Enhancing triage accuracy: The influence of nursing education on risk prediction.

AIM: This study aimed to compare the performance in risk prediction of various outcomes between specially trained triage nurses and the Manchester Triage System (MTS). DESIGN: Prospective observational study. METHODS: The study was conducted from June 1st to December 31st, 2023, at the Emergency Department of Merano Hospital. Triage nurses underwent continuous training through dedicated courses and daily audits. We compared the risk stratification performed by expert nurses with that of MTS on various outcomes such as mortality, hospitalisation, and urgency defined by the physicians. Comparisons were made using the Areas Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The agreement in code classification between the MTS and the expert nurse was very low. The AUROC curve analysis showed that the expert nurse outperformed the MTS in all outcomes. The triage nurse's experience led to statistically significant better stratification in admission rates, ICU admissions, and all outcomes based on the physician's assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The continuous training of nurses enables them to achieve better risk prediction compared to standardized triage systems like MTS, emphasizing the utility and necessity of implementing continuous training pathways for these highly specialised personnel.

Assessing the utility of frailty scores in triage: a comparative study of validated scales.

Currently, there is conflicting evidence regarding the efficacy of frailty scales and their ability to enhance or support triage operations. This study aimed to assess the utility of three common frailty scales (CFS, PRISMA-7, ISAR) and determine their utility in the triage setting. This prospective observational monocentric study was conducted at Merano Hospital's Emergency Department (ED) from June 1st to December 31st, 2023. All patients attending this ED during the 80-day study period were included, and frailty scores were correlated with three outcomes: hospitalization, 30-day mortality, and severity of condition as assessed by ED physicians. Patients were categorized by age, and analyses were performed for the entire study population, patients aged 18-64, and those aged 65 or older. Univariate analysis was followed by multivariable analysis to evaluate whether frailty scores were independently associated with the outcomes. In multivariable analysis, none of the frailty scores were found to be associated with the study outcomes, except for the CFS, which was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality, with an odds ratio of 1.752 (95% CI 1.148-2.674; p = 0.009) in the general population and 1.708 (95% CI 1.044-2.793; p = 0.033) in the population aged ≥ 65. Presently, available frailty scores do not appear to be useful in the triage context. Future research should consider developing new systems for accurate frailty assessment to support risk prediction in the triage assessment.

Predictors of success of pharmacological management in patients with chronic lower back pain: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Conservative management is recommended as the first therapeutic step in chronic low back pain (LBP), but there is no available evidence regarding the possible effect of patients' baseline characteristics on the therapeutic outcomes. A systematic review of the literature was performed to investigate this point. METHODS: In February 2024, all the level I studies investigating the role of pharmacological management for chronic LBP were accessed. Data concerning the patient demographic at baseline were collected: number of patients and related mean BMI and age, duration of the symptoms, duration of the follow-up, percentage of females, Numeric Rating Scale (NRS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMQ), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). The outcomes at the last follow-up were evaluated through NRS, RMQ, and ODI. A multiple linear model regression diagnostic through the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) was used. RESULTS: Data from 47 articles (9007 patients) were obtained. The analysis yielded the following significant associations: age at baseline and NRS at follow-up (r = - 0.22; P = 0.04), NRS at baseline with NRS (r = 0.26; P = 0.03) and RMQ (r = - 0.58; P = 0.02) at follow-up, RMQ at baseline and the same at follow-up (r = 0.69; P = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Older age, higher BMI, presence of comorbidities, higher ODI and a long history of symptoms or surgical treatments do not reduce the efficacy of pharmacological management of chronic LBP. However, pharmacological therapy is not an effective option for patients with high baseline RMQ. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I systematic review of RCTs.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynaecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate Net Survival (NS), Cure Fraction, Time To Cure (5-year conditional NS>95%), Cure Prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and Already Cured (living longer than Time to Cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121,704) of Italian women were alive after corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52,551) after cervical, and 0.2% (52,153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (Cure Prevalence). Women with gynaecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% after 5 years since diagnosis. The Cure Fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time To Cure was ≤10 years for women with gynaecological cancers aged <55 years. 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were Already Cured. These results will contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynaecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones.

