Using the global randomization test as a Mendelian randomization falsification test for the exclusion restriction assumption.

Mendelian randomization may give biased causal estimates if the instrument affects the outcome not solely via the exposure of interest (violating the exclusion restriction assumption). We demonstrate use of a global randomization test as a falsification test for the exclusion restriction assumption. Using simulations, we explored the statistical power of the randomization test to detect an association between a genetic instrument and a covariate set due to (a) selection bias or (b) horizontal pleiotropy, compared to three approaches examining associations with individual covariates: (i) Bonferroni correction for the number of covariates, (ii) correction for the effective number of independent covariates, and (iii) an r2 permutation-based approach. We conducted proof-of-principle analyses in UK Biobank, using CRP as the exposure and coronary heart disease (CHD) as the outcome. In simulations, power of the randomization test was higher than the other approaches for detecting selection bias when the correlation between the covariates was low (r2 < 0.1), and at least as powerful as the other approaches across all simulated horizontal pleiotropy scenarios. In our applied example, we found strong evidence of selection bias using all approaches (e.g., global randomization test p < 0.002). We identified 51 of the 58 CRP genetic variants as horizontally pleiotropic, and estimated effects of CRP on CHD attenuated somewhat to the null when excluding these from the genetic risk score (OR = 0.96 [95% CI: 0.92, 1.00] versus 0.97 [95% CI: 0.90, 1.05] per 1-unit higher log CRP levels). The global randomization test can be a useful addition to the MR researcher's toolkit.

Accelerometer-measured 24-hour movement behaviours over 7 days in Malaysian children and adolescents: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying movement behaviours over 24-hours enables the combined effects of and inter-relations between sleep, sedentary time and physical activity (PA) to be understood. This is the first study describing 24-hour movement behaviours in school-aged children and adolescents in South-East Asia. Further aims were to investigate between-participant differences in movement behaviours by demographic characteristics and timing of data collection during Ramadan and COVID-19 restrictions. METHODS: Data came from the South-East Asia Community Observatory health surveillance cohort, 2021-2022. Children aged 7-18 years within selected households in Segamat, Malaysia wore an Axivity AX6 accelerometer on their wrist for 24 hours/day over 7 days, completed the PAQ-C questionnaire, and demographic information was obtained. Accelerometer data was processed using GGIR to determine time spent asleep, inactive, in light-intensity PA (LPA) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). Differences in accelerometer-measured PA by demographic characteristics (sex, age, ethnicity, socioeconomic group) were explored using univariate linear regression. Differences between data collected during vs outside Ramadan or during vs after COVID-19 restrictions, were investigated through univariate and multiple linear regressions, adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: The 491 participants providing accelerometer data spent 8.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.9-8.4) hours/day asleep, 12.4 (95% CI = 12.2-12.7) hours/day inactive, 2.8 (95% CI = 2.7-2.9) hours/day in LPA, and 33.0 (95% CI = 31.0-35.1) minutes/day in MVPA. Greater PA and less time inactive were observed in boys vs girls, children vs adolescents, Indian and Chinese vs Malay children and higher income vs lower income households. Data collection during Ramadan or during COVID-19 restrictions were not associated with MVPA engagement after adjustment for demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic characteristics remained the strongest correlates of accelerometer-measured 24-hour movement behaviours in Malaysian children and adolescents. Future studies should seek to understand why predominantly girls, adolescents and children from Malay ethnicities have particularly low movement behaviours within Malaysia.

Predicting clozapine dose required to achieve a therapeutic plasma concentration - A comparison of a population algorithm and three algorithms based on gene variant models.

BACKGROUND: Clozapine is the most effective antipsychotic but requires careful titration to therapeutic blood levels. Methods to predict therapeutic doses are based on population data. AIMS: We aimed to construct a model based on genetic variants which accurately predicted plasma levels for clozapine. METHOD: We measured clozapine plasma levels in patients on a stable dose of clozapine who were known to be fully compliant. Measured plasma levels were adjusted for sampling time and dose. Hepatic enzyme variants were analysed and models were constructed to predict the required dose. These predictions were compared with a standard population-based algorithm. RESULTS: We measured plasma clozapine concentrations in 18 adherent patients on stable doses of clozapine and recorded the exact timing of sampling. For the algorithm-predicted dose, the mean difference was -49.9 mg/day ((SD 155.9), r = 0.36) from the actual dose required to give a plasma concentration of 0.35 ng/ml. The gene variant activity score predicted a dose for which the mean difference was -43.5 mg/day ((SD 140.1), r = 0.55). For the gene variant activity score with omeprazole correction predicted dose, the mean difference was -31.0 mg/day ((SD 140.8), r = 0.54), and with the gene variant CYP1A2 inducibility predicted dose the mean difference was 44.9 mg/day ((SD 160.8), r = 0.32). CONCLUSION: Our gene variant activity score with omeprazole correction gave the best estimate of the clozapine dose required to achieve a minimum therapeutic plasma concentration. The use of this model will allow safer titration of clozapine and may reduce the need for plasma-level monitoring during titration.

