Sources of polychlorinated biphenyls to Upper Hudson River fish post-dredging.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic chemicals that are the dominant contaminant in the Upper Hudson River (UHR) in New York State where two General Electric (GE) plants historically discharged PCBs to the river. Portions of the UHR were dredged from 2009 to 2015 to address PCB contamination. In 2017, the first post-dredging survey of yearling feeder fish and sediment PCB contamination was conducted to establish a baseline for the recovery of the river. Prior analysis of the sediment data from the 2017 survey indicated that ∼2% of the PCBs in the surface sediment were higher in molecular weight than the formulation used by GE and therefore arose from non-GE sources. In this work, the fish PCB data from the 2017 survey were analyzed using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) was used to estimate PCB concentrations in the sediment at the locations where fish were collected. The results suggest that PCBs that are the products of microbial dechlorination bioaccumulate in the fish and represent 7% of the PCB mass in the fish data set. Further, the results suggest that about 13% of the PCBs in the fish may have come from non-GE sources. This is higher than the percentage of non-GE PCBs in the sediment, but can be explained by the higher molecular weight of the non-GE mixture which causes it to bioaccumulate more effectively than GE PCBs. Concentrations of the non-GE PCBs averaged about 240 ppb wet weight (whole body) in yearling feeder fish. The remedial goals range from 50 to 400 ppb ww in fillet for fish including piscivorous species that are likely to have higher PCB concentrations than feeder fish.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection.

How topography induces reproductive asynchrony and alters gypsy moth invasion dynamics.

Reproductive asynchrony, a temporal mismatch in reproductive maturation between an individual and potential mates, may contribute to mate-finding failure and Allee effects that influence the establishment and spread of invasive species. Variation in elevation is likely to promote variability in maturation times for species with temperature-dependent development, but it is not known how strongly this influences reproductive asynchrony or the population growth of invasive species. We examined whether spatial variation in reproductive asynchrony, due to differences in elevation and local heterogeneity in elevation (hilliness), can explain spatial heterogeneity in the population growth rate of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), along its invasion front in Virginia and West Virginia, USA. We used a spatially explicit model of the effects of reproductive asynchrony on mating success to develop predictions of the influences of elevation and elevational heterogeneity on local population growth rates. Population growth rates declined with increased elevation and more modestly with increased elevational heterogeneity. As in earlier work, we found a positive relationship between the population growth rate and the number of introduced egg masses, indicating a demographic Allee effect. At high elevations and high heterogeneity in elevation, the population growth rate was lowest and the density at which the population tended to replace itself (i.e. the Allee threshold) was highest. An analysis of 22 years of field data also showed decreases in population growth rates with elevation and heterogeneity in elevation that were largely consistent with the model predictions. These results highlight how topographic characteristics can affect reproductive asynchrony and influence mate-finding Allee effects in an invading non-native insect population. Given the dependence of developmental rates on temperature in poikilotherms, topographic effects on reproductive success could potentially be important to the population dynamics of many organisms.

Application of the target fish community model to an urban river system.

Several models have been developed to assess the biological integrity of aquatic systems using fish community data. One of these, the target fish community (TFC) model, has been used primarily to assess the biological integrity of larger, mainstem rivers in southern New England with basins characterized by dispersed human activities. We tested the efficacy of the TFC approach to specify the fish community in the highly urbanized Charles River watershed in eastern Massachusetts. To create a TFC for the Charles River we assembled a list of fish species that historically inhabited the Charles River watershed, identified geomorphically and zoogeographically similar reference rivers regarded as being in high quality condition, amassed fish survey data for the reference rivers, and extracted from the collections the information needed to define a TFC. We used a similarity measurement method to assess the extent to which the study river community complies with the TFC and an inference approach to summarize the manner in which the existing fish community differed from target conditions. The five most abundant species in the TFC were common shiners (34%), fallfish (17%) redbreast sunfish (11%), white suckers (8%), and American eel (7%). Three of the five species predicted to be most abundant in the TFC were scarce or absent in the existing river community. Further, the river was dominated by macrohabitat generalists (99%) while the TFC was predicted to contain 19% fluvial specialist species, 43% fluvial dependent species, and 38% macrohabitat generalist species. In addition, while the target community was dominated by fish intolerant (37%) and moderately tolerant (39%) of water quality degradation, the existing community was dominated by tolerant individuals (59%) and lacked intolerant species expected in the TFC. Similarity scores for species, habitat use specialization, and water quality degradation tolerance categories were 28%, 35% and 66%, respectively. The clear pattern of deviations from target conditions when observing fish habitat requirements strongly suggests that physical habitat change should be a priority for river enhancement in the Charles River. Comparison of our target and existing fish communities to those from a comprehensive study of Northeastern fish assemblage responses to urban intensity gradients revealed very similar results. Likewise, comparison of our TFC community and affinity scores to those of other TFCs from similar regions also yielded similar results and encouraging findings. Based on the positive results of these comparisons, the utility of the findings from the inference approach, and the widespread adoption of the TFC in the Northeast US, it appears that the TFC approach can be used effectively to identify the composition of a healthy fish community and guide river enhancements in both highly urbanized and non-urbanized streams and rivers in the Northeast US.

A water quality model for regional stream assessment and conservation strategy development.

Non-point-source (NPS) pollution remains the primary source of stream impairment in the United States. Many problems such as eutrophication, sedimentation, and hypoxia are linked with NPS pollution which reduces the water quality for aquatic and terrestrial organisms. Increasingly, NPS pollution models have been used for landscape-scale pollution assessment and conservation strategy development. Our modeling approach functions at a scale between simple landscape-level assessments and complex, data-intensive modeling by providing a rapid, landscape-scale geographic information system (GIS) model with minimal data requirements and widespread applicability. Our model relies on curve numbers, literature-derived pollution concentrations, and land status to evaluate total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS) at the reach scale. Model testing in the Chesapeake Bay watershed indicated that predicted distributions of water quality classes were realistic at the reach scale, but precise estimates of pollution concentrations at the local scale can have errors. Application of our model in the tributary watersheds along Lake Ontario suggested that it is useful to managers in watershed planning by rapidly providing important information about NPS pollution conditions in areas where large data gaps exist, comparisons among stream reaches across numerous watersheds are required, or regional assessments are sought.