Uncovering physical activity trade-offs in transportation policy: A spatial agent-based model of Bogotá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Transportation policies can impact health outcomes while simultaneously promoting social equity and environmental sustainability. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the impacts of fare subsidies and congestion taxes on commuter decision-making and travel patterns. We report effects on mode share, travel time and transport-related physical activity (PA), including the variability of effects by socioeconomic strata (SES), and the trade-offs that may need to be considered in the implementation of these policies in a context with high levels of necessity-based physical activity. METHODS: The ABM design was informed by local stakeholder engagement. The demographic and spatial characteristics of the in-silico city, and its residents, were informed by local surveys and empirical studies. We used ridership and travel time data from the 2019 Bogotá Household Travel Survey to calibrate and validate the model by SES. We then explored the impacts of fare subsidy and congestion tax policy scenarios. RESULTS: Our model reproduced commuting patterns observed in Bogotá, including substantial necessity-based walking for transportation. At the city-level, congestion taxes fractionally reduced car use, including among mid-to-high SES groups but not among low SES commuters. Neither travel times nor physical activity levels were impacted at the city level or by SES. Comparatively, fare subsidies promoted city-level public transportation (PT) ridership, particularly under a 'free-fare' scenario, largely through reductions in walking trips. 'Free fare' policies also led to a large reduction in very long walking times and an overall reduction in the commuting-based attainment of physical activity guidelines. Differential effects were observed by SES, with free fares promoting PT ridership primarily among low-and-middle SES groups. These shifts to PT reduced median walking times among all SES groups, particularly low-SES groups. Moreover, the proportion of low-to-mid SES commuters meeting weekly physical activity recommendations decreased under the 'freefare' policy, with no change observed among high-SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: Transport policies can differentially impact SES-level disparities in necessity-based walking and travel times. Understanding these impacts is critical in shaping transportation policies that balance the dual aims of reducing SES-level disparities in travel time (and time poverty) and the promotion of choice-based physical activity.

Understanding the dynamics of the obesity transition associated with physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, and consumption of ultra-processed foods in Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We investigate the obesity transition at the country- and regional-levels, by age, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES) and its relationship to three health behavior attributes, including physical activity (PA), sedentary activities (ST), and consumption of ultra-processed foods (CUPF) within the urban population of Colombia, from 20,010 to 2050. METHODS: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender, and SES. This model also uses a conservative co-flow structure for three health-related behaviors (PA, ST, and CUPF). RESULTS: At the national level, our results indicate that the burden of obesity is shifting towards populations with lower SES as the gross domestic product (GDP) increases, particularly women aged 20-59 years with lower SES. Among this group of women, the highest burden of obesity is among those who do not meet the PA, ST and CUPF recommendations. At the regional level, our findings suggest that the regions are at different stages in the obesity transition. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of obesity is shifting towards women with lower SES as GDP increases at the national level and across several regions. This obesity transition is paralleled by a high prevalence of women from low SES groups who do not meet the minimum recommendations for PA, CUPF, and ST. Our findings can be used by decision-makers to inform age- and SES- specific policies seeking to tackle the obesity.

Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis.

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future 'scenarios' of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as 'storylines', provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America.

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants' perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, 'healthy' scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of 'healthy' scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Effects of a Physical Activity Program Potentiated with ICTs on the Formation and Dissolution of Friendship Networks of Children in a Middle-Income Country.

This paper assesses the potential cohesion effect of a physical activity (PA) school-based intervention potentiated using text messages (SMS) through analyzing longitudinally the friendship network structure and the mechanisms of the formation and dissolution of friendships. Three schools (n = 125 participants) in Bogotá, Colombia, were randomly assigned into three groups: Modulo Activo Recreo Activo (MARA) + SMS (networks 1 and 2), MARA (networks 3 and 4), and control (no intervention: networks 5-7). We collected socio-economic, health-related, network structure, and intervention satisfaction variables in the baseline and after 10 weeks on July-November 2013. For each classroom network, we conducted four models using a temporal and static network approach to assess (1) temporal social network changes, (2) friendship homophily, (3) friendship formation and dissolution mechanisms, and (4) effect of SMS on the networks' cohesion. We found that (1) social cohesion emerged in the four intervened networks that were measured over time with transitivity and homophily driven by clustering, (2) the intervention affected the mechanisms of friendship formation and dissolution, and (3) MARA + SMS on average created more social cohesion and 3.8 more friendships than the program alone. Potentially, school-based interventions with information and communication technologies (ICT) such as MARA + SMS could encourage social cohesion among children. The particular characteristics of each school network need to be considered when developing school-based interventions.

