A biosocial analysis of perinatal and late neonatal mortality among Indigenous Maya Kaqchikel communities in Tecpán, Guatemala: a mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: Neonatal mortality is a global public health challenge. Guatemala has the fifth highest neonatal mortality rate in Latin America, and Indigenous communities are particularly impacted. This study aims to understand factors driving neonatal mortality rates among Maya Kaqchikel communities. METHODS: We used sequential explanatory mixed methods. The quantitative phase was a secondary analysis of 2014-2016 data from the Global Maternal and Newborn Health Registry from Chimaltenango, Guatemala. Multivariate logistic regression models identified factors associated with perinatal and late neonatal mortality. A number of 33 in-depth interviews were conducted with mothers, traditional Maya midwives and local healthcare professionals to explain quantitative findings. RESULTS: Of 33 759 observations, 351 were lost to follow-up. There were 32 559 live births, 670 stillbirths (20/1000 births), 1265 (38/1000 births) perinatal deaths and 409 (12/1000 live births) late neonatal deaths. Factors identified to have statistically significant associations with a higher risk of perinatal or late neonatal mortality include lack of maternal education, maternal height <140 cm, maternal age under 20 or above 35, attending less than four antenatal visits, delivering without a skilled attendant, delivering at a health facility, preterm birth, congenital anomalies and presence of other obstetrical complications. Qualitative participants linked severe mental and emotional distress and inadequate maternal nutrition to heightened neonatal vulnerability. They also highlighted that mistrust in the healthcare system-fueled by language barriers and healthcare workers' use of coercive authority-delayed hospital presentations. They provided examples of cooperative relationships between traditional midwives and healthcare staff that resulted in positive outcomes. CONCLUSION: Structural social forces influence neonatal vulnerability in rural Guatemala. When coupled with healthcare system shortcomings, these forces increase mistrust and mortality. Collaborative relationships among healthcare staff, traditional midwives and families may disrupt this cycle.

Evaluation of a novel approach to community health care delivery in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar.

Despite widespread adoption of community health (CH) systems, there are evidence gaps to support global best practice in remote settings where access to health care is limited and community health workers (CHWs) may be the only available providers. The nongovernmental health organization Pivot partnered with the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) to pilot a new enhanced community health (ECH) model in rural Madagascar, where one CHW provided care at a stationary CH site while additional CHWs provided care via proactive household visits. The program included professionalization of the CHW workforce (i.e., targeted recruitment, extended training, financial compensation) and twice monthly supervision of CHWs. For the first eighteen months of implementation (October 2019-March 2021), we compared utilization and proxy measures of quality of care in the intervention commune (local administrative unit) and five comparison communes with strengthened community health programs under a different model. This allowed for a quasi-experimental study design of the impact of ECH on health outcomes using routinely collected programmatic data. Despite the substantial support provided to other CHWs, the results show statistically significant improvements in nearly every indicator. Sick child visits increased by more than 269.0% in the intervention following ECH implementation. Average per capita monthly under-five visits were 0.25 in the intervention commune and 0.19 in the comparison communes (p<0.01). In the intervention commune, 40.3% of visits were completed at the household via proactive care. CHWs completed all steps of the iCCM protocol in 85.4% of observed visits in the intervention commune (vs 57.7% in the comparison communes, p-value<0.01). This evaluation demonstrates that ECH can improve care access and the quality of service delivery in a rural health district. Further research is needed to assess the generalizability of results and the feasibility of national scale-up as the MoPH continues to define the national community health program.