Is the National Early Warning Score able to identify nursing activity load? A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score scale correlates well with the intensity of the patient's acute condition. It could also correlate with the nursing activity load and prove useful in defining and redistributing nursing resources based on the acuity of patients. AIM: To assess whether patients' National Early Warning Score at hospital admission correlates with objective nursing demands and can be used to optimize the distribution of available care resources. METHODS: This single-center prospective study included patients admitted to the Department of Internal Medicine at the Civil Hospital in Altovicentino (Italy) between September 1 and December 31, 2022. Nursing activities were recorded for the first three days after admission and standardized to the daily mean as performance/5 min/patient/day. Linear regression was used to assess the correlation between nursing demands for different National Early Warning Scores. RESULTS: This study included 333 patients. Their mean National Early Warning Score was 3.9 (standard deviation: 2.9), with 61 % (203/333) in the National Early Warning Score <5 category, 19.5 % (65/333) in the National Early Warning Score 5-6 category, and 19.5 % (65/333) in the National Early Warning Score >6 category. Their average daily care requirements increased from 22 (16-30) activities/5 min/patient/day in the low National Early Warning Score category to 30 (20-39) activities/5 min/patient/day in the intermediate National Early Warning Score category (p < 0.001) and 35 (23-45) activities/5 min/patient/day in the high National Early Warning Score category (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The National Early Warning Score correlates with nursing care activities for patients with an acute condition and can be used to optimize the distribution of available care resources.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, its related social restriction measures and vaccination campaign on emergency department attendances for epileptic seizures: An interrupted time-series analysis.

AIM: To investigate the impact of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, its related social restriction measure (national lockdown) and vaccination campaign on emergency department (ED) accesses for epileptic seizures. METHODS: Retrospective observational analysis conducted on a consecutive cohort of patients who sought medical care at the ED of the General Hospital of Merano, Italy, from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021. We investigated the monthly ED attendances for epileptic seizures between the periods before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the national lockdown (March 2020) using an interrupted time-series analysis with data standardized for 1000 accesses/month. As a further temporal cutoff, we used the start of the national vaccination campaign. RESULTS: Between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, a total of 415,005 ED attendances were recorded; 1,254 (0.3 %) were due to epileptic seizures. No significant difference was found in the rate of standardized ED accesses for epileptic seizures in March 2020 (time point of interest) to the pre-pandemic trend (0.33/1000; 95 %CI: -1.05 to 1.71; p = 0.637). Similarly, there was no difference between the pre- and post-pandemic trends (-0.02/1000; 95 %CI: -0.11 to 0.06; p = 0.600). When adopting January 2021 as time point of interest, we found no difference to the pre-vaccination trend (0.83/1000; 95 %CI: -0.48 to 2.15), and no difference in the pre- and post-vaccination trends (-0.12/1000; 95 %CI: -0.27 to 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic and its related social restrictions (lockdown), as well as the COVID-19 national vaccination campaign, had little impact on ED accesses for epileptic seizures.

Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy.

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Human intelligence versus Chat-GPT: who performs better in correctly classifying patients in triage?

INTRODUCTION: Chat-GPT is rapidly emerging as a promising and potentially revolutionary tool in medicine. One of its possible applications is the stratification of patients according to the severity of clinical conditions and prognosis during the triage evaluation in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: Using a randomly selected sample of 30 vignettes recreated from real clinical cases, we compared the concordance in risk stratification of ED patients between healthcare personnel and Chat-GPT. The concordance was assessed with Cohen's kappa, and the performance was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) curves. Among the outcomes, we considered mortality within 72 h, the need for hospitalization, and the presence of a severe or time-dependent condition. RESULTS: The concordance in triage code assignment between triage nurses and Chat-GPT was 0.278 (unweighted Cohen's kappa; 95% confidence intervals: 0.231-0.388). For all outcomes, the ROC values were higher for the triage nurses. The most relevant difference was found in 72-h mortality, where triage nurses showed an AUROC of 0.910 (0.757-1.000) compared to only 0.669 (0.153-1.000) for Chat-GPT. CONCLUSIONS: The current level of Chat-GPT reliability is insufficient to make it a valid substitute for the expertise of triage nurses in prioritizing ED patients. Further developments are required to enhance the safety and effectiveness of AI for risk stratification of ED patients.

The role of lactate-to-albumin ratio to predict 30-day risk of death in patients with sepsis in the emergency department: a decision tree analysis.

