EFSA's framework for evidence-based scientific assessments: A case study on uncertainty analysis.

To provide sound scientific advice in support of the European decision-making process in food and feed safety, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has defined the principles for producing "evidence-based scientific assessments" (impartiality, methodological rigor, transparency, and engagement) and, to help fulfil them, has developed cross-cutting methodological approaches. This paper focusses on two of these approaches: conducting scientific assessments in four steps ­ with an emphasis on developing a protocol for the assessment a priori ­ and analyzing uncertainty. An overview of the 4-step approach and of the methods for addressing uncertainty is given, and a case study on uncertainty analysis, developed in collaboration with the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, is illustrated. The main advantage related to the implementation of protocols and uncertainty analysis is improvement of the scientific value of the outputs. However, experience and further capacity-building is needed to better incorporate uncertainty analysis into the planning phase (protocol) of the scientific assessment process. The case study is based on exposure in humans. Nonetheless it provides an example of a framework for evidence-based scientific assessments that is applicable also to other types of evidence, including evidence arising from new approach methodologies. Adopting the proposed framework, which covers an analysis of uncertainties in the planning and implementation phase, is expected to foster the integration of multiple evidence sources, including alternative methods and testing strategies, in the regulatory scientific assessment process.

Editorial: Exploring the need to include microbiomes into EFSA's scientific assessments.

The communities of microorganisms and their genomes in a defined environment are collectively referred to as microbiomes (Marchesi and Ravel, 2015). They include representatives from the Bacteria, Archaea, lower and higher Eukarya, and viruses, and are found in most environments such as soils, aquatic habitats, surfaces and specific lumen of plants, animals and humans. According to ongoing studies, microbiome structures and dynamics across the food system can have both direct and indirect effects on human and animal health, in addition to their impact on food quality, safety and sustainability (CNBBSV concept paper, 2019). Moreover, recent research projects have offered new insights into the associations between microbiomes and a wide range of human diseases as well as their possible impact in modulating the exposure to environmental chemicals. As one of the core tasks of EFSA is to assess risks to human and animal health and/or the environment from substances linked to food and feed production, the increasing understanding of the role of microbiomes in health calls for a prospective mapping of their roles into regulatory scientific assessment processes with a view to understanding their potential health impact.

Human dietary exposure to chemicals in sub-Saharan Africa: safety assessment through a total diet study.

BACKGROUND: Human dietary exposure to chemicals can result in a wide range of adverse health effects. Some substances might cause non-communicable diseases, including cancer and coronary heart diseases, and could be nephrotoxic. Food is the main human exposure route for many chemicals. We aimed to assess human dietary exposure to a wide range of food chemicals. METHODS: We did a total diet study in Benin, Cameroon, Mali, and Nigeria. We assessed 4020 representative samples of foods, prepared as consumed, which covered more than 90% of the diet of 7291 households from eight study centres. By combining representative dietary surveys of countries with findings for concentrations of 872 chemicals in foods, we characterised human dietary exposure. FINDINGS: Exposure to lead could result in increases in adult blood pressure up to 2·0 mm Hg, whereas children might lose 8·8-13·3 IQ points (95th percentile in Kano, Nigeria). Morbidity factors caused by coexposure to aflatoxin B1 and hepatitis B virus, and sterigmatocystin and fumonisins, suggest several thousands of additional liver cancer cases per year, and a substantial contribution to the burden of chronic malnutrition in childhood. Exposure to 13 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from consumption of smoked fish and edible oils exceeded levels associated with possible carcinogenicity and genotoxicity health concerns in all study centres. Exposure to aluminium, ochratoxin A, and citrinin indicated a public health concern about nephropathies. From 470 pesticides tested across the four countries, only high concentrations of chlorpyrifos in smoked fish (unauthorised practice identified in Mali) could pose a human health risk. INTERPRETATION: Risks characterised by this total diet study underscore specific priorities in terms of food safety management in sub-Saharan Africa. Similar investigations specifically targeting children are crucially needed. FUNDING: Standards and Trade Development Facility.

Naturally occurring bisphenol F in plants used in traditional medicine.

Bisphenol F (BPF, 4-[(4-hydroxyphenyl)methyl]phenol) is a bisphenol that is structurally similar to bisphenol A (BPA). In response to consumer concern towards BPA, industry has started to substitute BPA for BPF and other bisphenol analogues in the production of epoxy resins and coatings for various applications. In 2016, it was reported that commercially sold mustard contained naturally occurring BPF. Here, the existing literature was reviewed to investigate whether other natural sources of BPF among edible plants exist, including their impact on human exposure to BPF. Coeloglossum viride var. bracteatum (rhizome), Galeola faberi (rhizome), Gastrodia elata (rhizome), Xanthium strumarium (seeds) and Tropidia curculioides (root) were found to contain naturally occurring BPF. Botanical extracts from these plants are used in traditional Chinese medicine. The highest values of BPF were recorded for G. elata and T. curculioides. Information on precise doses of the plant extracts used is scarce; however, for G. elata, also known as Tian Ma and available in powder form, a daily exposure of BPF from this source could theoretically amount up to 4.5 µg/kg body weight per day (based on a 70 kg body weight). Therefore, herbal products used in traditional Chinese medicine should be considered as a potential source contributing to the overall human exposure when assessing endocrine-active bisphenolic compounds.

Guidance on Communication of Uncertainty in Scientific Assessments.

