Performance of third-trimester ultrasound for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates and evaluation of contingency screening policies.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of third-trimester fetal biometry and fetal Doppler studies for the prediction of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates, and to explore contingency strategies using a first-trimester prediction model based on maternal and fetal parameters and third-trimester ultrasound. METHODS: This was an observational cross-sectional study of uncomplicated singleton pregnancies. Risk assessment for chromosomal abnormality was carried out in 4702 pregnancies using a combination of ultrasound markers (fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and nasal bone assessment) and biochemistry (free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (ß-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A)) at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks. Maternal demographic characteristics and method of conception were recorded. Third-trimester (30-34 weeks) fetal biometry (biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL)) and umbilical artery (UA) and middle cerebral artery Doppler studies were performed routinely in a subgroup (n = 2310). Reference ranges for birth weight were constructed using the cohort of 4702 women, and neonates were classified as small (SGA, ≤ 5th centile) or appropriate (AGA) for gestational age. First-trimester, third-trimester and integrated first- and third-trimester prediction models for SGA were constructed using regression analysis and three different contingency strategies of rescanning in the third trimester were investigated. RESULTS: According to the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUCs), AC (AUC = 0.85) and ultrasound-estimated fetal weight (EFW, AUC = 0.87) were equally good predictors of SGA. The model was marginally improved by the addition of UA Doppler, smoking status and first-trimester indices (free ß-hCG and PAPP-A multiples of the median) (combined model, AUC = 0.88), but the difference was not statistically significant. A contingency strategy of rescanning 50% of the population in the third trimester according to the risk estimated by a first-trimester prediction model yielded a detection rate of 79% for a 25% screen-positive rate. CONCLUSION: Third-trimester ultrasound is effective in screening for SGA in uncomplicated pregnancies. The use of a contingency screening policy can reduce the need for unnecessary examinations.

A predictive model of short cervix at 20-24 weeks using first-trimester cervical length measurement and maternal history.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model for the prediction of short cervix ( ≤ 15 mm) at 20-24 weeks by combining maternal history and transvaginal ultrasonographic measurement of cervical length at 11-14 weeks. To explore the value of an additional ultrasound examination of the cervix at about 17 weeks. METHODS: Longitudinal prospective study in 800 unselected pregnant women presenting for first-trimester ultrasound assessment by nuchal translucency and serum biochemistry. Cervical length was evaluated transvaginally between 11 weeks and 13 weeks and 6 days (cx1), at 16-19 weeks (cx2) and 20-24 weeks (cx3). Backward multiple logistic regression analysis with cx3 ≤ 15 mm as the dependent variable was used to identify the predictors of a short cervix at 20-24 weeks. RESULTS: Cx1 and history of preterm delivery were significant independent contributors of a short cervix at 20-24 weeks [area under the curve (AUC 0.808, p < 0.001, Model) 1]. Furthermore, the cx1/cx2 ratio was a significant independent predictor of a short cervix at 20-24 weeks (odds ratio = 58.325 p = 0.012). The addition of the cx1/cx2 ratio improved the model (AUC = 0.878, p < 0.001, Model 2). CONCLUSIONS: A short cervix at 20-24 weeks can be predicted at the 11-14 weeks scan. The addition of a cervical measurement at about 17 weeks can improve the prediction model.

Attitudes of pregnant women regarding termination of pregnancy for fetal abnormality.

OBJECTIVE: To study the attitudes of pregnant women towards termination of pregnancy for fetal abnormality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A questionnaire was completed by all pregnant women attending routine ultrasound scan. They were asked whether they would opt for termination of the pregnancy in case the fetus was diagnosed with one of the following abnormalities: lethal anomaly, anomaly causing developmental delay, anomaly causing physical handicap, anomaly causing disfigurement and severe anomaly diagnosed after 24 weeks of pregnancy. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the effect of a variety of demographic and socio-economic characteristics in their choices. RESULTS: A total of 533 women completed the questionnaire out of which 447 (86%) would terminate the pregnancy in case of lethal fetal anomaly. The corresponding figures for anomaly causing developmental delay, anomaly causing physical handicap and anomaly causing disfigurement were 396 (77.8%), 332 (65.9%) and 228 (45.2%). A total of 313 (64.7%) would request late termination owing to severe anomaly. The only two statistically significant factors that influenced the maternal decision on pregnancy termination were religious beliefs and the frequency of practicing religious duties (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The majority of pregnant women would terminate pregnancy for lethal fetal anomaly and for an anomaly causing mental or physical handicap, even in late pregnancy.