Assessing child development scores among minority and Indigenous language versus dominant language speakers: a cross-sectional analysis of national Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Multiple studies have highlighted the inequities minority and Indigenous children face when accessing health care. Health and wellbeing are positively impacted when Indigenous children are educated and receive care in their maternal language. However, less is known about the association between minority or Indigenous language use and child development risks and outcomes. In this study, we provide global estimates of development risks and assess the associations between minority or Indigenous language status and early child development using the ten-item Early Child Development Index (ECDI), a tool widely used for global population assessments in children aged 3-4 years. METHODS: We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from 65 UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) containing the ECDI from 2009-19 (waves 4-6). We included individual-level data for children aged 2-4 years (23-60 months) from datasets with ECDI modules, for surveys that captured the language of the respondent, interview, or head of household. The Expanded Graded Intergenerational Disruption Scale was used to classify household languages as dominant versus minority or Indigenous at the country level. Our primary outcome was on-track overall development, defined per UNICEF's guidelines as development being on track for at least three of the four ECDI domains (literacy-numeracy, learning, physical, and socioemotional). We performed logistic regression of pooled, weighted ECDI scores, aggregated by language status and adjusting for the covariables of child sex, child nutritional status (stunting), household wealth, maternal education, developmental support by an adult caregiver, and country-level early child education proportion. Regression analyses were done for all children aged 3-4 years with ECDI results, and separately for children with functional disabilities and ECDI results. FINDINGS: 65 MICS datasets were included. 186 393 children aged 3-4 years had ECDI and language data, corresponding to an estimated represented population of 34 714 992 individuals. Estimated prevalence of on-track overall development as measured by ECDI scores was 65·7% (95% CI 64·2-67·2) for children from a minority or Indigenous language-speaking household, and 76·6% (75·7-77·4) for those from a dominant language-speaking household. After adjustment, dominant language status was associated with increased odds of on-track overall development (adjusted OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·40-1·71), which appeared to be largely driven by significantly increased odds of on-track development in the literacy-numeracy and socioemotional domains. For the represented population aged 2-4 years (n=11 465 601), the estimated prevalence of family-reported functional disability was 3·6% (95% CI 3·0-4·4). For the represented population aged 3-4 years with a functional disability (n=292 691), language status was not associated with on-track overall development (adjusted OR 1·02, 95% CI 0·43-2·45). INTERPRETATION: In a global dataset, children speaking a minority or Indigenous language were less likely to have on-track ECDI scores than those speaking a dominant language. Given the strong positive benefits of speaking an Indigenous language on the health and development of Indigenous children, this disparity is likely to reflect the sociolinguistic marginalisation faced by speakers of minority or Indigenous languages as well as differences in the performance of ECDI in these languages. Global efforts should consider performance of measures and monitor developmental data disaggregated by language status to stimulate efforts to address this disparity. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish, Kaqchikel and K'iche' translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Morbidity and mortality burden of COVID-19 in rural Madagascar: results from a longitudinal cohort and nested seroprevalence study.

INTRODUCTION: Three years into the pandemic, there remains significant uncertainty about the true infection and mortality burden of COVID-19 in the World Health Organization Africa region. High quality, population-representative studies in Africa are rare and tend to be conducted in national capitals or large cities, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 in rural, low-resource settings. Here, we estimated the spatio-temporal morbidity and mortality burden associated with COVID-19 in a rural health district of Madagascar until the first half of 2021. METHODS: We integrated a nested seroprevalence study within a pre-existing longitudinal cohort conducted in a representative sample of 1600 households in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar. Socio-demographic and health information was collected in combination with dried blood spots for about 6500 individuals of all ages, which were analysed to detect IgG and IgM antibodies against four specific proteins of SARS-CoV-2 in a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns in COVID-19 infection history and its associations with several geographic, socio-economic and demographic factors via logistic regressions. RESULTS: Eighteen percent of people had been infected by April-June 2021, with seroprevalence increasing with individuals' age. COVID-19 primarily spread along the only paved road and in major towns during the first epidemic wave, subsequently spreading along secondary roads during the second wave to more remote areas. Wealthier individuals and those with occupations such as commerce and formal employment were at higher risk of being infected in the first wave. Adult mortality increased in 2020, particularly for older men for whom it nearly doubled up to nearly 40 deaths per 1000. Less than 10% of mortality in this period would be directly attributed to COVID-19 deaths if known infection fatality ratios are applied to observed seroprevalence in the district. CONCLUSION: Our study provides a very granular understanding on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in a rural population of sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that the disease burden in these areas may have been substantially underestimated.

Factors associated with recovery from stunting at 24 months of age among infants and young children enrolled in the Pediatric Development Clinic (PDC): A retrospective cohort study in rural Rwanda.

