Effect modification of polypharmacy on incident frailty by chronic kidney disease in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Frailty and polypharmacy are common conditions in older adults, especially in those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Therefore, we analyzed the association of polypharmacy and incident frailty and the effect modification by CKD in very old adults. METHODS: In non-frail individuals within the Berlin Initiative (cohort) Study, polypharmacy (≥ 5 medications) was assessed according to multiple definitions based on the number of regular and on demand prescription and over the counter drugs, as well as vitamins and supplements. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 and/or an albumin-creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g. Incident frailty was assessed at follow-up using Fried criteria. Logistic regression was applied to assess (1) the association of different polypharmacy definitions with incident frailty and (2) effect modification by CKD. RESULTS: In this cohort study, out of 757 non-frail participants (mean age 82.9 years, 52% female, 74% CKD), 298 (39%) participants reported polypharmacy. Over the observation period of 2.1 years, 105 became frail. Individuals with polypharmacy had 1.96 adjusted odds (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-3.19) of becoming frail compared to participants without polypharmacy. The effect of polypharmacy on incident frailty was modified by CKD on the additive scale (relative excess risk due to interaction: 1.56; 95% CI 0.01-3.12). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates an association of polypharmacy and incident frailty and suggests strong evidence for an effect modification of CKD on polypharmacy and incident frailty. Revision of prescriptions could be a target strategy to prevent frailty occurrence, especially in older adults with CKD.

The Lack of a Standardized Definition of Chronic Dialysis Treatment in German Statutory Health Insurance Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney failure (CKF) is often treated with dialysis, which is invasive and costly and carries major medical risks. The existing studies of patients with CKF requiring dialysis that are based on claims data from German statutory health insurance (SHI) carriers employ varying definitions of this entity, with unclear consequences for the resulting statistical estimates. METHODS: We carried out a cohort study on four random samples, each consisting of 62 200 persons aged 70 or above, from among the insurees of the SHI AOK Nordost, with one sample for each of the years 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. The prevalence, incidence, mortality, and direct health care costs of CKF requiring dialysis were estimated and compared on the basis of four different definitions from literature and a new definition developed by the authors in reference to billing data. RESULTS: The different definitions led to variation in 12-month prevalences (range: 0.33-0.61%) and 6-month incidences (0.058-0.100%). The percentage of patients with prior acute kidney injury (AKI) ranged from 27.6% to 61.8%. Among incident patients, three-month survival ranged from 70.2% to 88.1%, and six-month survival from 60.5% to 81.3%. In CKF patients without prior AKI, the survival curves differed less across definitions (80.2-91.8% at three months, 70.7-84.4% at six months). The monthly health care costs ranged from €6010 to €9606, with marked variability across definitions in the costs of inpatient and outpatient care. CONCLUSION: The lack of a standardized definition of CKF requiring dialysis in German SHI claims data leads to variability in the estimated case numbers, mortality, and health care costs. These differences are most probably in part due to the variable inclusion of inpatients who received short-term dialysis after AKI.

Diagnostic Validity of Chronic Kidney Disease in Health Claims Data Over Time: Results from a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults in Germany.

Purpose: The validity of ICD-10 diagnostic codes for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in health claims data has not been sufficiently studied in the general population and over time. Patients and Methods: We used data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥70 years in Berlin, Germany. With estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as reference, we assessed the diagnostic validity (sensitivity, specificity, positive [PPV], and negative predictive values [NPV]) of different claims-based ICD-10 codes for CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m²: ICD-10 N18.x-N19), G3 (eGFR 30-<60mL/min/1.73m²: N18.3), and G4-5 (eGFR <30mL/min/1.73m²: N18.4-5). We analysed trends over five study visits (2009-2019). Results: We included data of 2068 participants at baseline (2009-2011) and 870 at follow-up 4 (2018-2019), of whom 784 (38.9%) and 440 (50.6%) had CKD G3-5, respectively. At baseline, sensitivity for CKD in claims data ranged from 0.25 (95%-confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.28) to 0.51 (95%-CI 0.48-0.55) for G3-5, depending on the included ICD-10 codes, 0.20 (95%-CI 0.18-0.24) for G3, and 0.36 (95%-CI 0.25-0.49) for G4-5. Over the course of 10 years, sensitivity increased by 0.17 to 0.29 in all groups. Specificity, PPVs, and NPVs remained mostly stable over time and ranged from 0.82-0.99, 0.47-0.89, and 0.66-0.98 across all study visits, respectively. Conclusion: German claims data showed overall agreeable performance in identifying older adults with CKD, while differentiation between stages was limited. Our results suggest increasing sensitivity over time possibly attributable to improved CKD diagnosis and awareness.