Active School Transport among Children from Canada, Colombia, Finland, South Africa, and the United States: A Tale of Two Journeys.

Walking and biking to school represent a source of regular daily physical activity (PA). The objectives of this paper are to determine the associations of distance to school, crime safety, and socioeconomic variables with active school transport (AST) among children from five culturally and socioeconomically different country sites and to describe the main policies related to AST in those country sites. The analytical sample included 2845 children aged 9-11 years from the International Study of Childhood Obesity, Lifestyle and the Environment. Multilevel generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the associations between distance, safety and socioeconomic variables, and the odds of engaging in AST. Greater distance to school and vehicle ownership were associated with a lower likelihood of engaging in AST in sites in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Crime perception was negatively associated to AST only in sites in high-income countries. Our results suggest that distance to school is a consistent correlate of AST in different contexts. Our findings regarding crime perception support a need vs. choice framework, indicating that AST may be the only commuting choice for many children from the study sites in upper-middle-income countries, despite the high perception of crime.

Using a system dynamics model to study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status in Colombia at the country, regional and department levels.

OBJECTIVE: We study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status (SES), gender and age within the Colombian urban population at the country, regional and department levels. DESIGN: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from the 2005 and 2010 ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender and SES at the country, regional and department levels from 2005 to 2030. PARTICIPANTS: The sample size of the 2005 ENSIN comprised 8515 children younger than 5 years, 32 009 children and adolescents aged 5-17 years and 48 056 adults aged 18-64 years. In 2010, the corresponding numbers were 11 368, 32 524 and 64 425, respectively. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The obesity prevalence ratio and prevalence rates for each BMI category. RESULTS: The results show, at the country level, transitions from overweight to obesity were projected to increase sharply among lower SES adults, particularly among women, suggesting that these groups will undergo an obesity transition by 2030. The model projections also indicate that the regions of Colombia are in different stages of the obesity transition. In the case of women, five out of the six regions were expected to undergo an obesity transition by SES over time. For men, only one region was expected to undergo an obesity transition. However, at the department level, trends in the burden of obesity varied. CONCLUSIONS: We evidence that the Colombian population could be experiencing an obesity transition where the increase in the GDP could be related to shifts in the burden of obesity from higher to lower SES, especially in women. These patterns support the need for policy planning that considers SES and gender, at the national and subnational levels, as important determinants of overweight and obesity among adults in Colombia.

A systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions.

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.

Benchmarking seeding strategies for spreading processes in social networks: an interplay between influencers, topologies and sizes.

The explosion of network science has permitted an understanding of how the structure of social networks affects the dynamics of social contagion. In community-based interventions with spill-over effects, identifying influential spreaders may be harnessed to increase the spreading efficiency of social contagion, in terms of time needed to spread all the largest connected component of the network. Several strategies have been proved to be efficient using only data and simulation-based models in specific network topologies without a consensus of an overall result. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to benchmark the spreading efficiency of seeding strategies related to network structural properties and sizes. We simulate spreading processes on empirical and simulated social networks within a wide range of densities, clustering coefficients, and sizes. We also propose three new decentralized seeding strategies that are structurally different from well-known strategies: community hubs, ambassadors, and random hubs. We observe that the efficiency ranking of strategies varies with the network structure. In general, for sparse networks with community structure, decentralized influencers are suitable for increasing the spreading efficiency. By contrast, when the networks are denser, centralized influencers outperform. These results provide a framework for selecting efficient strategies according to different contexts in which social networks emerge.

Urban Transformations and Health: Methods for TrUST-a Natural Experiment Evaluating the Impacts of a Mass Transit Cable Car in Bogotá, Colombia.