Exploring regression dilution bias using repeat measurements of 2858 variables in ≤49 000 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Measurement error in exposures and confounders can bias exposure-outcome associations but is rarely considered. We aimed to assess random measurement error of all continuous variables in UK Biobank and explore approaches to mitigate its impact on exposure-outcome associations. METHODS: Random measurement error was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for all continuous variables with repeat measures. Regression calibration was used to correct for random error in exposures and confounders, using the associations of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), C-reactive protein (CRP) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with mortality as illustrative examples. RESULTS: The 2858 continuous variables with repeat measures varied in sample size from 109 to 49 121. They fell into three groups: (i) baseline visit [529 variables; median (interquartile range) ICC = 0.64 (0.57, 0.83)]; (ii) online diet by 24-h recall [22 variables; 0.35 (0.30, 0.40)] and (iii) imaging measures [2307 variables; 0.85 (0.73, 0.94)]. Highest ICCs were for anthropometric and medical history measures, and lowest for dietary and heart magnetic resonance imaging.The ICCs (95% confidence interval) for RDW, CRP and 25(OH)D were 0.52 (0.51, 0.53), 0.29 (0.27, 0.30) and 0.55 (0.54, 0.56), respectively. Higher RDW and levels of CRP were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, and higher concentration of 25(OH)D with lower risk. After correction for random measurement error in the main exposure, the associations all strengthened. Confounder correction did not influence estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Random measurement error varies widely and is often non-negligible. For UK Biobank we provide relevant statistics and adaptable code to help other researchers explore and correct for this.

Identifying the potential causal role of insomnia symptoms on 11,409 health-related outcomes: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Insomnia symptoms are widespread in the population and might have effects on many chronic conditions and their risk factors but previous research has focused on select hypothesised associations/effects rather than taking a systematic hypothesis-free approach across many health outcomes. METHODS: We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in 336,975 unrelated white-British UK Biobank participants. Self-reported insomnia symptoms were instrumented by a genetic risk score (GRS) created from 129 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A total of 11,409 outcomes from UK Biobank were extracted and processed by an automated pipeline (PHESANT) for the MR-PheWAS. Potential causal effects (those passing a Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold) were followed up with two-sample MR in MR-Base, where possible. RESULTS: Four hundred thirty-seven potential causal effects of insomnia symptoms were observed for a diverse range of outcomes, including anxiety, depression, pain, body composition, respiratory, musculoskeletal and cardiovascular traits. We were able to undertake two-sample MR for 71 of these 437 and found evidence of causal effects (with directionally concordant effect estimates across main and sensitivity analyses) for 30 of these. These included novel findings (by which we mean not extensively explored in conventional observational studies and not previously explored using MR based on a systematic search) of an adverse effect on risk of spondylosis (OR [95%CI] = 1.55 [1.33, 1.81]) and bronchitis (OR [95%CI] = 1.12 [1.03, 1.22]), among others. CONCLUSIONS: Insomnia symptoms potentially cause a wide range of adverse health-related outcomes and behaviours. This has implications for developing interventions to prevent and treat a number of diseases in order to reduce multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy.

Collecting Food and Drink Intake Data With Voice Input: Development, Usability, and Acceptability Study.