Kidney function estimators for drug dose adjustment of direct oral anticoagulants in older adults with atrial fibrillation.

Background: The Cockcroft-Gault equation (CrClC-G) is recommended for dose adjustment of direct oral anticoagulant drugs (DOACs) to kidney function. We aimed to assess whether defining DOAC dose appropriateness according to various kidney function estimators changed the associations between dose appropriateness and adverse events in older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: Participants of the Berlin Initiative Study with AF and treated with DOACs were included. We investigated CrClC-G and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and European Kidney Function Consortium equations based on creatinine and/or cystatin C. Marginal structural Cox models yielded confounder-adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of mortality, thromboembolism and bleeding associated with dose status. Results: A total of 224 patients were included in the analysis (median age 87 years). Using CrClC-G, 154 (69%) had an appropriate dose of DOACs, 52 (23%) were underdosed and 18 (8%) were overdosed. During a 39-month median follow-up period, 109 (14.9/100 person-years) participants died, 25 (3.6/100 person-years) experienced thromboembolism and 60 (9.8/100 person-years) experienced bleeding. Dose status was not associated with mortality and thromboembolism, independent of the equation. Underdose status was associated with a lower risk of bleeding with all the equations compared with the appropriate dose group. In participants with discrepancies in dose status using CrClC-G and eGFR equations, the occurrence of endpoints did not differ between participants having an appropriate dose using CrClC-G or eGFR. Conclusion: In older adults with AF, the association of DOAC dose status with adverse events did not differ when using CrClC-G or eGFR. Our results suggest that eGFR equations are not inferior to CrClC-G within this context.

Incidence of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury and trajectories of glomerular filtration rate in older adults.

BACKGROUND: In older adults, epidemiological data on incidence rates (IR) of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI) are scarce. Also, little is known about trajectories of kidney function before hospitalization with AKI. METHODS: We used data from biennial face-to-face study visits from the prospective Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) including community-dwelling participants aged 70+ with repeat estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine and cystatin C. Primary outcome was first incident of hospital-acquired AKI assessed through linked insurance claims data. In a nested case-control study, kidney function decline prior to hospitalization with and without AKI was investigated using eGFR trajectories estimated with mixed-effects models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular comorbidities. RESULTS: Out of 2020 study participants (52.9% women; mean age 80.4 years) without prior AKI, 383 developed a first incident AKI, 1518 were hospitalized without AKI, and 119 were never hospitalized during a median follow-up of 8.8 years. IR per 1000 person years for hospital-acquired AKI was 26.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 24.1-29.6); higher for men than women (33.9 (29.5-38.7) vs. 21.2 (18.1-24.6)). IR (CI) were lowest for persons aged 70-75 (13.1; 10.0-16.8) and highest for ≥ 90 years (54.6; 40.0-72.9). eGFR trajectories declined more steeply in men and women with AKI compared to men and women without AKI years before hospitalization. These differences in eGFR trajectories remained after adjustment for traditional comorbidities. CONCLUSION: AKI is a frequent in-hospital complication in individuals aged 70 + showing a striking increase of IR with age. eGFR decline was steeper in elderly patients with AKI compared to elderly patients without AKI years prior to hospitalization emphasising the need for long-term kidney function monitoring pre-admission to improve risk stratification.

Estimated GFR Accuracy When Cystatin C- and Creatinine-Based Estimates Are Discrepant in Older Adults.