Background: Cable cars provide urban mobility benefits for vulnerable populations. However, no evaluation has assessed cable cars' impact from a health perspective. TransMiCable in Bogotá, Colombia, provides a unique opportunity to (1) assess the effects of its implementation on the environmental and social determinants of health (microenvironment pollution, transport accessibility, physical environment, employment, social capital, and leisure time), physical activity, and health outcomes (health-related quality of life, respiratory diseases, and homicides); and (2) use citizen science methods to identify, prioritize, and communicate the most salient negative and positive features impacting health and quality of life in TransMiCable's area, as well as facilitate a consensus and advocacy-building change process among community members, policymakers, and academic researchers. Methods: TrUST (In Spanish: Transformaciones Urbanas y Salud: el caso de TransMiCable en Bogotá) is a quasi-experimental study using a mixed-methods approach. The intervention group includes adults from Ciudad Bolívar, the area of influence of TransMiCable. The control group includes adults from San Cristóbal, an area of future expansion for TransMiCable. A conceptual framework was developed through group-model building. Outcomes related to environmental and social determinants of health as well as health outcomes are assessed using questionnaires (health outcomes, physical activity, and perceptions), secondary data (crime and respiratory outcomes) use of portable devices (air pollution exposure and accelerometry), mobility tracking apps (for transport trajectories), and direct observation (parks). The Stanford Healthy Neighborhood Discovery Tool is being used to capture residents' perceptions of their physical and social environments as part of the citizen science component of the investigation. Discussion: TrUST is innovative in its use of a mixed-methods, and interdisciplinary research approach, and in its systematic engagement of citizens and policymakers throughout the design and evaluation process. This study will help to understand better how to maximize health benefits and minimize unintended negative consequences of TransMiCable.

Using community-based system dynamics modeling to understand the complex systems that influence health in cities: The SALURBAL study.

We discuss the design, implementation, and results of a collaborative process designed to elucidate the complex systems that drive food behaviors, transport, and health in Latin American cities and to build capacity for systems thinking and community-based system dynamics (CBSD) methods among diverse research team members and stakeholders. During three CBSD workshops, 62 stakeholders from 10 Latin American countries identified 98 variables and a series of feedback loops that shape food behaviors, transportation and health, along with 52 policy levers. Our findings suggest that CBSD can engage local stakeholders, help them view problems through the lens of complex systems and use their insights to prioritize research efforts and identify novel solutions that consider mechanisms of complexity.

Complex Systems Approaches to Diet: A Systematic Review.

CONTEXT: Complex systems approaches can help to elucidate mechanisms that shape population-level patterns in diet and inform policy approaches. This study reports results of a structured review of key design elements and methods used by existing complex systems models of diet. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The authors conducted systematic searches of the PubMed, Web of Science, and LILACS databases between May and September 2018 to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts that used agent-based models or system dynamics models to explore diet. Searches occurred between November 2017 and May 2018. The authors extracted relevant data regarding each study's diet and nutrition outcomes; use of data for parameterization, calibration, and validation; results; and generated insights. The literature search adhered to PRISMA guidelines. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Twenty-two agent-based model studies and five system dynamics model studies met the inclusion criteria. Mechanistic studies explored neighborhood- (e.g., residential segregation), interpersonal- (e.g., social influence) and individual-level (e.g., heuristics that guide food purchasing decisions) mechanisms that influence diet. Policy-oriented studies examined policies related to food pricing, the food environment, advertising, nutrition labels, and social norms. Most studies used empirical data to inform values of key parameters; studies varied in their approaches to calibration and validation. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunities remain to advance the state of the science of complex systems approaches to diet and nutrition. These include using models to better understand mechanisms driving population-level diet, increasing use of models for policy decision support, and leveraging the wide availability of epidemiologic and policy evaluation data to improve model validation.

Active streets for children: The case of the Bogotá Ciclovía.

INTRODUCTION: The Ciclovía is a worldwide program in which streets are temporarily closed to motorized transport to create a space for recreation and outdoor play among children and adults. The aim of this study was to assess the associations between physical activity (PA), sedentary time (SED), body mass index and Ciclovía participation among children aged 9 to 13 years. METHODS: All students in the 4th and 5th grades from the selected schools were invited to participate in the study. The study included 923 children. PA and SED were measured using waist-worn accelerometers, and height and weight were measured using standardized procedures. Ciclovía participation was self-reported. The analyses included multilevel linear, generalized mixed and generalized additive models. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 10.1±0.7 years, and 49.5% were boys. In the last year, 46% of the children participated in the Ciclovía, and 34% reported participating frequently (at least once per month). No differences were found in the mean minutes of moderate-to-vigorous PA on weekdays between frequent Ciclovía users and sporadic and non-Ciclovía users (72 vs 69; p = 0.09). In contrast, frequent Ciclovía users had higher moderate-to-vigorous PA on Sundays than sporadic and non-Ciclovía users (65.6 vs 59.2; p = 0.01), specifically between the hours of 12:00 and 16:00. In addition, frequent Ciclovía users did not differ from the sporadic and non-Ciclovía users in SED (515.3 vs 521.3; p = 0.19). Frequent Ciclovía users had lower SED on Sundays than the sporadic and non-Ciclovía users (437.7 vs 456.5; p = 0.005). Additionally, frequent Ciclovía users were more likely to be overweight (28.3% vs 20.4% p = 0.01). We did not find differences in participation by sex, and low-to-middle income children were more likely to participate. CONCLUSIONS: The Ciclovías offer an innovative, inclusive recreational space and consequently provide opportunities to increase moderate-to-vigorous PA and reduce SED among children.