INTRODUCTION: Stunting (low height/length-for-age) in early life is associated with poor long-term health and developmental outcomes. Nutrition interventions provided during the first 1,000 days of life can result in improved catch-up growth and development outcomes. We assessed factors associated with stunting recovery at 24 months of age among infants and young Children enrolled in Pediatric Development Clinics (PDC) who were stunted at 11 months of age. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included infants and young children who enrolled in PDCs in two rural districts in Rwanda between April 2014 and December 2018. Children were included in the study if their PDC enrollment happened within 2 months after birth, were stunted at 11 months of age (considered as baseline) and had a stunting status measured and analyzed at 24 months of age. We defined moderate stunting as length-for-age z-score (LAZ) < -2 and ≥-3 and severe stunting as LAZ <-3 based on the 2006 WHO child growth standards. Stunting recovery at 24 months of age was defined as the child's LAZ changing from <-2 to > -2. We used logistic regression analysis to investigate factors associated with stunting recovery. The factors analyzed included child and mother's socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 179 children who were eligible for this study, 100 (55.9%) were severely stunted at age 11 months. At 24 months of age, 37 (20.7%) children recovered from stunting, while 21 (21.0%) severely stunted children improved to moderate stunting and 20 (25.3%) moderately-stunted children worsened to severe stunting. Early stunting at 6 months of age was associated with lower odds of stunting recovery, with the odds of stunting recovery being reduced by 80% (aOR: 0.2; 95%CI: 0.07-0.81) for severely stunted children and by 60% (aOR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.16-0.97) for moderately stunted children (p = 0.035). Lower odds of stunting recovery were also observed among children who were severely stunted at 11 months of age (aOR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1-0.6, p = 0.004). No other maternal or child factors were statistically significantly associated with recovery from stunting at 24 months in our final adjusted model. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of children who were enrolled in PDC within 2 months after birth and were stunted at 11 months of age recovered from stunting at 24 months of age. Children who were severely stunted at 11 months of age (baseline) and those who were stunted at 6 months of age were less likely to recover from stunting at 24 months of age compared to those with moderate stunting at 11 months and no stunting at 6 months of age, respectively. More focus on prevention and early identification of stunting during pregnancy and early life is important to the healthy growth of a child.

Assessment of aflatoxin exposure, growth faltering and the gut microbiome among children in rural Guatemala: protocol for an observational prospective cohort and bioreactor simulations.

INTRODUCTION: Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is a carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus which grow on maize. Given the high prevalence of child stunting (ie, impaired growth) and other nutritional disorders in low-income and middle-income countries, where maize is consumed, the role of aflatoxin exposure may be significant. Observational reports have demonstrated associations between aflatoxin exposure and impaired child growth; however, most have been cross-sectional and have not assessed seasonal variations in aflatoxin, food preparation and dynamic changes in growth. Biological mechanistic data on how aflatoxin may exert an impact on child growth is missing. This study incorporates a prospective cohort of children from rural Guatemala to assess (1) temporal associations between aflatoxin exposure and child growth and (2) possible mediation of the gut microbiome among aflatoxin exposure, inflammation and child growth. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will prospectively evaluate aflatoxin exposure and height-for-age difference trajectories for 18 months in a cohort of 185 children aged 6-9 months at enrolment. We will assess aflatoxin exposure levels and biomarkers of gut and systemic inflammation. We will examine the faecal microbiome of each child and identify key species and metabolic pathways for differing AFB1 exposure levels and child growth trajectories. In parallel, we will use bioreactors, inoculated with faeces, to investigate the response of the gut microbiome to varying levels of AFB1 exposure. We will monitor key microbial metabolites and AFB1 biotransformation products to study nutrient metabolism and the impact of the gut microbiome on aflatoxin detoxification/metabolism. Finally, we will use path analysis to summarise the effect of aflatoxin exposure and the gut microbiome on child growth. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was obtained from Arizona State University Institutional Review Board (IRB; STUDY00016799) and Wuqu' Kawoq/Maya Health Alliance IRB (WK-2022-003). Findings will be disseminated in scientific presentations and peer-reviewed publications.

Prevalence of Hypertension, Diabetes, and Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Two Indigenous Municipalities in Rural Guatemala: A Population-Representative Survey.