Rationale & Objective: Serum creatinine and cystatin C are used to estimate glomerular filtration rate, but creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr), cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys), and combined creatinine- and cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr-cys) are often divergent, particularly in older adults. We investigated which estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was more accurate and less biased compared with measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR). Study Design: A diagnostic test study from the Berlin Initiative Study. Setting & Participants: The study population included 657 individuals aged 70 years or older with iohexol plasma clearance (mGFR) and serum creatinine and cystatin C measurements: 567 community-dwelling participants and 90 with a serum creatinine of ≥1.5 mg/dL. Tests Compared: We defined 3 groups on the basis of the difference eGFRcys - eGFRcr: whether < -5 mL/min/1.73 m2 (lower eGFRcys), within 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 (reference), or ≥ 5 mL/min/1.73 m2 (lower eGFRcr). eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys were compared to mGFR to assess bias and accuracy. Outcome: Median bias (eGFR minus mGFR) with 95% CIs and accuracy (percentage of eGFR values within ±30% of mGFR). Results: The mean ± standard deviation age was 78 ± 6 years; the mean eGFRcys, eGFRcr, and eGFRcr-cys were 59 ± 23, 64 ± 20, and 61 ± 22 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively, and the mean mGFR was 56 ± 19 mL/min. Half of the participants were in the lower eGFRcys group (n=337, 51%). Among them, the median bias for eGFRcys was the lowest (median bias, -2.7; 95% CI, -3.8 to -1.9) compared with the other eGFR equations. Conversely, in the lower eGFRcr group (n=121, 18%), the median bias for eGFRcr was the lowest compared with those for eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys (2.9; [95% CI, 0.9-4.8] vs 13.8 [95% CI, 11.4-15.6] and 9.5 [95% CI, 7.7-11.0], respectively). Accuracy (percentage of eGFR values within ±30% of mGFR) was 93% for eGFRcr in the lower eGFRcr group and 92% for eGFRcys and 94% for eGFRcr-cys in the lower eGFRcys group. Limitations: Untested generalizability in younger populations. Conclusions: Among older adults, the lower eGFR between eGFRcys and eGFRcr was a more accurate and less biased estimate of mGFR when comparing the groups.

Association of kidney function and albuminuria with frailty worsening and death in very old adults.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Studies analysing the association of albuminuria and prevalent frailty in community-dwelling very old adults are scarce and lack information on incident frailty. We investigated the association of kidney function decline and increase of albuminuria with frailty worsening or death in very old adults. DESIGN: Longitudinal analyses with biennial visits of the Berlin Initiative (cohort) Study and a frailty follow-up of 2.1 years. SETTING/SUBJECTS: 1,076 participants with a mean age of 84.3 (5.6) years of whom 54% were female. METHODS: Partial proportional odds models were used to assess the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline and/or albuminuria (albumin creatinine ratio, ACR) with frailty worsening or death. RESULTS: At frailty baseline, 1,076 participants with an eGFR of 50 (13) ml/min/1.73 m2, 48% being prefrail and 31% frail were included. After median 2.1 years, 960 (90%) participants had valid information on frailty transition: 187 (17.5%) worsened and 111 (10.3%) died. In the multivariable model, the odds of frailty worsening for participants with albuminuria in combination with eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 were elevated [OR (95% CI): 2.47 (1.41-4.31)] compared to participants without albuminuria and eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 as there was a rapid eGFR decline of ≥3 ml/min/1.73 m2 per year [1.55 (1.04-2.33)] and albuminuria trajectories six years prior [1.53 (1.11-2.10)] to frailty baseline. The odds of death for each exposure were even higher. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, advanced stages of CKD and albuminuria alone were associated with 2-fold odds of frailty worsening independent of death.

[Development of quality indicators for the care of patients with chronic kidney disease : Results of a structured consensus process using the Delphi technique]. / Entwicklung von Qualitätsindikatoren für die Versorgung von Patient:innen mit chronischer Nierenerkrankung : Ergebnisse einer strukturierten Konsensfindung mittels Delphi-Verfahrens.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common condition, especially in the elderly. In order to prevent progression and complications of the disease, guideline-adherent outpatient care of patients with CKD should be prioritized. Quality indicators (QIs) can be used to measure and evaluate the quality of ambulatory care for patients with CKD. QIs specifically made for evaluating CKD care in Germany are not yet available. The goal of this work was to develop QIs for the quality assessment of outpatient care for patients over the age of 70 with CKD not requiring dialysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: QIs were operationalized from the recommendations of the German national guideline for CKD and others were proposed based on a published review of international QIs. The resulting QIs were divided into sets based on routine data (e.g., health insurance billing data) and data collection in practices (chart review). A panel of experts from various disciplines as well as a patient representative evaluated the proposed QIs in a two-stage Delphi process via online survey in October 2021 and January 2022 and a final consensus conference in March 2022. In addition, ranking lists of the most important QIs from each set were created. RESULTS: An incidence indicator and a prevalence indicator were established; these were not subject to vote. Further, 21 QIs were voted upon by the expert panel. The seven most important QIs in each set (billing data or chart review) were selected. Only one QI was rated by the expert panel as not suitable for additional use in adults under the age of 70 years. DISCUSSION: The QIs will enable the evaluation of the quality of outpatient care for patients with CKD with the long-term aim of optimizing guideline-adherent outpatient care.