BACKGROUND: Accurately estimating the prognosis of septic patients on arrival in the emergency department (ED) is clinically challenging. The lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) has recently been proposed to improve the predictive performance of septic patients admitted to the ICU. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess whether the LAR could be used as an early prognostic marker of 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis in the ED. METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted in the ED of the Hospital of Merano. All patients with a diagnosis of sepsis were considered. The LAR was recorded on arrival in the ED. The primary outcome measure was mortality at 30 days. The predictive role of the LAR for mortality was evaluated with the area under the ROC curve, logistic regression adjusted for the Charlson Comorbidity Index value, National Early Warning Score, and Sequential Organ Failure score, and with decision tree analysis. RESULTS: 459 patients were enrolled, of whom 17% (78/459) died at 30 days. The median LAR of the patients who died at 30 days (0.78 [0.45-1.19]) was significantly higher than the median LAR of survivors (0.42 [0.27-0.65]) (p < 0.001). The discriminatory ability of the LAR for death at 30 days was 0.738, higher than that of lactate alone (0.692), and slightly lower than that of albumin alone (0.753). The decision trees confirmed the role of the LAR as an independent risk factor for mortality. CONCLUSION: The LAR can be used as an index to better predict the 30-day risk of death in septic patients.

Real requirements of nursing activities and patient-related factors related to nursing overload in an internal medicine department.

Adequate nursing care can be decisive for the outcome of a patient admitted to an internal medicine ward. Individual prediction of nursing activity at the time of a patient's admission could improve the work process. This study aimed to assess the objectively assessed nursing requirements of patients admitted to a medical setting and to identify clinical factors that correlate with high demands. This is a prospective and pragmatic observational study that enrolled patients admitted to the Internal Medicine ward at the Altovicentino Civil Hospital (Italy) between September 1 and December 31, 2022. Nursing activities were recorded for the first 3 days of hospitalization and standardized as performance/5 min/patient. Patients requiring more than the 75th percentile of performance/5 min/patient were considered nursing over-activities. Multivariable models were used to assess patient-related risk factors associated with nursing over-activity. This study enrolled 333 patients (mean age: 74.2; 55.6% male). Their mean Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Chronic Barthel Index, and Sistema Informtativo della Performance Infermieristica (SIPI) scores were 5.3, 4.2, 62.4, and 53.7, respectively. Mean National Early Warning System (NEWS) on admission was 3.9 (standard deviation: 2.8). A median of 73 (interquartile range [IQR]: 54-109) nursing care activities/5 min/patient were performed. NEWS score (odds ratio [OR]: 1.372, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.216-1.547, p < 0.001) and Acute Barthel Index (OR: 0.983, 95%CI: 0.967-0.999, p = 0.041) were independent risk factors for nursing over-activities. NEWS and the Acute Barthel Index could help reorganize nursing resources within internal medicine wards, allowing for an equal distribution between patients who require more resources and those who require less.

Equated hospitalization rate of patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases as compared to normal population in 2°wave SARSCoV2 infection.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical manifestations and outcome of COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal disease (iRMD) as compared with the general population. METHODS: This is a case-control study of patients selected from the South-Tyrol public health service-Italy with and without iRMD affected by COVID-19. We included patients ≥18 years and with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between 1.10.2020 and 01.03.2021. Cases were identified by linking the diagnosis of a rheumatic disease with PCR test positivity; these were matched in a 1:1.8 (planned 1:2) ratio for age, sex, and date of COVID-19 diagnosis with people from the general population. The outcomes of primary interest were hospitalization and severe course (intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, death). RESULTS: The study population consisted of 561 COVID-19 patients, of which 201 (mean age 60.4 years; 65.2% female) were patients with iRMD and 360 were controls from the general population (59.8 years; 64.7% female). The majority of iRMD patients (88.6%) received an immunosuppressive drug at time of COVID-19 diagnosis, 36.3% were under glucocorticoids. COVID-19 related hospitalization (12.4% vs 10.6%, p= 0.49), severe course (5.0% vs 5.3%, p= 1.00), and mortality (3.5% vs 4.4%, p= 0.66) were similar between groups. Among hospitalized patients, mechanic ventilation was more common in iRMD patients than in controls [n = 5 (20.0%) vs n = 1 (2.6%), p= 0.035]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates similar rates for admission, severe course and mortality between patients with iRMD and controls affected by COVID-19. Among hospitalized patients, mechanical ventilation was more frequently required in the iRMD group.