Background: Nearly 50% of Guatemalans are Indigenous Maya, yet few studies have examined the prevalence of modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in Indigenous Maya populations. Therefore, we sought to estimate the prevalence of modifiable CVD risk factors in two Indigenous Maya areas in Guatemala. Methods: We conducted, between June 2018 and October 2019, a population-representative survey of adults aged 18 years and older in two rural Indigenous Maya municipalities in Guatemala. Our primary outcomes were five modifiable CVD risk factors: diabetes, hypertension, obesity, smoking, and alcohol use. We estimated the crude and age-standardized prevalence of each outcome. We also constructed multivariable logistic regression models to assess prevalence over covariates including age, sex, education level, ethnicity, and poverty. Sampling weights adjusted for nonresponse, and appropriate survey commands were used in all analyses. Results: The crude prevalence of diabetes was 12.5% (95% confidence Interval [CI] 9.6% to 16.1%), hypertension 20.3% (95% CI 17.1% to 23.9%), obesity 23.7% (95% CI 19.4% to 28.6%), smoking 10.7% (95% CI 7.8% to 14.5%), and high alcohol use 0.9% (95% CI 0.5% to 1.6%). Age-standardized prevalence of each outcome was similar to the crude prevalence. The prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors increased between the age groups 18-29 years and 50-59 years before decreasing among older age groups. Men had twenty-fold higher smoking prevalence than women (20.5% vs. 1.2%, respectively) and women had nearly double the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity as men (30.1% vs. 17.0%, respectively). Conclusion: There is a substantial prevalence of modifiable CVD risk factors in rural, Indigenous populations in Guatemala, in particular hypertension, diabetes, obesity (among women), and smoking (among men). These findings can help catalyze policy and clinical investments to improve the prevention, management, and control of CVD risk factors in these historically marginalized communities.

Low Body Mass Index at Treatment Initiation and Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of low body mass index (BMI) at initiation of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) treatment on outcomes is uncertain. We evaluated the association between BMI at RR-TB treatment initiation and end-of-treatment outcomes. METHODS: We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of adults aged ≥18 years with RR-TB whose BMI was documented at treatment initiation. We compared odds of any unfavorable treatment outcome, mortality, or failure/recurrence between patients who were underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2) and not underweight. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression, with matching on demographic, clinical, and treatment-related factors. We evaluated effect modification by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status and other variables using likelihood ratio tests. We also estimated cumulative incidence of mortality during treatment stratified by HIV. RESULTS: Overall, 5148 patients were included; 1702 (33%) were underweight at treatment initiation. The median (interquartile range) age was 37 years (29 to 47), and 455 (9%) had HIV. Compared with nonunderweight patients, the aOR among underweight patients was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4-1.9) for any unfavorable outcome, 3.1 (2.4-3.9) for death, and 1.6 (1.2-2.0) for failure/recurrence. Significant effect modification was found for World Health Organization region of treatment. Among HIV-negative patients, 24-month mortality was 14.8% (95% CI, 12.7%-17.3%) for underweight and 5.6% (4.5%-7.0%) for not underweight patients. Among patients with HIV, corresponding values were 33.0% (25.6%-42.6%) and 20.9% (14.1%-27.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Low BMI at treatment initiation for RR-TB is associated with increased odds of unfavorable treatment outcome, particularly mortality.

Integrating an early child development intervention into an existing primary healthcare platform in rural Lesotho: a prospective case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated a novel early childhood development (ECD) programme integrated it into the primary healthcare system. SETTING: The intervention was implemented in a rural district of Lesotho from 2017 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: It targeted primary caregivers during routine postnatal care visits and through village health worker home visits. INTERVENTION: The hybrid care delivery model was adapted from a successful programme in Lima, Peru and focused on parent coaching for knowledge about child development, practicing contingent interaction with the child, parent social support and encouragement. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES: We compared developmental outcomes and caregiving practices in a cohort of 130 caregiver-infant (ages 7-11 months old) dyads who received the ECD intervention, to a control group that did not receive the intervention (n=125) using a case-control study design. Developmental outcomes were evaluated using the Extended Ages and Stages Questionnaire (EASQ), and caregiving practices using two measure sets (ie, UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Parent Ladder). Group comparisons were made using multivariable regression analyses, adjusting for caregiver-level, infant-level and household-level demographic characteristics. RESULTS: At completion, children in the intervention group scored meaningfully higher across all EASQ domains, compared with children in the control group: communication (δ=0.21, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.26), social development (δ=0.27, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.8) and motor development (δ=0.33, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.31). Caregivers in the intervention group also reported significantly higher adjusted odds of engaging in positive caregiving practices in four of six MICS domains, compared with caregivers in the control group-including book reading (adjusted OR (AOR): 3.77, 95% CI 1.94 to 7.29) and naming/counting (AOR: 2.05; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.71). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that integrating an ECD intervention into a rural primary care platform, such as in the Lesothoan context, may be an effective and efficient way to promote ECD outcomes.