BACKGROUND: Voice-based systems such as Amazon Alexa may be useful for collecting self-reported information in real time from participants of epidemiology studies using verbal input. In epidemiological research studies, self-reported data tend to be collected using short, infrequent questionnaires, in which the items require participants to select from predefined options, which may lead to errors in the information collected and lack of coverage. Voice-based systems give the potential to collect self-reported information "continuously" over several days or weeks. At present, to the best of our knowledge, voice-based systems have not been used or evaluated for collecting epidemiological data. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to demonstrate the technical feasibility of using Alexa to collect information from participants, investigate participant acceptability, and provide an initial evaluation of the validity of the collected data. We used food and drink information as an exemplar. METHODS: We recruited 45 staff members and students at the University of Bristol (United Kingdom). Participants were asked to tell Alexa what they ate or drank for 7 days and to also submit this information using a web-based form. Questionnaires asked for basic demographic information, about their experience during the study, and the acceptability of using Alexa. RESULTS: Of the 37 participants with valid data, most (n=30, 81%) were aged 20 to 39 years and 23 (62%) were female. Across 29 participants with Alexa and web entries corresponding to the same intake event, 60.1% (357/588) of Alexa entries contained the same food and drink information as the corresponding web entry. Most participants reported that Alexa interjected, and this was worse when entering the food and drink information (17/35, 49% of participants said this happened often; 1/35, 3% said this happened always) than when entering the event date and time (6/35, 17% of participants said this happened often; 1/35, 3% said this happened always). Most (28/35, 80%) said they would be happy to use a voice-controlled system for future research. CONCLUSIONS: Although there were some issues interacting with the Alexa skill, largely because of its conversational nature and because Alexa interjected if there was a pause in speech, participants were mostly willing to participate in future research studies using Alexa. More studies are needed, especially to trial less conversational interfaces.

Exploring the impact of selection bias in observational studies of COVID-19: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Non-random selection of analytic subsamples could introduce selection bias in observational studies. We explored the potential presence and impact of selection in studies of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 prognosis. METHODS: We tested the association of a broad range of characteristics with selection into COVID-19 analytic subsamples in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and UK Biobank (UKB). We then conducted empirical analyses and simulations to explore the potential presence, direction and magnitude of bias due to this selection (relative to our defined UK-based adult target populations) when estimating the association of body mass index (BMI) with SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19. RESULTS: In both cohorts, a broad range of characteristics was related to selection, sometimes in opposite directions (e.g. more-educated people were more likely to have data on SARS-CoV-2 infection in ALSPAC, but less likely in UKB). Higher BMI was associated with higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection and death-with-COVID-19. We found non-negligible bias in many simulated scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses using COVID-19 self-reported or national registry data may be biased due to selection. The magnitude and direction of this bias depend on the outcome definition, the true effect of the risk factor and the assumed selection mechanism; these are likely to differ between studies with different target populations. Bias due to sample selection is a key concern in COVID-19 research based on national registry data, especially as countries end free mass testing. The framework we have used can be applied by other researchers assessing the extent to which their results may be biased for their research question of interest.

The causes and consequences of Alzheimer's disease: phenome-wide evidence from Mendelian randomization.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) has no proven causal and modifiable risk factors, or effective interventions. We report a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of genetic liability for AD in 334,968 participants of the UK Biobank study, stratified by age. We also examined the effects of AD genetic liability on previously implicated risk factors. We replicated these analyses in the HUNT study. PheWAS hits and previously implicated risk factors were followed up in a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to identify the causal effect of each risk factor on AD risk. A higher genetic liability for AD was associated with medical history and cognitive, lifestyle, physical and blood-based measures as early as 39 years of age. These effects were largely driven by the APOE gene. The follow-up MR analyses were primarily null, implying that most of these associations are likely to be a consequence of prodromal disease or selection bias, rather than the risk factor causing the disease.

Correction: Association of physical activity intensity and bout length with mortality: An observational study of 79,503 UK Biobank participants.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003757.].

The clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of clozapine for inpatients with severe borderline personality disorder (CALMED study): a randomised placebo-controlled trial.

Background: Data from case series suggest that clozapine may benefit inpatients with borderline personality disorder (BPD), but randomised trials have not been conducted. Methods: Multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. We aimed to recruit 222 inpatients with severe BPD aged 18 or over, who had failed to respond to other antipsychotic medications. We randomly allocated participants on a 1:1 ratio to receive up to 400 mg of clozapine per day or an inert placebo using a remote web-based randomisation service. The primary outcome was total score on the Zanarini Rating scale for Borderline Personality Disorder (ZAN-BPD) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included self-harm, aggression, resource use and costs, side effects and adverse events. We used a modified intention to treat analysis (mITT) restricted to those who took one or more dose of trial medication, using a general linear model fitted at 6 months adjusted for baseline score, allocation group and site. Results: The study closed early due to poor recruitment and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Of 29 study participants, 24 (83%) were followed up at 6 months, of whom 21 (72%) were included in the mITT analysis. At 6 months, 11 (73%) participants assigned to clozapine and 6 (43%) of those assigned to placebo were still taking trial medication. Adjusted difference in mean total ZAN-BPD score at 6 months was -3.86 (95% Confidence Intervals = -10.04 to 2.32). There were 14 serious adverse events; 6 in the clozapine arm and 8 in the placebo arm of the trial. There was little difference in the cost of care between groups. Interpretation: We recruited insufficient participants to test the primary hypothesis. The study findings highlight problems in conducting placebo-controlled trials of clozapine and in using clozapine for people with BPD, outside specialist inpatient mental health units. Trial registration: ISRCTN18352058. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN18352058.