The Clinical Utility of Albumin with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in Improving 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Patients with Infection in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is currently the primary prognostic tool used in patients with infections to predict sepsis and mortality, although its predictive role remains debated. Serum albumin values have been recently found to correlate with the severity of sepsis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the clinical usefulness of albumin dosage on SOFA score prediction in infected patients. METHODS: This prospective single-centre observational study was performed in 2021. We used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) technique to evaluate the additional prognostic value of serum albumin used together with the SOFA score in infected patients. The discriminatory abilities of the SOFA score alone, of albumin levels alone, and of the albumin levels together with (but not incorporated into) the SOFA score was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: We included 949 patients with an infectious status; 8.9% (84/949) died within 30 days of ED admission. The AUROC for the SOFA score was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.756-0.849) and the albumin level was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.775-0.852). The NRI found that serum albumin improved SOFA score predictions of 30-day mortality by 24.3% (p < 0.001), yielding an AUROC of 0.881 (95% CI: 0.848-0.912; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Using serum albumin values together with the SOFA score can improve prognostic prediction in patients with infections evaluated in the ED.

Causes of death in women with breast cancer: a risks and rates study on a population-based cohort.

Introduction: The increasing survival of patients with breast cancer has prompted the assessment of mortality due to all causes of death in these patients. We estimated the absolute risks of death from different causes, useful for health-care planning and clinical prediction, as well as cause-specific hazards, useful for hypothesis generation on etiology and risk factors. Materials and methods: Using data from population-based cancer registries we performed a retrospective study on a cohort of women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. We carried out a competing-cause analysis computing cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and cause-specific hazards (CSHs) in the whole cohort, separately by age, stage and registry area. Results: The study cohort comprised 12,742 women followed up for six years. Breast cancer showed the highest CIF, 13.71%, and cardiovascular disease was the second leading cause of death with a CIF of 3.60%. The contribution of breast cancer deaths to the CIF for all causes varied widely by age class: 89.25% in women diagnosed at age <50 years, 72.94% in women diagnosed at age 50-69 and 48.25% in women diagnosed at age ≥70. Greater CIF variations were observed according to stage: the contribution of causes other than breast cancer to CIF for all causes was 73.4% in women with stage I disease, 42.9% in stage II-III and only 13.2% in stage IV. CSH computation revealed temporal variations: in women diagnosed at age ≥70 the CSH for breast cancer was equaled by that for cardiovascular disease and "other diseases" in the sixth year following diagnosis, and an early peak for breast cancer was identified in the first year following diagnosis. Among women aged 50-69 we identified an early peak for breast cancer followed by a further peak near the second year of follow-up. Comparison by geographic area highlighted conspicuous variations: the highest CIF for cardiovascular disease was more than 70% higher than the lowest, while for breast cancer the highest CIF doubled the lowest. Conclusion: The integrated interpretation of absolute risks and hazards suggests the need for multidisciplinary surveillance and prevention using community-based, holistic and well-coordinated survivorship care models.

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries.

Objectives: To describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries. Materials and methods: Cancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy. Results: For the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis. Conclusions: This study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active.

Relationship between depression, anxiety, stress, and SARS-CoV-2 infection: a longitudinal study.

Objectives: We aimed to (1) describe the course of the emotional burden (i.e., depression, anxiety, and stress) in a general population sample during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and (2) explore the association between emotional burden and a serologically proven infection with SARS-CoV-2. Study design: This longitudinal study involved a sample of community-dwelling persons aged ≥14 years from the general population of South Tyrol (Province of Bolzano-Bozen, Northern Italy). Data were collected at two stages over a 1-year period in 2020 and 2021. Methods: Persons were invited to participate in a survey on socio-demographic, health-related and psychosocial variables (e.g., age, chronic diseases, Depression Anxiety Stress Scale, DASS-21), as well as in the serological testing for of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulins. Results: In 2020, 855 (23.8%) out of 3,600 persons participated; in 2021, 305 (35.7%) out of 855 were tested again. We observed a statistically significant decrease in mean DASS-21 scores for depression, stress, and total scores between 2020 and 2021, yet not for anxiety. Persons with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infection between the first and second data collection exhibited increased emotional burden compared to those without SARS-CoV-2-infection. The odds of participants with a self-reported diagnosis of mental disorder for future infection with SARS-CoV-2 was almost four times higher than that of participants without mental disorders (OR:3.75; 95%CI:1.79-7.83). Conclusion: Our findings support to the hypothesis of a psycho-neuroendocrine-immune interplay in COVID-19. Further research is necessary to explore the mechanisms underlying the interplay between mental health and SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Obinutuzumab does not improve complete methabolic response but does not compromise mobilization or engraftment of autologous peripheral blood stem cells in diffuse large B cell lymphoma: Results from a fondazione italiana linfomi prospective phase II study (the GIOTTO study).