Polypharmacy and the Change of Self-Rated Health in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

Polypharmacy is associated with poorer self-rated health (SRH). However, whether polypharmacy has an impact on the SRH progression is unknown. This study investigates the association of polypharmacy with SRH change in 1428 participants of the Berlin Initiative Study aged 70 years and older over four years. Polypharmacy was defined as the intake of ≥5 medications. Descriptive statistics of SRH-change categories stratified by polypharmacy status were reported. The association of polypharmacy with being in SRH change categories was assessed using multinomial regression analysis. At baseline, mean age was 79.1 (6.1) years, 54.0% were females, and prevalence of polypharmacy was 47.1%. Participants with polypharmacy were older and had more comorbidities compared to those without polypharmacy. Over four years, five SRH-change categories were identified. After covariate adjustment, individuals with polypharmacy had higher odds of being in the stable moderate category (OR 3.55; 95% CI [2.43-5.20]), stable low category (OR 3.32; 95% CI [1.65-6.70]), decline category (OR 1.87; 95% CI [1.34-2.62]), and improvement category (OR 2.01; [1.33-3.05]) compared to being in the stable high category independent of the number of comorbidities. Reducing polypharmacy could be an impactful strategy to foster favorable SRH progression in old age.

Age and the Course of GFR in Persons Aged 70 and Above.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In older adults, data on the age-related course of GFR are scarce, which might lead to misjudgment of the clinical relevance of reduced GFR in old age. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: To describe the course of eGFR in older adults and derive reference values in population-based individuals, we used the longitudinal design of the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) with a repeated estimation of GFR over a median of 6.1 years of follow-up. In 2069 community-dwelling older individuals (mean inclusion age 80 years, range 70-99), GFR was estimated biennially with the BIS-2 equation, including standardized creatinine and cystatin C levels, sex, and age. We described the crude and adjusted course using a mixed-effects model and analyzed the influence of death on the GFR course applying joint models. GFR slopes were compared using GFR equations on the basis of creatinine and/or cystatin C. RESULTS: We observed a decreasing, thus nonlinear, eGFR decline with increasing age in a population of old adults. The estimated 1-year slope for ages 75 and 90 diminished for men from -1.67 to -0.99 and for women from -1.52 to -0.97. The modeled mean eGFR for men aged ≥79 and women ≥78 was below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Multivariable adjustment attenuated slopes only minimally. Taking death into account by applying joint models did not alter the nonlinear eGFR decline. Using eGFR equations on the basis of creatinine only showed linear slope patterns in contrast to nonlinear patterns for equations including cystatin C. CONCLUSIONS: The eGFR decline depended on sex and age and changed only marginally after multivariable adjustment but decelerated with increasing age. Equations including cystatin C demonstrated a nonlinear slope challenging the previously assumed linearity of the decline of eGFR in old age.

Gender differences in frailty transition and its prediction in community-dwelling old adults.

Frailty is very common in old age and often associated with adverse events. Transitioning between frailty states is possible in both directions (improvement and worsening) offering targets for interventions. Frailty is more prevalent in women, but little is known about the impact of gender on frailty transition. The aim of this study is to identify gender differences for frailty transition in older adults and to develop gender-stratified prognostic prediction models for frailty transition. We performed a longitudinal analyses of the Berlin Initiative (cohort) Study with a frailty follow-up of 2.1 years. Description of frailty transition using the frailty phenotype and development of prognostic prediction models using multivariable logistic regressions for transition (improvement or worsening) stratified by gender following the TRIPOD statement were performed. In total, the study population consisted of 1158 community-dwelling adults with a mean age of 84.4 years and of whom 55% were women. Out of 1158 participants 225 (19%) were robust, 532 (46%) prefrail and 401 (35%) frail. After 2.1 (IQR 2.0-2.3) years, half of the participants had transitioned between frailty states. Men worsened more often and those who were already frail died more often than women. Gender-stratified prediction models for frailty transition demonstrated that some predictors (age, self-rated health, cognitive impairment, baseline frailty status) were included in all models. While stroke, diabetes mellitus, smoking and glomerular filtration rate were unique predictors in the models for females, osteoarthritis, hospitalization and education were predictors in the models for males. There are gender differences in frailty transition rates, patterns and prediction. This supports the importance of considering gender when addressing frailty and targeting interventions in old age.

Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1.

Zinc-alpha 2-glycoprotein (AZGP1) is a serum protein with postulated functions in metabolism, cancer and cardiovascular disease. We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of older adults. We measured AZGP1 (µg/ml) in stored serum samples of 930 individuals of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort of adults aged ≥ 70. We determined the prognostic potential of 20 knowledge-based predictors including AZGP1 for the outcomes of mortality or the composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)) using Cox models; their model fit was evaluated with calibration plots, goodness-of-fit tests and c-indices. During median follow-up of 48.3 months, 70 incident strokes, 38 incident MI and 234 deaths occurred. We found no associations or correlations between AZGP1 and other candidate variables. After multivariable Cox regression with backward-selection AZGP1 remained in both models for mortality (HR = 0.44, 95%CI: 0.24-0.80) and for the composite endpoint (HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.23-0.82). Within newly built prediction models, we found that increased AZGP1 levels were predictive for lower risk of mortality and the composite endpoint in older adults. AZGP1 as a predictor warrants further validation in older adults.

Control of blood pressure in older patients with heart failure and the risk of mortality: a population-based prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: treatment goals for blood pressure (BP) lowering in older patients with heart failure (HF) are unclear. OBJECTIVE: to assess whether BP control < 140/90 mmHg is associated with a decreased risk of mortality in older HF patients. DESIGN: population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING/SUBJECTS: participants of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective cohort of community-dwelling older adults launched in 2009. Clinical information was obtained in face-to-face interviews and linked to administrative healthcare data. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality associated with normalised BP (systolic BP < 140 mmHg and diastolic BP < 90 mmHg) compared with non-normalised BP (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) in HF patients. The primary analysis considered only baseline BP ('time-fixed'); an additional analysis updated BP during follow-up ('time-dependent'). RESULTS: at baseline, 544 patients were diagnosed with HF and treated with antihypertensive drugs (mean age 82.8 years; 45.4% female). During a median follow-up of 7.5 years and compared with non-normalised BP, normalised BP was associated with similar risks of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.84-1.85) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.89-1.51) in the time-fixed analysis but with increased risks of cardiovascular death (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.23-2.61) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.15-1.90) in the time-dependent analysis. CONCLUSIONS: BP control < 140/90 mmHg was not associated with a decreased risk of mortality in older HF patients. The increased risk in the time-dependent analysis requires further corroboration.

Kidney Function as Risk Factor and Predictor of Cardiovascular Outcomes and Mortality Among Older Adults.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) are associated with cardiovascular events in the general population but their utility among older adults is unclear. We investigated the associations of eGFR and UACR with stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and death among older adults. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,581 participants (aged≥70 years) in the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS) without prior stroke or MI. EXPOSURES & PREDICTORS: Serum creatinine- and cystatin C-based eGFR, UACR categories, and measured GFR (n=436). OUTCOMES: Stroke, MI, and all-cause mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: HRs and 95% CIs derived from multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models for association analyses. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and C statistic differences comparing the predictive benefit of kidney measures with a traditional cardiovascular risk model. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.2 years, 193 strokes, 125 MIs, and 531 deaths occurred. Independent of UACR, when GFR was estimated using the creatinine- and cystatin C-based BIS equation, eGFR of 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m2 (vs eGFR>60mL/min/1.73m2) was associated with stroke (HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.55-3.21) but not MI or all-cause mortality. For those with eGFR<45mL/min/1.73m2, the HRs were 1.99 (95% CI, 1.23-3.20) for stroke, 1.38 (95% CI, 0.81-2.36) for MI, and 1.57 (95% CI, 1.20-2.06) for mortality. Compared with UACR<30mg/g, UACR of 30 to 300mg/g was not associated with stroke (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.63-1.33) but was associated with MI (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.51) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.34-1.98). Prediction analysis for stroke showed significant positive NRI for eGFR calculated using the cystatin C-based Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and the creatinine- and cystatin C-based BIS and Full Age Spectrum equations. UACR demonstrated significant positive NRIs for MI and mortality. LIMITATIONS: eGFR and UACR categorization based on single assessments; lack of cause-specific death data. CONCLUSIONS: eGFR of 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m2 without albuminuria was associated with stroke but not MI or all-cause mortality in older adults. In contrast, UACR of 30 to 300mg/g was associated with MI and all-cause mortality but not with stroke. Furthermore, cystatin C-based eGFR improved risk prediction for stroke in this cohort of older adults.