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

Using agent based modeling to assess the effect of increased Bus Rapid Transit system infrastructure on walking for transportation.

The effect of transport infrastructure on walking is of interest to researchers because it provides an opportunity, from the public policy point of view, to increase physical activity (PA). We use an agent based model (ABM) to examine the effect of transport infrastructure on walking. Particular relevance is given to assess the effect of the growth of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bogotá on walking. In the ABM agents are assigned a home, work location, and socioeconomic status (SES) based on which they are assigned income for transportation. Individuals must decide between the available modes of transport (i.e., car, taxi, bus, BRT, and walking) as the means of reaching their destination, based on resources and needed travel time. We calibrated the model based on Bogota's 2011 mobility survey. The ABM results are consistent with previous empirical findings, increasing BRT access does indeed increase the number of minutes that individuals walk for transportation, although this effect also depends on the availability of other transport modes. The model indicates a saturation process: as more BRT lanes are added, the increment in minutes walking becomes smaller, and eventually the walking time decreases. Our findings on the potential contribution of the expansion of the BRT system to walking for transportation suggest that ABMs may prove helpful in designing policies to continue promoting walking.

TransMilenio, a Scalable Bus Rapid Transit System for Promoting Physical Activity.

Transport systems can play an important role in increasing physical activity (PA). Bogotá has been recognized for its bus rapid transit (BRT) system, TransMilenio (TM). To date, BRTs have been implemented in over 160 cities worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the association between PA and the use of TM among adults in Bogotá. The study consists of a cross-sectional study conducted from 2010 to 2011 with 1000 adults. PA was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. In a subsample of 250 adults, PA was objectively measured using ActiGraph accelerometers. Analyses were conducted using multilevel logistic regression models. The use of TM was associated with meeting moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). TM users were more likely to complete an average of >22 min a day of MVPA (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1, confidence interval [CI] = 95 % 1.4-7.1) and to walk for transportation for ≥150 min per week (OR = 1.5; CI = 95 % 1.1-2.0). The use of TM was associated with 12 or more minutes of MVPA (95 % CI 4.5-19.4, p < 0.0001). Associations between meeting PA recommendations and use of TM did not differ by socioeconomic status (p value = 0.106) or sex (p value = 0.288). The use of TM is a promising strategy for enhancing public health efforts to reduce physical inactivity through walking for transport. Given the expansion of BRTs, these results could inform the development of transport PA programs in low- to high-income countries.

Network analysis of Bogotá's Ciclovía Recreativa, a self-organized multisectorial community program to promote physical activity in a middle-income country.

PURPOSE: Conduct a social network analysis of the health and non-health related organizations that participate in Bogotá's Ciclovía Recreativa (Ciclovía). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Ciclovía is a multisectoral community-based mass program in which streets are temporarily closed to motorized transport, allowing exclusive access to individuals for leisure activities and physical activity. SUBJECTS: Twenty-five organizations that participate in the Ciclovía. MEASURES: Seven variables were examined by using network analytic methods: relationship, link attributes (integration, contact, and importance), and node attributes (leadership, years in the program, and the sector of the organization). ANALYSIS: The network analytic methods were based on a visual descriptive analysis and an exponential random graph model. RESULTS: Analysis shows that the most central organizations in the network were outside of the Health sector and include Sports and Recreation, Government, and Security sectors. The organizations work in clusters formed by organizations of different sectors. Organization importance and structural predictors were positively related to integration, while the number of years working with Ciclovía was negatively associated with integration. CONCLUSION: Ciclovía is a network whose structure emerged as a self-organized complex system. Ciclovía of Bogotá is an example of a program with public health potential formed by organizations of multiple sectors with Sports and Recreation as the most central.