Association of physical activity intensity and bout length with mortality: An observational study of 79,503 UK Biobank participants.

BACKGROUND: Spending more time active (and less sedentary) is associated with health benefits such as improved cardiovascular health and lower risk of all-cause mortality. It is unclear whether these associations differ depending on whether time spent sedentary or in moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is accumulated in long or short bouts. In this study, we used a novel method that accounts for substitution (i.e., more time in MVPA means less time sleeping, in light activity or sedentary) to examine whether length of sedentary and MVPA bouts associates with all-cause mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data on 79,503 adult participants from the population-based UK Biobank cohort, which recruited participants between 2006 and 2010 (mean age at accelerometer wear 62.1 years [SD = 7.9], 54.5% women; mean length of follow-up 5.1 years [SD = 0.73]). We derived (1) the total time participants spent in activity categories-sleep, sedentary, light activity, and MVPA-on average per day; (2) time spent in sedentary bouts of short (1 to 15 minutes), medium (16 to 40 minutes), and long (41+ minutes) duration; and (3) MVPA bouts of very short (1 to 9 minutes), short (10 to 15 minutes), medium (16 to 40 minutes), and long (41+ minutes) duration. We used Cox proportion hazards regression to estimate the association of spending 10 minutes more average daily time in one activity or bout length category, coupled with 10 minutes less time in another, with all-cause mortality. Those spending more time in MVPA had lower mortality risk, irrespective of whether this replaced time spent sleeping, sedentary, or in light activity, and these associations were of similar magnitude (e.g., hazard ratio [HR] 0.96 [95% CI: 0.94, 0.97; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more MVPA, coupled with 10 minutes less light activity per day). Those spending more time sedentary had higher mortality risk if this replaced light activity (HR 1.02 [95% CI: 1.01, 1.02; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more sedentary time, with 10 minutes less light activity per day) and an even higher risk if this replaced MVPA (HR 1.06 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.08; P < 0.001] per 10 minutes more sedentary time, with 10 minutes less MVPA per day). We found little evidence that mortality risk differed depending on the length of sedentary or MVPA bouts. Key limitations of our study are potential residual confounding, the limited length of follow-up, and use of a select sample of the United Kingdom population. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that time spent in MVPA was associated with lower mortality, irrespective of whether it replaced time spent sleeping, sedentary, or in light activity. Time spent sedentary was associated with higher mortality risk, particularly if it replaced MVPA. This emphasises the specific importance of MVPA. Our findings suggest that the impact of MVPA does not differ depending on whether it is obtained from several short bouts or fewer longer bouts, supporting the recent removal of the requirement that MVPA should be accumulated in bouts of 10 minutes or more from the UK and the United States policy. Further studies are needed to investigate causality and explore health outcomes beyond mortality.

Bias from questionnaire invitation and response in COVID-19 research: an example using ALSPAC.

Background: Longitudinal studies are crucial for identifying potential risk factors for infection with, and consequences of, COVID-19, but relationships can be biased if they are associated with invitation and response to data collection. We describe factors relating to questionnaire invitation and response in COVID-19 questionnaire data collection in a multigenerational birth cohort (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, ALSPAC). Methods: We analysed online questionnaires completed between the beginning of the pandemic and easing of the first UK lockdown by participants with valid email addresses who had not actively disengaged from the study. We assessed associations of pre-pandemic sociodemographic, behavioural, anthropometric and health-related factors with: i) being sent a questionnaire; ii) returning a questionnaire; and iii) item response (for specific questions). Analyses were conducted in three cohorts: the index children born in the early 1990s (now young adults; 41 variables assessed), their mothers (35 variables) and the mothers' partners (27 variables). Results: Of 14,849 young adults, 41% were sent a questionnaire, of whom 57% returned one. Item response was >95%. In this cohort, 78% of factors were associated with being sent a questionnaire, 56% with returning one, and, as an example of item response, 20% with keyworker status response. For instance, children from mothers educated to degree-level had greater odds of being sent a questionnaire (OR=5.59; 95% CI=4.87-6.41), returning one (OR=1.60; 95% CI=1.31-1.95), and responding to items (e.g., keyworker status OR=1.65; 95% CI=0.88-3.04), relative to children from mothers with fewer qualifications. Invitation and response rates and associations were similar in all cohorts. Conclusions: These results highlight the importance of considering potential biases due to non-response when using longitudinal studies in COVID-19 research and interpreting results. We recommend researchers report response rates and factors associated with invitation and response in all COVID-19 observational research studies, which can inform sensitivity analyses.

