Making Your Own Luck: Weak Vertical Swimming Improves Dispersal Success for Coastal Marine Larvae.

Dispersive early life stages are common in nature. Although many dispersing organisms ("propagules") are passively moved by outside forces, some improve their chances of successful dispersal through weak movements that exploit the structure of the environment to great effect. The larvae of many coastal marine invertebrates, for instance, swim vertically through the water column to exploit depth-varying currents, food abundance, and predation risk. Several swimming behaviors and their effects on dispersal between habitats are characterized in the literature, yet it remains unclear when and why these behaviors are advantageous. We addressed this gap using a mathematical model of larval dispersal that scored how well behaviors allowed larvae to simultaneously locate habitats, avoid predators, and gather energy. We computed optimal larval behaviors through dynamic programming, and compared those optima against passive floating and three well documented behaviors from the literature. Optimal behaviors often (but not always) resembled the documented ones. However, our model predicted that the behaviors from the literature performed robustly well, if not optimally, across many conditions. Our results shed light on why some larval behaviors are widespread geographically and across species, and underscore the importance of carefully considering the weak movements of otherwise passive propagules when studying dispersal.

Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types.

Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since outbreak data are often incomplete and may vary in type across outbreaks (e.g., daily case counts, serology, cases per household). We propose that outbreaks described with varied data types can be directly compared by using those data to estimate a common set of epidemiological parameters. To demonstrate this for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), we developed a realistic model of CHIKV transmission, along with a Bayesian inference method that accommodates any type of outbreak data that can be simulated. The inference method makes use of the fact that all data types arise from the same transmission process, which is simulated by the model. We applied these tools to data from three real-world outbreaks of CHIKV in Italy, Cambodia, and Bangladesh to estimate nine model parameters. We found that these populations differed in several parameters, including pre-existing immunity and house-to-house differences in mosquito activity. These differences resulted in posterior predictions of local CHIKV transmission risk that varied nearly fourfold: 16% in Italy, 28% in Cambodia, and 62% in Bangladesh. Our inference method and model can be applied to improve understanding of the epidemiology of CHIKV and other pathogens for which outbreaks are described with varied data types.

Competition and Stragglers as Mediators of Developmental Synchrony in Periodical Cicadas.

Periodical cicadas are enigmatic organisms: broods spanning large spatial ranges consist of developmentally synchronized populations of 3-4 sympatric species that emerge as adults every 13 or 17 years. Only one brood typically occupies any single location, with well-defined boundaries separating distinct broods. The cause of such synchronous development remains uncertain, but it is known that synchronous emergence of large numbers of adults in a single year satiates predators, allowing a substantial fraction of emerging adults to survive long enough to reproduce. Competition among nymphs feeding on tree roots almost certainly plays a role in limiting populations. However, due to the difficulty of working with such long-lived subterranean life stages, the mechanisms governing competition in periodical cicadas have not been identified. A second process that may affect synchrony among periodical cicadas is their ability to delay or accelerate their emergence as adults by 1 year and accelerate it by 4 years (stragglers). We develop a nonlinear Leslie matrix-type model that describes cicada dynamics accounting for predation, competition, and stragglers. Using numerical simulations, we identify conditions that generate dynamics in which a single brood occupies a given geographical location. Our results show that while stragglers have the potential for introducing multiple sympatric broods, the interaction of interbrood competition with predation-driven Allee effects creates a system resistant to such invasions, and populations maintain developmental synchrony.