serious viral disease affecting cereal crops. To gain a better understanding of plant defence mechanisms of BYDV resistance genes (Bdv2 and RYd2) against BYDV-PAV infection, the differences in agronomical, biochemical and histological changes between susceptible and resistant wheat and barley cultivars were investigated. We found that root growth and total dry matter of susceptible cultivars showed greater reduction than that of resistant ones after infection. BYDV infected leaves in susceptible wheat and barley cultivars showed a significant reduction in photosynthetic pigments, an increase in the concentration of reducing sugar. The protein levels were also low in infected leaves. There was a significant increase in total phenol contents in resistant cultivars, which might reflect a protective mechanism of plants against virus infection. In phloem tissue, sieve elements (SE) and companion cells (CC) were severely damaged in susceptible cultivars after infection. It is suggested that restriction of viral movement in the phloem tissue and increased production of phenolic compounds may play a role in the resistance and defensive mechanisms of both Bdv2 and RYd2 against virus infection.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? METHODS: The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. RESULTS: Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. CONCLUSIONS: Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.