This document provides guidance for communicators on how to communicate the various expressions of uncertainty described in EFSA's document: 'Guidance on uncertainty analysis in scientific assessments'. It also contains specific guidance for assessors on how best to report the various expressions of uncertainty. The document provides a template for identifying expressions of uncertainty in scientific assessments and locating the specific guidance for each expression. The guidance is structured according to EFSA's three broadly defined categories of target audience: 'entry', 'informed' and 'technical' levels. Communicators should use the guidance for entry and informed audiences, while assessors should use the guidance for the technical level. The guidance was formulated using evidence from the scientific literature, grey literature and two EFSA research studies, or based on judgement and reasoning where evidence was incomplete or missing. The limitations of the evidence sources inform the recommendations for further research on uncertainty communication.

Animal dietary exposure: overview of current approaches used at EFSA.

At EFSA, animal dietary exposure estimates are undertaken by several Panels/Units to assess the risk of feed contaminants, pesticide residues, genetically modified feed and feed additives. Guidance documents describing methodologies for animal dietary exposure assessment are available both at EFSA and international levels. Although appropriate within pertinent regulatory frameworks, the methodologies used to assess animal dietary exposure vary across risk assessment areas. There are different approaches ranging from quick worst-case estimations to more refined methods assessing actual exposure, resulting from the use of a heterogeneous selection of animal populations and default values to estimate feed intake. Furthermore, current feed classification systems in place at international and national levels contain a large and heterogeneous number of feed materials, which may benefit from further harmonisation efforts. This technical report presents an overview of the current approaches in place at EFSA to assess the exposure to chemicals in feed. The possibility for a greater harmonisation of feed classification and terminology is also addressed by comparing the structure of the EU catalogue of feed materials and the Harmonised OECD tables of feedstuffs derived from field crops with the EFSA FoodEx2 system.

The principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment.

To meet the general requirement for transparency in EFSA's work, all its scientific assessments must consider uncertainty. Assessments must say clearly and unambiguously what sources of uncertainty have been identified and what is their impact on the assessment conclusion. This applies to all EFSA's areas, all types of scientific assessment and all types of uncertainty affecting assessment. This current Opinion describes the principles and methods supporting a concise Guidance Document on Uncertainty in EFSA's Scientific Assessment, published separately. These documents do not prescribe specific methods for uncertainty analysis but rather provide a flexible framework within which different methods may be selected, according to the needs of each assessment. Assessors should systematically identify sources of uncertainty, checking each part of their assessment to minimise the risk of overlooking important uncertainties. Uncertainty may be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. It is neither necessary nor possible to quantify separately every source of uncertainty affecting an assessment. However, assessors should express in quantitative terms the combined effect of as many as possible of identified sources of uncertainty. The guidance describes practical approaches. Uncertainty analysis should be conducted in a flexible, iterative manner, starting at a level appropriate to the assessment and refining the analysis as far as is needed or possible within the time available. The methods and results of the uncertainty analysis should be reported fully and transparently. Every EFSA Panel and Unit applied the draft Guidance to at least one assessment in their work area during a trial period of one year. Experience gained in this period resulted in improved guidance. The Scientific Committee considers that uncertainty analysis will be unconditional for EFSA Panels and staff and must be embedded into scientific assessment in all areas of EFSA's work.

Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments.

Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.

Methodology design of the regional Sub-Saharan Africa Total Diet Study in Benin, Cameroon, Mali and Nigeria.

The core food model was described more than three decades ago, and has been used ever since to identify main food contributors to dietary intakes for both nutrients and other food chemicals. The Sub-Saharan Africa Total Diet Study (SSA-TDS) uses this model to describe the food consumption habits of some selected populations of Benin, Cameroon, Mali, and Nigeria, prior to use in the completion of quantitative risk assessments with regard to food chemicals. Food consumption data were derived from food expenditure data contained in national household budget surveys that were provided by the national institutes of statistics in each country. A classification of African foods was established for the purpose of the study and core foods were selected, so as to reflect 96 ± 1% of the average national total diet expressed in weight. Populations from eight study centers were selected by national stakeholders. This approach involves the purchase of 4020 individual foods, prepared as consumed and pooled into 335 food composite samples, for analysis of mycotoxins, PAHs, PCBs and dioxins, pesticides, metals and trace elements, PFAs, and BFRs. This sampling plan aims to provide a representative, cost effective, and replicable approach for deterministic dietary exposure assessments in developing countries.

GBA-associated PD. Neurodegeneration, altered membrane metabolism, and lack of energy failure.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate possible mechanisms leading to neurodegeneration in patients with glucocerebrosidase (GBA)-associated Parkinson disease (PD) using combined proton ((1)H) and phosphorus ((31)P) magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) in vivo. METHODS: (1)H and (1)H-decoupled (31)P MRSI was performed in 13 patients with PD with heterozygous GBA mutations (GBA-PD) and 19 age- and sex-matched healthy controls to investigate metabolite concentrations in the mesostriatal target regions of PD pathology. NAA as marker of neuronal integrity, choline and ethanolamine containing compounds as markers of membrane phospholipid metabolism, and energy metabolites (notably high-energy phosphates) were quantified. RESULTS: Compared to controls, NAA was significantly reduced in the putamen (p = 0.012) and in the midbrain of GBA-PD (p = 0.05). The choline concentration obtained from (1)H MRSI was significantly decreased in the midbrain of GBA-PD (p = 0.010). The phospholipid degradation product glycerophosphoethalonamine was increased in the putamen of GBA-PD (p = 0.05). Changes of energy metabolism were not detected in any region of interest. CONCLUSION: The pattern of neurodegeneration in GBA-associated PD is more pronounced in the putamen than in the midbrain. Our MRSI findings suggest that the neurodegenerative process in GBA-PD is associated with alterations of membrane phospholipid metabolism which might be also involved in abnormal α-synuclein aggregation.