Correction: Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231097.].

Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal.

BACKGROUND: European guidelines recommend the use of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to assess 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events in people aged 40 to 65. The SCORE Older Persons (SCORE OP, 5-year and 10-year versions) was recently developed for people aged 65 or older. We assessed the performance of these risk scores in predicting fatal cardiovascular events in older persons in Berlin. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective, population-based study of older persons recruited from a German public health insurance company database were used. 1,657 participants aged 70 or older without reported previous myocardial infarction were included. We assessed calibration by comparing predicted risks to observed (for 5-year versions, 5y) or projected (for 10-year versions) probabilities. During follow-up (median: 4.8 years), 118 cardiovascular deaths occurred. The calibration assessment of the SCORE OP-H 5y and SCORE OP-L 5y equations revealed 2.1- and 1.5-fold overestimation. Comparing 10-year versions, the SCORE OP showed better discrimination ability compared to the SCORE (C-indices of around 0.80 compared to 0.72) and the SCORE for high-risk regions showed the best calibration (chi-square = 29.68). The SCORE OP overestimated the true risk; 519 and 677 events were predicted using the low-risk and high-risk region SCORE OP equations compared to 397 to 399 events projected based on BIS follow-up data (predicted/actual ratios of 1.3 and 1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Given the low transportability of the SCORE OP observed in our population, we caution against its use in routine clinical practice until further information is available to avoid possible overtreatment among older persons in Berlin.

Self-reported medication in community-dwelling older adults in Germany: results from the Berlin Initiative Study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults have the highest drug utilization due to multimorbidity. Although the number of people over age 70 is expected to double within the next decades, population-based data on their medication patterns are scarce especially in combination with polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication (PIM). Our objective was to analyse the frequency of polypharmacy, pattern of prescription (PD) and over-the-counter (OTC) drug usage, and PIMs according to age and gender in a population-based cohort of very old adults in Germany. METHODS: Cross-sectional baseline data of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults aged ≥70 years with a standardized interview including demographics, lifestyle variables, co-morbidities, and medication assessment were analysed. Medication data were coded using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification. Age- and sex-standardized descriptive analysis of polypharmacy (≥5 drugs, PD and OTC vs. PD only and regular and on demand drugs vs regular only), medication frequency and distribution, including PIMs, was performed by age (

Author Correction: Beta Trace Protein does not outperform Creatinine and Cystatin C in estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Older Adults.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Control of blood pressure and risk of mortality in a cohort of older adults: the Berlin Initiative Study.

AIMS: To assess whether blood pressure (BP) values below 140/90 mmHg during antihypertensive treatment are associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within the Berlin Initiative Study, we assembled a cohort of patients ≥70 years treated with antihypertensive drugs at baseline (November 2009-June 2011). End of prospective follow-up was December 2016. Cox proportional hazards models yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause mortality associated with normalized BP [systolic BP (SBP) <140 mmHg and diastolic BP (DBP) <90 mmHg] compared with non-normalized BP (SBP ≥140 mmHg or DBP ≥90 mmHg) overall and after stratification by age or previous cardiovascular events. Among 1628 patients (mean age 81 years) on antihypertensive drugs, 636 exhibited normalized BP. During 8853 person-years of follow-up, 469 patients died. Compared with non-normalized BP, normalized BP was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (incidence rates: 60.3 vs. 48.5 per 1000/year; HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.04-1.54). Increased risks were observed in patients ≥80 years (102.2 vs. 77.5 per 1000/year; HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.12-1.74) and with previous cardiovascular events (98.3 vs. 63.6 per 1000/year; HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.14-2.27) but not in patients aged 70-79 years (22.6 vs. 22.7 per 1000/year; HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.54-1.27) or without previous cardiovascular events (45.2 vs. 44.4 per 1000/year; HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.90-1.48). CONCLUSION: Blood pressure values below 140/90 mmHg during antihypertensive treatment may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in octogenarians or elderly patients with previous cardiovascular events.