GLU: a software package for analysing continuously measured glucose levels in epidemiology.

Continuous glucose monitors (CGM) record interstitial glucose levels 'continuously', producing a sequence of measurements for each participant (e.g. the average glucose level every 5 min over several days, both day and night). To analyse these data, researchers tend to derive summary variables such as the area under the curve (AUC), to then use in subsequent analyses. To date, a lack of consistency and transparency of precise definitions used for these summary variables has hindered interpretation, replication and comparison of results across studies. We present GLU, an open-source software package for deriving a consistent set of summary variables from CGM data. GLU performs quality control of each CGM sample (e.g. addressing missing data), derives a diverse set of summary variables (e.g. AUC and proportion of time spent in hypo-, normo- and hyper- glycaemic levels) covering six broad domains, and outputs these (with quality control information) to the user. GLU is implemented in R and is available on GitHub at https://github.com/MRCIEU/GLU. Git tag v0.2 corresponds to the version presented here.

Impact of sex hormone-binding globulin on the human phenome.

BACKGROUND: Sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is a circulating glycoprotein and a regulator of sex hormone levels, which has been shown to influence various traits and diseases. The molecular nature of SHBG makes it a feasible target for preventative or therapeutic interventions. A systematic study of its effects across the human phenome may uncover novel associations. METHODS: We used a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) approach to systematically appraise the potential functions of SHBG while reducing potential biases such as confounding and reverse causation common to the literature. We searched for potential causal effects of SHBG in UK Biobank (N = 334 977) and followed-up our top findings using two-sample MR analyses to evaluate whether estimates may be biased due to horizontal pleiotropy. RESULTS: Results of the MR-pheWAS across over 21 000 outcome phenotypes identified 12 phenotypes associated with genetically elevated SHBG after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing. Follow-up analysis using two-sample MR indicated the associations of increased natural log SHBG with higher impedance of the arms and whole body, lower pulse rate, lower bone density, higher odds of hip replacement, lower odds of high cholesterol or cholesterol medication use and higher odds of gallbladder removal. CONCLUSIONS: Our systematic MR-pheWAS of SHBG, which was comprehensive to the range of phenotypes available in UK Biobank, suggested that higher circulating SHBG affects the body impedance, bone density and cholesterol levels, among others. These phenotypes should be prioritized in future studies aiming to investigate the biological effects of SHBG or develop targets for therapeutic intervention.

A cross-disorder PRS-pheWAS of 5 major psychiatric disorders in UK Biobank.

Psychiatric disorders are highly heritable and associated with a wide variety of social adversity and physical health problems. Using genetic liability (rather than phenotypic measures of disease) as a proxy for psychiatric disease risk can be a useful alternative for research questions that would traditionally require large cohort studies with long-term follow up. Here we conducted a hypothesis-free phenome-wide association study in about 330,000 participants from the UK Biobank to examine associations of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for five psychiatric disorders (major depression (MDD), bipolar disorder (BP), schizophrenia (SCZ), attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD)) with 23,004 outcomes in UK Biobank, using the open-source PHESANT software package. There was evidence after multiple testing (p<2.55x10-06) for associations of PRSs with 294 outcomes, most of them attributed to associations of PRSMDD (n = 167) and PRSSCZ (n = 157) with mental health factors. Among others, we found strong evidence of association of higher PRSADHD with 1.1 months younger age at first sexual intercourse [95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.25,-0.92] and a history of physical maltreatment; PRSASD with 0.01% lower erythrocyte distribution width [95%CI: -0.013,-0.007]; PRSSCZ with 0.95 lower odds of playing computer games [95%CI:0.95,0.96]; PRSMDD with a 0.12 points higher neuroticism score [95%CI:0.111,0.135] and PRSBP with 1.03 higher odds of having a university degree [95%CI:1.02,1.03]. We were able to show that genetic liabilities for five major psychiatric disorders associate with long-term aspects of adult life, including socio-demographic factors, mental and physical health. This is evident even in individuals from the general population who do not necessarily present with a psychiatric disorder diagnosis.