Impact of health system strengthening on delivery strategies to improve child immunisation coverage and inequalities in rural Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: To reach global immunisation goals, national programmes need to balance routine immunisation at health facilities with vaccination campaigns and other outreach activities (eg, vaccination weeks), which boost coverage at particular times and help reduce geographical inequalities. However, where routine immunisation is weak, an over-reliance on vaccination campaigns may lead to heterogeneous coverage. Here, we assessed the impact of a health system strengthening (HSS) intervention on the relative contribution of routine immunisation and outreach activities to reach immunisation goals in rural Madagascar. METHODS: We obtained data from health centres in Ifanadiana district on the monthly number of recommended vaccines (BCG, measles, diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (DTP) and polio) delivered to children, during 2014-2018. We also analysed data from a district-representative cohort carried out every 2 years in over 1500 households in 2014-2018. We compared changes inside and outside the HSS catchment in the delivery of recommended vaccines, population-level vaccination coverage, geographical and economic inequalities in coverage, and timeliness of vaccination. The impact of HSS was quantified via mixed-effects logistic regressions. RESULTS: The HSS intervention was associated with a significant increase in immunisation rates (OR between 1.22 for measles and 1.49 for DTP), which diminished over time. Outreach activities were associated with a doubling in immunisation rates, but their effect was smaller in the HSS catchment. Analysis of cohort data revealed that HSS was associated with higher vaccination coverage (OR between 1.18 per year of HSS for measles and 1.43 for BCG), a reduction in economic inequality, and a higher proportion of timely vaccinations. Yet, the lower contribution of outreach activities in the HSS catchment was associated with persistent inequalities in geographical coverage, which prevented achieving international coverage targets. CONCLUSION: Investment in stronger primary care systems can improve vaccination coverage, reduce inequalities and improve the timeliness of vaccination via increases in routine immunisations.

Geographic barriers to care persist at the community healthcare level: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

Geographic distance is a critical barrier to healthcare access, particularly for rural communities with poor transportation infrastructure who rely on non-motorized transportation. There is broad consensus on the importance of community health workers (CHWs) to reduce the effects of geographic isolation on healthcare access. Due to a lack of fine-scale spatial data and individual patient records, little is known about the precise effects of CHWs on removing geographic barriers at this level of the healthcare system. Relying on a high-quality, crowd-sourced dataset that includes all paths and buildings in the area, we explored the impact of geographic distance from CHWs on the use of CHW services for children under 5 years in the rural district of Ifanadiana, southeastern Madagascar from 2018-2021. We then used this analysis to determine key features of an optimal geographic design of the CHW system, specifically optimizing a single CHW location or installing additional CHW sites. We found that consultation rates by CHWs decreased with increasing distance patients travel to the CHW by approximately 28.1% per km. The optimization exercise revealed that the majority of CHW sites (50/80) were already in an optimal location or shared an optimal location with a primary health clinic. Relocating the remaining CHW sites based on a geographic optimum was predicted to increase consultation rates by only 7.4%. On the other hand, adding a second CHW site was predicted to increase consultation rates by 31.5%, with a larger effect in more geographically dispersed catchments. Geographic distance remains a barrier at the level of the CHW, but optimizing CHW site location based on geography alone will not result in large gains in consultation rates. Rather, alternative strategies, such as the creation of additional CHW sites or the implementation of proactive care, should be considered.

Hybrid type 1 effectiveness/implementation trial of the international Guide for Monitoring Child Development: protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Introduction: More than 40% of children under 5 years of age in low-income and middle-income countries are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential. The international Guide for Monitoring Child Development (GMCD) early intervention package is a comprehensive programme to address developmental difficulties using an individualised intervention plan for young children and their families. We will conduct a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation evaluation of the GMCD intervention in rural India and Guatemala. Methods and analysis: Using a cluster-randomised design, 624 children aged 0-24 months in 52 clusters (26 in India, 26 in Guatemala) will be assigned to usual care or the GMCD intervention plus usual care delivered by frontline workers for 12 months. After 12 months, the usual care arm will cross over to the intervention, which will continue for 12 additional months (24 total). The intervention will be delivered using a digital mobile device interface. Effectiveness will be assessed for developmental functioning (Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 3rd edition) and nurturing care (Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment Scale) outcomes. Implementation will be assessed using the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance framework. Explanatory qualitative analysis guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will explore determinants between clusters with high versus low implementation effectiveness. Ethics and dissemination: The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Brigham and Women's Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences and Maya Health Alliance; and by the Indian Council of Medical Research/Health Ministry Screening Committee. Key study findings will be published in international open-access journals. Trial registration number: NCT04665297, CTRI/2020/12/029748. Protocol version: 1.0 (12 November 2020).