Salvage immunochemotherapy and transplant consolidation is the standard treatment for relapsed or refractory (R/R) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We tested a combination of Obinutuzumab and DHAP for treating R/R DLBCL. The primary end point was the rate of complete metabolic response (CMR). Secondary end points were stem cell mobilization, stem cell engraftment, overall survival, and feasibility. In this prospective, phase-2, single-arm trial (EudraCT 2014-004014-17) patients received the standard three doses of Obinutuzumab for the first cycle, and then one dose. Patients with CMR were consolidated with an autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). An interim analysis was provided after the first 29 patients to confirm the initial null hypothesis that at least 10/29 patients would achieve CMR. Among the 29 patients evaluated for the first stage only six patients (6/29, 21%) achieved CMR, thus, study enrollment was stopped. Nine patients exhibited extra-hematologic toxicities ≥ grade 3. Among the 19 patients that started stem cell mobilization, one failed (5%) and 18 achieved mobilization (95%). Of these 18 patients, nine were reinfused. Mobilization was observed in 16 patients (89%) after one or two apheresis rounds. The mean number of CD34 + cells mobilized was 5.8 × 106 /Kg (median: 5.5, IQR: 5-6.75). The mean number of reinfused CD34 + cells in the nine patients was 4.1 × 106 /Kg (median: 4.1, IQR: 3.5-5). Obinutuzumab combined with DHAP did not compromise stem cell mobilization or engraftment after ASCT in patients with DLBCL. However, Obinutuzumab + DHAP provided a lower CMR rate than expected.

Prospective epidemiological, molecular, and genetic characterization of a novel coronavirus disease in the Val Venosta/Vinschgau: the CHRIS COVID-19 study protocol.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been threatening the healthcare and socioeconomic systems of entire nations. While population-based surveys to assess the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection have become a priority, pre-existing longitudinal studies are ideally suited to assess the determinants of COVID-19 onset and severity.The Cooperative Health Research In South Tyrol (CHRIS) study completed the baseline recruitment of 13,393 adults from the Venosta/Vinschgau rural district in 2018, collecting extensive phenotypic and biomarker data, metabolomic data, densely imputed genotype and whole-exome sequencing data.Based on CHRIS, we designed a prospective study, called CHRIS COVID-19, aimed at: 1) estimating the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections; 2) screening for and investigating the determinants of incident infection among CHRIS participants and their household members; 3) monitoring the immune response of infected participants prospectively.An online screening questionnaire was sent to all CHRIS participants and their household members. A random sample of 1450 participants representative of the district population was invited to assess active (nasopharyngeal swab) or past (serum antibody test) infections. We prospectively invited for complete SARS-CoV-2 testing all questionnaire completers gauged as possible cases of past infection and their household members. In positive tested individuals, antibody response is monitored quarterly for one year. Untested and negative participants receive the screening questionnaire every four weeks until gauged as possible incident cases or till the study end.Originated from a collaboration between researchers and community stakeholders, the CHRIS COVID-19 study aims at generating knowledge about the epidemiological, molecular, and genetic characterization of COVID-19 and its long-term sequelae.

Prevalence and determinants of serum antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the general population of the Gardena valley.

Estimating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in communities is critical. We surveyed 2244 stratified random sample community members of the Gardena valley, a winter touristic area, amidst the first expansion phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We measured agreement between Diasorin and Abbott serum bioassay outputs and the Abbott optimal discriminant threshold of serum neutralisation titres with recursive receiver operating characteristic curve. We analytically adjusted serum antibody tests for unbiased seroprevalence estimate and analysed the determinants of infection with non-response weighted multiple logistic regression. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 26.9% (95% CI 25.2-28.6) by June 2020. The bioassays had a modest agreement with each other. At a lower threshold than the manufacturer's recommended level, the Abbott assay reflected greater discrimination of serum neutralisation capacity. Seropositivity was associated with place and economic activity, not with sex or age. Symptoms like fever and weakness were age-dependent. SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies should account for context in high prevalence areas.