Identifying potential causal effects of age at menarche: a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Age at menarche has been associated with various health outcomes. We aimed to identify potential causal effects of age at menarche on health-related traits in a hypothesis-free manner. METHODS: We conducted a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) of age at menarche with 17,893 health-related traits in UK Biobank (n = 181,318) using PHESANT. The exposure of interest was the genetic risk score for age at menarche. We conducted a second MR-pheWAS after excluding SNPs associated with BMI from the genetic risk score, to examine whether results might be due to the genetic overlap between age at menarche and BMI. We followed up a subset of health-related traits to investigate MR assumptions and seek replication in independent study populations. RESULTS: Of the 17,893 tests performed in our MR-pheWAS, we identified 619 associations with the genetic risk score for age at menarche at a 5% false discovery rate threshold, of which 295 were below a Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold. These included potential effects of younger age at menarche on lower lung function, higher heel bone-mineral density, greater burden of psychosocial/mental health problems, younger age at first birth, higher risk of childhood sexual abuse, poorer cardiometabolic health, and lower physical activity. After exclusion of variants associated with BMI, the genetic risk score for age at menarche was related to 37 traits at a 5% false discovery rate, of which 29 were below a Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold. We attempted to replicate findings for bone-mineral density, lung function, neuroticism, and childhood sexual abuse using 5 independent cohorts/consortia. While estimates for lung function, higher bone-mineral density, neuroticism, and childhood sexual abuse in replication cohorts were consistent with UK Biobank estimates, confidence intervals were wide and often included the null. CONCLUSIONS: The genetic risk score for age at menarche was related to a broad range of health-related traits. Follow-up analyses indicated imprecise evidence of an effect of younger age at menarche on greater bone-mineral density, lower lung function, higher neuroticism score, and greater risk of childhood sexual abuse in the smaller replication samples available; hence, these findings need further exploration when larger independent samples become available.

Proxy gene-by-environment Mendelian randomization study confirms a causal effect of maternal smoking on offspring birthweight, but little evidence of long-term influences on offspring health.

BACKGROUND: A lack of genetic data across generations makes transgenerational Mendelian randomization (MR) difficult. We used UK Biobank and a novel proxy gene-by-environment MR to investigate effects of maternal smoking heaviness in pregnancy on offspring health, using participants' (generation one: G1) genotype (rs16969968 in CHRNA5) as a proxy for their mothers' (G0) genotype. METHODS: We validated this approach by replicating an established effect of maternal smoking heaviness on offspring birthweight. Then we applied this approach to explore effects of maternal (G0) smoking heaviness on offspring (G1) later life outcomes and on birthweight of G1 women's children (G2). RESULTS: Each additional smoking-increasing allele in offspring (G1) was associated with a 0.018 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.026, -0.009] kg lower G1 birthweight in maternal (G0) smoking stratum, but no meaningful effect (-0.002 kg; 95% CI: -0.008, 0.003) in maternal non-smoking stratum (interaction P-value = 0.004). The differences in associations of rs16969968 with grandchild's (G2) birthweight between grandmothers (G0) who did, versus did not, smoke were heterogeneous (interaction P-value = 0.042) among mothers (G1) who did (-0.020 kg/allele; 95% CI: -0.044, 0.003), versus did not (0.007 kg/allele; 95% CI: -0.005, 0.020), smoke in pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated how offspring genotype can be used to proxy for the mother's genotype in gene-by-environment MR. We confirmed the causal effect of maternal (G0) smoking on offspring (G1) birthweight, but found little evidence of an effect on G1 longer-term health outcomes. For grandchild's (G2) birthweight, the effect of grandmother's (G0) smoking heaviness in pregnancy may be modulated by maternal (G1) smoking status in pregnancy.