Integrating Health Systems and Science to Respond to COVID-19 in a Model District of Rural Madagascar.

There are many outstanding questions about how to control the global COVID-19 pandemic. The information void has been especially stark in the World Health Organization Africa Region, which has low per capita reported cases, low testing rates, low access to therapeutic drugs, and has the longest wait for vaccines. As with all disease, the central challenge in responding to COVID-19 is that it requires integrating complex health systems that incorporate prevention, testing, front line health care, and reliable data to inform policies and their implementation within a relevant timeframe. It requires that the population can rely on the health system, and decision-makers can rely on the data. To understand the process and challenges of such an integrated response in an under-resourced rural African setting, we present the COVID-19 strategy in Ifanadiana District, where a partnership between Malagasy Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and non-governmental organizations integrates prevention, diagnosis, surveillance, and treatment, in the context of a model health system. These efforts touch every level of the health system in the district-community, primary care centers, hospital-including the establishment of the only RT-PCR lab for SARS-CoV-2 testing outside of the capital. Starting in March of 2021, a second wave of COVID-19 occurred in Madagascar, but there remain fewer cases in Ifanadiana than for many other diseases (e.g., malaria). At the Ifanadiana District Hospital, there have been two deaths that are officially attributed to COVID-19. Here, we describe the main components and challenges of this integrated response, the broad epidemiological contours of the epidemic, and how complex data sources can be developed to address many questions of COVID-19 science. Because of data limitations, it still remains unclear how this epidemic will affect rural areas of Madagascar and other developing countries where health system utilization is relatively low and there is limited capacity to diagnose and treat COVID-19 patients. Widespread population based seroprevalence studies are being implemented in Ifanadiana to inform the COVID-19 response strategy as health systems must simultaneously manage perennial and endemic disease threats.

Success at Scale: Outcomes of Community-Based Neurodevelopment Intervention (CASITA) for Children Ages 6-20 months With Risk of Delay in Lima, Peru.

This study is a randomized controlled trial of a 12-week community-based group parenting intervention ("CASITA") in Lima, Peru. CASITA improved neurodevelopment in a pilot study of 60 Peruvian children and subsequently scaled to 3,000 households throughout the district. The objective of this study was to assess intervention effectiveness when implemented at scale. A total of 347 children ages 6-20 months (52.7% male, 100% identified as "mestizo") at risk for developmental difficulties were randomized to immediate or delayed CASITA. At 3 months after enrollment, the immediate arm showed significantly higher overall development, based on the Extended Ages and Stages Questionnaire and Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment scores (Cohen's ds = .36 and .31, respectively). Programs demonstrably effective at scale could help address children's development risks worldwide.

Population Estimates of GFR and Risk Factors for CKD in Guatemala.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an emerging public health priority in Central America. However, data on the prevalence of CKD in Guatemala, Central America's most populous country, are limited, especially for rural communities. METHODS: We conducted a population-representative survey of 2 rural agricultural municipalities in Guatemala. We collected anthropometric data, blood pressure, serum and urine creatinine, glycosylated hemoglobin, and urine albumin. Sociodemographic, health, and exposure data were self-reported. RESULTS: We enrolled 807 individuals (63% of all eligible, 35% male, mean age 39.5 years). An estimated 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-6.6) had CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Most individuals with an eGFR below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had diabetes or hypertension. In multivariable analysis, the important factors associated with risk for an eGFR less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 included a history of diabetes or hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 11.21; 95% CI 3.28-38.24), underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5) (aOR 21.09; 95% CI 2.05-217.0), and an interaction between sugar cane agriculture and poverty (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.19). CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based survey, most observed CKD was associated with diabetes and hypertension. These results emphasize the urgent public health need to address the emerging epidemic of diabetes, hypertension, and CKD in rural Guatemala. In addition, the association between CKD and sugar cane in individuals living in poverty provides some circumstantial evidence for existence of CKD of unknown etiology in the study communities, which requires further investigation.

Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar.