MR-pheWAS with stratification and interaction: Searching for the causal effects of smoking heaviness identified an effect on facial aging.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an established approach to evaluate the effect of an exposure on an outcome. The gene-by-environment (GxE) study design can be used to determine whether the genetic instrument affects the outcome through pathways other than via the exposure of interest (horizontal pleiotropy). MR phenome-wide association studies (MR-pheWAS) search for the effects of an exposure, and can be conducted in UK Biobank using the PHESANT package. In this proof-of-principle study, we introduce the novel GxE MR-pheWAS approach, that combines MR-pheWAS with the use of GxE interactions. This method aims to identify the presence of effects of an exposure while simultaneously investigating horizontal pleiotropy. We systematically test for the presence of causal effects of smoking heaviness-stratifying on smoking status (ever versus never)-as an exemplar. If a genetic variant is associated with smoking heaviness (but not smoking initiation), and this variant affects an outcome (at least partially) via tobacco intake, we would expect the effect of the variant on the outcome to differ in ever versus never smokers. We used PHESANT to test for the presence of effects of smoking heaviness, instrumented by genetic variant rs16969968, among never and ever smokers respectively, in UK Biobank. We ranked results by the strength of interaction between ever and never smokers. We replicated previously established effects of smoking heaviness, including detrimental effects on lung function. Novel results included a detrimental effect of heavier smoking on facial aging. We have demonstrated how GxE MR-pheWAS can be used to identify potential effects of an exposure, while simultaneously assessing whether results may be biased by horizontal pleiotropy.

Searching for the causal effects of body mass index in over 300 000 participants in UK Biobank, using Mendelian randomization.

Mendelian randomization (MR) has been used to estimate the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on particular traits thought to be affected by BMI. However, BMI may also be a modifiable, causal risk factor for outcomes where there is no prior reason to suggest that a causal effect exists. We performed a MR phenome-wide association study (MR-pheWAS) to search for the causal effects of BMI in UK Biobank (n = 334 968), using the PHESANT open-source phenome scan tool. A subset of identified associations were followed up with a formal two-stage instrumental variable analysis in UK Biobank, to estimate the causal effect of BMI on these phenotypes. Of the 22 922 tests performed, our MR-pheWAS identified 587 associations below a stringent P value threshold corresponding to a 5% estimated false discovery rate. These included many previously identified causal effects, for instance, an adverse effect of higher BMI on risk of diabetes and hypertension. We also identified several novel effects, including protective effects of higher BMI on a set of psychosocial traits, identified initially in our preliminary MR-pheWAS in circa 115,000 UK Biobank participants and replicated in a different subset of circa 223,000 UK Biobank participants. Our comprehensive MR-pheWAS identified potential causal effects of BMI on a large and diverse set of phenotypes. This included both previously identified causal effects, and novel effects such as a protective effect of higher BMI on feelings of nervousness.

The second generation of The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC-G2): a cohort profile.

Background: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children-Generation 2 (ALSPAC-G2) was set up to provide a unique multi-generational cohort. It builds on the existing ALSPAC resource, which recruited 14,541 pregnancies to women resident in the South West of England who were expected to deliver between 01/04/1991 and 31/12/1992. Those women and their partners (Generation 0; ALSPAC-G0) and their offspring (ALSPAC-G1) have been followed for the last 26 years. This profile describes recruitment and data collection on the next generation (ALSPAC-G2)-the grandchildren of ALSPAC-G0 and children of ALSPAC-G1. Recruitment: Recruitment began on the 6 th of June 2012 and we present details of recruitment and participants up to 30 th June 2018 (~6 years). We knew at the start of recruitment that some ALSPAC-G1 participants had already become parents and ALSPAC-G2 is an open cohort; we recruit at any age. We hope to continue recruiting until all ALSPAC-G1 participants have completed their families. Up to 30 th June 2018 we recruited 810 ALSPAC-G2 participants from 548 families. Of these 810, 389 (48%) were recruited during their mother's pregnancy, 287 (35%) before age 3 years, 104 (13%) between 3-6 years and 30 (4%) after 6 years. Over 70% of those invited to early pregnancy, late pregnancy, second week of life, 6-, 12- and 24-month assessments (whether for their recruitment, or a follow-up, visit) have attended, with attendance being over 60% for subsequent visits up to 7 years (to few are eligible for the 9- and 11-year assessments to analyse). Data collection: We collect a wide-range of social, lifestyle, clinical, anthropometric and biological data on all family members repeatedly. Biological samples include blood (including cord-blood), urine, meconium and faeces, and placental tissue. In subgroups detailed data collection, such as continuous glucose monitoring and videos of parent-child interactions, are being collected.