Precision health mapping is a technique that uses spatial relationships between socio-ecological variables and disease to map the spatial distribution of disease, particularly for diseases with strong environmental signatures, such as diarrhoeal disease (DD). While some studies use GPS-tagged location data, other precision health mapping efforts rely heavily on data collected at coarse-spatial scales and may not produce operationally relevant predictions at fine enough spatio-temporal scales to inform local health programmes. We use two fine-scale health datasets collected in a rural district of Madagascar to identify socio-ecological covariates associated with childhood DD. We constructed generalized linear mixed models including socio-demographic, climatic and landcover variables and estimated variable importance via multi-model inference. We find that socio-demographic variables, and not environmental variables, are strong predictors of the spatial distribution of disease risk at both individual and commune-level (cluster of villages) spatial scales. Climatic variables predicted strong seasonality in DD, with the highest incidence in colder, drier months, but did not explain spatial patterns. Interestingly, the occurrence of a national holiday was highly predictive of increased DD incidence, highlighting the need for including cultural factors in modelling efforts. Our findings suggest that precision health mapping efforts that do not include socio-demographic covariates may have reduced explanatory power at the local scale. More research is needed to better define the set of conditions under which the application of precision health mapping can be operationally useful to local public health professionals.

Estimating the local spatio-temporal distribution of malaria from routine health information systems in areas of low health care access and reporting.

BACKGROUND: Reliable surveillance systems are essential for identifying disease outbreaks and allocating resources to ensure universal access to diagnostics and treatment for endemic diseases. Yet, most countries with high disease burdens rely entirely on facility-based passive surveillance systems, which miss the vast majority of cases in rural settings with low access to health care. This is especially true for malaria, for which the World Health Organization estimates that routine surveillance detects only 14% of global cases. The goal of this study was to develop a novel method to obtain accurate estimates of disease spatio-temporal incidence at very local scales from routine passive surveillance, less biased by populations' financial and geographic access to care. METHODS: We use a geographically explicit dataset with residences of the 73,022 malaria cases confirmed at health centers in the Ifanadiana District in Madagascar from 2014 to 2017. Malaria incidence was adjusted to account for underreporting due to stock-outs of rapid diagnostic tests and variable access to healthcare. A benchmark multiplier was combined with a health care utilization index obtained from statistical models of non-malaria patients. Variations to the multiplier and several strategies for pooling neighboring communities together were explored to allow for fine-tuning of the final estimates. Separate analyses were carried out for individuals of all ages and for children under five. Cross-validation criteria were developed based on overall incidence, trends in financial and geographical access to health care, and consistency with geographic distribution in a district-representative cohort. The most plausible sets of estimates were then identified based on these criteria. RESULTS: Passive surveillance was estimated to have missed about 4 in every 5 malaria cases among all individuals and 2 out of every 3 cases among children under five. Adjusted malaria estimates were less biased by differences in populations' financial and geographic access to care. Average adjusted monthly malaria incidence was nearly four times higher during the high transmission season than during the low transmission season. By gathering patient-level data and removing systematic biases in the dataset, the spatial resolution of passive malaria surveillance was improved over ten-fold. Geographic distribution in the adjusted dataset revealed high transmission clusters in low elevation areas in the northeast and southeast of the district that were stable across seasons and transmission years. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding local disease dynamics from routine passive surveillance data can be a key step towards achieving universal access to diagnostics and treatment. Methods presented here could be scaled-up thanks to the increasing availability of e-health disease surveillance platforms for malaria and other diseases across the developing world.

Community-Based Interventions to Reduce Child Stunting in Rural Guatemala: A Quality Improvement Model.

Rural Guatemala has one of the highest rates of chronic child malnutrition (stunting) in the world, with little progress despite considerable efforts to scale up evidence-based nutrition interventions. Recent literature suggests that one factor limiting impact is inadequate supervisory support for frontline workers. Here we describe a community-based quality improvement intervention in a region with a high rate of stunting. The intervention provided audit and feedback support to frontline nutrition workers through electronic worklists, performance dashboards, and one-on-one feedback sessions. We visualized performance indicators and child nutrition outcomes during the improvement intervention using run charts and control charts. In this small community-based sample (125 households at program initiation), over the two-year improvement period, there were marked improvements in the delivery of program components, such as growth monitoring services and micronutrient supplements. The prevalence of child stunting fell from 42.4 to 30.6%, meeting criteria for special cause variation. The mean length/height-for-age Z-score rose from -1.77 to -1.47, also meeting criteria for special cause variation. In conclusion, the addition of structured performance visualization and audit and feedback components to an existing community-based nutrition program improved child health indicators significantly through improving the fidelity of an existing evidence-based nutrition package.